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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 15, 2025

[ Monday, April 14, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, April 16, 2025 ]

DAY 197 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/16/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.72°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.88°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.936
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 150

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.92 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.92 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 156 in
SWE DAY: 104
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.71 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 69.15 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -88

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-16 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025197-8852.7199837.8800645.30002155.83794291667004.924.92TF20.71998149.71998104443.70603590585 69.1462358952760.9358598480122816 5111123.5WETL
2025-04-16 00:00:01FORECAST2025197-8746.95833.11640.037155.985496004.924.92TF14.958143.958105444.3484206861669.3119087975480.79975659876683164111123WETL
2025-04-15 12:00:01FORECAST2025197-8746.41833.69240.055157.0101944004.924.92TF14.418143.418105444.7475549471169.829900061170.7814432585069164111123WETL
2025-04-15 08:00:01FORECAST2025197-8746.43633.40439.92157.1374256004.924.92TF14.436143.436105444.7970408047769.8942619065590.78206880169927164111123WETL
2025-04-15 04:00:02FORECAST2025197-8746.9433.54840.244156.9379185004.924.92TF14.94143.94105444.7194365199569.7933426839330.79916138089602164111123WETL
2025-04-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025197-8847.46234.1640.811158.1389608004.924.92TF15.462133.462104444.6046072544470.3093105581090.81599013067295164111123WETL
2025-04-14 20:00:01FORECAST2025197-8847.15634.59240.874159.9596168004.924.92TF15.156133.156104445.3118799830571.2319176785760.80623393095914164111123WETL
2025-04-14 16:00:01FORECAST2025197-8847.04834.62840.838159.9537128004.924.92TF15.048133.048104445.3095917300371.2289225426710.80271678668347164111123WETL
2025-04-14 12:00:01FORECAST2025197-8847.2135.09641.153159.0725408004.924.92TF15.21133.21104444.9676849249170.7821402148990.80797810744234164111123WETL
2025-04-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025197-8847.44435.20441.324159.0591584004.924.92TF15.444134.444104444.9624864689770.7753586173250.81542482547834164111123WETL
2025-04-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025197-8848.36235.18641.774158.46116908333004.924.92TF16.362135.362104444.7300142654870.4724379869560.84287513942208164111123WETL
2025-04-14 00:00:01FORECAST2025197-8849.40635.72642.566159.4555728004.924.92TF17.406129.406104445.1164006154270.9762906228070.87066151907318165111123.5WETL
2025-04-13 20:00:01FORECAST2025197-8849.02834.75441.891159.7847208004.924.92TF17.028130.028104445.2440798128671.1432009807510.86102126541663165111123.5WETL
2025-04-13 16:00:01FORECAST2025197-8848.39835.70842.053159.7635648004.924.92TF16.398128.398104445.2358764372971.1324707964740.84389404265246164111123WETL
2025-04-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025197-8848.27235.81642.044159.3635688004.924.92TF16.272128.272104445.0806924194770.9296475479430.84030883986859164111123WETL
2025-04-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025197-8849.04636.42842.737159.1140264004.924.92TF17.046133.046104444.9837990775770.8031639540010.86149110239303165111123.5WETL
2025-04-13 04:00:03FORECAST2025197-8846.11233.3539.731159.84029625004.924.92TF14.112125.112104445.2656274524871.1713898019470.77065228521843164111123WETL
2025-04-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025197-8846.14833.72839.938158.91406683036004.74.7TF14.148124.148104444.906113624570.701839873760.77193708210455164111123WETL
2025-04-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025197-8846.88633.9840.433158.6917328004.714.71TF14.886126.886104444.8196892252970.589207266720.79736938081387164111123WETL
2025-04-12 16:00:01FORECAST2025197-8846.90434.32240.613158.6411552004.714.71TF14.904126.904104444.8000221778370.5635893512770.79796777111414164111123WETL
2025-04-12 12:00:01FORECAST2025197-8845.37433.1739.272159.03841400965004.714.71TF13.374123.374104444.9544278641470.7648465140840.74343977841705164111123WETL
2025-04-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025197-8845.46433.22439.344158.95093315651004.714.71TF13.464125.464104444.9204393729470.7205190187310.74684590681088164111123WETL
2025-04-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025197-8844.25832.37838.318159.17274557641004.714.71TF12.258122.258104445.0066043248570.8329230100230.6993120252557164111123WETL
2025-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025197-8842.74631.65837.202161.261712327690.0011811030.0011811034.694.691181103TF10.746121.746104445.8157045126471.8930038922850.63464764562819163111122.5WETL
2025-04-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025197-8843.10631.71237.409161.3461367490.0011811030.0011811034.714.711181103TF11.106121.106104445.8483136729371.9359029871820.65048281489079163111122.5WETL
2025-04-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025197-8842.60231.87437.238161.457415135270.0011811030.0011811034.714.711181103TF10.602119.602104445.8912845682171.992454237730.62824695789377163111122.5WETL
2025-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025197-8844.02432.39638.21161.33238951053004.714.71TF12.024122.024104445.8430042416271.9289172208570.68964283834491163111122.5WETL
2025-04-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025197-8843.95231.76637.859161.34068783842004.714.71TF11.952121.952104445.8462092276271.9331340669340.68664073393516163111122.5WETL
2025-04-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025197-8843.8831.53237.706161.12370651211004.754.75TF11.88121.88104445.7623843341271.8228875875880.68362622200081163111122.5WETL
2025-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025197-8846.00433.51239.758166.69130671153004.744.74TF14.004127.004104447.8987281641774.6608242721190.76677369452669164111123WETL
2025-04-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025197-8844.632.84638.723167.36658051039004.894.89TF12.6122.6104448.1557891450575.0063019651440.71319387445044164111123WETL
2025-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025197-8844.56432.938.732167.40933290413004.864.86TF12.564120.564104448.1720491477875.0281837741040.71174700963229164111123WETL
2025-04-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025197-8842.6231.71237.166167.29415084112004.914.91TF10.62119.62104448.128237964774.9692330382320.62904902644305163111122.5WETL
2025-04-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025197-8842.69231.83837.265167.57869187642004.954.95TF10.692117.692104448.2364440369375.1148769430460.63225166807779163111122.5WETL
2025-04-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025197-8843.73632.5438.138167.16785376595004.94.9TF11.736119.736104448.0801842892974.904602722690.67756064321263163111122.5WETL
2025-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2025197-8844.29434.03439.164166.07020185978004.934.93TF12.294104.294104447.6618984462874.3433018399050.70078745824202164111123WETL
2025-04-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025197-8842.6232.23437.427166.2549271729100.014.874.88TF10.62101.62104447.7323739734574.4377132279080.62904902644305163111122.5WETL
2025-04-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025197-8842.04431.9136.977166.1946338714500.014.864.87TF10.044102.044104447.7093747934574.4068956246130.60312289494294163111122.5WETL
2025-04-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025197-8839.3826.0632.72166.863411954370.0098425250.0198425254.954.969842525TF7.3893.38104447.964286487374.7488492769770.47903212202781162111122WETL
2025-04-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025197-8840.26227.19433.728166.69433746980.0098425250.0198425254.974.989842525TF8.26296.262104447.8998828884274.6623742308870.52049008884458163111122.5WETL
2025-04-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025197-8840.24427.71633.98166.238182083740.0098425250.0198425255.045.059842525TF8.24497.244104447.7259868290974.4291541221160.51964469792252163111122.5WETL
2025-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025197-8838.01228.90433.458166.481131510440.0228346580.0428346585.175.212834658TF6.01289.012104447.8186293553174.5533521265250.41533700680301162111122WETL
2025-04-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025197-8840.8232.28836.554156.920192810090.0452756150.0652756155.385.445275615TF8.8290.82104444.1293199125569.6928585132920.54663272988677163111122.5WETL
2025-04-08 16:00:04FORECAST2025197-8838.87631.51435.195157.526473225650.1472441740.1872441745.455.637244174TF6.87688.876104444.3659371817769.9993989058550.45541473631038162112124WETL
2025-04-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025197-8844.56433.51239.038161.1901751478700.025.395.41TF12.56492.564104445.7880676105971.856656696980.71174700963229164111123WETL
2025-04-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025197-8845.73431.8238.777160.2391703402900.035.235.26TF13.734101.734104445.4201891600371.3737615638180.75692006129372164111123WETL
2025-04-08 04:00:08FORECAST2025197-8845.12231.11838.12160.5669977682900.025.355.37TF13.122101.122104445.5471034561871.5401607663170.73377733530528164111123WETL
2025-04-08 00:00:06FORECAST2025197-8843.98830.27237.13170.4871518939700.046.036.07TF11.98897.988104449.3380079221376.6063572083550.68814334737804163111122.5WETL
2025-04-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025197-8840.06426.76233.413163.7732656292800.046.136.17TF8.06483.064104446.7828147165473.1710805931690.51118655549114163111122.5WETL
2025-04-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025197-8840.6429.94835.294163.1138454094500.046.126.16TF8.6488.64104446.5294923195172.8351425809630.53821617562295163111122.5WETL
2025-04-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025197-8836.8627.66232.261165.522451285420.0704724790.0904724795.655.740472479TF4.8685.86104447.4527287362374.0634724947740.3633077735839162112124WETL
2025-04-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025197-8836.8627.66232.261166.277024196090.070866180.090866185.785.87086618TF4.8680.86104447.7408021110174.4490081861910.3633077735839162112124WETL
2025-04-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025197-8834.64627.28430.965166.609243571230.291338740.331338745.525.85133874TF2.64679.646104447.867458583874.6188584948170.27072469633843162112124WETL
2025-04-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025197-8836.6829.69633.188166.032944573240.3015749660.3015749665.675.971574966TF4.6886.68104447.6476802149874.3242624774720.35537495590665162112124WETL
2025-04-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025197-8836.5929.67833.134167.52262789630.3019686670.3019686675.545.841968667TF4.5987.59104448.2151300534375.0861764494330.35143165959984162112124WETL
2025-04-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025197-8833.828.09430.947170.38254447940.515748310.525748315.56.02574831TF1.883.8104449.298529335476.5526266590180.23873975019486161113124.5WETL
2025-04-06 12:00:03FORECAST2025197-8834.21424.58429.399168.583320034290.1767717490.6567717495.315.966771749TF2.21491.214104448.617861992575.629488601380.25412906816396162113126WETL
2025-04-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025197-8834.21424.58429.399167.338163230980.1767717490.6567717495.275.926771749TF2.214100.214104448.1449802343474.99175785360.25412906816396162113126WETL
2025-04-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025197-8834.21427.0530.632166.086111234860.2523623410.4823623414.915.392362341TF2.214100.214104447.6679694171674.3514321649040.25412906816396162112124WETL
2025-04-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025197-8833.18831.67632.432166.82144289040.007874020.157874025.225.37787402TF1.18875.188104447.94830227574.727382125820.21695415890513161112123WETL
2025-04-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025197-8833.13431.58632.36169.225189307790.007874020.157874025.255.40787402TF1.13470.134104448.8610455301175.9585954027250.21508858045016161112123WETL
2025-04-05 16:00:03FORECAST2025197-8831.85628.2230.038172.041753313020.0566929440.2766929445.215.486692944TF-0.14459.856104449.9234761424577.4056236922340.1737108786446161112123WETL
2025-04-05 12:00:04FORECAST2025197-8828.74226.61827.68171.630462898610.0972441470.4772441474.635.107244147TF-3.25861.742104449.7688075995577.1940286456690.095591079033782161112123WETL
2025-04-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025197-8828.74226.61827.68172.008335104360.0972441470.4772441474.745.217244147TF-3.25859.742104449.9109150290677.3884274394260.095591079033782161112123WETL
2025-04-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025197-8825.23223.70224.467170.7333574560600.414.745.15TF-6.76851.232104449.43088392276.7328437564490.042533882286678161112123WETL