MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 22, 2025

[ Monday, July 21, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, July 23, 2025 ]

DAY 295 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/23/2025 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.27°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.69°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.98°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.555
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 33
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 448

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.32 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.11 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.43 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 202
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 440.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.88 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 10

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 32.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-23 04:00:04OBSERVATION20252951065.2699444.6954.979972.006229583333300.320.110.43FF33.26994448.26994202440.85319705208 0.884452725832970.5545140056385116 32324232DRYL
2025-07-23 00:00:01FORECAST20252951057.95641.50449.7300.0059055150.3259055150.110.435905515FF25.956440.956202440.050871801700.261075616211631622325235DRYL
2025-07-22 12:00:01FORECAST20252951057.68641.50449.59500.0145669370.3345669370.110.444566937FF25.686440.686202440.050871801700.251835693268351622325235DRYL
2025-07-22 08:00:01FORECAST20252951057.99241.28849.6400.0185039470.3385039470.110.448503947FF25.992440.992202440.050871801700.262320624483431622325235DRYL
2025-07-22 04:00:03FORECAST20252951059.05442.09850.57600.0181102460.3381102460.110.448110246FF27.054442.054202440.050871801700.300361518345761622325235DRYL
2025-07-22 00:00:01FORECAST20252951059.4542.38650.91800.0224409570.1824409570.110.292440957FF27.45440.45202440.050871801700.315157127891141622325235DRYL
2025-07-21 20:00:02FORECAST20252951058.31642.54850.43200.031496080.301496080.110.41149608FF26.316440.316202440.050871801700.273660705519441622325235DRYL
2025-07-21 16:00:01FORECAST20252951059.25244.09651.67400.047244120.317244120.110.42724412FF27.252441.252202440.050871801700.307720269660221622325235DRYL
2025-07-21 12:00:02FORECAST20252951059.84643.89851.87200.0570866450.3270866450.110.437086645FF27.846441.846202440.050871801700.330255115024031622325235DRYL
2025-07-21 08:00:02FORECAST20252951060.2643.8852.0700.0385826980.1885826980.110.298582698FF28.26443.26202440.050871801700.346339855151491622325235DRYL
2025-07-21 04:00:03FORECAST20252951060.42243.5251.97100.0291338740.1991338740.110.309133874FF28.422441.422202440.050871801700.352712080327161622325235DRYL
2025-07-21 00:00:02FORECAST20252951059.59443.2551.42200.0681102730.2981102730.110.408110273FF27.594441.594202440.050871801700.320613393193081622325235DRYL
2025-07-20 20:00:02FORECAST20252951059.52243.19651.35900.0744094890.4244094890.110.534409489FF27.522440.522202440.050871801700.317880321969581622325235DRYL
2025-07-20 16:00:02FORECAST20252951059.03643.01651.02600.0539370370.4239370370.110.533937037FF27.036441.036202440.050871801700.299696497525281622325235DRYL
2025-07-20 12:00:01FORECAST20252951058.78442.76450.77400.0602362530.3302362530.110.440236253FF26.784440.784202440.050871801700.290457042367911622325235DRYL
2025-07-20 08:00:02FORECAST20252951058.47842.60250.5400.0720472830.3120472830.110.422047283FF26.478439.478202440.050871801700.279420196510031622325235DRYL
2025-07-20 04:00:03FORECAST20252951058.71242.33250.52200.0641732630.4641732630.110.574173263FF26.712437.712202440.050871801700.287841873277041622325235DRYL
2025-07-20 00:00:02FORECAST20252951059.34242.15250.74700.0496063260.2396063260.110.349606326FF27.342438.342202440.050871801700.311091124525931622325235DRYL
2025-07-19 20:00:02FORECAST20252951059.93642.5351.23300.0452756150.2852756150.110.395275615FF27.936438.936202440.050871801700.333726499083111622325235DRYL
2025-07-19 16:00:02FORECAST20252951059.79242.851.29600.0374015950.4174015950.110.527401595FF27.792437.792202440.050871801700.328179247014031622325235DRYL
2025-07-19 12:00:02FORECAST20252951061.68244.00652.84400.0303149770.2503149770.110.360314977FF29.682442.682202440.050871801700.40356293954551622325235DRYL
2025-07-19 08:00:02FORECAST20252951062.2444.74453.49200.0374015950.2374015950.110.347401595FF30.24447.24202440.050871801700.426673634692021622325235DRYL
2025-07-19 04:00:03FORECAST20252951063.03245.64454.33800.0161417410.0761417410.110.186141741FF31.032451.032202440.050871801700.459893834968371622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-19 00:00:02FORECAST20252951059.97245.44652.70900.3826773720.6226773720.110.732677372FF27.972438.972202440.050871801700.335119066177541622335252.5DRYMH
2025-07-18 20:00:02FORECAST20252951059.70243.95251.82700.3814962690.7114962690.110.821496269FF27.702439.702202440.050871801700.324731247172191622335252.5DRYMH
2025-07-18 16:00:02FORECAST20252951056.76843.41250.0900.381889970.731889970.110.84188997FF24.768433.768202440.050871801700.221754382007491612335245DRYM
2025-07-18 12:00:02FORECAST20252951058.31643.73651.02600.1326772370.4826772370.110.592677237FF26.316433.316202440.050871801700.273660705519441622325235DRYL
2025-07-18 08:00:02FORECAST20252951061.2544.52852.88900.1192914030.3892914030.110.499291403FF29.25436.25202440.050871801700.385894863666081622325235DRYL
2025-07-18 04:00:04FORECAST20252951061.86245.66253.76200.1192914030.3692914030.110.479291403FF29.862439.862202440.050871801700.41098540068531622325235DRYL
2025-07-18 00:00:06FORECAST20252951058.76644.65451.7100.0763779940.2863779940.110.396377994FF26.766430.766202440.050871801700.28980220938361622325235DRYL
2025-07-17 20:00:02FORECAST20252951058.9144.97851.94400.0763779940.2863779940.110.396377994FF26.91432.91202440.050871801700.295060128933481622325235DRYL
2025-07-17 16:00:02FORECAST20252951058.26244.65451.45800.1185040010.3285040010.110.438504001FF26.262430.262202440.050871801700.271753995735291622325235DRYL
2025-07-17 12:00:02FORECAST20252951060.11646.09453.10500.0500000270.0700000270.110.180000027FF28.116437.116202440.050871801700.340711852410221622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-17 08:00:03FORECAST20252951060.90845.24853.07800.0527559340.0727559340.110.182755934FF28.908440.908202440.050871801700.372071605284361622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-17 04:00:04FORECAST20252951059.95444.31252.13300.0578740470.0778740470.110.187874047FF27.954437.954202440.050871801700.334422498021941622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-17 00:00:03FORECAST20252951059.3641.70250.53100.0122047310.0222047310.110.132204731FF27.36432.36202440.050871801700.311767211899171622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-16 20:00:02FORECAST20252951059.9943.12451.55700.0122047310.0222047310.110.132204731FF27.99431.99202440.050871801700.335816201470011622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-16 16:00:02FORECAST20252951058.56842.15250.3600.0122047310.0222047310.110.132204731FF26.568426.568202440.050871801700.282645125190011622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-16 12:00:03FORECAST20252951060.78241.32451.05300.0082677210.0382677210.110.148267721FF28.782429.782202440.050871801700.367019029216751622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-16 08:00:02FORECAST20252951058.89241.28850.0900.0082677210.0382677210.110.148267721FF26.892427.892202440.050871801700.294400493804411622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-16 04:00:04FORECAST20252951057.8340.04648.93800.0082677210.0182677210.110.128267721FF25.83423.83202440.050871801700.256742100465751622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-16 00:00:02FORECAST20252951059.68440.35250.01800.0047244120.0047244120.120.124724412FF27.684428.684202440.050871801700.324043432330431622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 20:00:03FORECAST20252951062.22240.65851.4400.0047244120.0047244120.120.124724412FF30.222434.222202440.050871801700.425923731714821622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 16:00:02FORECAST20252951060.65641.05450.85500.0047244120.0047244120.120.124724412FF28.656434.656202440.050871801700.361989372364491622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 12:00:03FORECAST20252951059.25241.9950.62100.0244094620.0944094620.110.204409462FF27.252430.252202440.050871801700.307720269660221622325235DRYL
2025-07-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025295105941.19850.09900.0244094620.0944094620.110.204409462FF27436202440.050871801700.298368459008861622325235DRYL
2025-07-15 04:00:04FORECAST20252951056.78640.96448.87500.0244094620.0444094620.110.154409462FF24.786430.786202440.050871801700.222323808392471612315215DRYL
2025-07-15 00:00:03FORECAST20252951057.30842.74650.02700.0015748040.0115748040.110.121574804FF25.308440.308202440.050871801700.239195256204051612315215DRYL
2025-07-14 20:00:03FORECAST20252951055.56242.20648.88400.0023622060.0123622060.110.122362206FF23.562434.562202440.050871801700.185536290237691612315215DRYL
2025-07-14 16:00:02FORECAST20252951056.49842.18849.34300.0023622060.0023622060.110.112362206FF24.498437.498202440.050871801700.213313362440171612315215DRYL
2025-07-14 12:00:03FORECAST20252951059.64843.86251.75500.0240157610.0240157610.110.134015761FF27.648432.648202440.050871801700.322669603728681622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-14 08:00:03FORECAST20252951059.64843.86251.75500.0240157610.0240157610.110.134015761FF27.648428.648202440.050871801700.322669603728681622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-14 04:00:04FORECAST20252951058.3743.26850.81900.3381891590.3381891590.110.448189159FF26.37425.37202440.050871801700.275574002520281622325235DRYL
2025-07-14 00:00:03FORECAST20252951059.5443.84451.692000.010.120.13FF27.54447.54202440.050871801700.318562668624081622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-13 20:00:03FORECAST20252951059.50443.77251.638000.010.120.13FF27.504449.504202440.050871801700.317198592644491622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-13 16:00:02FORECAST20252951056.49842.72849.613000.010.120.13FF24.498450.498202440.050871801700.213313362440171612315215DRYL
2025-07-13 12:00:03FORECAST20252951068.41445.57256.99300.0216535550.0316535550.110.141653555FF36.414465.414202440.050871801700.681225073425361632315140DRYM
2025-07-13 08:00:03FORECAST20252951068.41445.57256.99300.0204724520.0404724520.110.150472452FF36.414469.414202440.050871801700.681225073425361632315140DRYM
2025-07-13 04:00:07FORECAST20252951064.445.6855.0400.0204724520.0304724520.110.140472452FF32.4464.4202440.050871801700.517805031467431632315220DRYL
2025-07-13 00:00:03FORECAST20252951051.8944.09647.9930000.110.11FF19.89455.89202440.050871801700.0993934884222971612315215DRYL
2025-07-12 20:00:03FORECAST20252951050.46844.09647.2820000.110.11FF18.468462.468202440.050871801700.075442573829711612315215DRYL
2025-07-12 16:00:03FORECAST20252951054.15849.76651.9620000.110.11FF22.158467.158202440.050871801700.148303137093761612315215DRYL
2025-07-12 12:00:03FORECAST20252951048.70446.43647.570000.110.11FF16.704478.704202440.050871801700.0521476386972941612315215DRYL
2025-07-12 08:00:03FORECAST20252951048.70446.43647.570000.110.11FF16.704474.704202440.050871801700.0521476386972941612315215DRYL
2025-07-12 04:00:06FORECAST20252951041.28838.49839.893000.020.110.13FF9.288463.288202440.050871801700.00783461532144381612315215DRYL