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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 3, 2025

[ Friday, May 2, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 4, 2025 ]

DAY 215 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/04/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.76°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.84°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.202
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 253

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.09 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.09 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.14 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 130 in
SWE DAY: 122
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.25 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 57.89 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -70

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-04 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025215-7036.7599227.8400232.29997130.30485750.0899999999999180.0899999999999181.051.1399999999999FF4.75992252.75992122444.2518337424 57.8881718899170.2023158865461816 1121122DRYL
2025-05-04 00:00:02FORECAST2025215-6934.10625.73629.921133.047715975860.035433090.035433091.051.08543309FF2.106250.106123445.8972681420559.3256130861740.13002363731345161121122DRYL
2025-05-03 12:00:01FORECAST2025215-6934.7925.93430.362133.099203712460.0562992430.0562992431.051.106299243FF2.79250.79123445.9171455848659.3512169990780.14668268047719161121122DRYL
2025-05-03 08:00:01FORECAST2025215-6934.41226.31230.362133.177789818340.074803190.074803191.051.12480319FF2.412250.412123445.9474796586459.3902997159970.1373076679689161121122DRYL
2025-05-03 04:00:02FORECAST2025215-6934.28626.00630.146133.073941503420.0775590970.0775590971.051.127559097FF2.286250.286123445.9073931384759.3386543504520.13427539090409161121122DRYL
2025-05-03 00:00:02FORECAST2025215-7034.32225.68230.002131.825721537410.0775590970.0775590971.051.127559097FF2.322241.322122444.8442308373258.6419117018820.13513703825953161121122DRYL
2025-05-02 20:00:01FORECAST2025215-7034.82625.82630.326135.160143372630.074803190.084803191.051.13480319FF2.826243.826122446.1350522064560.2996776197810.14759736176197161121122DRYL
2025-05-02 16:00:01FORECAST2025215-7035.67225.8830.776135.15153726450.0858268180.0958268181.051.145826818FF3.672244.672122446.1317346620960.295389762060.1701883570825161122124DRYL
2025-05-02 12:00:01FORECAST2025215-7035.74426.25831.001133.678115992850.1311024330.1411024331.051.191102433FF3.744244.744122445.5626792643159.5619795207810.17220806251658161122124DRYL
2025-05-02 08:00:01FORECAST2025215-7035.74426.6931.217133.636890024290.1165354960.1265354961.051.176535496FF3.744244.744122445.5467265849659.5414789013170.17220806251658161122124DRYL
2025-05-02 04:00:03FORECAST2025215-7035.90626.65431.28133.998567260740.0964567450.1064567451.051.156456745FF3.906244.906122445.6866232020659.7213689563530.17680792391678161122124DRYL
2025-05-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025215-7035.88826.9631.424132.990724269450.094488240.114488241.051.16448824FF3.888237.888122445.2964697842659.220300031240.17629303551515161122124DRYL
2025-05-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025215-7035.52826.47431.001136.655653243780.1051181670.1251181671.051.175118167FF3.528235.528122446.710452241661.0455086618980.16619457186394161122124DRYL
2025-05-01 16:00:02FORECAST2025215-7035.74426.58231.163136.528462934580.0913386320.1213386321.051.171338632FF3.744235.744122446.661600543860.9820217741460.17220806251658161122124DRYL
2025-05-01 12:00:02FORECAST2025215-7036.3227.53631.928134.981645412830.1015748580.1415748581.051.191574858FF4.32236.32122446.0662286826460.2107535106770.18891113693011161122124DRYL
2025-05-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025215-7036.51827.80632.162134.869549490960.1149606920.1549606921.051.204960692FF4.518238.518122446.0229918633860.1549199752230.1948754505377161122124DRYL
2025-05-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025215-7036.21227.19431.703134.525210946570.129921330.179921331.051.22992133FF4.212237.212122445.8900991024459.9834596407440.18570570056763161122124DRYL
2025-05-01 00:00:02FORECAST2025215-7036.30227.66231.982134.872850528220.1035433630.1735433631.051.223543363FF4.302237.302122446.0242652912760.1565640645870.18837454835639161122124DRYL
2025-04-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025215-7035.79827.24831.523136.628615941260.0980315490.1580315491.051.208031549FF3.798237.798122446.7000689809261.0320121657290.17373281229515161122124DRYL
2025-04-30 16:00:02FORECAST2025215-7035.7826.81631.298136.604148144130.1244095160.1744095161.051.224409516FF3.78236.78122446.6906718846561.0197987167330.17322361321028161122124DRYL
2025-04-30 12:00:02FORECAST2025215-7035.54626.72631.136136.013988254640.1814961610.2514961611.051.301496161FF3.546235.546122446.4638382064460.7253272459310.16669046607322161122124DRYL
2025-04-30 08:00:01FORECAST2025215-7034.01624.90829.462136.237972236250.1791339550.2591339551.051.309133955FF2.016235.016122446.5499686606660.8370622324910.12793297551079161122124DRYL
2025-04-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025215-7033.54825.03429.291136.188471828750.1937008920.2737008921.051.323700892FF1.548233.548122446.5309380682260.8123660797690.11743734955817161122124DRYL
2025-04-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025215-7034.6126.70830.659137.345295113480.1185040010.1785040010.961.138504001FF2.61232.61122446.9750576922261.3899212071040.14216625454075161122124DRYL
2025-04-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025215-7033.8926.85230.371136.941231112260.0913386320.1613386320.961.121338632FF1.89231.89122446.820080503961.1880919098860.12504535188689161122124DRYL
2025-04-29 16:00:02FORECAST2025215-7033.42226.54629.984136.862789035160.074803190.144803190.961.10480319FF1.422231.422122446.789975907361.1489222156240.11471850754373161122124DRYL
2025-04-29 12:00:02FORECAST2025215-7034.53828.29231.415137.175472510830.1515748850.3215748850.961.281574885FF2.538231.538122446.9099422645461.3050824999270.14038624221208161122124DRYL
2025-04-29 08:00:03FORECAST2025215-7035.79828.00431.901137.201062228350.1515748850.2615748850.991.251574885FF3.798232.798122446.9197559796461.3178652512390.17373281229515161122124DRYL
2025-04-29 04:00:04FORECAST2025215-7036.96829.98433.476136.942916897420.1893701810.2793701811.021.299370181FF4.968234.968122446.8207274107661.1889337418570.20884920282998161122124DRYL
2025-04-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025215-7036.69829.67833.188136.764917020150.2370080020.3370080021.031.367008002FF4.698238.698122446.7524060535861.1000557424690.20039552315251161122124DRYL
2025-04-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025215-7037.50831.15434.331137.423351151410.2370080020.3370080020.961.297008002FF5.508238.508122447.0049774578161.4289219836140.22637214774385161122124DRYL
2025-04-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025215-7037.3131.17234.241137.404913069140.2192914570.3092914570.941.249291457FF5.31237.31122446.9979104666361.4197090297540.21985276310208161122124DRYL
2025-04-28 12:00:03FORECAST2025215-7036.10430.03833.071137.604237672120.2228347660.3428347660.951.292834766FF4.104234.104122447.0742905176661.5193169294890.18253414939748161122124DRYL
2025-04-28 08:00:03FORECAST2025215-7034.0726.00630.038138.225406871490.2228347660.3428347660.941.282834766FF2.07231.07122447.3120711312261.8298930306440.12918456057554161122124DRYL
2025-04-28 04:00:04FORECAST2025215-7034.5225.75430.137138.686142541610.2062993240.3162993240.961.276299324FF2.52232.52122447.4881963792162.0604117887340.13994360726648161122124DRYL
2025-04-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025215-7034.48425.84430.164140.690017494380.2456694240.3856694240.941.325669424FF2.484235.484122448.2518237317363.0645569227060.13906117718929161122124DRYL
2025-04-27 20:00:02FORECAST2025215-7035.81628.5832.198140.729364648170.2456694240.3856694240.961.345669424FF3.816236.816122448.2667790880963.0842990139480.17424296022971161122124DRYL
2025-04-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025215-7036.15828.83232.495140.58402317750.2740158960.5040158960.961.464015896FF4.158239.158122448.2115291930263.0113800084940.18411568372325161123126DRYL
2025-04-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025215-7034.0729.71431.892140.443171061650.2338583940.3538583941.041.393858394FF2.07234.07122448.1579664100762.9407259391710.12918456057554161122124DRYL
2025-04-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025215-7033.47626.90630.191140.668923724670.2338583940.3538583941.031.383858394FF1.476232.476122448.2438056407563.0539737057360.11587820827069161122124DRYL
2025-04-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025215-7033.78227.60830.695140.793829258570.1688977290.2888977291.011.298897729FF1.782232.782122448.2912780424263.1166456588120.12260662644786161122124DRYL
2025-04-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025215-7034.57427.48231.028140.284820105970.2248032710.4148032710.881.294803271FF2.574228.574122448.0977263391962.8613089293870.14127435332709161122124DRYL
2025-04-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025215-7034.93429.76832.351141.756055806570.2248032710.4148032710.851.264803271FF2.934227.934122448.656483578963.5997735241890.15036422393799161122124DRYL
2025-04-26 16:00:03FORECAST2025215-7034.12428.18431.154142.782166816580.3692915380.6692915380.861.529291538FF2.124228.124122449.0449537748464.1156114980220.13044458302953161123126DRYL
2025-04-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025215-7037.05830.48833.773140.15218783740.1602363070.5002363070.811.310236307FF5.058232.058122448.0472515544462.7948025598870.21171303338553161123126DRYL
2025-04-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025215-7035.0627.9531.505140.455366486280.1602363070.5002363070.781.280236307FF3.06231.06122448.1626048041562.9468429032110.15363552072146161123126DRYL
2025-04-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025215-7035.00627.4131.208140.477826517610.1208662070.4108662070.771.180866207FF3.006229.006122448.1711468512362.9581086175640.15222782538385161122124DRYL
2025-04-26 00:00:03FORECAST2025215-7034.41224.31429.363141.382375669680.2539371450.6839371450.821.503937145FF2.412215.412122448.5147622146863.4120826048340.1373076679689161123126DRYL
2025-04-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025215-7034.5226.07830.299143.211801828490.2539371450.6839371450.821.503937145FF2.52216.52122449.2073066555564.3317877806640.13994360726648161123126DRYL
2025-04-25 16:00:02FORECAST2025215-7039.16428.8534.007141.212067194990.1236221140.4736221140.841.313622114FF7.164222.164122448.4501266426963.326569417070.28495545914478162122125DRYL
2025-04-25 12:00:03FORECAST2025215-7039.27233.49436.383140.932106544850.1322835360.3122835361.041.352283536FF7.272222.272122448.3438150354663.1860383093010.28901290220637162122125DRYL
2025-04-25 08:00:03FORECAST2025215-7039.27233.49436.383140.924871861290.1322835360.3122835361.051.362283536FF7.272222.272122448.3410667513663.1824073820890.28901290220637162122125DRYL
2025-04-25 04:00:04FORECAST2025215-7041.70234.50238.102140.708945211430.1322835360.3122835361.061.372283536FF9.702225.702122448.2590181045663.0740536190040.38657171742171162122125DRYL
2025-04-25 00:00:03FORECAST2025215-7040.89232.88236.887140.8151828310.0330708840.0930708841.191.283070884FF8.892218.892122448.2993923112963.1273608913390.35286440669533162122125DRYL
2025-04-24 20:00:03FORECAST2025215-7040.24432.75636.5142.894815345030.0330708840.0930708841.21.293070884FF8.244218.244122449.0875391689864.1722809833060.32669199429201162122125DRYL
2025-04-24 16:00:03FORECAST2025215-7041.3632.70237.031142.581767274190.0330708840.0930708841.181.273070884FF9.36220.36122448.969165060564.0148170059430.37221828959284162122125DRYL
2025-04-24 12:00:03FORECAST2025215-7059.61237.52648.569140.505548775260.0019685050.3319685051.151.481968505FF27.612238.612122448.1816895675362.9720142437070.95434747321013165122128DRYL
2025-04-24 08:00:03FORECAST2025215-7059.61237.52648.569140.768671479940.0019685050.3319685051.141.471968505FF27.612232.612122448.2817176262763.1040218389970.95434747321013165122128DRYL
2025-04-24 04:00:04FORECAST2025215-7055.9437.02246.481140.614671715870.0019685050.3319685051.141.471968505FF23.94226.94122448.2231815808863.0267555334390.90016480664135165122128DRYL
2025-04-24 00:00:03FORECAST2025215-7040.44237.54438.993142.65533684597000.920.92FF8.442207.442122448.9969926758864.0518172330050.33460639872779162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-23 20:00:03FORECAST2025215-7042.49438.73240.613142.36037640125000.920.92FF10.494216.494122448.8853928127763.9034934818480.42038114254446162121122.5DRYL
2025-04-23 16:00:03FORECAST2025215-7044.65440.83842.746142.21515023306000.910.91FF12.654219.654122448.830414989663.8304848969120.51487709513195163121123DRYL
2025-04-23 12:00:03FORECAST2025215-7048.12842.36845.248141.1624577833800.021.111.13FF16.128228.128122448.4312935906463.3016635502380.66291692567314163121123DRYL
2025-04-23 08:00:03FORECAST2025215-7048.12842.36845.248140.9660354536800.021.111.13FF16.128228.128122448.3567031466463.2030669116640.66291692567314163121123DRYL
2025-04-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025215-7051.29649.40650.351141.108216165460.0464567180.0964567181.141.236456718FF19.296231.296122448.4106993138663.2744338896850.77931111935348164122127DRYL