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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, July 20, 2025

[ Saturday, July 19, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, July 21, 2025 ]

DAY 293 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/21/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.32°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.55°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.44°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.109
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 327

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.11 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.11 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 200
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 439.28 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.47 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 8

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-21 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025293852.3200240.5546.435011.0728325000.110.11FF20.32002327.32002200439.27947769394 0.471273300253080.1088954123999116 12214210DRYL
2025-07-21 00:00:02FORECAST2025293853.83441.55847.69600.0074803190.0074803190.110.117480319FF21.834328.834200438.8466481739300.142623289008791612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-20 12:00:01FORECAST2025293855.34641.39648.37100.0657480670.0657480670.110.175748067FF23.346330.346200438.8466481739300.182709862801181612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-20 08:00:01FORECAST2025293852.55640.5546.55300.0409449040.0409449040.110.150944904FF20.556327.556200438.8466481739300.11373844460171612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-20 04:00:03FORECAST2025293852.37640.49646.43600.0503937280.0503937280.110.160393728FF20.376327.376200438.8466481739300.110030700375571612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-20 00:00:01FORECAST2025293852.55639.95646.25600.0307086780.0307086780.110.140708678FF20.556324.556200438.8466481739300.11373844460171612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025293852.35839.63245.99500.0291338740.0291338740.110.139133874FF20.358324.358200438.8466481739300.109664736416231612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025293853.02439.70446.36400.0334645850.0334645850.110.143464585FF21.024325.024200438.8466481739300.123791551062841612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-19 12:00:01FORECAST2025293852.64639.90246.27400.0188976480.0188976480.110.128897648FF20.646324.646200438.8466481739300.115625247024071612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025293854.53641.03647.78600.0125984320.0125984320.110.122598432FF22.536327.536200438.8466481739300.160433358249051612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025293855.05841.34248.200.0098425250.0098425250.110.119842525FF23.058329.058200438.8466481739300.174577891530851612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025293855.00440.74847.8760000.110.11FF23.004323.004200438.8466481739300.173079069609751612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025293855.88640.5548.21800.0019685050.0019685050.110.111968505FF23.886324.886200438.8466481739300.1985810266851612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025293854.51840.02847.27300.0051181130.0051181130.110.115118113FF22.518323.518200438.8466481739300.159959322685851612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025293853.72639.97446.8500.0074803190.0074803190.110.117480319FF21.726321.726200438.8466481739300.140006451112491612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025293853.85239.9246.88600.0110236280.0110236280.110.121023628FF21.852322.852200438.8466481739300.143062614284861612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025293855.4939.7447.6150000.110.11FF23.49324.49200438.8466481739300.186862904544991612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-18 00:00:04FORECAST2025293854.73439.90247.31800.0181102460.0181102460.110.128110246FF22.734318.734200438.8466481739300.165708098930731612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025293854.96840.3747.66900.0181102460.0181102460.110.128110246FF22.968320.968200438.8466481739300.172084411604521612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-17 16:00:01FORECAST2025293854.71640.35247.53400.0185039470.0185039470.110.128503947FF22.716318.716200438.8466481739300.165224006304051612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025293855.47239.77647.6240000.110.11FF23.472320.472200438.8466481739300.186340609846931612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025293856.49840.20848.3530000.110.11FF24.498323.498200438.8466481739300.217537297931311612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025293857.03839.99248.5150000.110.11FF25.038323.038200438.8466481739300.235096954731231612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025293857.05640.02848.5420000.110.11FF25.056319.056200438.8466481739300.235695433450881612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025293857.23640.44248.8390000.110.11FF25.236317.236200438.8466481739300.24172612130441612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025293856.01239.81247.9120000.110.11FF24.012314.012200438.8466481739300.202400329947121612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025293854.84241.30648.07400.0055118140.0055118140.110.115511814FF22.842314.842200438.8466481739300.168631840378321612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025293854.89642.40448.6500.0055118140.0055118140.110.115511814FF22.896317.896200438.8466481739300.170106038837511612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025293855.32841.37848.3530000.110.11FF23.328315.328200438.8466481739300.182194805756721612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025293856.98441.4549.217000.010.110.12FF24.984315.984200438.8466481739300.233306556636561612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025293857.7440.04648.893000.010.110.12FF25.74318.74200438.8466481739300.259047875271281622215215DRYL
2025-07-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025293857.61439.50648.56000.010.110.12FF25.614319.614200438.8466481739300.254658166919951622215215DRYL
2025-07-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025293855.0440.26247.65100.055118140.055118140.110.16511814FF23.04316.04200438.8466481739300.174077373194771612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025293855.2240.8248.0200.055118140.055118140.110.16511814FF23.22318.22200438.8466481739300.179123508763221612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-15 04:00:04FORECAST2025293855.52640.44247.98400.0070866180.0070866180.110.117086618FF23.526316.526200438.8466481739300.187910202350051612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025293856.71441.43249.07300.0066929170.0066929170.110.116692917FF24.714321.714200438.8466481739300.224468812007481612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-14 20:00:03FORECAST2025293856.06640.58648.32600.0074803190.0074803190.110.117480319FF24.066319.066200438.8466481739300.204050503029161612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025293857.14639.99248.56900.0043307110.0043307110.110.114330711FF25.146321.146200438.8466481739300.238700373279891612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-14 12:00:03FORECAST2025293852.28638.91245.59900.0031496080.0031496080.110.113149608FF20.286313.286200438.8466481739300.108209592704111612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025293852.41240.146.25600.0031496080.0031496080.110.113149608FF20.412312.412200438.8466481739300.110765246785011612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025293851.29639.57845.43700.0031496080.0031496080.110.113149608FF19.296310.296200438.8466481739300.0895900637321541612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025293858.65841.03649.84700.0102362260.0202362260.110.130236226FF26.658333.658200438.8466481739300.292167620176221622215215DRYL
2025-07-13 20:00:03FORECAST2025293859.07240.6449.85600.0102362260.0202362260.110.130236226FF27.072336.072200438.8466481739300.30772159649221622215215DRYL
2025-07-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025293857.52440.9149.21700.0102362260.0202362260.110.130236226FF25.524338.524200438.8466481739300.251546645922131622215215DRYL
2025-07-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025293857.48842.33249.910000.110.11FF25.488341.488200438.8466481739300.250307677129051622215215DRYL
2025-07-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025293858.62243.66451.1430000.110.11FF26.622344.622200438.8466481739300.290832545533531622215215DRYL
2025-07-13 04:00:07FORECAST2025293858.69444.99651.8450000.110.11FF26.694344.694200438.8466481739300.293505536670321622215215DRYL
2025-07-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025293862.16842.65652.4120000.110.11FF30.168343.168200438.8466481739300.433399462962521622215215DRYL
2025-07-12 20:00:03FORECAST2025293862.20441.93652.070000.110.11FF30.204350.204200438.8466481739300.434930384869611622215215DRYL
2025-07-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025293862.20441.84652.0250000.110.11FF30.204350.204200438.8466481739300.434930384869611622215215DRYL
2025-07-12 12:00:03FORECAST2025293870.17849.17259.6750000.110.11FF38.178366.178200438.8466481739300.757395920016541642215140DRYM
2025-07-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025293869.11651.69260.4040000.110.11FF37.116361.116200438.8466481739300.720107955177911642215140DRYM
2025-07-12 04:00:06FORECAST2025293867.3751.47659.4230000.110.11FF35.37361.37200438.8466481739300.653379338373451632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025293862.27648.72255.49900.0141732360.0141732360.110.124173236FF30.276352.276200438.8466481739300.437995134213891622215215DRYL
2025-07-11 20:00:04FORECAST2025293862.27648.72255.49900.0141732360.0141732360.110.124173236FF30.276352.276200438.8466481739300.437995134213891622215215DRYL
2025-07-11 16:00:03FORECAST2025293861.55648.39854.97700.0141732360.0141732360.110.124173236FF29.556345.556200438.8466481739300.407544767216641622215215DRYL
2025-07-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025293863.0548.68655.8680000.120.12FF31.05336.05200438.8466481739300.471138836074981622215215DRYL
2025-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025293863.548.66856.0840000.120.12FF31.5343.5200438.8466481739300.490515811889631622215215DRYL
2025-07-11 04:00:05FORECAST2025293863.78849.53256.66000.010.120.13FF31.788324.788200438.8466481739300.502931726122551632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-11 00:00:03FORECAST2025293849.08239.50644.2940000.050.05FF17.082325.082200438.8466481739300.0566917257406551612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2025293849.15439.50644.330000.060.06FF17.154327.154200438.8466481739300.0575865583630051612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-10 16:00:03FORECAST2025293848.90239.23644.06900.031496080.041496080.060.10149608FF16.902324.902200438.8466481739300.0545023895087541612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025293840.74838.98439.866000.030.050.08FF8.748304.748200438.8466481739300.00641095229042531612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-10 08:00:04FORECAST2025293840.74838.98439.866000.050.050.1FF8.748302.748200438.8466481739300.00641095229042531612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-10 04:00:05FORECAST2025293848.9247.06647.9930000.050.05FF16.92325.92200438.8466481739300.0547182783698491612215212.5DRYL