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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 24, 2025

[ Wednesday, July 23, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, July 25, 2025 ]

DAY 297 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/25/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.06°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.70°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.38°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.127
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 571

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.41 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 204
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.97 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.81 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 12

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-25 04:00:02OBSERVATION20252971254.0600850.7000252.380051.8328922222222000.410.41FF22.06008571.06008204441.97359302679 0.810089961086410.126963881212816 12414214DRYL
2025-07-25 00:00:01FORECAST20252971262.38445.73454.0590000.410.41FF30.384579.384204441.2459780199400.420521163654011622415220DRYL
2025-07-24 12:00:01FORECAST20252971261.5245.55453.5370000.410.41FF29.52578.52204441.2459780199400.38280171519741622415220DRYL
2025-07-24 08:00:01FORECAST20252971263.03244.00653.5190000.410.41FF31.032580.032204441.2459780199400.449318666228791622415220DRYL
2025-07-24 04:00:03FORECAST20252971263.1444.97854.0590000.410.41FF31.14580.14204441.2459780199400.454148577006931622415220DRYL
2025-07-24 00:00:01FORECAST20252971264.07645.17654.6260000.410.41FF32.076576.076204441.2459780199400.49621570552551622415220DRYL
2025-07-23 20:00:01FORECAST20252971263.30246.41854.860000.410.41FF31.302574.302204441.2459780199400.461405951689371622415220DRYL
2025-07-23 16:00:01FORECAST20252971263.26646.92255.0940000.410.41FF31.266574.266204441.2459780199400.459792004360971622415220DRYL
2025-07-23 12:00:01FORECAST20252971263.10448.75855.9310000.410.41FF31.104574.104204441.2459780199400.452537817331981622415220DRYL
2025-07-23 08:00:01FORECAST20252971263.08648.54255.8140000.410.41FF31.086574.086204441.2459780199400.451732728609461622415220DRYL
2025-07-23 04:00:04FORECAST20252971263.46448.59656.030000.410.41FF31.464575.464204441.2459780199400.468676201244891622415220DRYL
2025-07-23 00:00:02FORECAST20252971262.70848.03855.373000.010.410.42FF30.708566.708204441.2459780199400.434876731662551622415220DRYL
2025-07-22 20:00:02FORECAST20252971262.47448.07455.274000.010.410.42FF30.474566.474204441.2459780199400.424499081976921622415220DRYL
2025-07-22 16:00:01FORECAST20252971262.67248.18255.427000.010.410.42FF30.672566.672204441.2459780199400.433277060730811622415220DRYL
2025-07-22 12:00:02FORECAST20252971261.93448.63255.283000.010.410.42FF29.934565.934204441.2459780199400.40076086846161622415220DRYL
2025-07-22 08:00:02FORECAST20252971261.80848.54255.175000.020.410.43FF29.808565.808204441.2459780199400.39527087694831622415220DRYL
2025-07-22 04:00:03FORECAST20252971261.89848.43455.166000.020.410.43FF29.898566.898204441.2459780199400.3991902470651622415220DRYL
2025-07-22 00:00:02FORECAST20252971262.40248.52455.463000.020.250.27FF30.402566.402204441.2459780199400.42131611200091622415220DRYL
2025-07-21 20:00:02FORECAST20252971262.76248.50655.634000.030.360.39FF30.762565.762204441.2459780199400.437278229899311622415220DRYL
2025-07-21 16:00:01FORECAST20252971263.46449.60456.534000.050.360.41FF31.464568.464204441.2459780199400.468676201244891622415220DRYL
2025-07-21 12:00:02FORECAST20252971264.09449.08256.588000.060.360.42FF32.094571.094204441.2459780199400.497026608706731622415220DRYL
2025-07-21 08:00:02FORECAST20252971265.13849.65857.398000.040.240.28FF33.138574.138204441.2459780199400.543971251707061632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-21 04:00:03FORECAST20252971265.8448.57857.209000.030.260.29FF33.84571.84204441.2459780199400.575235445164121632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-21 00:00:03FORECAST20252971265.35448.57856.966000.070.320.39FF33.354572.354204441.2459780199400.55362930012631632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-20 20:00:02FORECAST20252971264.4948.50656.498000.070.440.51FF32.49570.49204441.2459780199400.514863653658421632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-20 16:00:03FORECAST20252971264.4948.77656.633000.050.460.51FF32.49570.49204441.2459780199400.514863653658421632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-20 12:00:02FORECAST20252971263.66247.71455.688000.060.360.42FF31.662568.662204441.2459780199400.47757602419371622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 08:00:02FORECAST20252971263.03247.42655.229000.070.330.4FF31.032566.032204441.2459780199400.449318666228791622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 04:00:04FORECAST20252971263.24847.42655.337000.060.490.55FF31.248564.248204441.2459780199400.458985277393931622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 00:00:02FORECAST20252971262.76247.69655.229000.050.280.33FF30.762563.762204441.2459780199400.437278229899311622415220DRYL
2025-07-19 20:00:02FORECAST20252971262.9648.03855.499000.050.330.38FF30.96565.96204441.2459780199400.446102847339991622415220DRYL
2025-07-19 16:00:03FORECAST20252971263.46448.03855.751000.040.470.51FF31.464565.464204441.2459780199400.468676201244891622415220DRYL
2025-07-19 12:00:02FORECAST20252971264.68848.3856.534000.030.310.34FF32.688572.688204441.2459780199400.523773263093751632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-19 08:00:03FORECAST20252971264.56248.34456.453000.040.290.33FF32.562577.562204441.2459780199400.518104604917141632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-19 04:00:04FORECAST20252971264.56248.32656.444000.020.150.17FF32.562582.562204441.2459780199400.518104604917141632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-19 00:00:02FORECAST20252971263.89648.30856.102000.380.330.71FF31.896567.896204441.2459780199400.488108086355671622425240DRYM
2025-07-18 20:00:03FORECAST20252971263.2348.70455.967000.380.420.8FF31.23567.23204441.2459780199400.458178719290031622425240DRYM
2025-07-18 16:00:03FORECAST20252971262.47448.61455.544000.380.440.82FF30.474559.474204441.2459780199400.424499081976921622425240DRYM
2025-07-18 12:00:02FORECAST20252971260.96249.11855.04000.130.440.57FF28.962556.962204441.2459780199400.358995424841461622425240DRYM
2025-07-18 08:00:03FORECAST20252971261.748.27254.986000.120.360.48FF29.7562.7204441.2459780199400.39058160926731622425240DRYM
2025-07-18 04:00:04FORECAST20252971261.89848.18255.04000.120.340.46FF29.898566.898204441.2459780199400.3991902470651622425240DRYM
2025-07-18 00:00:09FORECAST20252971264.05848.50656.282000.110.30.41FF32.058559.058204441.2459780199400.495404817980091622425240DRYM
2025-07-17 20:00:03FORECAST20252971264.05848.90256.48000.110.30.41FF32.058561.058204441.2459780199400.495404817980091622425240DRYM
2025-07-17 16:00:03FORECAST20252971264.05848.88456.471000.140.30.44FF32.058558.058204441.2459780199400.495404817980091622425240DRYM
2025-07-17 12:00:02FORECAST20252971262.52848.5655.544000.10.110.21FF30.528563.528204441.2459780199400.426889556280681622425240DRYM
2025-07-17 08:00:03FORECAST20252971263.69846.99455.346000.110.110.22FF31.698568.698204441.2459780199400.479195506946191622425240DRYM
2025-07-17 04:00:05FORECAST20252971264.34646.70655.526000.110.110.22FF32.346566.346204441.2459780199400.508379018729591632425245DRYM
2025-07-17 00:00:03FORECAST20252971267.65848.63258.14500.0047244120.0347244120.10.134724412FF35.658564.658204441.2459780199400.65358754356091632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-16 20:00:03FORECAST20252971267.65850.52259.0900.0047244120.0347244120.10.134724412FF35.658566.658204441.2459780199400.65358754356091632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-16 16:00:02FORECAST20252971264.2247.9356.07500.0047244120.0347244120.10.134724412FF32.22556.22204441.2459780199400.50270308733731632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-16 12:00:03FORECAST20252971261.80845.5953.699000.110.120.23FF29.808554.808204441.2459780199400.39527087694831622425240DRYM
2025-07-16 08:00:02FORECAST20252971261.80845.5953.699000.110.120.23FF29.808550.808204441.2459780199400.39527087694831622425240DRYM
2025-07-16 04:00:04FORECAST20252971261.10643.91652.511000.110.10.21FF29.106544.106204441.2459780199400.365091019352541622425240DRYM
2025-07-16 00:00:03FORECAST20252971260.8944.99652.9430000.10.1FF28.89551.89204441.2459780199400.355960919109161622415220DRYL
2025-07-15 20:00:03FORECAST20252971260.8944.99652.9430000.10.1FF28.89556.89204441.2459780199400.355960919109161622415220DRYL
2025-07-15 16:00:03FORECAST20252971261.41245.03253.2220000.10.1FF29.412558.412204441.2459780199400.378156146691021622415220DRYL
2025-07-15 12:00:03FORECAST20252971277.23445.48261.358000.030.160.19FF45.234567.234204441.2459780199400.930208056910431652415155DRYH
2025-07-15 08:00:03FORECAST20252971277.23445.48261.358000.030.160.19FF45.234573.234204441.2459780199400.930208056910431652415155DRYH
2025-07-15 04:00:05FORECAST20252971273.61643.30458.46000.030.110.14FF41.616562.616204441.2459780199400.857254946247161652415155DRYH
2025-07-15 00:00:03FORECAST20252971257.36248.39852.880000.10.1FF25.362561.362204441.2459780199400.221323296091831612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-14 20:00:03FORECAST20252971257.36248.0252.6910000.10.1FF25.362555.362204441.2459780199400.221323296091831612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-14 16:00:03FORECAST20252971257.8349.6453.7350000.090.09FF25.83558.83204441.2459780199400.237345339591961612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-14 12:00:03FORECAST20252971247.06638.64242.854000.020.090.11FF15.066542.066204441.2459780199400.0266145224103021612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-14 08:00:03FORECAST20252971247.06638.64242.854000.020.090.11FF15.066538.066204441.2459780199400.0266145224103021612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-14 04:00:05FORECAST20252971246.86845.48246.175000.370.090.46FF14.868534.868204441.2459780199400.0252601440095131612425235DRYL