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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 3, 2025

[ Wednesday, April 2, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, April 4, 2025 ]

DAY 185 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/04/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.66°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.49°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.57°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.285
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 75

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.17 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.50 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.28 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 163 in
SWE DAY: 92
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 439.51 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 71.74 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -100

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-04 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025185-10033.6599623.4899628.57496163.224739166670.169999999999960.499999999999968.288.78TT1.6599674.6599692439.51182013528 71.7392022022480.2853997421834816 2113126WETL
2025-04-04 00:00:01FORECAST2025185-9932.66618.4125.538162.997510667340.0007874020.3307874028.288.610787402TT0.66673.66693440.0214581534571.7224023192250.24720786040176161112123WETL
2025-04-03 12:00:02FORECAST2025185-9933.49418.1425.817162.975469067340.0007874020.3307874028.288.610787402TT1.49474.49493440.0126189710371.7112629723510.27883241817022162112124WETL
2025-04-03 08:00:01FORECAST2025185-9933.40418.10425.754162.980290667340.0007874020.3307874028.288.610787402TT1.40474.40493440.0145525844771.7136996780750.27530194768572162112124WETL
2025-04-03 04:00:03FORECAST2025185-9934.44818.48226.465163.168962791620.0007874020.3307874028.288.610787402TT2.44875.44893440.0901974576871.8090610539280.31754557941007162112124WETL
2025-04-03 00:00:02FORECAST2025185-10034.30419.2226.762164.165813672880.0007874020.2807874028.288.560787402TT2.30470.30492439.8899679049172.2148945076470.31155787275425162112124WETL
2025-04-02 20:00:02FORECAST2025185-10033.78220.67827.23163.976768875270.0019685050.3219685058.288.601968505TT1.78269.78292439.8140774107272.1192913196670.29027554916862162112124WETL
2025-04-02 16:00:01FORECAST2025185-10034.2520.7527.5163.98394536480.0059055150.3259055158.288.605905515TT2.2570.2592439.8169590194672.1229201783620.30932514529565162112124WETL
2025-04-02 12:00:01FORECAST2025185-10033.94421.21827.581164.370950625720.0102362260.3302362268.288.610236226TT1.94469.94492439.9722772486172.3186614603160.29680740639741162112124WETL
2025-04-02 08:00:02FORECAST2025185-10034.19620.9327.563164.355953068870.007874020.327874028.288.60787402TT2.19671.19692439.9662610678272.3110741559480.30709942987064162112124WETL
2025-04-02 04:00:03FORECAST2025185-10033.87219.74226.807164.234437247880.0086614220.3186614228.288.598661422TT1.87270.87292439.9175072664872.2496042414020.2938960610161162112124WETL
2025-04-02 00:00:01FORECAST2025185-10033.5320.01226.771163.778131915330.0177165450.1977165458.288.477716545TT1.5368.5392439.7342969503272.0188616936260.28025074247184162112124WETL
2025-04-01 20:00:01FORECAST2025185-10033.51220.33626.924162.566683469940.0295275750.3095275758.288.589527575TT1.51268.51292439.2468590209271.406905095620.27954114408233162112124WETL
2025-04-01 16:00:02FORECAST2025185-10033.20619.56226.384162.411153043960.0267716680.2767716688.288.556771668TT1.20669.20692439.1841711472871.3284076346860.26761311387079162112124WETL
2025-04-01 12:00:02FORECAST2025185-10033.31420.04826.681162.996428535930.0287401730.2687401738.288.548740173TT1.31468.31492439.4199427662771.6238812983640.27179359449525162112124WETL
2025-04-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025185-10033.33220.1226.726162.887545576820.023622060.233622068.288.51362206TT1.33268.33292439.376107029871.5688956591830.27249348376381162112124WETL
2025-04-01 04:00:03FORECAST2025185-10033.13420.33626.735162.731224948750.0295275750.2895275758.288.569527575TT1.13468.13492439.3131519238671.4899673486640.26484422447063162112124WETL
2025-04-01 00:00:01FORECAST2025185-10032.07219.34625.709164.111867943110.0452756150.3552756158.188.535275615TT0.07200000000000362.07292439.8683155466372.1876109133480.22575881266196161112123WETL
2025-03-31 20:00:02FORECAST2025185-10032.7219.7626.24160.673940763030.0370078940.3970078948.28.597007894TT0.7265.7292438.4822871065670.4526770241960.24921031646742162112124WETL
2025-03-31 16:00:02FORECAST2025185-10033.24219.81426.528160.560567582880.0366141930.3666141938.28.566614193TT1.24266.24292438.436373315670.3955929485350.26900300310366162112124WETL
2025-03-31 12:00:02FORECAST2025185-10032.79219.56226.177162.033472875390.0444882130.3344882138.28.534488213TT0.79266.79292439.0318407877971.137853865720.25189359800027162112124WETL
2025-03-31 08:00:02FORECAST2025185-10033.02618.87825.952161.625326393360.0086614220.3086614228.138.438661422TT1.02667.02692438.8670580281270.932031497090.26071833639381162112124WETL
2025-03-31 04:00:04FORECAST2025185-10032.7219.05825.889161.668885765180.0137795350.2737795358.148.413779535TT0.7267.7292438.884652587470.9539927632440.24921031646742162112124WETL
2025-03-31 00:00:02FORECAST2025185-10035.0619.6727.365165.147272860350.0177165450.2777165458.238.507716545TT3.0669.0692440.2833815396872.7115997470130.34351325808236162112124WETL
2025-03-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025185-10034.32219.72427.023164.386824988760.0177165450.2777165458.148.417716545TT2.32269.32292439.9786449053272.3266924988450.31230366185922162112124WETL
2025-03-30 16:00:02FORECAST2025185-10034.46619.8527.158164.348112341650.0110236280.2810236288.148.421023628TT2.46670.46692439.9631157154772.3071075677850.31829745044038162112124WETL
2025-03-30 12:00:02FORECAST2025185-10032.57619.54426.06164.626786478230.0413386050.2813386058.088.361338605TT0.57666.57692440.0748689886672.4481114914320.24388961785039161112123WETL
2025-03-30 08:00:02FORECAST2025185-10032.6319.5826.105164.897750310980.0385826980.3485826988.18.448582698TT0.6366.6392440.183454469672.5852613661530.245877677936161112123WETL
2025-03-30 04:00:03FORECAST2025185-10032.77419.59826.186164.415389510050.043307110.333307118.058.38330711TT0.77468.77492439.9901022973772.3411440497880.25122135316765162112124WETL
2025-03-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025185-10031.02819.59825.313164.345409937910.2059056230.6259056237.868.485905623TT-0.97263.02892439.9620316163172.3057404430990.19073130959638161113124.5WETL
2025-03-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025185-10030.39819.72425.061164.60390817490.2291339820.7191339827.888.599133982TT-1.60262.39892440.0656973632872.4365336397110.17130266187484161113124.5WETL
2025-03-29 16:00:02FORECAST2025185-10030.27219.20224.737164.686982896890.2295276830.7095276837.98.609527683TT-1.72860.27292440.0989984333972.4785762279380.16757395160251161113124.5WETL
2025-03-29 12:00:02FORECAST2025185-10028.8519.5824.215168.604747570260.5704727491.2304727498.19.330472749TT-3.1559.8592441.661508237474.4662271078690.12913518796367161114126WETL
2025-03-29 08:00:02FORECAST2025185-10026.83418.80622.82169.056630486360.5704727491.2304727498.139.360472749TT-5.16654.83492441.8407331854574.6961055639550.085816058571137161114126WETL
2025-03-29 04:00:03FORECAST2025185-10026.6919.07622.883169.156755443680.5700790481.2800790488.139.410079048TT-5.3155.6992441.880416724874.7470575872670.083197678263704161114126WETL
2025-03-29 00:00:03FORECAST2025185-10026.07817.0621.569178.14212572640.2767718031.3567718038.9310.286771803TT-5.92244.07892445.400900262779.3446631732510.072734343273705161114126WETL
2025-03-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025185-10026.72617.3322.028167.382445692110.27559071.30559079.2410.5455907TT-5.27446.72692441.1756891504173.8450658298990.083846591497738161114126WETL
2025-03-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025185-10026.18616.7921.488167.453858454020.2381891051.3481891059.2410.588189105TT-5.81447.18692441.2041145466973.8813313466310.074503972905918161114126WETL
2025-03-28 12:00:03FORECAST2025185-10027.03216.35821.695172.685244369250.5200790211.1100790219.4110.520079021TT-4.96848.03292443.2724733136876.5466153763340.08951603973092161114126WETL
2025-03-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025185-10027.2317.40222.316172.07987344190.5200790211.1100790219.310.410079021TT-4.7748.2392443.0345286202376.237325615360.093332962356559161114126WETL
2025-03-28 04:00:04FORECAST2025185-10027.10418.55422.829173.217173896410.6870082451.2770082459.2410.517008245TT-4.89648.10492443.4812496487476.8185687402030.090890397017574161114126WETL
2025-03-28 00:00:03FORECAST2025185-10025.91619.1322.523174.790634477760.4074805350.7174805359.079.787480535TT-6.08444.91692444.0971664598977.6240254953010.070140283884084161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 20:00:02FORECAST2025185-10028.74219.29224.017172.0201422970.4074805350.71748053599.717480535TT-3.25846.74292443.0110310963476.2068206083350.12648768033506161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 16:00:03FORECAST2025185-10029.37219.54424.458172.634047838160.3874017840.8374017848.939.767401784TT-2.62846.37292443.2523643680776.5204498746970.14246986076234161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025185-10030.57821.97426.276173.646506926610.4118112460.6918112469.089.771811246TT-1.42251.57892443.649552422377.0381950776840.17672042168181161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 08:00:04FORECAST2025185-10030.72223.01826.87173.15490749420.4118112460.6918112469.119.801811246TT-1.27851.72292443.4568253633176.7867255734540.18113156271518161113124.5WETL
2025-03-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025185-10029.40823.16226.285175.225818851940.7311027571.1111027579.1110.221102757TT-2.59257.40892444.2670813115977.8470631117860.14342254344808161114126WETL
2025-03-27 00:00:03FORECAST2025185-10028.65223.8126.231177.884793751820.7901579071.2001579079.0810.280157907TT-3.34843.65292445.3011907280979.2123104701060.12431040903901161114126WETL
2025-03-26 20:00:03FORECAST2025185-10028.65224.24226.447181.142223610760.7901579071.2001579079.0310.230157907TT-3.34846.65292446.5585648699680.8906114129770.12431040903901161114126WETL
2025-03-26 16:00:02FORECAST2025185-10028.423.66626.033182.6020236290.799213031.329213039.1310.45921303TT-3.643.492447.1186835021281.6447764098190.11835354247692161114126WETL
2025-03-26 12:00:04FORECAST2025185-10030.3822.69426.537179.814695489410.7606303321.1806303329.1110.290630332TT-1.6248.3892446.04739210980.2058759859260.17076677343422161114126WETL
2025-03-26 08:00:03FORECAST2025185-10030.8322.49626.663178.993649891840.7606303321.1806303328.9710.150630332TT-1.1747.8392445.730379761779.7829075412240.18448467176899161114126WETL
2025-03-26 04:00:05FORECAST2025185-10030.16422.08226.123179.905669090250.8751973231.2951973238.8310.125197323TT-1.83648.16492446.0824770847380.2527665093640.16441974559353161114126WETL
2025-03-26 00:00:03FORECAST2025185-10031.65823.50427.581181.013753798840.1500000810.4300000819.189.610000081TT-0.34240.65892446.5091720851480.8243013447460.21145307636259161112123WETL
2025-03-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025185-10031.65824.06227.86182.958249632880.149606380.429606388.969.38960638TT-0.34236.65892447.2550508528981.8290012435110.21145307636259161112123WETL
2025-03-25 16:00:03FORECAST2025185-10031.94625.4328.688185.06318344810.4275592860.7175592869.069.777559286TT-0.05399999999999841.94692448.0583295864982.9191008437150.22134801351304161113124.5WETL
2025-03-25 12:00:03FORECAST2025185-10036.96824.15230.56195.905289902591.019685592.539685598.9711.50968559TT4.96844.96892452.1285104307688.5743669091670.428801084361291621151210WETL
2025-03-25 08:00:03FORECAST2025185-10036.96824.22430.596196.213200002331.0295281152.5895281158.8611.449528115TT4.96846.96892452.2424725258488.7359427112590.428801084361291621151210WETL
2025-03-25 04:00:04FORECAST2025185-10031.3723.66627.518196.864142035430.8236224922.3336224929.211.533622492TT-0.6339.3792452.4831026449389.0776977877250.2018215869795161115127.5WETL
2025-03-25 00:00:03FORECAST2025185-10028.7622.87425.817202.044179035660.3295277371.9395277378.810.739527737TT-3.2435.7692454.3838636567991.8056146995880.1269262936864161115127.5WETL
2025-03-24 20:00:04FORECAST2025185-10028.7622.24425.502204.971171060450.3295277371.9395277378.5810.519527737TT-3.2430.7692455.4468864967793.3534816810790.1269262936864161115127.5WETL
2025-03-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025185-10026.85222.2824.566203.740518527790.338582861.918582868.4410.35858286TT-5.14830.85292455.0009016937692.7021196416980.086147630906619161115127.5WETL
2025-03-24 12:00:03FORECAST2025185-10028.86822.6425.754200.61084261950.0625984591.2925984599.1910.482598459TT-3.13234.86892453.8604158459191.0493204544850.12958013623703161114126WETL
2025-03-24 08:00:03FORECAST2025185-10028.86822.6425.754200.522682912920.0625984591.2925984599.1810.472598459TT-3.13236.86892453.8281580761991.0028398388670.12958013623703161114126WETL
2025-03-24 04:00:06FORECAST2025185-10030.7429.4830.11206.766460737840.15748041.93748049.6411.5774804TT-1.2636.7492456.0949989603294.3051486952560.18168775347757161115127.5WETL