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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 8, 2025

[ Saturday, June 7, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, June 9, 2025 ]

DAY 251 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/09/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 74.61°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 59.53°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 67.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.983
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 43
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 482

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 59 in
SWE DAY: 158
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 437.47 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 26.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -34

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 1
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-09 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025251-3474.6099659.5299267.0699459.43393625000.320.32FF42.60996481.60996158437.46682608964 26.0003754533020.9830176761633916 5131119DRYL
2025-06-09 00:00:01FORECAST2025251-3468.32450.1859.25255.4721632000.320.32FF36.324475.324158435.8442523252724.1772234947690.93727979265849165131119DRYL
2025-06-08 12:00:01FORECAST2025251-3468.28849.9159.09959.4552384000.320.32FF36.288475.288158437.475506486526.0102105323160.93686397344522165131119DRYL
2025-06-08 08:00:01FORECAST2025251-3469.9085059.95459.3933448000.320.32FF37.908476.908158437.450284210425.9816355629660.95355739350135165131119DRYL
2025-06-08 04:00:02FORECAST2025251-3469.76450.23459.99958.910916916667000.320.32FF37.764476.764158437.2535539430525.7590077878560.95223363064002165131119DRYL
2025-06-08 00:00:01FORECAST2025251-3470.35850.32460.34155.3876184000.320.32FF38.358474.358158435.8094481226424.1384474077310.95750585711093165131119DRYL
2025-06-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025251-3470.46648.4759.46861.2833336000.320.32FF38.466474.466158438.2186886855326.855502088470.9584120458747165131119DRYL
2025-06-07 16:00:01FORECAST2025251-3470.4351.76461.09761.171748000.320.32FF38.43474.43158438.1734242085126.803834285980.95811173308658165131119DRYL
2025-06-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025251-3470.05251.96261.00758.242872000.320.32FF38.052474.052158436.9807321760425.4510128505950.9548516395959165131119DRYL
2025-06-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025251-3469.87254.12261.99758.1780264000.320.32FF37.872474.872158436.9542253307125.4211344568820.95322923663196165131119DRYL
2025-06-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025251-3469.4453.47461.45758.237368633333000.320.32FF37.44474.44158436.9784827420725.4484769842850.9491450407259165131119DRYL
2025-06-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025251-3470.21453.2461.72756.7578784000.320.32FF38.214472.214158436.3726172572224.7675839473750.95627291610711165131119DRYL
2025-06-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025251-3470.5253.58262.05161.0253096000.320.32FF38.52471.52158438.1140022934426.7360426300520.95885925239232165131119DRYL
2025-06-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025251-3469.63853.20461.42161.0912376000.320.32FF37.638470.638158438.1407573562126.7665611098920.95105079047911165131119DRYL
2025-06-06 12:00:01FORECAST2025251-3469.33252.80861.0758.9282088000.320.32FF37.332469.332158437.260609602325.7669845026590.94808099140342165131119DRYL
2025-06-06 08:00:01FORECAST2025251-3469.4452.84461.14258.9374584000.320.32FF37.44470.44158437.2643836172325.7712514192420.9491450407259165131119DRYL
2025-06-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025251-3469.45852.2560.85458.658455816667000.320.32FF37.458470.458158437.1505061814925.642573652080.94932068790188165131119DRYL
2025-06-06 00:00:02FORECAST2025251-3469.5352.21460.87257.0635288000.320.32FF37.53464.53158436.4979707009624.9081145222360.95001846570808165131119DRYL
2025-06-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025251-3469.69252.3461.01660.8909152000.320.32FF37.692464.692158438.0594481506626.6738407099010.95156054734301165131119DRYL
2025-06-05 16:00:01FORECAST2025251-3469.56653.1561.35860.601816000.320.32FF37.566465.566158437.9420322157826.5400824550070.95036447961716165131119DRYL
2025-06-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025251-3469.6253.38461.50258.5552928000.320.32FF37.62465.62158437.1083788194425.5950091071060.95087992531634165131119DRYL
2025-06-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025251-3469.74654.15861.95258.3264144000.320.32FF37.746467.746158437.0148752512425.4895107128680.95206606366961165131119DRYL
2025-06-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025251-3469.67453.88861.78158.099546816667000.320.32FF37.674467.674158436.9221395012225.3849782991890.95139110066427165131119DRYL
2025-06-05 00:00:02FORECAST2025251-3469.0853.74461.41258.1274104000.320.32FF37.08466.08158436.9335320649525.3978147358610.94552963093012165131119DRYL
2025-06-04 20:00:02FORECAST2025251-3468.23453.29460.76460.3684312000.320.32FF36.234465.234158437.8471814387826.4321474488010.9362362369592165131119DRYL
2025-06-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025251-3468.0953.29460.69260.28056000.320.32FF36.09465.09158437.8114548075626.3915196702140.93453861398967165131119DRYL
2025-06-04 12:00:02FORECAST2025251-3468.91854.46461.69158.6447584000.320.32FF36.918469.918158437.144913378125.6362578308470.94383795510698165131119DRYL
2025-06-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025251-3469.96255.27462.61858.528548000.320.32FF37.962469.962158437.0974555854725.5826794099120.95404617188148165131119DRYL
2025-06-04 04:00:04FORECAST2025251-3469.76455.1362.44758.700517716667000.320.32FF37.764469.764158437.1676792941125.6619691035580.95223363064002165131119DRYL
2025-06-04 00:00:02FORECAST2025251-3469.3553.61861.48459.4170216000.320.32FF37.35463.35158437.4599332172725.9925663011050.94825954733673165131119DRYL
2025-06-03 20:00:02FORECAST2025251-3469.11653.70861.41261.8382128000.320.32FF37.116462.116158438.4435839146327.1125676429070.94590004803072165131119DRYL
2025-06-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025251-3469.00853.52861.26861.7712024000.320.32FF37.008465.008158438.4164410996627.0815107186550.94478280108908165131119DRYL
2025-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025251-3468.97253.9661.46660.374808000.320.32FF36.972465.972158437.8497738048126.4350960263090.94440637537467165131119DRYL
2025-06-03 08:00:02FORECAST2025251-3468.57653.85261.21460.2915616000.320.32FF36.576468.576158437.8159282696126.3966060087280.94013123240707165131119DRYL
2025-06-03 04:00:04FORECAST2025251-3468.66653.94261.30460.682086083333000.320.32FF36.666465.666158437.9746420834126.5772149332220.94112471757027165131119DRYL
2025-06-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025251-3467.49651.24259.36963.4717912000.320.32FF35.496457.496158439.103843937427.8707074975120.92716462080192165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-02 20:00:02FORECAST2025251-3467.98252.53860.2665.487968000.330.33FF35.982459.982158439.9149744882928.809137772010.93324263042299165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025251-3467.40652.4359.91865.4848192000.330.33FF35.406459.406158439.9137109265928.8076698236290.9259941226242165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025251-3469.94454.28462.11464.0300736000.320.32FF37.944462.944158439.3288632285828.130259447130.95388370556756165131119DRYL
2025-06-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025251-3470.77252.03461.40364.2497024000.320.32FF38.772458.772158439.4172986018828.2324306645830.96089507951223165131119DRYL
2025-06-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025251-3470.98854.562.74463.629047783333000.320.32FF38.988460.988158439.1672594934727.9437945391860.96257430009662165131119DRYL
2025-06-02 00:00:03FORECAST2025251-3470.68251.5361.10665.9828416000.320.32FF38.682451.682158440.1134335832529.0399349741550.96017759174117165131119DRYL
2025-06-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025251-3469.81848.4759.14467.8476792000.320.32FF37.818453.818158440.8590519659829.9112635302040.95273352775718165131119DRYL
2025-06-01 16:00:03FORECAST2025251-3469.02647.2158.11868.02598000.320.32FF37.026453.026158440.9301572012929.9947060551720.94497026003272165131119DRYL
2025-06-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025251-3463.26642.60252.93468.521916000.320.32FF31.266442.266158441.1277640844330.2269195958610.85549993452011165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025251-3460.7142.0851.39569.1070024000.320.32FF28.71434.71158441.3605733203730.5011061997160.79448363439181164131124DRYL
2025-06-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025251-3460.22442.06251.14369.346559066667000.320.32FF28.224432.224158441.455794508330.6134403291920.78135903867644164131124DRYL
2025-06-01 00:00:03FORECAST2025251-3458.71242.58450.64870.74479200.010.330.34FF26.712414.712158442.0104224599931.2699353987640.73758491100766164131124DRYL
2025-05-31 20:00:02FORECAST2025251-3458.74842.00850.37874.435992800.010.350.36FF26.748413.748158443.4651583789533.0097693361460.73867681269341164131124DRYL
2025-05-31 16:00:02FORECAST2025251-3458.04642.09850.07274.712988800.010.350.36FF26.046409.046158443.5737758612833.1407225478980.7169727961335164131124DRYL
2025-05-31 12:00:03FORECAST2025251-3462.43844.43853.43872.9085296000.350.35FF30.438415.438158442.8648249733332.2886232003670.83722741695107164131124DRYL
2025-05-31 08:00:04FORECAST2025251-3462.29444.47453.38472.1029288000.330.33FF30.294420.294158442.5472631715131.908953807090.83390287466188164131124DRYL
2025-05-31 04:00:05FORECAST2025251-3461.10643.19652.15171.486993000.330.33FF29.106425.106158442.3040271794831.6189848948510.80482424298322164131124DRYL
2025-05-31 00:00:03FORECAST2025251-3460.65642.42251.53967.08185200.020.340.36FF28.656416.656158440.5532784439329.553129822690.79304882397532164131124DRYL
2025-05-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025251-3462.8744.16853.51971.969852800.020.340.36FF30.87420.87158442.4947430449231.8462815217170.84694017018355164131124DRYL
2025-05-30 16:00:03FORECAST2025251-3462.9644.43853.69971.646608800.020.340.36FF30.96421.96158442.3670967558831.694102327260.84891440869253164131124DRYL
2025-05-30 12:00:03FORECAST2025251-3461.4338.15649.79371.364004000.370.37FF29.43404.43158442.2554126431.5611170366630.81304544084405164131124DRYL
2025-05-30 08:00:03FORECAST2025251-3461.4338.15649.79372.2088664000.370.37FF29.43399.43158442.5890600959531.958854310570.81304544084405164131124DRYL
2025-05-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025251-3459.55836.62648.09272.580620866667000.370.37FF27.558397.558158442.7356442190632.1340279372230.76261420059639164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-30 00:00:03FORECAST2025251-3449.31636.89643.10677.5953004658300.080.550.63FF17.316372.316158444.6994834817434.5065900377650.40542008607127162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 20:00:04FORECAST2025251-3449.33434.66441.99980.93853525132200.080.550.63FF17.334365.334158445.9949260188436.0981760414870.4060702401153162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 16:00:04FORECAST2025251-3443.17833.31438.24681.75435101304300.080.550.63FF11.178355.178158446.3093735578736.4877331862610.2086370354711161121122DRYL
2025-05-29 12:00:03FORECAST2025251-3441.5434.75438.14779.06164466235800.040.430.47FF9.54374.54158445.2690197087435.2037010153690.16756917095922161121122DRYL
2025-05-29 08:00:03FORECAST2025251-3441.5434.75438.14777.53388205158900.040.420.46FF9.54384.54158444.6755819121534.4774241191980.16756917095922161121122DRYL
2025-05-29 04:00:04FORECAST2025251-3434.55632.50433.5378.17476073333300.040.440.48FF2.556367.556158444.9248026006534.7818899876310.053093230753839161121122DRYL