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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 5, 2025

[ Sunday, May 4, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, May 6, 2025 ]

DAY 217 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/06/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.72°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.35°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.04°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.750
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 254

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.14 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 129 in
SWE DAY: 124
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.75 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 57.18 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -68

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-06 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025217-6853.7200630.3499442.035128.5791391666700.141.051.19FF21.72006253.72006124444.74527597695 57.1849647335580.7496454968258316 4122127DRYL
2025-05-06 00:00:01FORECAST2025217-6750.12629.44439.785127.91858400.141.051.19FF18.126250.126125445.0699547449856.9327183919220.63522645680104163122126DRYL
2025-05-05 12:00:01FORECAST2025217-6749.29829.4839.389128.895164800.141.051.19FF17.298249.298125445.4485822104157.4161684139370.60651589318664163122126DRYL
2025-05-05 08:00:01FORECAST2025217-6749.74829.60639.677128.880109600.141.051.19FF17.748249.748125445.4427523250157.4087107401730.62220248259112163122126DRYL
2025-05-05 04:00:02FORECAST2025217-6749.51428.54439.029128.8821713166700.141.051.19FF17.514249.514125445.4435507049957.4097320138650.61406877746862163122126DRYL
2025-05-05 00:00:02FORECAST2025217-6850.2728.74239.506128.643457600.091.051.14FF18.27248.27124444.770294639957.2167885402480.6401481540883163121123DRYL
2025-05-04 20:00:01FORECAST2025217-6850.46828.38239.425128.837699200.091.051.14FF18.468247.468124444.8458261695457.3129127424060.64687759042653163121123DRYL
2025-05-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025217-6850.30629.60639.956128.857182400.091.051.14FF18.306247.306124444.8534002242357.3225557339530.64137499488751163121123DRYL
2025-05-04 12:00:01FORECAST2025217-6850.86429.340.082128.606360800.091.051.14FF18.864247.864124444.7558651800857.1984332652660.66019781503746163121123DRYL
2025-05-04 08:00:01FORECAST2025217-6850.57629.78640.181128.564245600.091.051.14FF18.576248.576124444.7394820763257.1775960016770.65052909167437163121123DRYL
2025-05-04 04:00:03FORECAST2025217-6850.10829.40839.758128.923518300.091.051.14FF18.108248.108124444.8791853610657.3553897951850.63460965594995163121123DRYL
2025-05-04 00:00:02FORECAST2025217-6849.7329.76839.749131.6843839758600.041.051.09FF17.73244.73124445.9485052070658.7244541931470.62157868076714163121123DRYL
2025-05-03 20:00:01FORECAST2025217-6849.62229.4839.551131.6631477760300.061.051.11FF17.622245.622124445.9403087303458.7139047676520.61782926835557163121123DRYL
2025-05-03 16:00:01FORECAST2025217-6848.93828.99438.966131.7431779421700.061.051.11FF16.938243.938124445.9711954436958.7536625584220.59383958234902163121123DRYL
2025-05-03 12:00:01FORECAST2025217-6849.89229.1239.506131.7867403740300.061.051.11FF17.892244.892124445.988005219758.7753054538220.62718130772646163121123DRYL
2025-05-03 08:00:01FORECAST2025217-6849.89229.13839.515131.8866007449300.071.051.12FF17.892243.892124446.0265321032958.8249231611540.62718130772646163121123DRYL
2025-05-03 04:00:03FORECAST2025217-6850.21629.42639.821131.7481639477500.091.051.14FF18.216244.216124445.9731195268958.756139667720.63830518719718163121123DRYL
2025-05-03 00:00:02FORECAST2025217-6850.1829.10239.641130.5479520504900.091.051.14FF18.18235.18124445.5092579346158.1603212428960.63707475563092163121123DRYL
2025-05-02 20:00:01FORECAST2025217-6850.12629.08439.605133.8638140470800.081.061.14FF18.126239.126124446.7873471034759.8086583512470.63522645680104163121123DRYL
2025-05-02 16:00:02FORECAST2025217-6850.43230.16440.298133.769545006500.11.061.16FF18.432241.432124446.7511598494359.7616993841830.64565739333169163122126DRYL
2025-05-02 12:00:02FORECAST2025217-6851.2630.18240.721132.2304464511700.141.061.2FF19.26241.26124446.1591156389158.9958190491910.67332106365692163122126DRYL
2025-05-02 08:00:02FORECAST2025217-6850.88230.59640.739132.1274249586900.131.061.19FF18.882241.882124446.119403709558.944608036240.66079870736821163122126DRYL
2025-05-02 04:00:03FORECAST2025217-6850.39629.82240.109132.5596525256500.111.061.17FF18.396240.396124446.2859458179159.1595099047030.64443569998129163122126DRYL
2025-05-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025217-6850.46830.61440.541131.5693727488400.11.071.17FF18.468233.468124445.9041093579658.6673239743550.64687759042653163122126DRYL
2025-05-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025217-6850.14428.77839.461135.3090952859100.121.071.19FF18.144231.144124447.3410668418260.5293150386010.63584290800344163122126DRYL
2025-05-01 16:00:02FORECAST2025217-6849.60428.43639.02135.2877802536800.091.081.17FF17.604229.604124447.3329153331360.5186771498280.61720328027276163121123DRYL
2025-05-01 12:00:02FORECAST2025217-6850.14429.5739.857133.6771808381300.111.091.2FF18.144231.144124446.7156954177559.7156947995910.63584290800344163122126DRYL
2025-05-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025217-6849.76628.68839.227133.5825653373300.121.091.21FF17.766232.766124446.6793579296759.6685745154750.62282596600848163122126DRYL
2025-05-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025217-6850.75630.41640.586133.0565732644700.141.11.24FF18.756232.756124446.4771891271659.4067248260110.65658395900658163122126DRYL
2025-05-01 00:00:03FORECAST2025217-6851.90831.92841.918133.1056849282200.11.121.22FF19.908235.908124446.4960769795559.4311661441250.69433458352695163122126DRYL
2025-04-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025217-6849.8230.95640.388135.1650871411800.11.111.21FF17.82232.82124447.2859852184460.4574491690790.62469449069817163122126DRYL
2025-04-30 16:00:02FORECAST2025217-6849.65830.239.929135.2361687025300.121.11.22FF17.658230.658124447.3131756972860.4929200914610.61908031976287163122126DRYL
2025-04-30 12:00:02FORECAST2025217-6850.73830.8340.784134.5986242077700.191.121.31FF18.738230.738124447.0691234119260.174888937020.65598024525371163122126DRYL
2025-04-30 08:00:02FORECAST2025217-6851.36830.45240.91134.7106929622200.191.131.32FF19.368231.368124447.1120520100360.230774358030.67686410080175163122126DRYL
2025-04-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025217-6851.4430.30840.874134.7053319275500.211.131.34FF19.44230.44124447.1099987123360.2281007846730.67921727498304163122126DRYL
2025-04-30 00:00:03FORECAST2025217-6850.6331.33440.982135.6906991134800.121.021.14FF18.63230.63124447.4869289577760.7198142344250.65234966001242163122126DRYL
2025-04-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025217-6851.40432.21641.81135.1181743122600.091.031.12FF19.404232.404124447.2680371961860.4340406141780.67804157961509163121123DRYL
2025-04-29 16:00:02FORECAST2025217-6851.56632.59442.08134.9908274351600.071.031.1FF19.566231.566124447.219305739760.3705041267790.68331802145727163121123DRYL
2025-04-29 12:00:03FORECAST2025217-6850.55833.15241.855135.3284409909800.151.131.28FF18.558231.558124447.3484648385960.5389703263150.64992146317691163122126DRYL
2025-04-29 08:00:03FORECAST2025217-6849.62232.97241.297135.5348637594100.151.11.25FF17.622229.622124447.4273804008160.6420090448530.61782926835557163122126DRYL
2025-04-29 04:00:04FORECAST2025217-6848.88432.3640.622135.3603852812300.191.111.3FF16.884230.884124447.3606798683560.5549139866530.59192926999144163122126DRYL
2025-04-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025217-6847.58833.11640.352135.2047850201500.241.131.37FF15.588233.588124447.301171257460.4772586991160.54552827981115163122126DRYL
2025-04-28 20:00:03FORECAST2025217-6847.37234.12440.748135.4930383514100.241.061.3FF15.372238.372124447.4113938617360.6211291473670.5377160821228163122126DRYL
2025-04-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025217-6847.42633.87240.649135.5150426691400.221.031.25FF15.426234.426124447.4198045804160.6321139087320.53967061540607163122126DRYL
2025-04-28 12:00:03FORECAST2025217-6845.1432.6338.885136.3873966821600.281.071.35FF13.14227.14124447.7528663344761.0678477963350.45668834215763162122125DRYL
2025-04-28 08:00:03FORECAST2025217-6845.69828.81437.256137.5392928638100.281.061.34FF13.698217.698124448.1915272322361.6439457230720.47690820048521162122125DRYL
2025-04-28 04:00:04FORECAST2025217-6842.49428.41835.456138.4123769125600.291.071.36FF10.494215.494124448.523157900762.0811563853630.3631760618226162122125DRYL
2025-04-28 00:00:03FORECAST2025217-6842.3528.16635.258140.126075910980.0838583130.3538583131.081.433858313FF10.35218.35124449.1719516825362.9407029985480.35826177591107162122125DRYL
2025-04-27 20:00:02FORECAST2025217-6842.3529.78636.068139.908968401330.0838583130.3538583131.11.453858313FF10.35224.35124449.0899125247262.8317063807790.35826177591107162122125DRYL
2025-04-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025217-6843.08831.98237.535139.498927929690.0838583130.3738583131.191.563858313FF11.088228.088124448.9348456649862.6259296805460.38367825838829162122125DRYL
2025-04-27 12:00:03FORECAST2025217-6846.00430.86638.435139.393767436280.0094488240.2594488241.161.419448824FF14.004225.004124448.8950506176562.5731722890910.488025170993162122125DRYL
2025-04-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025217-6846.00430.86638.435139.753743977130.0094488240.2594488241.151.409448824FF14.004222.004124449.0312295982662.7537954990120.488025170993162122125DRYL
2025-04-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025217-6846.99432.21639.605139.508916608750.0098425250.1898425251.131.319842525FF14.994225.994124448.9386250484462.6309412043270.5240114725122163122126DRYL
2025-04-27 00:00:03FORECAST2025217-6847.04832.57639.812138.815810444670.0413386050.2713386051.071.341338605FF15.048223.048124448.6761491132962.2833432663550.52597139510337163122126DRYL
2025-04-26 20:00:03FORECAST2025217-6847.04832.57639.812140.284468013130.0413386050.2713386051.041.311338605FF15.048222.048124449.231775312263.0202406142670.52597139510337163122126DRYL
2025-04-26 16:00:03FORECAST2025217-6844.04231.40637.724142.702119822140.2224410650.6424410651.161.802441065FF12.042215.042124450.1419250381464.2362069237610.41727464417864162123127.5DRYL
2025-04-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025217-6845.17634.17839.677138.57053156180.0204724520.2404724521.151.390472452FF13.176226.176124448.5831524404662.1604058833410.45799003529994162122125DRYL
2025-04-26 08:00:03FORECAST2025217-6845.17634.17839.677138.873710210680.0204724520.2404724521.121.360472452FF13.176225.176124448.6980931658162.3123689623920.45799003529994162122125DRYL
2025-04-26 04:00:05FORECAST2025217-6852.59235.56444.078138.662972543010.0098425250.2098425251.061.269842525FF20.592231.592124448.6182079343762.2067342490990.71584108852264164122127DRYL
2025-04-26 00:00:03FORECAST2025217-6837.2230.36233.791141.380229363560.0023622060.4423622061.251.692362206FF5.22201.22124449.6449784573963.570910186480.20304065948978161122124DRYL
2025-04-25 20:00:03FORECAST2025217-6837.2230.36233.791143.209655522370.0023622060.4423622061.251.692362206FF5.22203.22124450.3322832575464.4919311559130.20304065948978161122124DRYL
2025-04-25 16:00:03FORECAST2025217-6839.07436.39237.733140.646775167550.0023622060.2723622061.191.462362206FF7.074212.074124449.3685258255863.2022340191620.25406257318258162122125DRYL
2025-04-25 12:00:03FORECAST2025217-6850.39646.16648.281141.1276253289300.641.221.86FF18.396239.396124449.5498254007263.4438993258390.64443569998129163123129DRYL
2025-04-25 08:00:03FORECAST2025217-6850.39646.16648.281141.1203906453700.641.231.87FF18.396239.396124449.5470992785963.4402622636870.64443569998129163123129DRYL
2025-04-25 04:00:04FORECAST2025217-6853.56451.38652.475140.7949097105500.641.241.88FF21.564251.564124449.4244020236963.2766681046440.745099071171311641231210.5DRYL