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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 28, 2025

[ Friday, June 27, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, June 29, 2025 ]

DAY 271 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/29/2025 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -270

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.21 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.32 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.09 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.11 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 5 in
SWE DAY: 178
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 0.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -14

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-29 04:00:04OBSERVATION2025271-140NAN000.030.03FF-32-270178NAN NAN5.1222243113713E-816 1111527.5DRYL
2025-06-29 00:00:01FORECAST2025271-1454.48237.97646.2290000.030.03FF22.482-215.518178424.9781614678300.372350210052451621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025271-1454.15837.95846.0580000.030.03FF22.158-215.842178424.9781614678300.361187969726941621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 08:00:01FORECAST2025271-1454.33837.43645.8870000.030.03FF22.338-215.662178424.9781614678300.367375329422441621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 04:00:03FORECAST2025271-1454.12236.55445.338NAN000.030.03FF22.122-215.878178NANNAN0.359954781574151621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025271-1454.91438.58846.751000.030.030.06FF22.914-167.086178424.9781614678300.387400038295071621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 20:00:01FORECAST2025271-1454.69838.91246.805000.030.030.06FF22.698-166.302178424.9781614678300.379852385161191621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025271-1455.02239.61447.31800.0027559070.0327559070.030.062755907FF23.022-165.978178424.9781614678300.391190081147511621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 12:00:01FORECAST2025271-1455.20239.32647.264000.030.030.06FF23.202-165.798178424.9781614678300.397529666773441621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 08:00:02FORECAST2025271-1455.29239.27247.282000.020.030.05FF23.292-166.708178424.9781614678300.400709750760171621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 04:00:03FORECAST2025271-1456.19240.02848.11NAN0.0007874020.0307874020.030.060787402FF24.192-164.808178NANNAN0.432839319344551621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025271-1456.24640.92848.58700.0015748040.0715748040.030.101574804FF24.246-117.754178424.9781614678300.434783542119241621115210DRYL
2025-06-26 20:00:01FORECAST2025271-1455.99440.26248.12800.0027559070.0627559070.030.092755907FF23.994-118.006178424.9781614678300.425724748637971621115210DRYL
2025-06-26 16:00:02FORECAST2025271-1456.58840.40648.497000.040.030.07FF24.588-117.412178424.9781614678300.447131685925951621115210DRYL
2025-06-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025271-1456.64240.17248.40700.0023622060.0523622060.030.082362206FF24.642-118.358178424.9781614678300.449086402907621621115210DRYL
2025-06-26 08:00:01FORECAST2025271-1456.78639.90248.34400.0003937010.0503937010.030.080393701FF24.786-118.214178424.9781614678300.454304898597251621115210DRYL
2025-06-26 04:00:03FORECAST2025271-1456.06638.82247.444NAN0.0007874020.0407874020.030.070787402FF24.066-118.934178NANNAN0.428309195662671621115210DRYL
2025-06-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025271-1456.40838.71447.56100.0007874020.0407874020.030.070787402FF24.408-67.592178424.9781614678300.440625494041491621115210DRYL
2025-06-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025271-1456.71438.76847.741000.030.030.06FF24.714-68.286178424.9781614678300.451694607431841621115210DRYL
2025-06-25 16:00:02FORECAST2025271-1457.72238.64248.182000.040.030.07FF25.722-67.278178424.9781614678300.488377427283411621115210DRYL
2025-06-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025271-1456.04838.2147.12900.0015748040.0815748040.030.111574804FF24.048-68.952178424.9781614678300.427662791090331621115210DRYL
2025-06-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025271-1455.65238.1246.88600.0015748040.0615748040.030.091574804FF23.652-67.348178424.9781614678300.413493978581661621115210DRYL
2025-06-25 04:00:04FORECAST2025271-1454.75237.00445.878NAN0.0015748040.0415748040.030.071574804FF22.752-70.248178NANNAN0.381735139004821621115210DRYL
2025-06-25 00:00:02FORECAST2025271-1455.88636.69846.292000.060.030.09FF23.886-11.114178424.9781614678300.421854086550091621115210DRYL
2025-06-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025271-1456.49836.48246.49000.060.030.09FF24.498-9.502178424.9781614678300.443876699285431621115210DRYL
2025-06-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025271-1456.33636.6846.508000.050.030.08FF24.336-10.664178424.9781614678300.438027397513691621115210DRYL
2025-06-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025271-1456.04836.7746.40900.0003937010.0303937010.040.070393701FF24.048-11.952178424.9781614678300.427662791090331621115210DRYL
2025-06-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025271-1456.7537.00446.87700.0003937010.0203937010.030.050393701FF24.75-10.25178424.9781614678300.452999499160661621115210DRYL
2025-06-24 04:00:04FORECAST2025271-1455.9437.27446.607NAN0.0027559070.0127559070.040.052755907FF23.94-11.06178NANNAN0.423788498604121621115210DRYL
2025-06-24 00:00:02FORECAST2025271-1454.24836.87845.563000.040.030.07FF22.24843.248178424.9781614678300.364277230168291621115210DRYL
2025-06-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025271-1453.27636.82445.05000.040.030.07FF21.27641.276178424.9781614678300.331418325702511621115210DRYL
2025-06-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025271-1455.25636.44645.851000.050.040.09FF23.25643.256178424.9781614678300.399436914739751621115210DRYL
2025-06-23 12:00:02FORECAST2025271-1457.5637.23847.399000.030.040.07FF25.5646.56178424.9781614678300.482467173809331621115210DRYL
2025-06-23 08:00:02FORECAST2025271-1456.08437.34646.715000.020.030.05FF24.08443.084178424.9781614678300.428955792621311621115210DRYL
2025-06-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025271-1456.69638.53447.615NAN00.020.040.06FF24.69644.696178NANNAN0.451042356319991621115210DRYL
2025-06-23 00:00:02FORECAST2025271-1455.6737.72446.697000.070.050.12FF23.6789.67178424.9781614678300.414135724605321621115210DRYL
2025-06-22 20:00:03FORECAST2025271-1455.63438.3947.012000.070.050.12FF23.63490.634178424.9781614678300.41285246351861621115210DRYL
2025-06-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025271-1455.36437.99446.679000.050.040.09FF23.36493.364178424.9781614678300.403258574346061621115210DRYL
2025-06-22 12:00:03FORECAST2025271-1453.90637.5845.74300.0043307110.0443307110.040.084330711FF21.90685.906178424.9781614678300.352586617879651621115210DRYL
2025-06-22 08:00:02FORECAST2025271-1455.29237.50846.400.0043307110.0443307110.060.104330711FF23.29287.292178424.9781614678300.400709750760171621115210DRYL
2025-06-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025271-1455.50837.38246.445NAN0.0055118140.0555118140.080.135511814FF23.50886.508178NANNAN0.408368463835641621115210DRYL
2025-06-22 00:00:03FORECAST2025271-1458.85637.86848.36200.0051181130.0351181130.420.455118113FF26.856130.856178424.9781614678300.529747957820351631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-21 20:00:02FORECAST2025271-1458.8238.01248.41600.0051181130.0351181130.430.465118113FF26.82132.82178424.9781614678300.528437175315881631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-21 16:00:02FORECAST2025271-1458.33438.04848.19100.0051181130.0951181130.420.515118113FF26.334127.334178424.9781614678300.510717240547631631125225DRYL
2025-06-21 12:00:03FORECAST2025271-1460.3539.48849.919000.270.420.69FF28.35138.35178424.9781614678300.583694625801221631125225DRYL
2025-06-21 08:00:02FORECAST2025271-1460.9840.04650.513000.270.560.83FF28.98140.98178424.9781614678300.606037751622371631125225DRYL
2025-06-21 04:00:04FORECAST2025271-1460.60241.43251.017NAN00.310.480.79FF28.602141.602178NANNAN0.592668711386621631125225DRYL
2025-06-21 00:00:03FORECAST2025271-1462.83441.6352.232000.20.740.94FF30.834182.834178424.9781614678300.66955024238211631125225DRYL
2025-06-20 20:00:03FORECAST2025271-1462.6942.94452.817000.20.670.87FF30.69189.69178424.9781614678300.66476153106511631125225DRYL
2025-06-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025271-1463.06844.04253.555000.20.650.85FF31.068192.068178424.9781614678300.677272773219751631125225DRYL
2025-06-20 12:00:03FORECAST2025271-1460.60241.57651.089000.050.680.73FF28.602186.602178424.9781614678300.592668711386621631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025271-1456.28238.69647.489000.050.730.78FF24.282169.282178424.9781614678300.436080570224421621115210DRYL
2025-06-20 04:00:04FORECAST2025271-1455.97638.01246.994NAN00.090.750.84FF23.976167.976178NANNAN0.425079130549741621125220DRYL
2025-06-20 00:00:03FORECAST2025271-1458.58639.05648.8210000.720.72FF26.586224.586178424.9781614678300.519910212261241631215215DRYL
2025-06-19 20:00:03FORECAST2025271-1459.88239.05649.4690000.80.8FF27.882227.882178424.9781614678300.566915650188181631215215DRYL
2025-06-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025271-1461.3440.87451.1070000.870.87FF29.34231.34178424.9781614678300.618655307825361631215215DRYL
2025-06-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025271-1465.94838.49852.22300.0185039470.6285039470.851.478503947FF33.948227.948178424.9781614678300.765365791273451641235252.5DRYMH
2025-06-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025271-1462.04240.31651.17900.0185039470.6285039470.791.418503947FF30.042240.042178424.9781614678300.642889389930341631235245DRYM
2025-06-19 04:00:04FORECAST2025271-1459.91839.3849.649NAN0.0188976480.6788976480.841.518897648FF27.918233.918178NANNAN0.568211036744981631235245DRYM
2025-06-19 00:00:03FORECAST2025271-1441.43238.24639.839000.030.870.9FF9.432279.432178424.9781614678300.0641428225168371611215210DRYL
2025-06-18 20:00:04FORECAST2025271-1441.43238.24639.839000.030.940.97FF9.432284.432178424.9781614678300.0641428225168371611215210DRYL
2025-06-18 16:00:03FORECAST2025271-1447.01241.16244.087000.030.991.02FF15.012287.012178424.9781614678300.156393034571761611215210DRYL
2025-06-18 12:00:03FORECAST2025271-1442.65638.3940.523000.011.061.07FF10.656287.656178424.9781614678300.0794768137106171611215210DRYL
2025-06-18 08:00:03FORECAST2025271-1442.65638.3940.523000.011.091.1FF10.656281.656178424.9781614678300.0794768137106171611215210DRYL
2025-06-18 04:00:05FORECAST2025271-1439.54236.7738.156NAN0.027559070.167559071.091.25755907FF7.542273.542178NANNAN0.0450920824256091611225220DRYL