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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 7, 2025

[ Friday, June 6, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, June 8, 2025 ]

DAY 250 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/08/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.41°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 47.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.28°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.914
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 457

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 63 in
SWE DAY: 157
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 438.13 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 27.41 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -35

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-08 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025250-3567.4099647.1599657.2849662.570412916667000.350.35FF35.40996457.40996157438.13390438514 27.4142193101690.914452640743616 5131124.5DRYL
2025-06-08 00:00:01FORECAST2025250-3564.29243.57453.93359.0940512000.350.35FF32.292454.292157436.7169296418525.8073726001620.86263024904389165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025250-3563.66243.46653.56462.0791928000.350.35FF31.662453.662157437.934439962127.1866165321670.84998790061423165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025250-3565.46243.7954.62662.031764000.350.35FF33.462455.462157437.9151678859127.1646503463190.8841374453179165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025250-3565.22843.68254.45562.030393433333000.350.35FF33.228455.228157437.9146109394527.1640156067790.88003885432926165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-07 00:00:01FORECAST2025250-3566.48844.49255.4960.5628096000.350.35FF34.488452.488157437.3171264156426.485153861930.90093697118419165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025250-3566.48844.90655.69764.8720608000.350.35FF34.488451.488157439.0652017154628.4830644608490.90093697118419165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025250-3565.8445.53655.68864.8775712000.350.35FF33.84450.84157439.0674248178128.4856281152180.89054706685601165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-06 12:00:01FORECAST2025250-3565.24644.43854.84262.6673104000.350.35FF33.246450.246157438.173221115427.4591372566070.88035770173809165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-06 08:00:01FORECAST2025250-3565.40844.36654.88762.6806928000.350.35FF33.408451.408157438.1786503433527.465341373690.88320053024864165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025250-3565.10244.40254.75262.379845416667000.350.35FF33.102451.102157438.0565522532527.3259000133150.87779019945254165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-06 00:00:02FORECAST2025250-3565.55244.09654.82460.7913144000.350.35FF33.552444.552157437.4103020251926.5907471922120.88568712502593165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-05 20:00:01FORECAST2025250-3565.64244.27654.95964.6412344000.350.35FF33.642444.642157438.9720497183728.3756951608930.88722203502667165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-05 16:00:01FORECAST2025250-3565.67845.33855.50864.426132000.350.35FF33.678445.678157438.8851941031328.2756754481340.88783187332865165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025250-3566.23645.48255.85962.36662000.350.35FF34.236446.236157438.0511826127127.3197716465580.89698532534756165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025250-3566.48845.98656.23762.1946168000.350.35FF34.488448.488157437.9813313046327.2400810660450.90093697118419165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-05 04:00:03FORECAST2025250-3566.41645.64456.0361.938819616667000.350.35FF34.416448.416157437.8773944107627.1216089466240.89981937958715165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-05 00:00:01FORECAST2025250-3566.63246.45456.54361.9225016000.350.35FF34.632446.632157437.8707616943827.1140529416130.90314483347411165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-04 20:00:02FORECAST2025250-3566.90246.00456.45364.086672000.350.35FF34.902446.902157438.7480278956728.1179009543970.9071871207879165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025250-3566.86646.27456.5763.9846312000.350.35FF34.866446.866157438.7067729634328.0704910730070.90665544968862165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-04 12:00:02FORECAST2025250-356846.77857.38962.468484000.350.35FF36451157438.0925356761827.3669765554070.92234924755911165131119DRYL
2025-06-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025250-3567.60447.04857.32662.4552000.350.35FF35.604449.604157438.0871434640327.3608201624750.91711305387331165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-04 04:00:04FORECAST2025250-3568.2746.97657.62362.606210516667000.350.35FF36.27450.27157438.1484306013927.4308128837780.92577324326442165131119DRYL
2025-06-04 00:00:02FORECAST2025250-3567.31647.04857.18263.2162456000.350.35FF35.316444.316157438.3957722426727.7137348080940.91314171419976165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-03 20:00:02FORECAST2025250-3567.47845.91456.69665.60526000.350.35FF35.478443.478157439.360728615828.8243748346290.91539267455779165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-03 16:00:01FORECAST2025250-3567.60446.25656.9365.512272000.350.35FF35.604445.604157439.3232788789528.781066141850.91711305387331165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-03 12:00:02FORECAST2025250-3568.14446.14857.14664.160256000.350.35FF36.144447.144157438.7777711543628.1520941243730.92418995749034165131119DRYL
2025-06-03 08:00:02FORECAST2025250-3567.98246.2257.10164.0425696000.350.35FF35.982449.982157438.7301986778828.097409284450.92211680135334165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-03 04:00:03FORECAST2025250-3568.12645.82456.97564.434963683333000.350.35FF36.126447.126157438.8887611588928.2797813862960.92396169674492165131119DRYL
2025-06-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025250-3565.24645.7755.50866.987328000.350.35FF33.246440.246157439.9162975125529.4688173140190.88035770173809165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-02 20:00:02FORECAST2025250-3565.62445.0555.33769.1268000.360.36FF33.624441.624157440.7724933487430.469191993220.88691623250923165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-02 16:00:02FORECAST2025250-3565.3945.66255.52669.0915728000.360.36FF33.39442.39157440.7584334079930.4526933890220.88288703868181165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025250-3565.71445.17655.44568.0029736000.350.35FF33.714442.714157440.3233291178429.9432957254650.88843935839346165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-02 08:00:02FORECAST2025250-3565.37246.38255.87768.2208312000.350.35FF33.372438.372157440.4105013562330.0451704717310.88257295329657165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025250-3565.9345.4155.6767.649770183333000.350.35FF33.93439.93157440.1818978746529.7782042300840.89203501681694165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-02 00:00:03FORECAST2025250-3562.61843.0752.84469.895324000.350.35FF30.618430.618157441.0789150762230.8293536788210.8273844381091164131124DRYL
2025-06-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025250-3561.80842.56652.18771.4932024000.350.35FF29.808433.808157441.7141010195731.5795556271260.80842987475417164131124DRYL
2025-06-01 16:00:02FORECAST2025250-3561.742.74652.22371.4794264000.350.35FF29.7433.7157441.7086358169131.5730799241190.80580983518091164131124DRYL
2025-06-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025250-3558.98240.0149.49671.2039064000.350.35FF26.982428.982157441.5992915952631.4435946250550.73297838080098164131124DRYL
2025-06-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025250-3558.13639.77648.95671.670716000.350.35FF26.136424.136157441.7845069537431.6630119310820.70778803296265164131124DRYL
2025-06-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025250-3558.11839.66848.89371.890100666667000.350.35FF26.118422.118157441.8714760576131.766184895510.70724028189623164131124DRYL
2025-06-01 00:00:03FORECAST2025250-3554.24835.31244.7873.172516800.010.360.37FF22.248406.248157442.3788866860332.3699765179990.58030992531645163131123.5DRYL
2025-05-31 20:00:02FORECAST2025250-3554.35634.50244.42976.873065600.010.380.39FF22.356405.356157443.8338423353334.1188680773440.58404345914484163131123.5DRYL
2025-05-31 16:00:02FORECAST2025250-3553.81634.93444.37577.086298400.010.380.39FF21.816400.816157443.917263716134.2199386557310.56530666522558163131123.5DRYL
2025-05-31 12:00:02FORECAST2025250-3558.1935.02446.60775.7147992000.380.38FF26.19403.19157443.3799128125233.5704210679130.70942842157952164131124DRYL
2025-05-31 08:00:04FORECAST2025250-3559.0936.06847.57974.8767264000.360.36FF27.09408.09157443.050634800433.1741811632960.73611354025911164131124DRYL
2025-05-31 04:00:05FORECAST2025250-3556.98436.46446.72474.130017000.360.36FF24.984413.984157442.7566623177532.8215589044780.67181547391625163131123.5DRYL
2025-05-31 00:00:03FORECAST2025250-3558.65836.64447.65169.665442400.020.370.39FF26.658405.658157440.9873206217930.7215767839080.72346156327059164131124DRYL
2025-05-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025250-3560.45840.53250.49574.815679200.020.370.39FF28.458408.458157443.0266220135133.1453376296230.77414117151047164131124DRYL
2025-05-30 16:00:03FORECAST2025250-3561.14241.46851.30574.509163200.020.370.39FF29.142409.142157442.9059982962233.0005553093120.79192937026762164131124DRYL
2025-05-30 12:00:03FORECAST2025250-3549.98233.38641.68473.610180800.040.360.4FF17.982392.982157442.5516782459832.576309049030.43053185154022162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 08:00:03FORECAST2025250-3549.98233.38641.68474.455043200.040.360.4FF17.982387.982157442.8846906122832.9749987721560.43053185154022162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025250-3549.78435.90642.84574.65390886666700.030.370.4FF17.784387.784157442.9629719859433.0689173419460.42365531991102162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 00:00:03FORECAST2025250-3549.49633.841.64877.9335012658300.270.390.66FF17.496373.496157444.2482621746534.6218225025310.41369499893417162122125DRYL
2025-05-29 20:00:04FORECAST2025250-3547.19232.37839.78581.20431365132200.270.390.66FF15.192366.192157445.5194919194436.1781045596040.33649570714921162122125DRYL
2025-05-29 16:00:03FORECAST2025250-3544.49231.15437.82381.91031501304300.270.390.66FF12.492362.492157445.7925024085136.5150043027340.25426739391965162122125DRYL
2025-05-29 12:00:02FORECAST2025250-3557.88430.244.04279.27645186235800.070.430.5FF25.884382.884157444.7714898778835.2599056070530.70007657818599164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-29 08:00:03FORECAST2025250-3557.88433.845.84277.74868925158900.070.420.49FF25.884392.884157444.1761176574634.5341109447270.70007657818599164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-29 04:00:04FORECAST2025250-3551.31433.38642.3578.19985273333300.110.40.51FF19.314383.314157444.3521774489134.7482748382410.477238128538162122125DRYL
2025-05-29 00:00:03FORECAST2025250-3538.0328.83233.43177.74924000.380.38FF6.03360.03157444.1763327017934.5343722935520.10866538095571161121122DRYL
2025-05-28 20:00:03FORECAST2025250-3535.58228.83232.20783.461892510502000.420.42FF3.582356.582157446.3907794162337.2566192493170.073413386452244161121122DRYL
2025-05-28 16:00:03FORECAST2025250-3536.62631.76634.19683.577215298617000.420.42FF4.626353.626157446.4351529799537.3118068974760.087202192266796161121122DRYL
2025-05-28 12:00:03FORECAST2025250-3535.7828.14831.96482.53503917062200.130.490.62FF3.78348.78157446.0336750914436.8134068450890.07589208319991161122124DRYL
2025-05-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025250-3535.7828.14831.96482.46676437743900.130.480.61FF3.78351.78157446.0073364572236.7807819262270.07589208319991161122124DRYL
2025-05-28 04:00:04FORECAST2025250-3542.8941.55842.22481.49747059440200.130.660.79FF10.89370.89157445.6329150517136.3179553903240.21098881234387161122124DRYL