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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 21, 2025

[ Friday, June 20, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, June 22, 2025 ]

DAY 264 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/22/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 193

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.53 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.73 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.76 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.76 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 23 in
SWE DAY: 171
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 0.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -21

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-22 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025264-210NAN000.030.03FF-32193171NAN NAN9.4223427393736E-916 1111527.5DRYL
2025-06-22 00:00:02FORECAST2025264-2136.66228.95832.810.484004384233950.3153545010.3153545010.030.345354501FF4.662229.662171420.534899838930.203540735245430.0270831757655481611224216DRYL
2025-06-21 12:00:02FORECAST2025264-2137.86828.47233.170.279914949430730.3196852120.3196852120.030.349685212FF5.868230.868171420.442932212230.11768826210870.0356504547945061611224216DRYL
2025-06-21 08:00:01FORECAST2025264-2138.0328.65233.3410.111310530645040.4590553660.4590553660.030.489055366FF6.03231.03171420.366919020610.0467912648218050.0369541072150261611224216DRYL
2025-06-21 04:00:03FORECAST2025264-2138.4828.81433.647NAN0.3862206810.3862206810.030.416220681FF6.48231.48171NANNAN0.0407802537147411611225220DRYL
2025-06-21 00:00:02FORECAST2025264-2138.44428.52633.4850.18677271350410.437008110.677008110.030.70700811FF6.444268.444171420.400944225530.0785194251126880.0404628151228861611234224DRYL
2025-06-20 20:00:02FORECAST2025264-2138.9329.80434.3670.223681428879050.3744096510.5944096510.030.624409651FF6.93268.93171420.417583651370.0940396058370150.044920677394321611234224DRYL
2025-06-20 16:00:01FORECAST2025264-2138.01229.33633.6740.111639023885920.3334647470.5534647470.030.583464747FF6.012268.012171420.367067149320.0469293690503390.0368073650929051611234224DRYL
2025-06-20 12:00:01FORECAST2025264-2138.26429.37233.8180.00547906652490290.3511812920.5711812920.030.601181292FF6.264268.264171420.319189597620.00230295680149860.0389054971004231611235230DRYL
2025-06-20 08:00:02FORECAST2025264-2137.72429.15633.440.33092349055440.3677167340.6277167340.030.657716734FF5.724265.724171420.465922361280.139142050686970.0345234330470651611234224DRYL
2025-06-20 04:00:03FORECAST2025264-2137.88628.8533.368NAN0.4204726680.6404726680.030.670472668FF5.886265.886171NANNAN0.0357934230246341611235230DRYL
2025-06-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025264-2137.65229.19233.4220.725911659959030.3685041360.6285041360.030.658504136FF5.652312.652171420.64384737120.305350273496780.0339709625332061611234224DRYL
2025-06-19 20:00:01FORECAST2025264-2137.83229.73233.7820.574388303286310.4129923490.6529923490.030.682992349FF5.832313.832171420.575613785550.241573713205880.0353659183048351611234224DRYL
2025-06-19 16:00:01FORECAST2025264-2137.79629.6633.7280.768324510209470.4657482830.6757482830.030.705748283FF5.796313.796171420.662941906850.323205648803860.0350832414445351611234224DRYL
2025-06-19 12:00:01FORECAST2025264-2137.4929.19233.3410.655502720543480.4696852930.6696852930.030.699685293FF5.49313.49171420.612144275420.275712404866170.0327543863411531611234224DRYL
2025-06-19 08:00:01FORECAST2025264-2138.2129.87634.04300.4307088940.6307088940.030.660708894FF6.21317.21171420.3167182186500.0384479081199551611235230DRYL
2025-06-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025264-2138.71429.9334.322NAN0.4866144360.6566144360.030.686614436FF6.714317.714171NANNAN0.0428930092805021611235230DRYL
2025-06-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025264-2138.60630.18234.39400.5570869150.7170869150.050.767086915FF6.606364.606171420.3167182186500.0419071837891911611235230DRYL
2025-06-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025264-2138.58830.14634.36700.5885829950.7685829950.070.838582995FF6.588364.588171420.3167182186500.0417446715209421611235230DRYL
2025-06-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025264-2138.17430.234.18700.6283467960.8083467960.070.878346796FF6.174365.174171420.3167182186500.0381452856043921611235230DRYL
2025-06-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025264-2138.96630.1134.53800.6464570420.8364570420.070.906457042FF6.966364.966171420.3167182186500.0452659819649591611235230DRYL
2025-06-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025264-2138.13829.37233.7550.697899929928340.6846460390.8846460390.060.944646039FF6.138364.138171420.631235183730.29355850956040.0378446026889091611234224DRYL
2025-06-18 04:00:04FORECAST2025264-2138.08429.37233.728NAN0.6641735870.8841735870.050.934173587FF6.084365.084171NANNAN0.0373971966164841611235230DRYL
2025-06-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025264-2137.72429.67833.70128.9003956430290.6322838060.7722838060.050.822283806FF5.724418.724171432.8856091978912.5105653739930.034523433047065161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025264-2137.61629.3933.50332.5076956806310.6129924570.7529924570.040.792992457FF5.616418.616171434.3906549481614.1210392175650.033697458051821161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025264-2136.87828.86832.87332.3514264591340.606299540.726299540.050.77629954FF4.878416.878171434.3257413118514.0510572793590.028477447420545161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-17 12:00:03FORECAST2025264-2135.8727.62631.74831.0485259809390.4582679640.5682679640.060.628267964FF3.87415.87171433.7835173086913.4683388072620.02244786158453161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025264-2136.03228.16632.09931.3890024617350.4940947550.5940947550.060.654094755FF4.032418.032171433.9253855735513.6204849959780.023337462167893161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025264-2136.0528.18432.11730.7449564406760.4149608540.5049608540.050.554960854FF4.05416.05171433.6569237653313.3327632313630.023438109215452161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025264-2135.45627.64431.5529.925125836370.4944884560.5944884560.080.674488456FF3.456414.456171433.3145526062512.9669925134720.020303206047805161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025264-2135.00628.07631.54133.6791788938390.4944884560.5944884560.070.664488456FF3.006413.006171434.8764648800614.6462822574160.018171224852726161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-16 16:00:03FORECAST2025264-2135.67228.6732.17133.3027387345850.5338585560.6138585560.110.723858556FF3.672416.672171434.7205140771114.4773837028750.021399483563125161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025264-2136.06828.52632.29733.0042770140410.7133862120.8033862120.070.873386212FF4.068418.068171434.5967619867414.3435519220160.023539120337371161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025264-2137.07628.11232.59432.6990472131840.7133862120.8033862120.070.873386212FF5.076422.076171434.470106558514.2067585270740.029807352426428161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025264-2137.6729.1233.39530.1201954829020.5759845630.6559845630.060.715984563FF5.67422.67171433.3960806945613.0539746720440.034108395899083161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-16 00:00:03FORECAST2025264-2137.41829.04833.23328.6790221640350.7885831030.9085831030.060.968583103FF5.418416.418171432.7927973912.4120742287830.032225302073835161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025264-2136.44628.52632.48632.5439871255370.7610240330.8710240330.070.941024033FF4.446413.446171434.4057265890814.1372943733750.025746192975971161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025264-2137.97630.59634.28632.25595920.7342523650.8742523650.070.944252365FF5.976416.976171434.2860718975914.0083138162570.03651530604995161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-15 12:00:03FORECAST2025264-2137.8528.74233.29631.9587387255320.3137796970.5537796970.050.603779697FF5.85417.85171434.1625065615313.8752861116220.03550795357123161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-15 08:00:03FORECAST2025264-2138.44429.31833.88131.6204434094390.3137796970.5537796970.050.603779697FF6.444418.444171434.0217513639913.7239602274710.040462815122886161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-15 04:00:05FORECAST2025264-2138.7529.42634.08831.4455410238390.3578742090.5378742090.040.577874209FF6.75425.75171433.9489319406513.6457589415910.04322573906475161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025264-2141.37830.16435.77132.5303258281090.4807089210.6407089210.030.670708921FF9.378425.378171434.4000532891514.1311752732440.0736567056887161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025264-2142.42230.90236.66234.3587828882090.5153546090.6853546090.030.715354609FF10.422427.422171435.1576324073114.951486614030.089509916386843161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025264-2144.2430.88437.56234.1362631583260.358267910.548267910.030.57826791FF12.24425.24171435.0656244035914.8515146457820.12291969771953161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025264-2145.30231.85638.57931.0588712028980.2389765070.4689765070.050.518976507FF13.302430.302171433.7878297184913.4729603326110.14605224960908161132125DRYL
2025-06-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025264-2145.28429.10237.19331.0177480577110.2389765070.4689765070.050.518976507FF13.284434.284171433.7706868493413.4545898795130.14563735523183161132125DRYL
2025-06-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025264-2141.97228.05835.01532.0513791713920.2657481750.5157481750.040.555748175FF9.972422.972171434.2010305634413.9167418671980.082391471972667161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-14 00:00:03FORECAST2025264-2138.40828.56233.48533.8876944754050.4208663690.4808663690.040.520866369FF6.408423.408171434.9627841054114.7398859359360.040147379456108161132125DRYL
2025-06-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025264-2138.13831.87435.00634.5813208006690.4177167610.4777167610.040.517716761FF6.138437.138171435.2495959345915.0515059053760.037844602688909161132125DRYL
2025-06-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025264-2139.00231.51435.25834.3907076878480.358267910.418267910.040.45826791FF7.002434.002171435.1708284866714.9658327567640.045613411827996161132125DRYL
2025-06-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025264-2138.94831.13635.04233.357893032070.6185042710.7585042710.040.798504271FF6.948436.948171434.743372602714.5021229196820.04509306454428161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025264-2136.60829.13832.87337.1986673985760.6185042710.7585042710.040.798504271FF4.608429.608171436.3273192839316.2307948269550.026743627288253161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-13 04:00:05FORECAST2025264-2135.76229.91232.83737.5420657484290.66929170.79929170.040.8392917FF3.762428.762171436.4681866720216.3859173611380.021870785054138161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-13 00:00:03FORECAST2025264-2136.08628.23832.16240.943864656080.7582681260.8082681260.10.908268126FF4.086422.086171437.8570405453417.92755940680.023640496509672161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-12 20:00:03FORECAST2025264-2136.24828.25632.25242.9067566204580.7433074880.7933074880.10.893307488FF4.248425.248171438.6529881795918.8211770046580.024569470901165161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-12 16:00:03FORECAST2025264-2135.31228.29231.80244.2830368379850.9929139221.0229139220.111.132913922FF3.312430.312171439.208704311519.449495232590.0195990558037641611341210DRYL
2025-06-12 12:00:03FORECAST2025264-2140.69428.92234.80836.3241037149970.2972442550.2972442550.170.467244255FF8.694440.694171435.9680041208315.8361469981060.064493265287901161132125DRYL
2025-06-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025264-2140.69428.92234.80837.165301370590.2972442550.2972442550.170.467244255FF8.694425.694171436.3136254656616.2157273825260.064493265287901161132125DRYL
2025-06-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025264-2140.8230.75835.78936.0035804119270.2590552580.2590552580.150.409055258FF8.82431.82171435.8361168768815.6916606803990.066111432659861161132125DRYL
2025-06-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025264-2135.27632.95434.11537.2125082516220.2074804270.2674804270.260.527480427FF3.276419.276171436.3329993955616.2370453404620.019426287369106161132125DRYL
2025-06-11 20:00:03FORECAST2025264-2135.8732.75634.31340.7693860679220.2074804270.2674804270.260.527480427FF3.87424.87171437.7860976896217.8482704318770.02244786158453161132125DRYL
2025-06-11 16:00:04FORECAST2025264-2136.15832.61234.38539.8270198121380.0255905650.0555905650.260.315590565FF4.158435.158171437.4023883634317.4204335872270.024049671260805161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025264-2146.02237.16641.59437.54719753625100.060.290.35FF14.022448.022171436.4702908801916.3882362303830.16329775339544161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-11 08:00:04FORECAST2025264-2146.02237.16641.59437.784250400.060.250.31FF14.022447.022171436.5674607556716.4953742536840.16329775339544161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-11 04:00:05FORECAST2025264-2138.9336.7737.8538.5054238064730.0641732630.2541732630.270.524173263FF6.93426.93171436.8627160434116.8215840264980.04492067739432161132125DRYL