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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 9, 2025

[ Tuesday, April 8, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, April 10, 2025 ]

DAY 191 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/10/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.05°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.47°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.729
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 153

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.08 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.55 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 169 in
SWE DAY: 98
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.29 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 75.20 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -94

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-10 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025191-9447.0499825.8999836.47498168.885817083330.00999999999999092.087.479.55TT15.04998153.0499898445.29243119243 75.2035760829570.7286699760678116 41151215WETL
2025-04-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025191-9337.86821.34429.606166.808616655930.0011811032.0711811037.479.541181103TT5.868143.86899445.0670024902474.2410110045960.381145125388871621151210WETL
2025-04-09 12:00:01FORECAST2025191-9337.72421.32629.525166.790130752440.0015748042.0715748047.479.541574804TT5.724143.72499445.0598261714174.2315865997860.375710625828811621151210WETL
2025-04-09 08:00:01FORECAST2025191-9338.08421.41629.75166.788456858280.0023622062.0723622067.479.542362206TT6.084144.08499445.0591763408174.23073323250.389340684372631621151210WETL
2025-04-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025191-9338.6620.46229.561166.249353798270.0007874022.0707874027.479.540787402TT6.66144.6699444.8497447163573.9559825964180.411427984065221621151210WETL
2025-04-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025191-9438.46220.98429.723166.026461574780.0122047312.1722047317.479.642204731TT6.462142.46298444.1800439767473.7456410035890.403799930338231621151210WETL
2025-04-08 20:00:01FORECAST2025191-9438.22821.77630.002156.797148180720.0122047312.4122047317.479.882204731TT6.228143.22898440.5339003637569.0744592539650.394832109474011621151210WETL
2025-04-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025191-9437.99421.8329.912156.891189793890.0311023792.4311023797.479.901102379TT5.994142.99498440.5714852378569.1217845082290.385919652572521621151210WETL
2025-04-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025191-9437.61622.85630.236161.839159318630.0232283592.4232283597.479.893228359TT5.616142.61698442.5363920637771.6197176595020.37165079909111621151210WETL
2025-04-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025191-9437.92222.13630.029161.256482516460.0251968642.2351968647.479.705196864TT5.922142.92298442.3062838293671.324755525250.383189184448691621151210WETL
2025-04-08 04:00:07FORECAST2025191-9437.56222.17229.867161.534913324610.0251968642.3251968647.479.795196864TT5.562141.56298442.4162830219971.4656759313530.369626192207321621151210WETL
2025-04-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025191-9436.71622.129.408169.17501051460.0232283592.7032283597.4710.173228359TT4.716138.71698445.4044881220275.3513089612910.33841038584151621151210WETL
2025-04-07 20:00:01FORECAST2025191-9435.27621.77628.526161.535406385890.0145669372.7445669377.4710.214566937TT3.276135.27698442.4164777458971.4659255244970.287833819012611621151210WETL
2025-04-07 16:00:01FORECAST2025191-9436.01423.66629.84161.278945675690.0429134092.7229134097.4710.192913409TT4.014137.01498442.3151611972271.3361228542620.313314433035731621151210WETL
2025-04-07 12:00:01FORECAST2025191-9436.1423.25229.696164.870666485310.0437008112.6137008117.4710.083700811TT4.14136.1498443.7281022376173.1577479541770.317759980764611621151210WETL
2025-04-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025191-9436.48223.0929.786165.283667418040.0515748312.7415748317.4710.211574831TT4.482136.48298443.8897472076373.3677253477450.32995800031541621151210WETL
2025-04-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025191-9436.75222.3729.561164.853072613270.0153543392.4553543397.479.925354339TT4.752137.75298443.7212123828373.1488052449940.339718139742671621151210WETL
2025-04-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025191-9436.91422.5529.732165.854197227520.0555118412.7355118417.6910.425511841TT4.914133.91498444.1127688712273.6579667596280.34562672802641621151210WETL
2025-04-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025191-9436.48222.44229.462167.129895096050.0570866452.6770866457.6110.287086645TT4.482137.48298444.6102749573874.3076686122530.32995800031541621151210WETL
2025-04-06 16:00:01FORECAST2025191-9435.6922.53229.111167.27767138490.0649606652.6149606657.6110.224960665TT3.69135.6998444.667801730574.3829944133210.302007979539181621151210WETL
2025-04-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025191-9436.0522.96429.507165.666901379880.0578740472.4378740477.6110.047874047TT4.05137.0598444.0395900429573.5626629724080.314581863683181621151210WETL
2025-04-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025191-9437.54422.8230.182165.039627260220.0614173562.3614173567.6510.011417356TT5.544139.54498443.7942525104773.2436380145560.368952122200211621151210WETL
2025-04-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025191-9437.16622.40629.786164.470497301390.0602362532.2902362537.439.720236253TT5.166138.16698443.5713176708872.9543952059630.354892573708031621151210WETL
2025-04-06 00:00:02FORECAST2025191-9436.42822.92829.678165.613722127270.1358268452.3758268457.59.875826845TT4.428129.42898444.0188058979973.535607139270.328019512175371621151210WETL
2025-04-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025191-9434.62823.30628.967167.507606433740.1460630712.3760630717.529.896063071TT2.628128.62898444.7572685726774.5002255026170.266300297708691621151210WETL
2025-04-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025191-9435.04222.128.571169.036051360230.1500000812.3700000817.539.900000081TT3.042125.04298445.3506543777775.2803160867130.27996369712971621151210WETL
2025-04-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025191-9434.84422.83828.841166.213992306480.1645670181.8945670187.369.254567018TT2.844125.84498444.2532476690873.8411058901960.273386820750421621151210WETL
2025-04-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025191-9434.48423.52229.003166.4119579190.1645670182.0345670187.339.364567018TT2.484128.48498444.3304868527973.9419062802740.261628081419281621151210WETL
2025-04-05 04:00:03FORECAST2025191-9434.21423.41428.814166.069006961780.1625985131.9925985137.339.322598513TT2.214125.21498444.1966548697473.7672973699610.252982327648451621151210WETL
2025-04-05 00:00:18FORECAST2025191-9434.80822.9128.859167.869155151350.0889764261.8989764267.199.088976426TT2.808117.80898444.897840154774.6846245554280.272199286542591621151210WETL
2025-04-04 20:00:02FORECAST2025191-9434.5223.07228.796168.033389930050.0877953231.8177953237.199.007795323TT2.52118.5298444.9616526645774.7684148861070.262792184633461621151210WETL
2025-04-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025191-9434.50221.50628.004167.79652597410.0877953231.8077953237.279.077795323TT2.502117.50298444.8696120017474.647575405340.262209802492011621151210WETL
2025-04-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025191-9433.51223.86428.688167.801185477510.1346457421.6846457427.359.034645742TT1.512118.51298444.8714231268874.6499521857590.2312252635584161115127.5WETL
2025-04-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025191-9434.89825.17830.038166.370380998360.1275591241.6575591247.379.027559124TT2.898126.89898444.3142682298673.9207340884090.275172912723461621151210WETL
2025-04-04 04:00:03FORECAST2025191-9435.76225.3430.551167.292152901520.1405512571.6605512577.449.100551257TT3.762127.76298444.6734379747974.3903767769240.304504679188311621151210WETL
2025-04-04 00:00:02FORECAST2025191-9433.56626.11429.84170.528743614310.4755908082.2755908086.959.225590808TT1.566125.56698445.9279407488976.0435314784250.23286100967164161115127.5WETL
2025-04-03 20:00:02FORECAST2025191-9434.32226.31230.317170.509883063110.4755908082.3155908086.969.275590808TT2.322125.32298445.9206602314276.0338796314840.256422519336631621151210WETL
2025-04-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025191-9434.64626.22230.434169.616834368080.2881891322.1281891326.919.038189132TT2.646124.64698445.5755275639875.5771104572890.266887276108291621151210WETL
2025-04-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025191-9437.50826.02431.766171.799220935440.2208662612.4708662616.979.440866261TT5.508125.50898446.4175660295776.6941900557760.367605192078211621151210WETL
2025-04-03 08:00:02FORECAST2025191-9435.36626.38430.875172.194967092740.2208662612.4708662616.989.450866261TT3.366120.36698446.5697589464576.8970649463970.290888338449181621151210WETL
2025-04-03 04:00:03FORECAST2025191-9435.72625.35830.542171.918927334480.2062993242.4462993246.979.416299324TT3.726121.72698446.4636179064676.755546284350.303255181751891621151210WETL
2025-04-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025191-9435.40225.77230.587176.819291088780.7377956742.8177956746.899.707795674TT3.402116.40298448.3368528447979.2746044889890.292114369609191621151210WETL
2025-04-02 20:00:03FORECAST2025191-9438.0326.94232.486174.559145772890.7539374152.7939374156.929.713937415TT6.03119.0398447.4757760941978.1109892290630.38728701772741621151210WETL
2025-04-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025191-9437.0427.64432.342175.769005353110.7673232492.8073232496.799.597323249TT5.04119.0498447.9373267069578.7334983758120.350248514800741621151210WETL
2025-04-02 12:00:02FORECAST2025191-9439.59630.77635.186169.765398276170.102362261.362362266.858.21236226TT7.596119.59698445.632996714375.6530631722070.4478952022717162114128WETL
2025-04-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025191-9439.66829.94834.808168.71121100040.102362261.352362266.848.19236226TT7.668124.66898445.2247348089675.1144041769530.45072281667486162114128WETL
2025-04-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025191-9440.9127.06833.989168.800436601540.0807087051.2407087056.828.060708705TT8.91120.9198445.2593321458475.159969667130.499770780023851631141210WETL
2025-04-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025191-9440.76626.97833.872167.839559245070.1043307651.1243307656.527.644330765TT8.766121.76698444.8863379989274.6695268838920.49406967216779162114128WETL
2025-04-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025191-9441.23428.92235.078166.246048565110.1043307651.1243307656.637.754330765TT9.234125.23498444.2657575234573.8574267010610.512596670253651631141210WETL
2025-04-01 16:00:03FORECAST2025191-9439.77628.68834.232166.993020675720.1043307651.2943307656.537.824330765TT7.776124.77698444.5569728290574.2379117551760.45496888697357162114128WETL
2025-04-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025191-9440.78428.36434.574166.374883704880.2472442281.2572442286.427.677244228TT8.784123.78498444.3160247605773.9230269477560.49478226829282162114128WETL
2025-04-01 08:00:03FORECAST2025191-9440.76628.36434.565166.32728269870.2484253311.2684253316.387.648425331TT8.766122.76698444.2974543284973.8987882884080.49406967216779162114128WETL
2025-04-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025191-9442.74628.56235.654165.55804427420.0307086781.0007086786.437.430708678TT10.746126.74698443.9970422118273.5072819721170.572066220601921631141210WETL
2025-04-01 00:00:02FORECAST2025191-9439.95629.3934.673164.756262332210.2173229520.6573229526.377.027322952TT7.956121.95698443.6832954480973.0996014172640.46205687889697162113126WETL
2025-03-31 20:00:03FORECAST2025191-9439.95629.3934.673160.543824069030.2173229520.6573229526.437.087322952TT7.956128.95698442.0243804147270.9642843635250.46205687889697162113126WETL
2025-03-31 16:00:03FORECAST2025191-9442.72829.55236.14159.5560839893100.466.386.84TT10.728132.72898441.6328193580470.4652032179250.57136510044377163112125WETL
2025-03-31 12:00:03FORECAST2025191-9448.52432.25240.388159.4854718813600.156.346.49TF16.524139.52498441.6047895827170.4295482516670.77490864985141164112126WETL
2025-03-31 08:00:03FORECAST2025191-9448.54233.11640.829158.2512295968700.166.256.41TF16.542147.54298441.1140390990869.806839079870.77544431807257164112126WETL
2025-03-31 04:00:04FORECAST2025191-9448.90234.62841.765157.1823809980800.116.226.33TF16.902155.90298440.6878064218469.2683586902050.78600498399489164112126WETL
2025-03-31 00:00:03FORECAST2025191-9437.45434.26835.861161.4714228429400.136.326.45TF5.454148.45498442.3912067904271.4335376136540.36558785015222162112124WETL
2025-03-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025191-9437.47234.32235.897160.6140952987400.146.236.37TF5.472147.47298442.0522000034470.999814178370.36625988783053162112124WETL
2025-03-30 16:00:03FORECAST2025191-9433.92630.88432.405161.1526090764700.246.236.47TF1.926141.92698442.2652267948671.2721952017870.2439283879778161112123WETL
2025-03-30 12:00:03FORECAST2025191-9440.08235.70837.895159.659517549750.0409449040.3509449046.176.520944904TF8.082158.08298441.6738686735770.5174367867550.46702578870073162112124WETL
2025-03-30 08:00:03FORECAST2025191-9440.08235.70837.895159.26205018250.0409449040.3509449046.266.610944904TT8.082163.08298441.5160682675770.3167542208110.46702578870073162112124WETL
2025-03-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025191-9444.94243.66444.303158.225734310050.0098425250.2698425256.196.459842525TF12.942182.94298441.103885620669.7939862093350.65526642829055163112125WETL