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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 4, 2025

[ Tuesday, June 3, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, June 5, 2025 ]

DAY 247 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/05/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.42°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.71°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.473
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 374

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.22 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.22 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 70 in
SWE DAY: 154
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 439.20 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 30.61 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -38

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-05 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025247-3852.4199237.0099444.7149369.686540416667001.221.22FF20.41992374.41992154439.19678600323 30.6061045786840.4733544681259516 2121122.5DRYL
2025-06-05 00:00:01FORECAST2025247-3848.03833.8940.96469.8227424001.221.22FF16.038370.038154439.2516803662230.6697569269780.3199916904256162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-04 12:00:01FORECAST2025247-3848.81233.96241.38770.7881056001.221.22FF16.812370.812154439.6402130798431.1212978295020.34571664328664162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-04 08:00:01FORECAST2025247-3848.59634.35841.47770.744416001.221.22FF16.596370.596154439.622649766131.1008476180760.33845920999778162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-04 04:00:03FORECAST2025247-3848.52433.99841.26170.917369716667001.221.22FF16.524370.524154439.6921661218431.1818119063850.33605316702482162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-04 00:00:01FORECAST2025247-3848.41634.59241.50471.4454376001.221.22FF16.416366.416154439.9042268412831.4291499887650.33245668125745162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-03 20:00:02FORECAST2025247-3848.16435.20441.68473.7279832001.221.22FF16.164366.164154440.8175833094832.5005913765060.32412505652404162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-03 16:00:01FORECAST2025247-3849.135.31242.20673.6930512001.221.22FF17.1367.1154440.8036451955832.4841655945440.35548164457556162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-03 12:00:02FORECAST2025247-3849.87435.54642.7172.363372001.221.22FF17.874367.874154440.2721733094831.8595790584420.38218285154876162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-03 08:00:01FORECAST2025247-3850.50435.76243.13372.2582808001.221.22FF18.504369.504154440.2300918377431.8102695926210.40434463831515162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-03 04:00:03FORECAST2025247-3851.40435.7843.59272.491857283333001.221.22FF19.404370.404154440.3236071704131.919876089480.43652674888982162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-03 00:00:02FORECAST2025247-3851.49437.05844.27674.85627760.0011811030.0011811031.221.221181103FF19.494367.494154441.2671162869433.0316137525270.43977191776382162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-02 20:00:02FORECAST2025247-3851.47637.14844.31276.94733680.0066929170.0066929171.221.226692917FF19.476368.476154442.0968336281434.0181739553980.43912255299651162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-02 16:00:02FORECAST2025247-3852.6136.89644.75376.89715280.0066929170.0066929171.221.226692917FF20.61369.61154442.0769725440533.9944605070810.48028001931926162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-02 12:00:02FORECAST2025247-3851.85436.3244.08775.8190824001.221.22FF19.854368.854154441.6496977964833.4854748291670.45279094927917162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-02 08:00:02FORECAST2025247-3851.04436.10443.57476.023164001.221.22FF19.044365.044154441.7306718491733.581763309820.42359086633535162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-02 04:00:03FORECAST2025247-3851.42236.8644.14175.429962983333001.221.22FF19.422366.422154441.4951893866633.3019657927560.43717544823839162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025247-3851.09836.0543.57477.0830504001.221.22FF19.098362.098154442.1505316782634.0823117177420.42552636160888162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025247-3853.09636.37444.73578.7359344001.221.22FF21.096365.096154442.8030479247334.8645117335220.49800954659169162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-01 16:00:02FORECAST2025247-3851.6236.8644.2478.6222824001.221.22FF19.62365.62154442.7582686815534.8106656352160.44432191233388162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-01 12:00:02FORECAST2025247-3850.68436.12243.40377.67774080.0031496080.0031496081.221.223149608FF18.684364.684154442.3856157772834.3635151959960.41073680854734162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025247-3851.3536.0543.777.7451448001.221.22FF19.35363.35154442.4122385187734.3954035449340.43458168155428162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025247-3852.23234.8843.55677.862587066667001.221.22FF20.232363.232154442.458614122734.4509723655260.46651551662917162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-01 00:00:02FORECAST2025247-3851.63835.74443.69178.327004001.231.23FF19.638354.638154442.6418676306234.6708113364710.44497252531869162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 20:00:01FORECAST2025247-3850.46837.41843.94382.0178112001.251.25FF18.468354.468154444.0905572370236.4233354791690.40306920366689162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 16:00:02FORECAST2025247-3850.25237.7644.00682.0800984001.251.25FF18.252352.252154444.1148894253736.4529938249390.39543868312855162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 12:00:02FORECAST2025247-3848.48834.10641.29780.8612176001.251.25FF16.488350.488154443.6380395275535.8731120498740.3348526506252162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 08:00:03FORECAST2025247-3849.53235.79842.66580.3794512001.231.23FF17.532352.532154443.4491556812435.6441997687610.37030682982102162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 04:00:04FORECAST2025247-3851.29635.92443.6179.4973434001.231.23FF19.296360.296154443.1027122856335.2254884800420.43263819620722162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 00:00:02FORECAST2025247-3853.1537.02245.08675.0712432001.241.24FF21.15353.15154441.3526164745733.1328896083180.49998037794083163121123DRYL
2025-05-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025247-3853.79836.96845.38380.6368264001.241.24FF21.798353.798154443.5500922998935.766471792490.52361664256961163121123DRYL
2025-05-30 16:00:02FORECAST2025247-3853.13237.27445.20380.434024001.241.24FF21.132355.132154443.4705633876835.6701219388180.49932343172946163121123DRYL
2025-05-30 12:00:03FORECAST2025247-3852.2537.79645.02377.6737072001.231.23FF20.25354.25154442.3840224707534.3616070313520.46717019281369162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 08:00:02FORECAST2025247-3851.22437.25644.2477.94106001.231.23FF19.224353.224154442.4895938065934.4881079802550.43004942292741162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 04:00:03FORECAST2025247-3850.46837.20243.83578.434732066667001.241.24FF18.468350.468154442.6843449912534.7218279894970.40306920366689162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025247-3847.85836.37442.11681.2229368001.261.26FF15.858339.858154443.7797052015736.045090948710.31412551150804162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 20:00:03FORECAST2025247-3847.33635.90641.62183.785901360485001.261.26FF15.336339.336154444.7797588583437.2662730028450.29738107225481162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 16:00:03FORECAST2025247-3846.8535.9641.40583.892944206434001.261.26FF14.85338.85154444.8213848822737.3173756237570.282168020259162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 12:00:02FORECAST2025247-3847.62436.01441.81982.559863062358001.31.3FF15.624340.624154444.3021781675436.6815269878190.30656924947646162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 08:00:02FORECAST2025247-3849.9135.00642.45882.216442851589001.291.29FF17.91345.91154444.1681382806736.5179243574490.38343965048103162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 04:00:04FORECAST2025247-3850.30634.93442.6281.972902333333001.271.27FF18.306346.306154444.0730114206236.4019535940520.39734268364622162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 00:00:03FORECAST2025247-3847.91233.27840.59580.98354960.0023622060.0023622061.251.252362206FF15.912329.912154443.6859648637435.9312643423660.31588053268617162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025247-3850.19836.6843.43986.2308685105020.0027559070.0027559071.291.292755907FF18.198335.198154445.7277221404138.4354885993750.39353717454807162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025247-3850.07236.37443.22386.2854784986170.0027559070.0027559071.291.292755907FF18.072333.072154445.7488283973338.4616509484610.38911025353455162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 12:00:03FORECAST2025247-3851.13440.0145.57283.8916799706220.0330708840.0730708841.291.363070884FF19.134333.134154444.8208933217237.3167720267920.42681769240292162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025247-3850.3638.7544.55583.8234051774390.0326771830.0726771831.281.352677183FF18.36336.36154444.794344351137.2841765471760.39924913287338162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 04:00:04FORECAST2025247-3847.87637.65242.76483.5962441944020.0377952960.2277952961.31.527795296FF15.876335.876154444.7059785971637.1757495815190.31471005466199162122125DRYL
2025-05-28 00:00:03FORECAST2025247-3848.57835.34841.96381.523171425890.007874020.117874021.321.43787402FF16.578325.578154443.8971919110236.1879068716330.33785707632951162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 20:00:03FORECAST2025247-3848.7435.09641.91885.9061966354030.0141732360.1341732361.331.464173236FF16.74325.74154445.6021789925838.2799884097010.34329103517191162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025247-3847.13835.36641.25286.0160770302570.0177165450.2877165451.331.617716545FF15.138324.138154445.644678805138.3326070202230.29113803750627162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 12:00:03FORECAST2025247-3853.0640.22646.64382.4627530222590.0086614220.1786614221.31.478661422FF21.06332.06154444.2642871324236.6352561864110.49669568304367162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025247-3852.64640.06446.35582.8514112087010.0070866180.1770866181.31.477086618FF20.646329.646154444.4158802093336.82048283890.48159241138871162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025247-3852.05238.5745.31183.36847152453400.121.31.42FF20.052329.052154444.6173236897137.067066689340.45997402736675162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 00:00:03FORECAST2025247-3848.6536.91442.78284.8180536793380.0185039470.2885039471.331.618503947FF16.65326.65154445.1806633760437.7593574032320.34026808386078162122125DRYL
2025-05-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025247-3849.3736.84243.10685.8808021328260.0185039470.2885039471.311.598503947FF17.37334.37154445.5923551561438.2678288850640.36472340946112162122125DRYL
2025-05-26 16:00:03FORECAST2025247-3849.31637.83243.57485.8515687956650.1122047850.3222047851.281.602204785FF17.316331.316154445.5810454859938.2538317805850.36286855713505162122125DRYL
2025-05-26 12:00:03FORECAST2025247-3859.88238.91249.39781.66068080.0133858340.0133858341.231.243385834FF27.882367.882154443.9509716661236.2533385880770.73100005738117164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-26 08:00:03FORECAST2025247-3859.88238.91249.39781.8164480.0133858340.0133858341.291.303385834FF27.882364.882154444.0118693493636.3274740200040.73100005738117164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025247-3862.0644.00653.03380.25012888333300.051.331.38FF30.06373.06154443.398413537735.5827798330660.79250372287547164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-26 00:00:03FORECAST2025247-3853.13238.5745.85185.27331379346200.051.281.33FF21.132329.132154445.3571599469837.9770808503240.49932343172946163121123DRYL
2025-05-25 20:00:03FORECAST2025247-3853.13238.55245.84289.2531541792200.051.261.31FF21.132330.132154446.8914163750139.8864684870890.49932343172946163121123DRYL
2025-05-25 16:00:03FORECAST2025247-3859.55839.52449.54188.77940815109800.051.221.27FF27.558341.558154446.7095961230139.6586135592170.72112808636993164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-25 12:00:03FORECAST2025247-3848.41642.1745.29385.430956001.121.12FF16.416352.416154445.4182275824238.0525050021920.33245668125745162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-25 08:00:03FORECAST2025247-3848.41642.1745.29383.7397552001.141.14FF16.416368.416154444.7618103919837.2442451245330.33245668125745162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-25 04:00:04FORECAST2025247-3840.78438.2139.49784.56658245001.131.13FF8.784344.784154445.0830847367337.6391553824890.12889465119506161121122DRYL