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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 8, 2025

[ Monday, April 7, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, April 9, 2025 ]

DAY 190 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/09/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.21°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.62°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.42°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.167
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 138

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.10 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.95 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.68 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.63 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 167 in
SWE DAY: 97
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 73.90 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -95

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-09 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025190-9531.2099827.6200629.41502166.521976666671.12.956.689.63TT-0.79002138.2099897443.78888452736 73.9006022741910.1671430006860816 1115127.5WETL
2025-04-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025190-9429.1222.78425.952166.233177886141.1937014323.0437014326.689.723701432TT-2.88136.1298444.2607349037473.850873773080.12063796141276161115127.5WETL
2025-04-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025190-9429.91222.87426.393161.950497990241.4255913213.2755913216.689.955591321TT-2.088136.91298442.580322715171.6761036643920.13706178643199161115127.5WETL
2025-04-08 08:00:01FORECAST2025190-9429.5722.83826.204161.343169156951.2393707483.0893707486.689.769370748TT-2.43136.5798442.3405393151771.3686244597060.12979174931244161115127.5WETL
2025-04-08 04:00:07FORECAST2025190-9429.04823.59426.321161.627396764531.330709383.180709386.689.86070938TT-2.952136.04898442.4528030916571.5124947548730.11921648374852161115127.5WETL
2025-04-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025190-9529.35423.59426.474169.226474866711.4342527433.5642527436.6810.244252743TT-2.646134.35497444.8439114794575.2793670055880.12533976290388161115127.5WETL
2025-04-07 20:00:01FORECAST2025190-9529.17422.9126.042161.560984260951.4492133813.6092133816.6810.289213381TT-2.826132.17497441.8346558988371.3832418876130.12171184738603161115127.5WETL
2025-04-07 16:00:01FORECAST2025190-9529.55223.7226.636161.237329080881.397638553.557638556.6810.23763855TT-2.448132.55297441.7063043012571.2195447437190.12941663332461161115127.5WETL
2025-04-07 12:00:01FORECAST2025190-9529.3923.91826.654164.827430357731.2893707753.4493707756.6810.129370775TT-2.61132.3997443.1241379783673.0390129924590.12607428509912161115127.5WETL
2025-04-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025190-9529.46224.99827.23165.229092019761.2858274663.5658274666.6810.245827466TT-2.538132.46297443.2819629826673.2430762523610.12755229190994161115127.5WETL
2025-04-07 04:00:02FORECAST2025190-9529.19224.81827.005164.954373015151.2208668013.3208668016.6810.000866801TT-2.808133.19297443.1740349881173.1034950780590.1220712930342161115127.5WETL
2025-04-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025190-9529.69624.81827.257165.839087478521.2578746953.7778746956.6810.457874695TT-2.304128.69697443.5213408931673.5531744509690.13243857798339161115127.5WETL
2025-04-06 20:00:01FORECAST2025190-9529.94825.23227.59167.068125649821.2937014863.6437014866.6810.323701486TT-2.052132.94897444.002522089874.1786691493330.1378428826065161115127.5WETL
2025-04-06 16:00:01FORECAST2025190-9529.22824.72826.978167.09411344771.3574810483.5674810486.6810.247481048TT-2.772132.22897444.0126803741674.1919051866560.12279241221802161115127.5WETL
2025-04-06 12:00:01FORECAST2025190-9529.44424.87227.158165.499088611341.2185045953.3985045956.6810.078504595TT-2.556133.44497443.3879623429873.3803036690010.12718166903029161115127.5WETL
2025-04-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025190-9529.80424.9827.392164.923825470441.1724415783.3624415786.6810.042441578TT-2.196133.80497443.1620292165873.0879771616410.13473661534278161115127.5WETL
2025-04-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025190-9529.55224.69227.122164.329702989511.1578746413.0678746416.689.747874641TT-2.448132.55297442.9283423358572.7862829416850.12941663332461161115127.5WETL
2025-04-06 00:00:02FORECAST2025190-9529.73224.8927.311165.040343682931.1165360363.1465360366.689.826536036TT-2.268124.73297443.2078181115673.1471706240940.13320157911284161115127.5WETL
2025-04-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025190-9531.15425.37628.265166.823840338651.0744100293.1644100296.689.844410029TT-0.846126.15497443.9070014293874.0542707316620.16576401618968161115127.5WETL
2025-04-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025190-9529.2124.72826.969168.31424669491.1086620163.1586620166.689.838662016TT-2.79122.2197444.4888602282874.8138076735990.12243148117968161115127.5WETL
2025-04-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025190-9529.37224.45826.915165.428556932860.86614222.49614226.689.1761422TT-2.628123.37297443.3602789601773.3444511497310.12570665086209161115127.5WETL
2025-04-05 08:00:01FORECAST2025190-9528.61624.92626.771165.649632424450.9720477692.6120477696.689.292047769TT-3.384125.61697443.4470335599573.456838108920.11093497887844161115127.5WETL
2025-04-05 04:00:03FORECAST2025190-9528.52624.47626.501165.301335653061.0086619622.5686619626.689.248661962TT-3.474122.52697443.3103326083573.2797900889630.10926266283152161115127.5WETL
2025-04-05 00:00:15FORECAST2025190-9528.4924.63826.564167.44512039150.968504462.408504466.689.08850446TT-3.51115.4997444.1498186468374.3707198551830.10859881701428161115127.5WETL
2025-04-04 20:00:02FORECAST2025190-9528.47224.31426.393167.597496180530.9311028652.3311028656.689.011102865TT-3.528116.47297444.2093137579674.4483687659040.1082679806829161115127.5WETL
2025-04-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025190-9528.8524.56626.708167.353756206350.9358272772.3958272776.689.075827277TT-3.15114.8597444.1141344659874.3241685872140.11536831920351161115127.5WETL
2025-04-04 12:00:02FORECAST2025190-9529.28224.40426.843167.112526956690.8905516622.3105516626.688.990551662TT-2.718117.28297444.0198775639374.2012837587090.12387966658802161115127.5WETL
2025-04-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025190-9530.63225.9728.301165.815347771360.8842524462.3142524466.688.994252446TT-1.368123.63297443.5120317559373.5411017863930.15325971774161115127.5WETL
2025-04-04 04:00:03FORECAST2025190-9530.75825.48428.121166.665417893130.8649610972.3749610976.689.054961097TT-1.242123.75897443.8450232539673.9736162804050.15621937085793161115127.5WETL
2025-04-04 00:00:02FORECAST2025190-9531.44224.83628.139168.054126952211.0783470392.3283470396.518.838347039TT-0.558124.44297444.3874673604774.6811478557670.17293685457746161115127.5WETL
2025-04-03 20:00:02FORECAST2025190-9531.62225.19628.409168.066563653671.0783470392.3783470396.518.888347039TT-0.378122.62297444.3923166253174.6874895693080.17751855877995161115127.5WETL
2025-04-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025190-9531.7324.92628.328168.14559970921.0716541222.3316541226.518.841654122TT-0.27121.7397444.4231304423874.7277937928740.18030392811773161115127.5WETL
2025-04-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025190-9531.13625.95228.544170.856367644081.393701542.803701546.519.31370154TT-0.864120.13697445.4762428069176.1124527177230.16532217608857161115127.5WETL
2025-04-03 08:00:02FORECAST2025190-9530.97425.55628.265171.163311503821.393701542.813701546.519.32370154TT-1.026116.97497445.5950317570776.269521225190.16137986162835161115127.5WETL
2025-04-03 04:00:03FORECAST2025190-9530.68625.71828.202170.930696394671.4122054872.7922054876.519.302205487TT-1.314117.68697445.5050169378976.1504827925120.15452357283217161115127.5WETL
2025-04-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025190-9531.94626.79829.372173.162329575691.2484258712.5984258716.469.058425871TT-0.053999999999998112.94697446.3664011587377.2938458689610.18595621580073161115127.5WETL
2025-04-02 20:00:03FORECAST2025190-9532.1827.80629.993172.57916249581.1988195452.5488195456.59.048819545TT0.18113.1897446.1417765457276.9947741506470.1922017546777161115127.5WETL
2025-04-02 16:00:02FORECAST2025190-9532.14428.02230.083172.527741264581.1901581232.4101581236.518.920158123TT0.144114.14497446.1219541207276.9684130729860.19123265566826161115127.5WETL
2025-04-02 12:00:02FORECAST2025190-9531.94626.07829.012169.728485233190.4905514461.6905514466.518.200551446TT-0.053999999999998111.94697445.0389498931275.5357868351270.18595621580073161115127.5WETL
2025-04-02 08:00:02FORECAST2025190-9532.82826.22229.525168.660658457950.4795278181.6695278186.518.179527818TT0.828116.82897444.6237851557474.9905403704330.21015387479549161115127.5WETL
2025-04-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025190-9532.01824.42228.22168.793507320480.562992431.572992436.58.07299243TT0.018000000000001112.01897444.6754973602975.058336818920.18786441087896161115127.5WETL
2025-04-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025190-9532.61224.31428.463167.940704262110.4531498511.2531498516.387.633149851TT0.612112.61297444.3432350060374.6233158210190.20406337648519161114126WETL
2025-04-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025190-9534.1624.60229.381166.392150677720.4531498511.2531498516.497.743149851TT2.16116.1697443.7380567723473.8345296039020.24999443759979162114128WETL
2025-04-01 16:00:03FORECAST2025190-9534.12425.5229.822167.022836476520.6165357661.3465357666.467.806535766TT2.124117.12497443.9848175520574.1556035800560.2488675225918161114126WETL
2025-04-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025190-9531.33426.04228.688166.504552242110.5972444171.0672444176.457.517244417TT-0.666115.33497443.7820637207673.8917338129060.1702242444482161114126WETL
2025-04-01 08:00:03FORECAST2025190-9531.85626.34829.102166.452136455740.6082680451.0782680456.417.488268045TT-0.144113.85697443.7615436942473.8650570248040.18358790160863161114126WETL
2025-04-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025190-9533.31424.7129.012165.941057136310.4905514461.0205514466.477.490551446TT1.314116.31497443.5613202407173.6050343855190.22424080859576161114126WETL
2025-04-01 00:00:02FORECAST2025190-9535.58228.1331.856164.240354077360.1350394430.4550394436.446.895039443TT3.582113.58297442.8931681101472.7409307488510.2965777041884162112124WETL
2025-03-31 20:00:03FORECAST2025190-9535.58227.87831.73160.027915814180.1350394430.4550394436.56.955039443TT3.582120.58297441.2257536465570.6084377595990.2965777041884162112124WETL
2025-03-31 16:00:03FORECAST2025190-9536.96826.11431.541160.167246389310.1027559610.4627559616.476.932755961TT4.968121.96897441.2811907990270.6787932136730.345465668505162112124WETL
2025-03-31 12:00:03FORECAST2025190-9539.25425.95232.603160.510898281360.0531496350.1531496356.436.583149635TF7.254123.25497441.4178399207870.8523740031020.43165173063183162112124WETL
2025-03-31 08:00:02FORECAST2025190-9540.44227.12233.782159.355671196870.0578740470.1578740476.346.497874047TF8.442131.44297440.9580036361570.2691586390680.47805984543092162112124WETL
2025-03-31 04:00:04FORECAST2025190-9543.12430.72236.923158.420646598080.0539370370.1139370376.316.423937037TF11.124139.12497440.5848293210169.7977335423390.58294941469313163112125WETL
2025-03-31 00:00:03FORECAST2025190-9542.45828.50835.483161.625320442940.0047244120.1347244126.416.544724412TF10.458143.45897441.8601570620471.415789476120.55715945065114163112125WETL
2025-03-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025190-9542.54828.63435.591160.770256098740.0051181130.1351181136.326.455118113TF10.548141.54897441.5208915470570.9834268069640.56066128893788163112125WETL
2025-03-30 16:00:03FORECAST2025190-9538.69628.50833.602161.193149876470.1086614760.2386614766.326.558661476TF6.696139.69697441.6887760142571.1972050708190.41013637420148162112124WETL
2025-03-30 12:00:03FORECAST2025190-9547.0336.35641.693159.658472078230.2964568530.3064568536.266.566456853TT15.03150.0397441.0786635536270.4219454892780.72395223365965164112126WETL
2025-03-30 08:00:02FORECAST2025190-9547.04838.87642.962159.261004710980.2964568530.3064568536.356.656456853TT15.048155.04897440.9202619446870.2214039147380.72454534711771164112126WETL
2025-03-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025190-9558.51439.18248.848158.427454310050.2484253310.2584253316.286.538425331TF26.514169.51497440.5875495266769.8011638722130.95807533654147165112127WETL
2025-03-30 00:00:03FORECAST2025190-9539.75836.69838.228159.90668433791006.396.39TF7.758143.75897441.1775018384470.5472315234670.45126268559032162111122WETL
2025-03-29 20:00:03FORECAST2025190-9539.75836.69838.228160.3390553749006.56.5TF7.758141.75897441.349523525570.7655656922420.45126268559032162111122WETL
2025-03-29 16:00:03FORECAST2025190-9543.86240.15442.008159.49746529689006.516.51TF11.862150.86297441.0145172194570.3406976556320.61111181175005163111122.5WETL
2025-03-29 12:00:03FORECAST2025190-9543.6135.6939.65165.10897564480.098425250.098425257.257.34842525TT11.61140.6197443.2347825041573.1820409094040.60155284054153163112125WETL
2025-03-29 08:00:03FORECAST2025190-9543.6135.6939.65165.745362014950.098425250.098425257.287.37842525TT11.61130.6197443.4845847212773.5055130426750.60155284054153163112125WETL
2025-03-29 04:00:04FORECAST2025190-9527.35625.73626.546169.440117854260.0578740470.2978740477.337.627874047TT-4.644104.35697444.9269453225675.3884740519920.089146008637869161112123WETL