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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 29, 2025

[ Monday, April 28, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, April 30, 2025 ]

DAY 211 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/30/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.76°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.05°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.40°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.431
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 236

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.34 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.37 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.92 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.29 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 140 in
SWE DAY: 118
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.61 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 62.30 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -74

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-30 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025211-7441.7599631.0499636.40496139.796308333330.340000000000030.370000000000030.921.29FF9.75996235.75996118445.61449690762 62.2952616075010.4311026537971816 2122125DRYL
2025-04-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025211-7339.1127.91433.512141.431911561280.2535434440.2835434440.921.203543444FF7.11233.11119446.8210365860563.1947533301580.32928942619912162122125DRYL
2025-04-29 12:00:02FORECAST2025211-7338.329.4833.89141.356905111750.2531497430.2831497430.921.203149743FF6.3232.3119446.7922508265863.157169804760.30017689651657162122125DRYL
2025-04-29 08:00:02FORECAST2025211-7338.7528.83233.791141.3883099080.2779529060.3079529060.921.227952906FF6.75232.75119446.8043039363663.1729053931810.31620866718742162122125DRYL
2025-04-29 04:00:03FORECAST2025211-7338.89429.04833.971141.359076724650.3141733980.3441733980.921.264173398FF6.894232.894119446.7930843190363.1582578862940.32141461134157162122125DRYL
2025-04-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025211-7439.16429.37234.268141.639568828610.3177167070.3477167070.921.267716707FF7.164236.164118446.3258131627363.2173957334460.33127018870469162122125DRYL
2025-04-28 20:00:01FORECAST2025211-7439.5629.15634.358142.084370649650.2736221950.2836221950.921.203622195FF7.56236.56118446.4969644662363.4402401931630.34593713253326162122125DRYL
2025-04-28 16:00:01FORECAST2025211-7439.34429.46234.403142.157364362670.2547245470.2647245470.921.184724547FF7.344236.344118446.5250325972963.4768217559880.33790661130862162122125DRYL
2025-04-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025211-7439.12829.26434.196141.603227838070.2641733710.2741733710.921.194173371FF7.128236.128118446.311821292563.1991945173070.32994915200179162122125DRYL
2025-04-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025211-7439.1129.55234.331141.651190677580.2614174640.2614174640.921.181417464FF7.11236.11118446.3302874903563.2232166584740.32928942619912162122125DRYL
2025-04-28 04:00:03FORECAST2025211-7439.03830.43434.736142.084359043120.2696851850.2796851850.921.199685185FF7.038236.038118446.4969600027863.4402343766990.32665584769754162122125DRYL
2025-04-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025211-7439.68630.61435.15143.739436455850.2452757230.2552757230.921.175275723FF7.686239.686118447.1321067511164.2705170457240.35065407585538162122125DRYL
2025-04-27 20:00:01FORECAST2025211-7439.43429.76834.601144.131416025880.2685040820.2785040820.921.198504082FF7.434239.434118447.2821408019464.4674083168720.34124396409055162122125DRYL
2025-04-27 16:00:01FORECAST2025211-7439.50630.39834.952144.16663901750.2574804540.2774804540.921.197480454FF7.506239.506118447.2956154366164.4851055247610.34392282591124162122125DRYL
2025-04-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025211-7438.3931.62235.006143.845958378680.3492127870.3592127870.921.279212787FF6.39238.39118447.1728938512364.3240134769960.30335379633948162122125DRYL
2025-04-27 08:00:02FORECAST2025211-7438.35431.94635.15143.825471301120.3413387670.3513387670.921.271338767FF6.354239.354118447.1650502340564.3137240993030.30208123464348162122125DRYL
2025-04-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025211-7437.68832.01834.853144.275960682260.3259844280.3259844280.921.245984428FF5.688238.688118447.3374290089964.5400373194060.27898433310239162122125DRYL
2025-04-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025211-7438.42632.1835.303143.554625709270.1956693970.1956693970.921.115669397FF6.426235.426118447.0613167789764.1777199992980.30462874597826162122125DRYL
2025-04-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025211-7438.42631.80235.114145.238095999910.173228440.173228440.921.09322844FF6.426233.426118447.7049281548865.0238113349930.30462874597826162122125DRYL
2025-04-26 16:00:02FORECAST2025211-7437.99431.85634.925145.231042401020.181102460.181102460.921.10110246FF5.994233.994118447.7022372146665.0202625959550.28948963138271162122125DRYL
2025-04-26 12:00:01FORECAST2025211-7438.6631.58635.123144.314222330820.1307087320.1307087320.921.050708732FF6.66233.66118447.3520606593364.5592647421420.3129732565892162122125DRYL
2025-04-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025211-7438.6631.6435.15144.040989335770.0972441470.0972441470.921.017244147FF6.66236.66118447.2475423475664.4219784777340.3129732565892162122125DRYL
2025-04-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025211-7438.76831.35235.06144.242928412550.0901575290.0901575290.921.010157529FF6.768235.768118447.3247959834664.5234385242020.31685745059217162122125DRYL
2025-04-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025211-7438.76831.4635.114143.852452582220.07874020.13874020.921.0587402FF6.768223.768118447.1753801160964.3272751640870.31685745059217162122125DRYL
2025-04-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025211-7438.3932.59435.492145.983345209830.0811024060.1411024060.921.061102406FF6.39224.39118447.9889684423665.3989282303150.30335379633948162122125DRYL
2025-04-25 16:00:01FORECAST2025211-7438.53432.28835.411146.028320977160.0874016220.1574016220.921.077401622FF6.534223.534118448.0060930679365.4215775582490.30846779760064162122125DRYL
2025-04-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025211-7438.33631.6434.988145.562127831410.3185041090.3585041090.921.278504109FF6.336223.336118447.8284939779465.1868684869660.30144585314146162122125DRYL
2025-04-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025211-7438.31831.49634.907145.717021776060.3185041090.3685041090.921.288504109FF6.318222.318118447.8875250904365.2648362468290.30081107325516162122125DRYL
2025-04-25 04:00:03FORECAST2025211-7438.10231.76634.934145.919353680350.3405513650.3805513650.921.300551365FF6.102223.102118447.9646001500965.3667049255770.29324119278871162122125DRYL
2025-04-25 00:00:02FORECAST2025211-7439.32631.85635.591146.12119593530.3925198970.5125198970.921.432519897FF7.326217.326118448.0414492289165.4683523899140.337240655732162123127.5DRYL
2025-04-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025211-7438.58831.4635.024148.266042320380.3925198970.5225198970.921.442519897FF6.588215.588118448.8556452519766.5500500946690.31039523425317162123127.5DRYL
2025-04-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025211-7438.40831.87435.141148.143526212030.4047246280.5047246280.921.424724628FF6.408215.408118448.8092567853566.4881858967830.30399097344222162123127.5DRYL
2025-04-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025211-7436.98632.28834.637147.252935175260.413386050.473386050.921.39338605FF4.986214.986118448.4716166871766.0387618999790.25560735946417162122125DRYL
2025-04-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025211-7436.39232.59434.493147.235716279940.4027561230.4527561230.931.382756123FF4.392214.392118448.4650811453666.030077448980.23665595483389161122124DRYL
2025-04-24 04:00:04FORECAST2025211-7436.46432.39634.43146.761916515870.4039372260.4539372260.931.383937226FF4.464214.464118448.2851352265865.791185591430.23891121178938161122124DRYL
2025-04-24 00:00:03FORECAST2025211-7436.64432.57634.61147.382866445970.2185040550.2285040550.931.158504055FF4.644207.644118448.5209237165466.1042993983380.24460033772224161122124DRYL
2025-04-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025211-7438.91232.4535.681147.839190001250.2185040550.2285040550.931.158504055FF6.912206.912118448.6939630011366.3345520485370.32206785369483162122125DRYL
2025-04-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025211-7438.98432.52235.753147.984074892820.2141733440.2241733440.931.154173344FF6.984205.984118448.7488618581666.4076851812850.32468630367816162122125DRYL
2025-04-23 12:00:03FORECAST2025211-7439.97432.66636.32147.894263614610.3751970530.3951970530.921.315197053FF7.974202.974118448.7148335229466.3623498768260.36152143266352162122125DRYL
2025-04-23 08:00:02FORECAST2025211-7439.41632.91836.167147.784761853680.3724411460.3924411460.931.322441146FF7.416203.416118448.673334214466.3070818469710.34057548965481162122125DRYL
2025-04-23 04:00:03FORECAST2025211-7439.84833.15236.5147.460428165460.3200789130.3400789130.921.260078913FF7.848202.848118448.5503495068566.1434265920470.35675260460336162122125DRYL
2025-04-23 00:00:03FORECAST2025211-7441.46832.59437.031148.904449619060.2964568530.4064568530.981.386456853FF9.468193.468118449.0971329562266.8725614083420.41951740014103162112124DRYL
2025-04-22 20:00:02FORECAST2025211-7443.5233.42238.471148.861819819120.2964568530.4064568531.091.496456853FF11.52196.52118449.0810197552766.8510178469950.50184888492096163112125DRYL
2025-04-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025211-7443.19633.15238.174148.703723096210.295275750.395275751.121.51527575FF11.196199.196118449.0212471603466.7711312020470.48876322383134162122125DRYL
2025-04-22 12:00:03FORECAST2025211-7445.26633.38639.326148.921070934680.0724409840.1324409841.141.272440984FF13.266201.266118449.1034150041366.8809615228360.5719790878437163122126DRYL
2025-04-22 08:00:03FORECAST2025211-7445.57231.69438.633149.38384500580.0724409840.1324409841.11.232440984FF13.572198.572118449.2782146218167.1149071775480.58410142399853163112125DRYL
2025-04-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025211-7445.60830.14637.877150.043832516450.0468504190.1468504191.091.236850419FF13.608192.608118449.5271507554867.448776519550.58552256915012163112125DRYL
2025-04-22 00:00:04FORECAST2025211-7446.97632.03639.506147.34727991910.0082677210.0982677211.041.138267721FF14.976190.976118448.507420764766.0863484732120.63853722723335163112125DRYL
2025-04-21 20:00:02FORECAST2025211-7447.08433.63840.361147.373155225480.0086614220.0986614221.031.128661422FF15.084194.084118448.517239012166.0994006862340.64262591189557163112125DRYL
2025-04-21 16:00:03FORECAST2025211-7447.51634.5241.018147.009998323040.0700787780.1600787781.081.240078778FF15.516198.516118448.3793820138365.9162521979390.65881348457506163112125DRYL
2025-04-21 12:00:03FORECAST2025211-7447.15634.4340.793148.5657165916200.181.291.47FF15.156196.156118448.969050572366.7014087257330.6453426720307163112125DRYL
2025-04-21 08:00:03FORECAST2025211-7447.3936.17641.783147.6071989363700.181.291.47FF15.39201.39118448.6060163448566.2174774986660.6541206119117163122126DRYL
2025-04-21 04:00:05FORECAST2025211-7445.91434.05239.983148.439843740310.1019685590.4519685591.171.621968559FF13.914202.914118448.9214271970466.6378265048060.59755533946769163122126DRYL
2025-04-21 00:00:03FORECAST2025211-7443.62834.59239.11147.60113346980.0255905650.2955905650.650.945590565FF11.628195.628118448.6037162614666.2144169989560.50621102524034163112125DRYL
2025-04-20 20:00:06FORECAST2025211-7443.73634.46639.101147.315203018450.0255905650.2955905650.640.935590565FF11.736185.736118448.4952484594966.0701685796180.51057242298099163112125DRYL
2025-04-20 16:00:03FORECAST2025211-7444.34834.80839.578147.105925073780.0255905650.2455905650.630.875590565FF12.348188.348118448.4158088645965.9646223807340.53524785585545163112125DRYL
2025-04-20 12:00:03FORECAST2025211-7449.04634.55641.801147.864051909550.0114173290.3614173290.771.131417329FF17.046186.046118448.7033849525366.3471006046120.71367264491637164112126DRYL
2025-04-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025211-7449.04634.50241.774147.341304099180.0102362260.3602362260.751.110236226FF17.046180.046118448.5051531798966.0833341647250.71367264491637164112126DRYL
2025-04-20 04:00:04FORECAST2025211-7447.49834.8841.189147.775847502970.07874020.40874020.951.3587402FF15.498184.498118448.6699553187166.3025828963420.65814455461373163112125DRYL
2025-04-20 00:00:03FORECAST2025211-7438.53435.97837.256154.267662138140.0165354420.3265354421.41.726535442FF6.534176.534118451.1104644115469.5917567108210.30846779760064162112124DRYL
2025-04-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025211-7439.2936.28437.787154.305232760840.0181102460.3181102461.421.738110246FF7.29174.29118451.1244717777969.6108666217830.33591027414902162112124DRYL
2025-04-19 16:00:03FORECAST2025211-7440.0136.4138.21154.341009015720.0181102460.2581102461.551.808110246FF8.01177.01118451.1378089117169.6290646325760.36288795193691162112124DRYL
2025-04-19 12:00:03FORECAST2025211-7445.53639.95642.746149.15561591306000.940.94FF13.536200.536118449.1920333137866.9995143921560.58267917838751163121123DRYL
2025-04-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025211-7445.53639.95642.746148.67848450022000.940.94FF13.536201.536118449.0117028280566.7583794993370.58267917838751163121123DRYL
2025-04-19 04:00:04FORECAST2025211-7446.8545.19446.022148.014682221110.0318897810.1418897810.971.111889781FF14.85196.85118448.7604568067966.4231364076580.63374706076009163112125DRYL