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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 6, 2025

[ Thursday, June 5, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, June 7, 2025 ]

DAY 249 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/07/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.85°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.30°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.787
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 30
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 425

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.60 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.60 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 65 in
SWE DAY: 156
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 438.52 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 28.51 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -36

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-07 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025249-3661.8499446.2999254.0749365.022835833333000.60.6FF29.84994424.84994156438.52152987699 28.5139134465740.7874772999800716 4131124DRYL
2025-06-07 00:00:01FORECAST2025249-3658.08242.6250.35163.6504048000.60.6FF26.082421.082156437.964971031127.876647694350.67869704575876163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-06 12:00:01FORECAST2025249-3657.07442.3549.71265.7119048000.60.6FF25.074420.074156438.8002357100728.8343993151980.64610064589916163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-06 08:00:01FORECAST2025249-3657.52442.15249.83865.7139712000.60.6FF25.524420.524156438.8010707678128.8353609269650.66080278116808163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025249-3658.29842.56650.43265.391279016667000.60.6FF26.298421.298156438.6706137600128.6852325007930.68551691584555163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-06 00:00:01FORECAST2025249-3658.0141.93649.97363.786512000.60.6FF26.01414.01156438.0202529795227.9397841229210.67641015978065163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-05 20:00:01FORECAST2025249-3658.15442.51250.33367.6573912000.60.6FF26.154414.154156439.5844935215729.7411400436430.6809771818139163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-05 16:00:01FORECAST2025249-3659.1843.7951.48567.518844000.60.6FF27.18415.18156439.5287709253329.6764745176190.7126946984446164131124DRYL
2025-06-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025249-3659.07243.91651.49465.5052848000.60.6FF27.072415.072156438.7167158847928.7382634205540.70942709082895164131124DRYL
2025-06-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025249-3659.12644.74451.93565.3857288000.60.6FF27.126417.126156438.668368999928.6826510085660.71106306585841164131124DRYL
2025-06-05 04:00:03FORECAST2025249-3659.19844.18651.69265.091162016667000.60.6FF27.198417.198156438.5491873722928.5456762075270.71323760655775164131124DRYL
2025-06-05 00:00:01FORECAST2025249-3659.64844.18651.91765.1253232000.60.6FF27.648414.648156438.5630135477428.5615580008630.72664988182822164131124DRYL
2025-06-04 20:00:02FORECAST2025249-3659.39644.0651.72867.2949056000.60.6FF27.396415.396156439.4386631858629.5719833560830.71917729687476164131124DRYL
2025-06-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025249-3659.46843.77251.6267.22022000.60.6FF27.468415.468156439.4085999931929.5371427614340.721322356028164131124DRYL
2025-06-04 12:00:02FORECAST2025249-3660.54844.16852.35865.8266792000.60.6FF28.548417.548156438.8466108231128.887815068660.75250825440204164131124DRYL
2025-06-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025249-3660.76444.36652.56565.8186104000.60.6FF28.764416.764156438.8433510299428.884059548070.75851416114387164131124DRYL
2025-06-04 04:00:04FORECAST2025249-3660.67444.16852.42165.998255316667000.60.6FF28.674416.674156438.9159117188928.9676844041710.75602134903426164131124DRYL
2025-06-04 00:00:02FORECAST2025249-3660.83644.16852.50266.5435432000.60.6FF28.836411.836156439.135957225129.2216625402820.76049842364834164131124DRYL
2025-06-03 20:00:02FORECAST2025249-3660.42244.29452.35868.880996000.60.6FF28.422411.422156440.07576735630.3128571709450.74896835068455164131124DRYL
2025-06-03 16:00:01FORECAST2025249-3660.87244.18652.52968.808672000.60.6FF28.872412.872156440.0467719141130.2790339932970.761487211874164131124DRYL
2025-06-03 12:00:02FORECAST2025249-3661.19643.26852.23267.5155976000.60.6FF29.196414.196156439.527465013629.6749594620060.77028513787072164131124DRYL
2025-06-03 08:00:02FORECAST2025249-3660.54843.03451.79167.3985016000.60.6FF28.548416.548156439.480354240529.6203173584470.75250825440204164131124DRYL
2025-06-03 04:00:03FORECAST2025249-3660.36842.54851.45867.753011683333000.60.6FF28.368414.368156439.6229398938729.785778182890.74744310089966164131124DRYL
2025-06-03 00:00:02FORECAST2025249-3659.19843.53851.36870.103164000.60.6FF27.198410.198156440.5649425142730.8849964177280.71323760655775164131124DRYL
2025-06-02 20:00:02FORECAST2025249-3659.21643.50251.35972.242537600.010.60.61FF27.216411.216156441.4175838953131.8891264018580.71378002839263164131124DRYL
2025-06-02 16:00:02FORECAST2025249-3658.58643.66451.12572.214395200.010.60.61FF26.586411.586156441.4063978670231.8758960593770.69451225702007163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025249-3658.83842.96250.971.1573824000.60.6FF26.838411.838156440.9856773608431.3793864768890.70228832219521164131124DRYL
2025-06-02 08:00:02FORECAST2025249-3659.4543.39451.42271.366384000.60.6FF27.45408.45156441.0689554292431.4774964436420.72078683899063164131124DRYL
2025-06-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025249-3658.56843.2550.90970.826417383333000.60.6FF26.568408.568156440.853711695531.2240889895370.69395339656694163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-02 00:00:03FORECAST2025249-3657.95642.78250.36972.655444000.60.6FF25.956402.956156441.5816138458132.0833082162040.67469060956737163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025249-3658.26242.33250.29774.1358328000.60.6FF26.262407.262156442.1682965857532.7805149051420.68438457191033163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-01 16:00:02FORECAST2025249-3657.4742.54850.00974.1009992000.60.6FF25.47407.47156442.1545172486832.7640915289210.65905085653582163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025249-3656.2141.34248.77673.3677224000.60.6FF24.21405.21156441.8641673859732.4185675712810.61727065400313163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025249-3654.51840.83847.67873.7416424000.60.6FF22.518400.518156442.0122931261932.5947124561160.55903434370407163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025249-3653.79839.00246.473.953155066667000.60.6FF21.798398.798156442.0960200837932.6943955276130.53378078865754163121123DRYL
2025-06-01 00:00:02FORECAST2025249-3650.57636.82443.774.96251120.0090551230.0090551230.610.619055123FF18.576386.576156442.494953204933.1705328855660.4205536355972162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 20:00:02FORECAST2025249-3650.66637.32843.99778.64761120.0090551230.0090551230.630.639055123FF18.666385.666156443.9427818550734.9150393023840.42367162940193162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 16:00:02FORECAST2025249-3649.58637.443.49378.83604720.0086614220.0086614220.630.638661422FF17.586381.586156444.0164523724935.0045019968140.38662524938774162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 12:00:02FORECAST2025249-3650.66637.05843.86277.7380016000.630.63FF18.666379.666156443.5866665800534.4835409963380.42367162940193162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 08:00:04FORECAST2025249-3652.10638.04845.07777.042412000.610.61FF20.106384.106156443.3137851632534.1539632818270.47407856509226162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 04:00:05FORECAST2025249-3650.9938.344.64576.15922180.0003937010.0003937010.610.610393701FF18.99391.99156442.9666121655233.7359924659080.43493465873525162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 00:00:03FORECAST2025249-3649.76638.33644.05171.86035280.0173228440.0173228440.620.637322844FF17.766381.766156441.2656049302131.709502048790.3927381098326162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025249-3650.21639.14644.68177.30795440.0173228440.0173228440.620.637322844FF18.216383.216156443.4180149629834.2797396808970.40813330777743162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 16:00:03FORECAST2025249-3650.8138.8444.82577.08271680.0153543390.0153543390.620.635354339FF18.81382.81156443.3296099920534.1730507760720.42867029429916162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 12:00:03FORECAST2025249-3649.135.83442.46774.914472800.040.610.65FF17.1378.1156442.475989907133.1478555105490.37026433294773162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 08:00:02FORECAST2025249-3647.3931.69439.54275.759335200.040.610.65FF15.39373.39156442.8091645226833.5469279247060.31470780851289162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025249-3649.96431.42440.69476.01566646666700.030.620.65FF17.964372.964156442.9101084187433.6681070762740.39949288327127162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 00:00:03FORECAST2025249-3645.7734.740.23579.222049265830.0799213030.2699213030.640.909921303FF13.77358.77156444.1672528275135.1878399857690.26566202804606162122125DRYL
2025-05-29 20:00:03FORECAST2025249-3643.2533.33238.29182.2346600513220.0799213030.2699213030.640.909921303FF11.25354.25156445.339131291836.6223120693330.19789948346159161122124DRYL
2025-05-29 16:00:03FORECAST2025249-3641.97231.08236.52782.7103070130430.0811024060.2711024060.640.911102406FF9.972352.972156445.5233353856736.8493718512240.16793594350202161122124DRYL
2025-05-29 12:00:02FORECAST2025249-3643.08834.32238.70580.5132414623580.0429134090.0729134090.680.752913409FF11.088360.088156444.6706132085835.8018724524770.19393225245277161121122DRYL
2025-05-29 08:00:02FORECAST2025249-3646.45437.70642.0879.3659916515890.0429134090.0729134090.670.742913409FF14.454370.454156444.2234493461135.2562345722430.28589321504711162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 04:00:04FORECAST2025249-3645.57233.99839.78579.5481295333330.0405512030.1105512030.650.760551203FF13.572366.572156444.2945283195835.3427986897170.25994395393412162122125DRYL
2025-05-29 00:00:03FORECAST2025249-3648.9238.44443.68277.9380696000.630.63FF16.92356.92156443.665064484934.5783986749130.36426202370798162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025249-3644.636.1440.3783.570526110502000.670.67FF12.6355.6156445.8559083096237.2604128269110.23282066815646161121122DRYL
2025-05-28 16:00:03FORECAST2025249-3643.71837.27440.49683.709956898617000.670.67FF11.718351.718156445.909745829637.3270856040690.20963210089055161121122DRYL
2025-05-28 12:00:03FORECAST2025249-3648.14628.77838.46282.5585567706220.0019685050.1619685050.710.871968505FF16.146348.146156445.4645911477336.7769137375720.33884559457104162122125DRYL
2025-05-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025249-3648.14628.77838.46282.4902819774390.0019685050.1619685050.70.861968505FF16.146351.146156445.4381538155736.7443189117560.33884559457104162122125DRYL
2025-05-28 04:00:04FORECAST2025249-3659.86430.3845.12281.6652425944020.0019685050.1719685050.871.041968505FF27.864362.864156445.118319760636.3506955664620.73297569293666164122127DRYL
2025-05-28 00:00:03FORECAST2025249-3636.2328.14832.18980.2817570258900.020.810.83FF4.23333.23156444.5804923626235.6917030663060.070580365304776161121122DRYL
2025-05-27 20:00:03FORECAST2025249-3636.84228.14832.49584.61882943540300.020.830.85FF4.842334.842156446.2602161476437.7620171140030.078217162830433161121122DRYL
2025-05-27 16:00:03FORECAST2025249-3638.62434.5236.57284.54804743025700.030.981.01FF6.624335.624156446.2329509421437.72812470120.10399905988393161121122DRYL
2025-05-27 12:00:03FORECAST2025249-3642.24234.62838.43580.12053782225900.010.850.86FF10.242357.242156444.5176956617135.6149968479280.17401050122269161121122DRYL
2025-05-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025249-3642.24234.62838.43580.53635440870100.010.850.86FF10.242355.242156444.6796085643235.8128745536590.17401050122269161121122DRYL
2025-05-27 04:00:05FORECAST2025249-3638.69635.8737.28381.599042724534000.80.8FF6.696346.696156445.0926277171736.3191323454680.10515663144058161121122DRYL