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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, July 28, 2025

[ Sunday, July 27, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, July 29, 2025 ]

DAY 301 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/29/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 317

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 208
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.61 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 16

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-29 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253011600000.320.32FF-32317208443.60911382386 01.8113288646759E-1316 12215212.5DRYL
2025-07-29 00:00:02FORECAST20253011662.67242.31452.4930000.320.32FF30.672379.672208443.6091138238600.360510143895891622215215DRYL
2025-07-28 12:00:01FORECAST20253011663.1442.31452.7270000.320.32FF31.14380.14208443.6091138238600.379999242937761622215215DRYL
2025-07-28 08:00:01FORECAST20253011664.16641.75652.9610000.320.32FF32.166381.166208443.6091138238600.423740853339651622215215DRYL
2025-07-28 04:00:03FORECAST20253011664.77841.86453.3210000.320.32FF32.778381.778208443.6091138238600.450325231613181622215215DRYL
2025-07-28 00:00:02FORECAST20253011665.51642.02653.7710000.320.32FF33.516440.516208443.6091138238600.482670904749661622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253011665.62443.5254.5720000.320.32FF33.624441.624208443.6091138238600.487419139727251622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-27 16:00:01FORECAST20253011665.42643.62854.5270000.320.32FF33.426441.426208443.6091138238600.478715890364441622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-27 12:00:01FORECAST20253011665.53445.48255.5080000.320.32FF33.534441.534208443.6091138238600.483462124797711622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-27 08:00:02FORECAST20253011665.7545.08655.4180000.320.32FF33.75441.75208443.6091138238600.492960954780971622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-27 04:00:03FORECAST20253011665.64244.88855.2650000.320.32FF33.642442.642208443.6091138238600.488210703850611622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-27 00:00:02FORECAST20253011665.33644.43854.8870000.320.32FF33.336498.336208443.6091138238600.474762970694431622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-26 20:00:02FORECAST20253011665.2144.6954.950000.320.32FF33.21496.21208443.6091138238600.469233141014091622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253011665.33645.39255.3640000.320.32FF33.336496.336208443.6091138238600.474762970694431622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-26 12:00:01FORECAST20253011665.01245.3255.1660000.320.32FF33.012496.012208443.6091138238600.460555794256971622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-26 08:00:02FORECAST20253011664.54445.26654.9050000.320.32FF32.544497.544208443.6091138238600.440127571138411622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-26 04:00:03FORECAST20253011664.50844.79854.6530000.320.32FF32.508498.508208443.6091138238600.438562045966911622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-26 00:00:02FORECAST20253011664.81444.56454.6890000.320.32FF32.814555.814208443.6091138238600.451897190432731622415220DRYL
2025-07-25 20:00:01FORECAST20253011664.97644.27654.62600.0003937010.0003937010.320.320393701FF32.976555.976208443.6091138238600.458979988685771622415220DRYL
2025-07-25 16:00:02FORECAST20253011665.58845.01455.30100.0003937010.0003937010.320.320393701FF33.588554.588208443.6091138238600.485836163272921622415220DRYL
2025-07-25 12:00:02FORECAST20253011666.52445.4155.9670000.320.32FF34.524555.524208443.6091138238600.526993108592571632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-25 08:00:02FORECAST20253011666.99245.84256.4170000.320.32FF34.992557.992208443.6091138238600.54749128714971632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-25 04:00:03FORECAST20253011666.59645.03255.8140000.320.32FF34.596557.596208443.6091138238600.530152706827441632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-25 00:00:02FORECAST20253011665.73243.73654.7340000.320.32FF33.732561.732208443.6091138238600.492169158763561622415220DRYL
2025-07-24 20:00:02FORECAST20253011665.44443.19654.320000.320.32FF33.444559.444208443.6091138238600.479506738094021622415220DRYL
2025-07-24 16:00:02FORECAST20253011665.15642.87254.0140000.320.32FF33.156559.156208443.6091138238600.466864967018171622415220DRYL
2025-07-24 12:00:02FORECAST20253011663.98641.68452.8350000.320.32FF31.986555.986208443.6091138238600.41598196419341622415220DRYL
2025-07-24 08:00:02FORECAST20253011664.52643.32253.9240000.320.32FF32.526556.526208443.6091138238600.439344689980541622415220DRYL
2025-07-24 04:00:03FORECAST20253011665.26444.4254.8420000.320.32FF33.264559.264208443.6091138238600.471602403956341622415220DRYL
2025-07-24 00:00:02FORECAST20253011666.36246.14856.2550000.320.32FF34.362562.362208443.6091138238600.519878102176371632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-23 20:00:02FORECAST20253011665.94846.56256.2550000.320.32FF33.948557.948208443.6091138238600.501671855098171632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-23 16:00:02FORECAST20253011665.8446.07655.9580000.320.32FF33.84557.84208443.6091138238600.49692028849911622415220DRYL
2025-07-23 12:00:02FORECAST20253011666.52445.9556.2370000.320.32FF34.524558.524208443.6091138238600.526993108592571632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-23 08:00:03FORECAST20253011666.86646.6756.7680000.320.32FF34.866558.866208443.6091138238600.541982688018991632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-23 04:00:06FORECAST20253011667.65846.99457.3260000.320.32FF35.658562.658208443.6091138238600.576431899725331632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-23 00:00:02FORECAST20253011667.92847.85857.89300.0007874020.0007874020.330.330787402FF35.928555.928208443.6091138238600.588057124576481632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-22 20:00:02FORECAST20253011667.67647.1257.39800.0007874020.0007874020.330.330787402FF35.676554.676208443.6091138238600.577209106287661632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-22 16:00:02FORECAST20253011667.38847.0357.20900.0007874020.0007874020.330.330787402FF35.388555.388208443.6091138238600.564739767752821632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-22 12:00:02FORECAST20253011668.88248.09258.4870000.330.33FF36.882552.882208443.6091138238600.62845344615031632415145DRYM
2025-07-22 08:00:03FORECAST20253011668.28847.40857.8480000.340.34FF36.288551.288208443.6091138238600.603436341609341632415145DRYM
2025-07-22 04:00:04FORECAST20253011667.83847.19257.5150000.340.34FF35.838550.838208443.6091138238600.584190096013791632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-22 00:00:03FORECAST20253011665.62444.99655.31000.010.180.19FF33.624550.624208443.6091138238600.487419139727251622415220DRYL
2025-07-21 20:00:03FORECAST20253011663.73444.47454.104000.010.30.31FF31.734550.734208443.6091138238600.405174945503241622415220DRYL
2025-07-21 16:00:02FORECAST20253011664.50846.59855.553000.010.320.33FF32.508558.508208443.6091138238600.438562045966911622415220DRYL
2025-07-21 12:00:03FORECAST20253011665.55245.89655.7240000.330.33FF33.552564.552208443.6091138238600.484253409976351622415220DRYL
2025-07-21 08:00:03FORECAST20253011667.74846.65257.20000.190.19FF35.748570.748208443.6091138238600.580314899359981632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-21 04:00:04FORECAST20253011666.30845.71656.0120000.20.2FF34.308564.308208443.6091138238600.517504912769711632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-21 00:00:03FORECAST20253011666.72246.02256.3720000.30.3FF34.722564.722208443.6091138238600.535677319113351632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-20 20:00:03FORECAST20253011666.72246.456.5610000.420.42FF34.722563.722208443.6091138238600.535677319113351632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-20 16:00:03FORECAST20253011666.34446.27456.3090000.420.42FF34.344563.344208443.6091138238600.519087113159741632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-20 12:00:02FORECAST20253011665.24646.36455.8050000.330.33FF33.246562.246208443.6091138238600.470812533803751622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 08:00:03FORECAST20253011664.32845.53654.9320000.310.31FF32.328555.328208443.6091138238600.430749309632851622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 04:00:04FORECAST20253011663.30244.9654.1310000.460.46FF31.302552.302208443.6091138238600.386820005149731622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 00:00:03FORECAST20253011663.01443.23253.1230000.240.24FF31.014550.014208443.6091138238600.374719761980481622415220DRYL
2025-07-19 20:00:03FORECAST20253011663.01443.23253.1230000.290.29FF31.014552.014208443.6091138238600.374719761980481622415220DRYL
2025-07-19 16:00:03FORECAST20253011662.45642.76452.610000.420.42FF30.456552.456208443.6091138238600.351632438537641622415220DRYL
2025-07-19 12:00:03FORECAST20253011669.06243.03456.0480000.250.25FF37.062565.062208443.6091138238600.635933869265671632415145DRYM
2025-07-19 08:00:03FORECAST20253011670.93443.21457.0740000.240.24FF38.934570.934208443.6091138238600.710233969594661642415150DRYMH
2025-07-19 04:00:04FORECAST20253011662.54642.2652.4030000.080.08FF30.546568.546208443.6091138238600.355321988948731622415220DRYL
2025-07-19 00:00:03FORECAST20253011650.48645.1447.8130000.620.62FF18.486538.486208443.6091138238600.0443177626124021612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-18 20:00:04FORECAST20253011650.48645.1447.8130000.710.71FF18.486536.486208443.6091138238600.0443177626124021612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-18 16:00:03FORECAST20253011652.30446.05849.1810000.730.73FF20.304532.304208443.6091138238600.0666147655543021612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-18 12:00:03FORECAST20253011655.63454.0554.8420000.480.48FF23.634541.634208443.6091138238600.12849176301031612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-18 08:00:04FORECAST20253011655.63454.0554.8420000.390.39FF23.634547.634208443.6091138238600.12849176301031612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-18 04:00:05FORECAST20253011654.96853.97854.4730000.370.37FF22.968550.968208443.6091138238600.113698371534521612415217.5DRYL