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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 3, 2025

[ Monday, June 2, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, June 4, 2025 ]

DAY 246 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/04/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.86°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.87°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.87°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.610
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 361

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.41 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 72 in
SWE DAY: 153
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 439.60 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 31.73 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -39

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-04 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025246-3954.8636.8700845.8650472.176692916667001.411.41FF22.86360.86153439.5970041255 31.7286579738530.6102073172520616 3121123DRYL
2025-06-04 00:00:01FORECAST2025246-3951.47632.03641.75672.7258184001.411.41FF19.476357.476153439.817647866331.986098387840.47602709203894162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-03 12:00:02FORECAST2025246-3951.27831.92841.60373.7343792001.411.41FF19.278357.278153440.2220961838832.4595029722410.46811059321204162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-03 08:00:01FORECAST2025246-3951.69231.98241.83773.712436001.411.41FF19.692357.692153440.213307646232.4491952662190.48467396978583162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-03 04:00:03FORECAST2025246-3952.3433.04442.69273.983306083333001.411.41FF20.34358.34153440.321760356732.5764595716220.51064159087539163121123DRYL
2025-06-03 00:00:02FORECAST2025246-3952.55633.2642.90876.4713168001.411.41FF20.556354.556153441.3144435252433.7478966192340.51929287868503163121123DRYL
2025-06-02 20:00:01FORECAST2025246-3952.5233.65643.08878.5581448001.411.41FF20.52355.52153442.1422362057834.733873814050.51785151804721163121123DRYL
2025-06-02 16:00:01FORECAST2025246-3952.6133.72843.16978.5321672001.411.41FF20.61355.61153442.1319584859834.7215808882840.52145444091692163121123DRYL
2025-06-02 12:00:02FORECAST2025246-3952.50234.6143.55677.4136544001.411.41FF20.502355.502153441.6887887438634.1927432441720.51713074903773163121123DRYL
2025-06-02 08:00:02FORECAST2025246-3952.23234.68243.45777.548856001.411.41FF20.232353.232153441.7424243482634.2566196548740.50631381370755163121123DRYL
2025-06-02 04:00:03FORECAST2025246-3952.734.98843.84476.995506983333001.411.41FF20.7353.7153441.5227895473833.9952710258960.5250556113921163121123DRYL
2025-06-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025246-3952.19634.59243.39478.5939824001.411.41FF20.196350.196153442.1564138009634.750833404320.50487103098586163121123DRYL
2025-06-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025246-3952.26834.44843.35880.38748001.411.41FF20.268351.268153442.8642876229735.6007440640060.50775651384044163121123DRYL
2025-06-01 16:00:02FORECAST2025246-3952.80835.31244.0680.2375184001.411.41FF20.808352.808153442.8052228898835.5295922192430.52937428970787163121123DRYL
2025-06-01 12:00:02FORECAST2025246-3952.53835.04243.7979.2201608001.411.41FF20.538352.538153442.4039260203735.0473101578850.51857222871367163121123DRYL
2025-06-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025246-3952.19634.82643.51179.3003568001.411.41FF20.196351.196153442.43559700935.0853007038350.50487103098586163121123DRYL
2025-06-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025246-3950.95433.8942.42279.411895066667001.411.41FF18.954349.954153442.4796349548735.1381463401730.45518490133411162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-01 00:00:02FORECAST2025246-3951.3534.46642.90879.891564001.421.42FF19.35342.35153442.6688774634235.3655089546770.4709880268867162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 20:00:01FORECAST2025246-3951.20634.2542.72883.5447824001.441.44FF19.206343.206153444.1026318575937.1024577418090.46523482459955162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 16:00:01FORECAST2025246-3951.02634.37642.70183.5991976001.441.44FF19.026341.026153444.1238874315937.1284006242730.45805366753235162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 12:00:02FORECAST2025246-3949.8233.22441.52282.0364088001.441.44FF17.82340.82153443.5122625677436.384153279820.41040478287122162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 08:00:03FORECAST2025246-3950.30633.63841.97281.7697448001.421.42FF18.306342.306153443.4076562303136.2573308923190.42948874650861162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 04:00:04FORECAST2025246-3951.56634.5243.04380.9887922001.421.42FF19.566347.566153443.1008980433535.8862065552660.47962882034656162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-31 00:00:02FORECAST2025246-3951.11634.26842.69276.711276001.431.43FF19.116339.116153441.4098527744433.8611130452990.46164268292309162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025246-3950.6334.2542.4482.319368001.431.43FF18.63338.63153443.6231836964636.5187801120410.44230648159363162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 16:00:02FORECAST2025246-3951.99834.50243.2582.133884001.431.43FF19.998340.998153443.5504822341836.4305238559660.4969350931113162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 12:00:02FORECAST2025246-3952.2535.67243.96179.3793728001.421.42FF20.25341.25153442.4667956832835.1227367261640.50703517527687163121123DRYL
2025-05-30 08:00:02FORECAST2025246-3951.38634.93443.1679.504144001.421.42FF19.386341.386153442.5160475904935.1818595699450.47242732135808162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 04:00:03FORECAST2025246-3951.11635.07843.09779.963179266667001.431.43FF19.116339.116153442.697111867735.3994685171130.46164268292309162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025246-3950.37834.84442.61182.5690488001.451.45FF18.378331.378153443.7209933739136.6376203554750.43233120734788162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 20:00:03FORECAST2025246-3949.7334.01641.87385.059787760485001.451.45FF17.73330.73153444.6933243491637.8255197876440.40689246404439162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 16:00:03FORECAST2025246-3949.83834.46642.15285.146757006434001.451.45FF17.838330.838153444.7271642547837.8670757889620.41110811930027162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 12:00:02FORECAST2025246-3949.3734.48441.92783.875864662358001.491.49FF17.37332.37153444.2319132251537.2603358323730.39292058965481162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 08:00:02FORECAST2025246-3949.02833.51241.2783.557536451589001.481.48FF17.028335.028153444.1076140873937.1085381525350.37977356331712162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 04:00:04FORECAST2025246-3949.0133.841.40583.346861533333001.461.46FF17.01335.01153444.0252955606837.0081148263940.37908530064851162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-29 00:00:03FORECAST2025246-3947.49834.57441.03682.141816001.441.44FF15.498321.498153443.5535919258136.4342975341090.32283127674239162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025246-3951.20635.72643.46687.75351011050200.011.471.48FF19.206324.206153445.73799489339.1150736414780.46523482459955162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025246-3948.95635.63642.29687.78342169861700.011.471.48FF16.956321.956153445.749555028239.1294211610110.37702281864276162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 12:00:03FORECAST2025246-3951.22434.41242.81885.6453647706220.0133858340.0533858341.471.523385834FF19.224321.224153444.9210293068638.1054238491060.46595360247732162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025246-3951.99834.64643.32285.5094891774390.0133858340.0533858341.461.513385834FF19.998324.998153444.868223479838.0404545410320.4969350931113162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-28 04:00:04FORECAST2025246-3952.53836.24844.39385.1433873944020.0870079210.1870079211.491.677007921FF20.538326.538153444.7258532712737.8654656093820.51857222871367163122126DRYL
2025-05-28 00:00:03FORECAST2025246-3950.91836.6843.79982.954793025890.0417323060.1117323061.511.621732306FF18.918315.918153443.8719824933536.8213084377270.45375138461084162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 20:00:02FORECAST2025246-3951.3536.89644.12387.2116330977970.0484252230.1184252231.521.638425223FF19.35316.35153445.5284198442938.8552610861010.4709880268867162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025246-3950.28835.74443.01687.2262002302570.1437008650.2937008651.51.793700865FF18.288316.288153445.5340575671438.8622429147510.42877869607198162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 12:00:03FORECAST2025246-3951.94439.09245.51884.3516394222590.1330709380.1730709381.491.663070938FF19.944317.944153444.4175040109237.4873450512690.49477082478121162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025246-3948.32636.57242.44984.7080224087010.1283465260.1683465261.491.658346526FF16.326316.326153444.5563754650637.6574914148250.35323337432546162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025246-3948.36235.5141.93685.0830915245340.0988189510.1188189511.491.608818951FF16.362316.362153444.7023926230137.8366543727230.3545784549846162122125DRYL
2025-05-27 00:00:03FORECAST2025246-3949.0137.52643.26886.2480024793380.1275591240.3575591241.431.787559124FF17.01317.01153445.1550150570138.3937308423260.37908530064851162122125DRYL
2025-05-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025246-3948.84838.24643.54787.3588685328260.1275591240.3575591241.411.767559124FF16.848323.848153445.5853928098738.9258357506250.37290841386088162122125DRYL
2025-05-26 16:00:03FORECAST2025246-3948.7438.15643.44887.3716519956650.0685039740.2985039741.381.678503974FF16.74320.74153445.590338384238.9319639779350.36880844980989162122125DRYL
2025-05-26 12:00:03FORECAST2025246-3958.35239.0248.68683.92073200.081.341.42FF26.352347.352153444.2494247092537.2817369121790.73588627345027164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-26 08:00:03FORECAST2025246-3958.35239.0248.68684.076499200.081.41.48FF26.352344.352153444.3102043332937.356046539180.73588627345027164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025246-3958.08240.47849.2882.95721128333300.121.451.57FF26.082350.082153443.8729285881236.8224603198370.72693990704422164122127DRYL
2025-05-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025246-3950.95434.6142.78285.7123745934620.03937010.05937011.461.5193701FF18.954314.954153444.9470648691638.1374694983270.45518490133411162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-25 20:00:03FORECAST2025246-3950.91834.62842.77389.691230979220.03937010.05937011.441.4993701FF18.918315.918153446.4850675412240.0457953216130.45375138461084162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-25 16:00:03FORECAST2025246-3953.18637.1345.15889.3182465510980.03937010.04937011.411.4593701FF21.186321.186153446.341552023639.8664447896430.54445917002537163121123DRYL
2025-05-25 12:00:03FORECAST2025246-3970.32237.97654.14985.9781584001.311.31FF38.322343.322153445.0502871528638.2646040847940.96678463652279165121118DRYL
2025-05-25 08:00:03FORECAST2025246-3970.32237.97654.14984.2869576001.331.33FF38.322359.322153444.3922860195137.4564737694930.96678463652279165121118DRYL
2025-05-25 04:00:04FORECAST2025246-3952.89837.7645.32984.68958245001.321.32FF20.898342.898153444.5491930655937.648685539210.53297057281011163121123DRYL
2025-05-25 00:00:03FORECAST2025246-3961.08845.53653.31282.5315608001.311.31FF29.088365.088153443.7063118239336.619774451640.81744752635767164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-24 20:00:03FORECAST2025246-3960.99846.29253.64587.0042544001.331.33FF28.998353.998153445.4481382078138.7558831386390.81504279048669164121123.5DRYL
2025-05-24 16:00:03FORECAST2025246-3944.13236.1440.13688.28739040.0204724520.1104724521.321.430472452FF12.132330.132153445.9441952419639.3712492619410.21242765543356161122124DRYL
2025-05-24 12:00:03FORECAST2025246-3935.25833.13434.19687.78279520.1661418220.1761418221.331.506141822FF3.258312.258153445.7493129100239.1291206457210.045405907545225161122124DRYL
2025-05-24 08:00:03FORECAST2025246-3935.25833.13434.19687.92242480.1661418220.1761418221.351.526141822FF3.258312.258153445.8032649806839.1961040408590.045405907545225161122124DRYL
2025-05-24 04:00:06FORECAST2025246-3943.37641.05442.21586.731906755858001.351.35FF11.376339.376153445.3426411628138.6254164277410.19105619752765161121122DRYL