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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 22, 2025

[ Saturday, June 21, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, June 23, 2025 ]

DAY 265 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/23/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 141

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.76 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 21 in
SWE DAY: 172
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 0.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -20

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-23 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025265-200NAN000.030.03FF-32141172NAN NAN2.1944280337305E-816 1111527.5DRYL
2025-06-23 00:00:01FORECAST2025265-2045.57232.07238.82200.0125984320.0125984320.030.042598432FF13.572186.572172420.9902541606400.14641581197212161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-22 12:00:02FORECAST2025265-2046.1332.52239.32600.0125984320.0125984320.030.042598432FF14.13187.13172420.9902541606400.15917397713954161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-22 08:00:01FORECAST2025265-2046.431.8239.1100.023622060.023622060.030.05362206FF14.4187.4172420.9902541606400.16560048251038161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-22 04:00:03FORECAST2025265-2046.61631.56839.092NAN0.0255905650.0255905650.030.055590565FF14.616187.616172NANNAN0.17086051548471161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-22 00:00:02FORECAST2025265-2048.0233.11640.56800.0299212760.3499212760.030.379921276FF16.02226.02172420.9902541606400.207603579680581611225220DRYL
2025-06-21 20:00:01FORECAST2025265-2048.4733.54841.00900.0358267910.3558267910.030.385826791FF16.47227.47172420.9902541606400.220300179498361611225220DRYL
2025-06-21 16:00:01FORECAST2025265-2047.96634.35841.16200.0488189240.3688189240.030.398818924FF15.966226.966172420.9902541606400.206109537329931611225220DRYL
2025-06-21 12:00:02FORECAST2025265-2047.71434.46641.0900.0547244390.3747244390.030.404724439FF15.714226.714172420.9902541606400.199221921264541611225220DRYL
2025-06-21 08:00:01FORECAST2025265-2048.63234.05241.34200.0645669640.5245669640.030.554566964FF16.632227.632172420.9902541606400.224977508415481611235230DRYL
2025-06-21 04:00:03FORECAST2025265-2048.50634.37641.441NAN0.0500000270.4400000270.030.470000027FF16.506227.506172NANNAN0.221334749790831611225220DRYL
2025-06-21 00:00:02FORECAST2025265-2048.57833.841.18900.0244094620.7044094620.030.734409462FF16.578264.578172420.9902541606400.223412188757591611235230DRYL
2025-06-20 20:00:02FORECAST2025265-2048.5634.53841.54900.0401575020.6301575020.030.660157502FF16.56265.56172420.9902541606400.222891793344531611235230DRYL
2025-06-20 16:00:01FORECAST2025265-2048.09233.81840.95500.0566929440.6066929440.030.636692944FF16.092264.092172420.9902541606400.209605539046731611235230DRYL
2025-06-20 12:00:02FORECAST2025265-2047.64233.6240.63100.0685039740.6385039740.030.668503974FF15.642263.642172420.9902541606400.197279733927551611235230DRYL
2025-06-20 08:00:02FORECAST2025265-2047.08433.69240.38800.0578740470.6878740470.030.717874047FF15.084261.084172420.9902541606400.182618595491361611235230DRYL
2025-06-20 04:00:03FORECAST2025265-2047.35433.42240.388NAN0.074803190.714803190.030.74480319FF15.354261.354172NANNAN0.189625966369711611235230DRYL
2025-06-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025265-2048.25433.1740.71200.0633858610.6933858610.030.723385861FF16.254309.254172420.9902541606400.214151163479231611235230DRYL
2025-06-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025265-2047.82233.76440.79300.1169291970.7669291970.030.796929197FF15.822309.822172420.9902541606400.202156656908541611235230DRYL
2025-06-19 16:00:01FORECAST2025265-2049.3733.5341.4500.1185040010.7985040010.030.828504001FF17.37311.37172420.9902541606400.246981824377651611235230DRYL
2025-06-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025265-2047.3933.24240.31600.0811024060.7511024060.030.781102406FF15.39308.39172420.9902541606400.190572595142611611235230DRYL
2025-06-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025265-2047.91233.9840.94600.0610236550.6910236550.030.721023655FF15.912312.912172420.9902541606400.204621876195271611235230DRYL
2025-06-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025265-2047.71434.55641.135NAN0.0673228710.7273228710.030.757322871FF15.714313.714172NANNAN0.199221921264541611235230DRYL
2025-06-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025265-2048.57834.2541.41400.1011811570.8211811570.050.871181157FF16.578361.578172420.9902541606400.223412188757591611235230DRYL
2025-06-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025265-2048.97433.40441.18900.1000000540.8700000540.070.940000054FF16.974361.974172420.9902541606400.235034067075231611235230DRYL
2025-06-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025265-2047.80433.76440.78400.106299270.916299270.070.98629927FF15.804360.804172420.9902541606400.201665749658981611235230DRYL
2025-06-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025265-2047.2134.75440.98200.1318898350.9718898350.071.041889835FF15.21360.21172420.9902541606400.185868394204391611235230DRYL
2025-06-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025265-2046.5833.99840.28900.1326772371.0126772370.061.072677237FF14.58358.58172420.9902541606400.1699765151931611245240DRYM
2025-06-18 04:00:04FORECAST2025265-2046.14834.4340.289NAN0.1354331441.0154331440.051.065433144FF14.148359.148172NANNAN0.159597272834361611245240DRYM
2025-06-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025265-2046.00434.03440.01927.8538132430290.1070866720.8770866720.050.927086672FF14.004413.004172433.0738954419212.062759404070.15623146300602161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025265-2044.92433.87239.39831.5394396806310.1188977020.8688977020.040.908897702FF12.924411.924172434.6097135711113.7073468457920.1324822921487161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025265-2044.81634.19639.50631.4134776591340.1192914030.8492914030.050.899291403FF12.816409.816172434.557461541313.6509611097370.13025169981723161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-17 12:00:03FORECAST2025265-2042.60232.23437.41830.3633667809390.2570867530.8270867530.060.887086753FF10.602406.602172434.1211994306513.1813812056940.090139595776003161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025265-2047.04832.32439.68630.6055381332480.2350394970.8250394970.060.885039497FF15.048413.048172434.2219112881613.2895952642220.18169662319338161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025265-2046.43632.28839.36230.0855836562120.2354331980.7354331980.050.785433198FF14.436410.436172434.005601387313.0573118278020.16646982379438161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-17 00:00:03FORECAST2025265-2048.41631.7340.07329.2040688658790.1440945660.7340945660.080.814094566FF16.416410.416172433.6382228972912.664000524370.21875352495833161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025265-2045.5931.98238.78633.0923622500980.1440945660.7340945660.070.804094566FF13.59406.59172435.2525309804514.4035344254770.14681636647121161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-16 16:00:03FORECAST2025265-2046.18432.3639.27232.5745620072340.1314961340.7414961340.110.851496134FF14.184411.184172435.0384742428914.1711877547570.16044606657511161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025265-2043.732.8138.25532.3438211784240.0728346850.8728346850.070.942834685FF11.7409.7172434.942996105914.0677184888570.10871346394127161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025265-2044.09633.31438.70531.9774639039010.0728346850.8728346850.070.942834685FF12.096414.096172434.7912863013813.9035226634330.11604319470622161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025265-2043.50233.6238.56129.2863538829020.1098425790.7698425790.060.829842579FF11.502414.502172433.6725506689912.7006877881920.10517567826332161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-16 00:00:03FORECAST2025265-2042.69233.4438.06627.9093373640350.1318898351.0418898350.061.101889835FF10.692406.692172433.0971394372312.0874541759520.0915673936477971611341210DRYL
2025-06-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025265-2042.02632.97237.49931.8869703255370.1295276290.9995276290.071.069527629FF10.026403.026172434.7537908527513.8629812278370.0813899102455831611341210DRYL
2025-06-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025265-2042.94434.53838.74131.35766560.1173228980.9873228980.071.057322898FF10.944407.944172434.5343040320213.6259813975650.095653986897773161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-15 12:00:03FORECAST2025265-2044.72633.00838.86731.1031297806940.019685050.569685050.050.61968505FF12.726410.726172434.4286505320813.5120906979510.12841276986317161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-15 08:00:04FORECAST2025265-2044.90632.84638.87630.7433818003280.019685050.569685050.050.61968505FF12.906410.906172434.2792087064413.3512115212060.13210871554741161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-15 04:00:05FORECAST2025265-2049.85633.47641.66630.3377201164350.0185039470.5585039470.040.598503947FF17.856423.856172434.1105301180713.1699237623190.26207725991121162133129DRYL
2025-06-15 00:00:03FORECAST2025265-2051.02634.44842.73731.0966461525770.043307110.683307110.030.71330711FF19.026424.026172434.4259583958213.5091903077290.30025758326442162133129DRYL
2025-06-14 20:00:03FORECAST2025265-2051.02633.72842.37732.9448643369330.0413386050.7313386050.030.761338605FF19.026426.026172435.1915845523914.3373277136540.30025758326442162133129DRYL
2025-06-14 16:00:03FORECAST2025265-2051.3533.74642.54832.7307175583260.0476378210.5976378210.030.627637821FF19.35424.35172435.1030580314614.2412353011910.31125814889624162133129DRYL
2025-06-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025265-2053.25836.0544.65429.3349032028980.0846457150.5546457150.050.604645715FF21.258431.258172433.6928011730812.7223363422060.37921469033313162133129DRYL
2025-06-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025265-2053.25836.0544.65429.2937800577110.0846457150.5546457150.050.604645715FF21.258435.258172433.6756483774112.7039990599530.37921469033313162133129DRYL
2025-06-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025265-2053.3333.22443.27730.5749932564620.0421260070.5621260070.040.602126007FF21.33424.33172434.2092119968213.2759437286960.38187020483138162133129DRYL
2025-06-14 00:00:03FORECAST2025265-2047.89431.40639.6532.8879806412280.0287401730.4987401730.050.548740173FF15.894418.894172435.1680739957514.3117991932530.20412740947805161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025265-2047.76831.1939.47933.6019309624250.0283464720.4983464720.050.548346472FF15.768432.768172435.4629101595514.6323946438780.2006860754068161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025265-2047.9331.20839.56933.4022703398780.0283464720.4383464720.050.488346472FF15.93429.93172435.3805112496814.5426975374760.20511705339784161132125DRYL
2025-06-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025265-2049.74832.41441.08135.6382468983420.8956697751.6456697750.051.695669775FF17.748434.748172436.3009051506815.548999379730.258682379389581621351215DRYL
2025-06-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025265-2049.74829.91239.8341.2811767869660.8956697751.6456697750.051.695669775FF17.748427.748172438.6005916298218.1059485619390.258682379389581621351215DRYL
2025-06-13 04:00:05FORECAST2025265-2056.06630.41643.24140.9386016258190.8787406321.6687406320.051.718740632FF24.066433.066172438.4619183738817.9500178044010.485775076820291621351215DRYL
2025-06-13 00:00:03FORECAST2025265-2033.47628.430.93844.163548592180.358267911.148267910.121.26826791FF1.476403.476172439.7625994924619.4214769317080.0129656213639091611341210DRYL
2025-06-12 20:00:03FORECAST2025265-2033.47628.27430.87545.9733097684490.3393702621.1093702620.121.229370262FF1.476406.476172440.4878562446520.2506846643750.0129656213639091611341210DRYL
2025-06-12 16:00:03FORECAST2025265-2031.9127.28429.59747.4227436398990.3393702621.3593702620.111.469370262FF-0.09409.91172441.0663133504920.9165747062160.00865963995043071611341210DRYL
2025-06-12 12:00:03FORECAST2025265-2033.47632.1832.82837.1243763604730.1019685590.4019685590.170.571968559FF1.476422.476172436.9097545217216.2200021624260.012965621363909161132125DRYL
2025-06-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025265-2033.47632.1832.82837.134895770590.1019685590.4019685590.170.571968559FF1.476407.476172436.9140560111916.2247579306810.012965621363909161132125DRYL
2025-06-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025265-2032.86432.84632.85535.98960761192700.260.150.41FF0.864412.864172436.4450609308815.7074864870660.011101523123147161132125DRYL