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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 21, 2025

[ Tuesday, May 20, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, May 22, 2025 ]

DAY 233 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/22/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.99°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.50°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.573
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 18
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 205

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.84 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.31 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.15 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 114 in
SWE DAY: 140
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.34 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.11 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -52

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-05-22 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025233-525026.9900638.49503113.999115833330.0299999999999730.839999999999972.313.15FF18205140448.34234991499 51.1106314809470.5727936600128116 3123129DRYL
2025-05-22 00:00:01FORECAST2025233-5243.14224.42233.782113.482872691750.0035433090.8135433092.313.123543309FF11.142198.142140448.1461126820650.8569082528020.30250631055285162113126DRYL
2025-05-21 12:00:01FORECAST2025233-5243.48424.4433.962114.4433090780.0027559070.8127559072.313.122755907FF11.484198.484140448.5109933056351.3290822317570.31481023521715162113126DRYL
2025-05-21 08:00:01FORECAST2025233-5244.07824.49434.286114.408731363730.0027559070.8127559072.313.122755907FF12.078199.078140448.4978722822551.3120725871440.33666978516786162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-21 04:00:03FORECAST2025233-5244.13223.97234.052114.646987127460.0015748040.8115748042.313.121574804FF12.132199.132140448.5882585618151.4292923048660.33868608912651162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-21 00:00:02FORECAST2025233-5244.63623.91834.277115.087818186910.007874020.797874022.313.10787402FF12.636197.636140448.7553509797951.6462742439660.35772131977062162113126DRYL
2025-05-20 20:00:01FORECAST2025233-5244.40224.83634.619114.422958024620.0055118140.7355118142.313.045511814FF12.402199.402140448.5032709379751.3190709444410.348836047605162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-20 16:00:01FORECAST2025233-5243.73625.12434.43114.438597554120.0055118140.7355118142.313.045511814FF11.736198.736140448.5092055162551.3267644693930.32401062318285162113126DRYL
2025-05-20 12:00:02FORECAST2025233-5243.50225.95234.727114.946267831180.0129921330.7429921332.313.052992133FF11.502198.502140448.7017181844351.5765878747380.31546369876963162113126DRYL
2025-05-20 08:00:02FORECAST2025233-5243.23224.78234.007114.896995000590.0153543390.7553543392.313.065354339FF11.232197.232140448.6830444048851.5523335098390.30572328711119162113126DRYL
2025-05-20 04:00:03FORECAST2025233-5242.94426.04234.493114.972683770930.0153543390.8353543392.313.145354339FF10.944196.944140448.7117285291651.589591668490.29548291856593162113126DRYL
2025-05-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025233-5242.58425.7934.187118.459004240440.0110236280.7010236282.313.011023628FF10.584194.584140450.026996455253.3097498813980.28290889350762162113126DRYL
2025-05-19 20:00:01FORECAST2025233-5242.94425.64634.295117.009679743280.007874020.797874022.313.10787402FF10.944194.944140449.4816306929852.5937016578750.29548291856593162113126DRYL
2025-05-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025233-5242.27825.68233.98117.11494596560.011811030.811811032.313.12181103FF10.278194.278140449.5213089285252.6456638055490.27242692201165162113126DRYL
2025-05-19 12:00:01FORECAST2025233-5241.82825.30433.566117.690323654120.0248031630.8348031632.313.144803163FF9.828192.828140449.7379999696552.9298107759860.25737068094548162113126DRYL
2025-05-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025233-5241.8125.0733.44117.142241248490.0228346581.0428346582.313.352834658TF9.81193.81140449.5315956693352.6591386287140.25677754000943162114128DRYL
2025-05-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025233-5241.88225.50233.692117.92323701780.0224409570.9924409572.313.302440957TF9.882193.882140449.82562667853.0448939914310.25915436028076162114128DRYL
2025-05-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025233-5241.77425.80833.791118.127450125850.0181102460.9281102462.373.298110246TF9.774187.774140449.9024131307853.1458248686050.25559339330251162113126DRYL
2025-05-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025233-5241.55825.55633.557117.000385159070.0098425250.8598425252.43.259842525FF9.558189.558140449.4781267545652.5891139508620.24854876909618161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025233-5241.73825.77233.755116.475733648530.0114173290.7614173292.43.161417329FF9.738187.738140449.280205717252.3302415746720.2544121010685162113126DRYL
2025-05-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025233-5242.92626.09634.511117.814772343370.0070866180.8070866182.43.207086618FF10.926191.926140449.7848265277552.9912969408690.29484816030136162113126DRYL
2025-05-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025233-5241.7226.34834.034118.412801388180.0051181130.8251181132.383.205118113FF9.72190.72140450.0096417643653.2869023330110.25382252820036162113126DRYL
2025-05-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025233-5243.14226.634.871118.361142195430.0043307110.8243307112.43.224330711FF11.142192.142140449.9902351540153.261358209620.30250631055285162113126DRYL
2025-05-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025233-5242.78226.22234.502119.550794551730.0421260070.8121260072.533.342126007TF10.782187.782140450.4365020170553.8500417112420.28979285169129162113126DRYL
2025-05-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025233-5242.83626.0634.448119.291295743060.0492126250.8092126252.623.429212625TF10.836188.836140450.3392728081753.7215553772760.29168382876488162113126DRYL
2025-05-17 16:00:01FORECAST2025233-5243.32226.04234.682119.039578806690.0779527980.7579527982.613.367952798TF11.322191.322140450.2448980648153.5969630254980.30895531361027162113126DRYL
2025-05-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025233-5243.21425.57434.394118.992253443770.0051181130.7451181132.593.335118113FF11.214190.214140450.2271479065253.573542890960.30507868135196162113126DRYL
2025-05-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025233-5242.96226.00634.484119.433169962410.0051181130.7551181132.643.395118113TF10.962191.962140450.3924382881953.7917966318560.29611830394793162113126DRYL
2025-05-17 04:00:03FORECAST2025233-5243.46626.52834.997119.731103555870.0051181130.7051181132.773.475118113TF11.466193.466140450.504022605253.9393437828760.31415735052771162113126DRYL
2025-05-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025233-5239.8325.98832.909118.56712211960.0602362530.5502362532.412.960236253FF7.83190.83140450.0675996771753.3632200529980.19609085638886161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-16 20:00:03FORECAST2025233-5241.39625.57433.485118.853170163850.0594488510.5294488512.483.009448851FF9.396192.396140450.1749700760553.5047223219550.24333387516602161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-16 16:00:03FORECAST2025233-5241.3626.07833.719118.853916657680.0374015950.4774015952.553.027401595FF9.36194.36140450.1752501763753.5050916658110.24218308026488161112123DRYL
2025-05-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025233-5239.61424.36831.991116.855792118210.035433090.465433092.452.91543309FF7.614192.614140449.4236063876752.5177515210550.19004066339268161112123DRYL
2025-05-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025233-5237.95824.9831.469116.841817481680.0338582860.3738582862.492.863858286FF5.958186.958140449.418336038952.5108551923760.14753729616018161112123DRYL
2025-05-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025233-5238.89425.30432.099117.010156673240.0271653690.3571653692.472.827165369FF6.894189.894140449.4818104871952.5939370668750.17071334177629161112123DRYL
2025-05-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025233-5242.45824.58433.521116.688488702070.011811030.631811032.132.76181103FF10.458194.458140449.3604978356252.435197374850.27856942670867162113126DRYL
2025-05-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025233-5242.5324.5333.53116.781060175950.011811030.651811032.212.86181103FF10.53194.53140449.3954200522452.4808735919150.28104515555954162113126DRYL
2025-05-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025233-5241.84626.70834.277116.300616437280.0129921330.5729921332.262.832992133FF9.846192.846140449.2140852680452.2438750289810.25796453207369162113126DRYL
2025-05-15 12:00:03FORECAST2025233-5244.79826.83435.816115.911491222080.0307086780.2107086782.362.570708678FF12.798200.798140449.0670547251752.05203197190.36391846897598162122125DRYL
2025-05-15 08:00:05FORECAST2025233-5244.52826.65435.591116.754156379360.0665354690.2465354692.232.476535469FF12.528200.528140449.3852715494852.467598269070.35361049837999162122125DRYL
2025-05-15 04:00:06FORECAST2025233-5244.99626.6935.843116.409703514690.0098425250.1798425252.332.509842525FF12.996205.996140449.2552776291752.2976736712220.37154120497993162122125DRYL
2025-05-15 00:00:03FORECAST2025233-5246.72426.4236.572117.371630369970.007874020.467874021.892.35787402FF14.724210.724140449.6180170989652.772399710620.43990041936736162122125DRYL
2025-05-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025233-5248.1127.30237.706116.639163206180.0090551230.4990551231.822.319055123FF16.11215.11140449.3418866368852.4108616508120.49616525397849162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025233-5247.42626.02436.725117.678206970660.0051181130.5051181131.92.405118113FF15.426208.426140449.7334400100652.9238248351330.4683184543505162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-14 12:00:03FORECAST2025233-5243.91627.84235.879118.575191984750.0401575020.8501575021.752.600157502FF11.916207.916140450.0706298344553.3672113393190.33064916170789162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-14 08:00:03FORECAST2025233-5243.39428.34635.87116.33623044140.0421260070.9021260071.762.662126007FF11.394206.394140449.227534723752.2614380002380.31155163409773162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025233-5242.63828.45435.546116.948913244840.0409449040.9109449041.682.590944904FF10.638197.638140449.458721008952.5637089704070.28477853926091162113126DRYL
2025-05-14 00:00:03FORECAST2025233-5241.95431.89236.923116.717167895010.3334647470.6434647471.612.253464747FF9.954203.954140449.3713178238552.449347549650.26154248777138162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025233-5241.95433.837.877116.921656228240.3334647470.6434647471.672.313464747FF9.954205.954140449.4484436444752.5502564201180.26154248777138162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025233-5245.39232.52238.957115.377703602980.2818899160.3818899161.692.071889916FF13.392214.392140448.865127101251.7890275923980.38693593167563162122125DRYL
2025-05-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025233-5241.07230.30835.69115.8370025567600.381.551.93FF9.072204.072140449.0388926877952.0153193603580.23308364713079161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025233-5240.71229.62435.168116.992366877500.381.591.97FF8.712200.712140449.4751038993152.5851562576910.2219808283623161122124DRYL
2025-05-13 04:00:05FORECAST2025233-5241.66630.61436.14116.5719669900700.351.531.88FF9.666203.666140449.3165288134852.3777115649370.25205811598604162122125DRYL
2025-05-13 00:00:03FORECAST2025233-5239.52432.48636.005114.579036633210.0066929170.0666929171.381.446692917FF7.524216.524140448.5624859889451.3958575144090.18755390827975161121122DRYL
2025-05-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025233-5240.40632.19836.302114.49295824120.007874020.067874021.431.49787402FF8.406218.406140448.5298313972851.35350725610.21278518063202161121122DRYL
2025-05-12 16:00:03FORECAST2025233-5242.85433.22438.039114.3455806171200.071.451.52FF10.854221.854140448.4739058261551.2810091533190.29231542874622162121122.5DRYL
2025-05-12 12:00:03FORECAST2025233-5242.83633.60238.219113.827663660230.2208662610.6908662611.372.060866261FF10.836224.836140448.2772050914651.0263469276980.29168382876488162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-12 08:00:04FORECAST2025233-5242.83633.60238.219113.766227160780.2216536630.7416536631.332.071653663FF10.836225.836140448.253854825750.9961498737960.29168382876488162123127.5DRYL
2025-05-12 04:00:05FORECAST2025233-5259.57635.18647.381111.489004572470.110236280.170236281.431.60023628FF27.576244.576140447.3857716278449.8785943386750.87742374180792165122128DRYL
2025-05-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025233-5239.36234.26836.815113.0276143744100.0911.09FF7.362228.362140447.9728436960450.6333018274820.18312859022935161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 20:00:03FORECAST2025233-5239.09234.26836.68113.527082076600.091.051.14FF7.092224.092140448.1629278771250.8786294967950.17589887021545161122124DRYL
2025-05-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025233-5235.97826.7831.379114.19695341243001.231.23FF3.978218.978140448.4174848689751.2079106289010.10572310173947161121122DRYL
2025-05-11 12:00:04FORECAST2025233-5225.53823.61224.575116.991957915310.0161417410.4961417411.231.726141741FF-6.462196.538140449.474949720852.5849544017230.01014980265046161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025233-5225.53823.61224.575117.034793594170.0161417410.4961417411.321.816141741FF-6.462195.538140449.4910978772852.6060978624870.01014980265046161113124.5DRYL
2025-05-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025233-5232.8130.70431.757118.047040063710.0204724520.3104724521.451.760472452FF0.81204.81140449.8721827860453.1060795848920.057740349660744161122124DRYL