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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 13, 2025

[ Saturday, April 12, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, April 14, 2025 ]

DAY 195 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/14/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.17°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.37°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.727
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 109

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.27 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.71 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.98 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 161 in
SWE DAY: 102
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 71.34 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -90

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-14 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025195-9048.5700822.1700235.37005160.5393770833300.275.715.98TF16.57008108.57008102444.37403985072 71.3395315496390.726728531802816 4112126WETL
2025-04-14 00:00:01FORECAST2025195-8940.94622.04631.496161.62411200.275.715.98TF8.946100.946103445.3771459361271.983685717020.46284459953016162112124WETL
2025-04-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025195-8940.8222.17231.496161.60344800.275.715.98TF8.82100.82103445.369140326171.9731887094930.45827689432881162112124WETL
2025-04-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025195-8942.0822.4632.27161.554051200.275.715.98TF10.08102.08103445.3500014030871.9480969285940.50410226174349163112125WETL
2025-04-13 04:00:03FORECAST2025195-8940.51422.74831.631161.6941522500.275.715.98TF8.514100.514103445.4042776792772.0192670878740.44720798812059162112124WETL
2025-04-13 00:00:01FORECAST2025195-9040.8221.2931.055160.7507028303600.055.715.76TF8.8299.82102444.4564254678671.4466827714290.45827689432881162111122WETL
2025-04-12 20:00:01FORECAST2025195-9041.57621.45231.514160.608761600.065.715.77TF9.576100.576102444.4010943709971.3747094206090.48574465234331162111122WETL
2025-04-12 16:00:01FORECAST2025195-9041.82821.70431.766160.593804800.065.715.77TF9.828100.828102444.3952627950471.3671260873510.49492211282284162111122WETL
2025-04-12 12:00:01FORECAST2025195-9041.46821.39831.433160.7212508096500.065.715.77TF9.468100.468102444.4449462112271.4317476710950.48181348173117162111122WETL
2025-04-12 08:00:01FORECAST2025195-9042.0821.59631.838160.7157371565100.065.715.77TF10.08101.08102444.4427971074171.4289517610170.50410226174349163111122.5WETL
2025-04-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025195-9041.43221.231.316160.8360007764100.065.715.77TF9.432100.432102444.4896664580171.4899403395490.4805034654878162111122WETL
2025-04-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025195-9041.34221.48831.415162.7554243276900.045.715.75TF9.342100.342102445.2357731142372.4645371790740.47722937682007162111122WETL
2025-04-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025195-9041.52222.131.811162.81701994900.065.715.77TF9.522100.522102445.2596560035972.4958502940190.4837788699349162111122WETL
2025-04-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025195-9041.43222.31631.874162.8332439352700.065.715.77TF9.432101.432102445.2659460184972.50409840410.4805034654878162111122WETL
2025-04-11 12:00:01FORECAST2025195-9041.30622.20831.757162.8498159105300.065.715.77TF9.306101.306102445.272370680672.5125235953840.47592015917546162111122WETL
2025-04-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025195-9042.24221.43431.838162.8393198384200.065.715.77TF10.242102.242102445.2683015702372.5071873733020.51000294461779163111122.5WETL
2025-04-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025195-9042.4421.59632.018162.6494969121100.15.715.81TF10.44101.44102445.1946924173872.4106927496290.51721178861993163112125WETL
2025-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025195-9042.99822.87432.936168.6036123115300.125.685.8TF10.998102.998102447.4867483902375.4478822401350.53748971944799163112125WETL
2025-04-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025195-9041.79222.31632.054169.0991093103900.135.825.95TF9.79299.792102447.6759337739575.7016016608740.49361076909748162112124WETL
2025-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025195-9040.87421.95631.415169.0189601041300.15.825.92TF8.87498.874102447.64534819875.6605512478760.46023384330552162112124WETL
2025-04-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025195-9040.60421.7431.172168.7907164411200.155.825.97TF8.60498.604102447.5582144758875.5436716704930.45045967577608162112124WETL
2025-04-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025195-9040.40621.23630.821169.0560694764200.195.826.01TF8.40698.406102447.6595102043275.6795572588810.44331066071919162112124WETL
2025-04-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025195-9040.42421.21830.821168.9185865659500.245.725.96TF8.42499.424102447.6070360731875.6091478704550.44395984503448162112124WETL
2025-04-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025195-9038.98421.16430.074167.640567459780.0047244120.3347244125.665.994724412TF6.98485.984102447.1183670615974.9551767758930.39264455350415162112124WETL
2025-04-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025195-9038.0321.05629.543167.633412772910.0055118140.2855118145.655.935511814TF6.0386.03102447.1156268964574.9515184407490.35959193936178162112124WETL
2025-04-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025195-9038.67820.8429.759167.538777871450.0059055150.2759055155.655.925905515TF6.67886.678102447.0793781007274.9031326185220.38194518195036162112124WETL
2025-04-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025195-9037.29219.79628.544167.802729627610.0086614220.3486614225.676.018661422TF5.29282.292102447.1804600071475.0381018253290.33471049792772162112124WETL
2025-04-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025195-9036.98620.19228.589167.891339246730.0086614220.3586614225.686.038661422TF4.98681.986102447.2143784006475.0834209200770.32459541202088162112124WETL
2025-04-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025195-9037.95820.69629.327167.43931949670.0106299270.3806299275.736.110629927TF5.95882.958102447.0412723379174.85228642720.35713604136309162112124WETL
2025-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025195-9036.7718.4127.59167.418112401340.0188976480.3488976485.96.248897648TF4.7776.77102447.0331459594774.8414454773680.31753184877934162112124WETL
2025-04-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025195-9037.16619.70628.436158.217428216350.0224409570.3324409576.136.462440957TF5.16677.166102443.4659067618270.1640352694860.33053040287356162112124WETL
2025-04-08 16:00:04FORECAST2025195-9037.00419.72428.364158.298786263470.0267716680.3167716686.226.536771668TF5.00477.004102443.497817183470.2051661706320.32518694395804162112124WETL
2025-04-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025195-9036.39220.71428.553162.539927947870.0244094620.2244094626.256.474409462TF4.39276.392102445.1521878265772.3550045351660.30533011310243162112124WETL
2025-04-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025195-9039.81221.41630.614161.794874340290.0259842660.2359842666.086.315984266TF7.81282.812102444.8628486513571.9765286962090.42198312680979162112124WETL
2025-04-08 04:00:08FORECAST2025195-9039.8321.54230.686162.071632168290.0165354420.2365354426.196.426535442TF7.8382.83102444.9703905910372.1170774696510.42262639215966162112124WETL
2025-04-08 00:00:05FORECAST2025195-9039.220.87630.038171.808860693970.0385826980.5885826986.547.128582698TT7.280.2102448.7063411515977.0917252594150.4002467200507162113126WETL
2025-04-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025195-9037.43618.15827.797164.536357629280.0385826980.6085826986.627.228582698TT5.43671.436102445.9248009126273.3708425187240.33951291241371162113126WETL
2025-04-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025195-9037.8519.02228.436164.011843809450.0374015950.5774015956.647.217401595TT5.8573.85102445.7221947258473.1037189837790.35346328895845162113126WETL
2025-04-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025195-9038.1218.30228.211165.978689080970.0173228440.4473228446.286.727322844TT6.1277.12102446.4805467656874.106255852320.36266997106281162112124WETL
2025-04-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025195-9037.417.29427.347166.506398344640.0173228440.4573228446.46.857322844TT5.478.4102446.6833706429874.3756392462060.33830982696175162112124WETL
2025-04-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025195-9035.63617.22226.429166.173376742520.0173228440.5373228446.066.597322844TT3.63677.636102446.5554061830474.2056197480630.28157402167926162113126WETL
2025-04-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025195-9038.98419.90429.444165.917430185930.0035433090.2735433096.466.733543309TT6.98476.984102446.4569844300974.0749955452020.39264455350415162112124WETL
2025-04-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025195-9038.1220.89429.507167.385728475150.0035433090.2735433096.336.603543309TT6.1279.12102447.0207358699774.8248915170910.36266997106281162112124WETL
2025-04-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025195-9037.56220.8429.201167.978368391650.0051181130.3451181136.226.565118113TT5.56276.562102447.2476843829375.1279362895890.34373652955682162112124WETL
2025-04-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025195-9037.8524.1731.01168.040502044730.4578742630.6778742636.156.827874263TT5.8582.85102447.2714583768175.1597204159170.35346328895845162113126WETL
2025-04-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025195-9038.22827.28432.756166.795345241420.4578742630.6778742636.116.787874263TT6.22892.228102446.7943116093474.5232114567830.36637533626536162113126WETL
2025-04-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025195-9038.91227.5933.251164.828492943870.2066930250.3666930255.816.176693025TF6.91291.912102446.0375282836573.5196935834050.39011941426465162112124WETL
2025-04-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025195-9031.35221.8326.591167.010556419590.0791339010.4391339015.926.359133901TF-0.64873.352102446.876888905874.6331578672120.16614793433642161112123WETL
2025-04-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025195-9031.5521.72226.636169.448956069060.0807087050.4507087055.946.390708705TF-0.4566.55102447.8093652035875.8808294516930.17069880925728161112123WETL
2025-04-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025195-9030.45221.59626.024171.53778949710.153543390.493543395.936.42354339TF-1.54860.452102448.6035828367176.9524669602890.14645740158643161113124.5WETL
2025-04-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025195-9033.90824.49429.201170.204966748030.2732284940.5432284945.425.963228494TF1.90863.908102448.0973027682976.268386517560.23086751464785161113124.5WETL
2025-04-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025195-9033.90824.49429.201170.582838953780.2732284940.5432284945.536.073228494TF1.90861.908102448.241013730876.4622246577180.23086751464785161113124.5WETL
2025-04-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025195-9033.5323.32428.427170.159898005590.31496080.55496085.566.1149608TF1.5356.53102448.08015318276.245273163780.22049580086693161113124.5WETL
2025-04-05 00:00:35FORECAST2025195-9032.48623.7228.103178.915837286160.6039373341.6039373345.046.643937334TT0.48651.486102451.3753805331680.758204138450.19327544198226161115127.5WETL
2025-04-04 20:00:03FORECAST2025195-9032.52223.77428.148178.805152661970.6106302511.6106302514.956.560630251TT0.52255.522102451.3341809650380.7008771290160.19417860087304161115127.5WETL
2025-04-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025195-9035.36624.76430.065178.451634346380.6468507431.6168507434.916.526850743TT3.36659.366102451.2025150583480.5178262333590.273310882419521621151210WETL
2025-04-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025195-9035.4222.51428.967172.656754753570.0822835090.7222835094.825.542283509TF3.4254.42102449.0273064632677.5275975296840.27495387050044162113126WETL
2025-04-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025195-9035.4222.51428.967169.020605363540.0822835090.7222835094.815.532283509TF3.4263.42102447.6459761047175.6613938697720.27495387050044162113126WETL
2025-04-04 04:00:04FORECAST2025195-9036.62622.69429.66171.089192919690.0610236550.6410236554.915.551023655TF4.62667.626102448.4333722742976.7221037406650.31285921287596162113126WETL
2025-04-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025195-9026.85221.72224.287182.016383930570.3523623951.2923623955.346.632362395TT-5.14852.852102452.5247868814582.3669253471110.083643466816873161114126WETL
2025-04-03 20:00:03FORECAST2025195-9026.85221.72224.287181.800937488220.3523623951.2923623955.396.682362395TT-5.14854.852102452.44521085682.2549634956780.083643466816873161114126WETL
2025-04-03 16:00:03FORECAST2025195-9023.97220.06622.019178.520805856250.1275591241.0875591245.146.227559124TT-8.02847.972102451.2282869020580.5536374028890.050015108468284161114126WETL
2025-04-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025195-9031.22628.18429.705175.420031880520.1401575560.6401575565.135.770157556TF-0.77476.226102450.0685444403878.9510384141510.16329301401485161113124.5WETL
2025-04-03 08:00:03FORECAST2025195-9031.22628.18429.705176.147031761870.1401575560.6401575565.145.780157556TF-0.77466.226102450.3412751180779.3262788919040.16329301401485161113124.5WETL
2025-04-03 04:00:04FORECAST2025195-9034.95233.36834.16172.304989292080.0625984590.1825984595.175.352598459TF2.95270.952102448.8942316117477.3467157711350.26087830102868162112124WETL