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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, July 19, 2025

[ Friday, July 18, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, July 20, 2025 ]

DAY 292 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/20/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.14°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.18°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.16°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.306
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 275

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.11 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.11 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 199
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 438.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.52 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 7

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-20 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025292758.1399640.1799249.159941.1778191666667000.110.11FF26.13996275.13996199438.71802711848 0.516730501102330.3060660274693516 22214212DRYL
2025-07-20 00:00:01FORECAST2025292754.98639.79447.390000.110.11FF22.986271.986199438.2410956158100.193207975420431612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-19 12:00:01FORECAST2025292754.540.08247.2910000.110.11FF22.5271.5199438.2410956158100.178398261836091612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025292756.40841.14448.7760000.110.11FF24.408273.408199438.2410956158100.240650330101511612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025292756.87641.05448.9650000.110.11FF24.876273.876199438.2410956158100.257546375955021622215215DRYL
2025-07-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025292756.78640.85648.8210000.110.11FF24.786267.786199438.2410956158100.254250044950131622215215DRYL
2025-07-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025292756.49840.53248.5150000.110.11FF24.498269.498199438.2410956158100.243852066347051612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025292755.63440.38848.0110000.110.11FF23.634268.634199438.2410956158100.214080439820111612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-18 12:00:01FORECAST2025292755.05840.35247.7050000.110.11FF23.058268.058199438.2410956158100.195463989572691612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025292755.83240.74848.290000.110.11FF23.832268.832199438.2410956158100.220710252737331612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025292756.3940.74848.5690000.110.11FF24.39269.39199438.2410956158100.240012735623541612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-18 00:00:03FORECAST2025292755.41840.1947.8040000.110.11FF23.418264.418199438.2410956158100.206981577997421612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025292755.65240.35248.0020000.110.11FF23.652265.652199438.2410956158100.214678327457281612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-17 16:00:01FORECAST2025292754.48239.9247.2010000.110.11FF22.482264.482199438.2410956158100.177863820299761612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025292755.20240.15447.6780000.110.11FF23.202265.202199438.2410956158100.200023652597471612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025292755.77839.97447.8760000.110.11FF23.778266.778199438.2410956158100.218890575052451612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025292756.04840.11848.0830000.110.11FF24.048266.048199438.2410956158100.22807485291351612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025292756.01240.26248.1370000.110.11FF24.012262.012199438.2410956158100.226837923204611612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025292755.2239.95647.5880000.110.11FF23.22260.22199438.2410956158100.200598063413621612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 16:00:01FORECAST2025292754.8639.63247.2460000.110.11FF22.86257.86199438.2410956158100.189298306478251612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025292754.46441.57648.020000.110.11FF22.464260.464199438.2410956158100.177330387324021612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025292754.8641.86448.3620000.110.11FF22.86262.86199438.2410956158100.189298306478251612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025292754.69841.4548.0740000.110.11FF22.698259.698199438.2410956158100.184343581183961612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025292755.54441.68448.61400.0122047310.0122047310.110.122204731FF23.544258.544199438.2410956158100.211105545354491612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025292754.98641.19848.09200.0141732360.0141732360.110.124173236FF22.986260.986199438.2410956158100.193207975420431612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025292755.8542.33249.09100.0145669370.0145669370.110.124566937FF23.85261.85199438.2410956158100.221318728401571612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025292755.70641.77448.7400.0003937010.0003937010.110.110393701FF23.706260.706199438.2410956158100.216477791096661612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025292757.68643.28650.48600.0003937010.0003937010.110.110393701FF25.686262.686199438.2410956158100.288179104484071622215215DRYL
2025-07-15 04:00:04FORECAST2025292755.61643.1649.38800.0003937010.0003937010.110.110393701FF23.616260.616199438.2410956158100.21348352053881612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025292756.91242.36849.640000.110.11FF24.912264.912199438.2410956158100.258871087498171622215215DRYL
2025-07-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025292756.2141.66648.9380000.110.11FF24.21263.21199438.2410956158100.233687648218991612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025292756.08442.45849.2710000.110.11FF24.084264.084199438.2410956158100.229315560181011612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-14 12:00:03FORECAST2025292754.4143.17848.79400.0003937010.0003937010.110.110393701FF22.41261.41199438.2410956158100.175736142983641612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025292754.28444.02449.15400.0003937010.0003937010.110.110393701FF22.284260.284199438.2410956158100.172051595846691612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025292753.54643.57448.5600.0027559070.0027559070.110.112755907FF21.546258.546199438.2410956158100.15146771137851612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025292755.70643.98849.84700.0074803190.0074803190.110.117480319FF23.706274.706199438.2410956158100.216477791096661612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-13 20:00:03FORECAST2025292756.8444.72650.78300.0074803190.0074803190.110.117480319FF24.84276.84199438.2410956158100.256225189015311622215215DRYL
2025-07-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025292757.07444.58250.82800.0074803190.0074803190.110.117480319FF25.074281.074199438.2410956158100.264875558567531622215215DRYL
2025-07-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025292760.87246.8553.8610000.110.11FF28.872283.872199438.2410956158100.422294002278081622215215DRYL
2025-07-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025292761.8847.31854.5990000.110.11FF29.88285.88199438.2410956158100.467608061419941622215215DRYL
2025-07-13 04:00:06FORECAST2025292761.75448.3855.0670000.110.11FF29.754285.754199438.2410956158100.461908407913531622215215DRYL
2025-07-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025292759.23445.4152.3220000.110.11FF27.234281.234199438.2410956158100.351049243467971622215215DRYL
2025-07-12 20:00:03FORECAST2025292763.1444.56453.8520000.110.11FF31.14288.14199438.2410956158100.524776874788741632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025292763.71644.97854.3470000.110.11FF31.716287.716199438.2410956158100.550812569316951632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-12 12:00:03FORECAST2025292770.03453.16861.6010000.110.11FF38.034296.034199438.2410956158100.801499506876511642215140DRYM
2025-07-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025292768.88249.44259.1620000.110.11FF36.882291.882199438.2410956158100.762946332524521642215140DRYM
2025-07-12 04:00:06FORECAST2025292770.10649.56859.8370000.110.11FF38.106294.106199438.2410956158100.803776727483031642215140DRYM
2025-07-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025292765.69648.66857.1820000.110.11FF33.696289.696199438.2410956158100.637995575140241632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-11 20:00:04FORECAST2025292765.69650.73858.2170000.110.11FF33.696289.696199438.2410956158100.637995575140241632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-11 16:00:03FORECAST2025292765.0349.40657.2180000.110.11FF33.03284.03199438.2410956158100.609222145550881632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025292764.27447.42655.850000.120.12FF32.274273.274199438.2410956158100.575828776670491632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025292764.65250.4557.5510000.120.12FF32.652279.652199438.2410956158100.592609582296271632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-11 04:00:05FORECAST2025292759.66649.5554.608000.010.120.13FF27.666260.666199438.2410956158100.369449246138731622215215DRYL
2025-07-11 00:00:03FORECAST2025292759.66648.30853.9870000.050.05FF27.666275.666199438.2410956158100.369449246138731622215215DRYL
2025-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2025292759.68448.43454.0590000.060.06FF27.684277.684199438.2410956158100.37022278415461622215215DRYL
2025-07-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025292757.2948.30852.79900.0106299270.0106299270.060.070629927FF25.29276.29199438.2410956158100.272990035915421622215215DRYL
2025-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025292753.9640.89247.42600.0267716680.0267716680.050.076771668FF21.96263.96199438.2410956158100.162804821181631612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025292753.9640.89247.42600.0507874290.0507874290.050.100787429FF21.96261.96199438.2410956158100.162804821181631612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-10 04:00:05FORECAST2025292769.67441.46855.5710000.050.05FF37.674276.674199438.2410956158100.789876786180861642215140DRYM
2025-07-10 00:00:03FORECAST2025292743.17836.10439.6410000.040.04FF11.178269.178199438.2410956158100.0133984993894581612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-09 20:00:03FORECAST2025292743.17836.10439.6410000.060.06FF11.178271.178199438.2410956158100.0133984993894581612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025292747.0341.82844.4290000.070.07FF15.03276.03199438.2410956158100.0380612327747641612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025292745.91442.02643.970000.070.07FF13.914285.914199438.2410956158100.0286340520347451612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025292745.91442.02643.970000.070.07FF13.914284.914199438.2410956158100.0286340520347451612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-09 04:00:05FORECAST2025292738.71437.65238.1830000.080.08FF6.714269.714199438.2410956158100.00320462318934941612215212.5DRYL