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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 12, 2025

[ Friday, April 11, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, April 13, 2025 ]

DAY 194 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/13/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.69°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.51°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.10°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.139
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 121

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.24 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.75 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.60 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 162 in
SWE DAY: 101
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 72.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -91

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-13 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025194-9129.6900622.5100426.10005162.032156250.240000000000010.750000000000015.66.35TT-2.30994120.69006101444.37275929814 72.002676367840.1385397970169316 1113124.5WETL
2025-04-13 00:00:01FORECAST2025194-9029.49819.32824.413161.071683630360.0185039470.5285039475.66.128503947TF-2.502120.498102444.5814756856871.6094867995640.13462734511085161113124.5WETL
2025-04-12 12:00:01FORECAST2025194-9028.79619.16623.981161.104912409650.0267716680.5367716685.66.136771668TF-3.204119.796102444.5944153916271.6263443494860.12097367868674161113124.5WETL
2025-04-12 08:00:01FORECAST2025194-9028.90419.23824.071161.132559556510.0342519870.5442519875.66.144251987TF-3.096119.904102444.6051807071471.6403707594240.1230085229599161113124.5WETL
2025-04-12 04:00:02FORECAST2025194-9029.24619.00424.125161.230092776410.0259842660.5359842665.66.135984266TF-2.754120.246102444.6431524002971.6898567138960.12960953716487161113124.5WETL
2025-04-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025194-9129.17419.90424.539163.143809127690.0370078940.5170078945.66.117007894TF-2.826120.174101444.8056471171672.5672875922020.12819991166064161113124.5WETL
2025-04-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025194-9129.2119.05824.134163.2027479490.0480315220.5380315225.66.138031522TF-2.79120.21101444.8285643315172.5972440651090.12890339195869161113124.5WETL
2025-04-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025194-9129.60619.61624.611163.218184735270.051181130.541181135.66.14118113TF-2.394120.606101444.8345660586872.6050903796020.13681800649989161113124.5WETL
2025-04-11 12:00:01FORECAST2025194-9129.5719.65224.611163.222259910530.0460630170.5360630175.66.136063017TF-2.43120.57101444.836150422472.6071617618460.13608510253139161113124.5WETL
2025-04-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025194-9129.91219.29224.602163.232526238420.0480315220.5380315225.66.138031522TF-2.088120.912101444.8401417356772.6123801077680.1431562746291161113124.5WETL
2025-04-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025194-9129.40818.91424.161163.053428912110.082677210.582677215.66.18267721TF-2.592120.408101444.7704978632172.5213547555430.13282022526203161113124.5WETL
2025-04-11 00:00:01FORECAST2025194-9131.3719.79625.583169.068650711530.0968504460.5668504465.66.166850446TF-0.63121.37101447.0923295692275.5892969037440.17603809939498161113124.5WETL
2025-04-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025194-9130.48820.08425.286169.514160510390.1059055690.7159055695.66.315905569TF-1.512119.488101447.2628862395975.817392688360.15561618122509161113124.5WETL
2025-04-10 16:00:01FORECAST2025194-9130.25419.52624.89169.392486504130.0763779940.6863779945.66.286377994TF-1.746119.254101447.2163243472975.7550851864220.1504708407091161113124.5WETL
2025-04-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025194-9129.51619.38224.449169.149679641120.1216536090.7416536095.66.341653609TF-2.484118.516101447.1233646270375.6307738867230.13499077867808161113124.5WETL
2025-04-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025194-9128.90419.6724.287169.376459876420.1618111110.7818111115.66.381811111TT-3.096118.904101447.2101902464675.7468788446050.1230085229599161113124.5WETL
2025-04-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025194-9129.26420.22824.746169.257476165950.2027560150.7327560155.66.332756015TF-2.736120.264101447.1646420970175.6859587519890.12996360978228161113124.5WETL
2025-04-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025194-9128.1319.65223.891167.865451884120.3082678830.7682678835.596.358267883TT-3.87108.13101446.6307374918874.9738705744120.10894677468777161113124.5WETL
2025-04-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025194-9128.25619.56223.909167.805038791920.2444883210.7144883215.596.304488321TF-3.744109.256101446.6075235553474.9429928149670.11115381501895161113124.5WETL
2025-04-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025194-9127.96819.52623.747167.735363726510.2330709920.7030709925.596.293070992TF-4.032108.968101446.5807462504474.9073839055730.10615553141051161113124.5WETL
2025-04-09 12:00:01FORECAST2025194-9127.28419.52623.405167.916167472810.2799214110.7899214115.596.379921411TT-4.716106.284101446.650222379574.9997935428430.094937818726547161113124.5WETL
2025-04-09 08:00:01FORECAST2025194-9125.7919.36422.577167.984162866660.3011812650.8111812655.596.401181265TT-6.21105.79101446.676342215975.0345514194810.073505680586283161113124.5WETL
2025-04-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025194-9125.93419.16622.55167.566085114310.3318899430.8818899435.596.471889943TT-6.066105.934101446.5156698733674.8208827428730.075395071140714161113124.5WETL
2025-04-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025194-9124.90819.41822.163167.438439460390.2921261420.9121261425.696.602126142TT-7.092100.908101446.4665800942574.7556674421970.062711289065665161113124.5WETL
2025-04-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025194-9125.14219.88622.514158.223689678890.2669292780.8769292785.936.806929278TT-6.858101.142101442.8804062486970.0741719631540.065447262799106161113124.5WETL
2025-04-08 16:00:03FORECAST2025194-9126.34819.422.874158.267740308140.240157610.930157615.956.88015761TT-5.652101.348101442.8977502034370.0964261122550.081032529257837161113124.5WETL
2025-04-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025194-9126.67219.05822.865162.516252549420.1633859150.8833859155.946.823385915TT-5.328100.672101444.5614210861572.2484561829670.085661217631865161113124.5WETL
2025-04-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025194-9128.65218.91423.783161.893557686120.1665355230.8965355235.766.656535523TT-3.348103.652101444.3187019996371.9323354131970.1182974517244161113124.5WETL
2025-04-08 04:00:08FORECAST2025194-9129.62418.8624.242162.232893090210.1775591510.9275591515.856.777559151TT-2.376103.624101444.4510185212672.1045745715950.13718546551844161113124.5WETL
2025-04-08 00:00:04FORECAST2025194-9128.88618.4123.648171.81699039130.4429136251.2429136256.227.462913625TT-3.114101.886101448.1414191654776.9983099106980.12266773129114161114126WETL
2025-04-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025194-9125.93418.6822.307164.441032963310.4429136251.3029136256.267.562913625TT-6.06694.934101445.309254995473.2271138795640.075395071140714161114126WETL
2025-04-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025194-9126.45618.44622.451163.953182537370.4082679371.3082679376.247.548267937TT-5.54497.456101445.1200564896372.978849872690.082554046247946161114126WETL
2025-04-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025194-9127.71618.93223.324166.067184845090.2641733710.9541733716.137.084173371TT-4.28499.716101445.9382199016974.0557047939020.10191656104763161113124.5WETL
2025-04-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025194-9127.78818.78823.288166.528575354680.2653544740.9453544746.267.205354474TT-4.212101.788101446.1162044452574.2910959689040.10311496583859161113124.5WETL
2025-04-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025194-9127.10419.14823.126166.154537559370.2870080290.9670080295.986.947008029TT-4.896103.104101445.9719328173674.1002602617250.09213595296417161113124.5WETL
2025-04-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025194-9127.10419.70623.405166.101395737720.0688976750.6188976756.487.098897675TT-4.89699.104101445.9514241482774.0731539822530.09213595296417161113124.5WETL
2025-04-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025194-9130.12819.68824.908167.585964832530.0688976750.6288976756.346.968897675TT-1.872102.128101446.5233137540574.8310403556920.14774762653025161113124.5WETL
2025-04-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025194-9129.31819.38224.35168.160453161510.1078740740.6578740746.276.927874074TT-2.682100.318101446.7440415862275.1246804803450.13102983084897161113124.5WETL
2025-04-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025194-9131.67620.1225.898166.293433740630.1791339550.6391339556.16.739133955TT-0.324105.676101446.0255230236274.1711157595570.18350183694407161113124.5WETL
2025-04-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025194-9136.78820.6628.724165.275044232380.1791339550.6391339556.066.699133955TT4.788114.788101445.6321593544573.6518748486770.33481482376177162113126WETL
2025-04-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025194-9138.28220.22829.255164.720931638220.1157480940.5657480945.776.335748094TF6.282114.282101445.4176997080773.3696184640660.38677580605495162113126WETL
2025-04-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025194-9134.68221.48828.085166.460736405860.2468505270.7168505275.936.646850527TT2.682102.682101446.0900481848574.2564779241760.26680658467071162113126WETL
2025-04-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025194-9131.22621.77626.501168.872299199740.255905650.725905655.956.67590565TT-0.77496.226101447.0170980728175.4888051331490.17259306594001161113124.5WETL
2025-04-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025194-9131.71218.93225.322170.476762415240.2133859420.6933859425.956.643385942TT-0.28890.712101447.6307454213876.3106402369590.1843926804783161113124.5WETL
2025-04-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025194-9131.6421.25426.447168.493064655970.1244095160.7644095165.36.064409516TF-0.3690.64101446.8716892295875.2947804262810.18261367473988161113124.5WETL
2025-04-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025194-9131.9121.84826.879168.870936861710.1244095160.7644095165.416.174409516TF-0.0988.91101447.0165759659875.4881079760890.18934016081173161113124.5WETL
2025-04-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025194-9131.31621.57826.447167.933332570830.1224410110.8024410115.376.172441011TF-0.68484.316101446.6568166275875.0085677317480.17474115483707161113124.5WETL
2025-04-05 00:00:33FORECAST2025194-9131.9122.1927.05174.160982968920.7724413621.2724413625.146.412441362TT-0.0979.91101449.0303940013378.2035748021930.18934016081173161114126WETL
2025-04-04 20:00:03FORECAST2025194-9131.98224.02628.004174.010776042750.7720476611.2620476615.066.322047661TT-0.01800000000000183.982101448.9735856004678.1262420530330.19115927256606161114126WETL
2025-04-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025194-9132.95424.65628.805173.73144165210.7417326841.1217326845.136.251732684TT0.95484.954101448.8678834227477.9824644983610.21675052562299161114126WETL
2025-04-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025194-9130.2921.66825.979172.10213895060.3322836440.7522836445.085.832283644TF-1.7180.29101448.249846641677.1447573912970.15125498805835161113124.5WETL
2025-04-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025194-9130.2921.66825.979169.079534537250.3318899430.7418899435.085.821889943TF-1.7189.29101447.0964985771875.5948678726620.15125498805835161113124.5WETL
2025-04-04 04:00:04FORECAST2025194-9131.44221.79426.618171.147588484780.2988190590.7088190595.155.858819059TF-0.55892.442101447.8865709240776.6547065283710.17777678978326161113124.5WETL
2025-04-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025194-9130.6523.43227.041178.13325883710.5153546091.3653546095.286.645354609TT-1.3586.65101450.5248738897880.2534639731590.15924535774296161114126WETL
2025-04-03 20:00:03FORECAST2025194-9130.6523.43227.041177.917812394760.5153546091.3653546095.336.695354609TT-1.3588.65101450.4442031445180.1420472293710.15924535774296161114126WETL
2025-04-03 16:00:03FORECAST2025194-9128.9423.64826.294176.981922684920.51181131.38181135.096.4718113TT-3.0684.94101450.0932601841779.6583705749170.12369209007498161114126WETL
2025-04-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025194-9139.23624.2631.748174.103483418580.2964568530.5064568535.495.996456853TF7.236106.236101449.0086501776178.1739700809950.42112237533729162113126WETL
2025-04-03 08:00:03FORECAST2025194-9139.23624.6231.928174.830483299920.2964568530.5064568535.56.006456853TF7.23696.236101449.283336228678.5484228114480.42112237533729162113126WETL
2025-04-03 04:00:04FORECAST2025194-9139.6523.93631.793171.841584228950.0582677480.1882677485.475.658267748TF7.6596.65101448.1507740443677.0109389852130.43623314103945162112124WETL
2025-04-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025194-9126.11422.69424.404178.013064758930.0578740470.3878740475.766.147874047TF-5.88674.114101450.4798744328580.1913030600080.077808408415438161112123WETL
2025-04-02 20:00:04FORECAST2025194-9126.09622.69424.395175.762823380670.0578740470.3878740475.766.147874047TF-5.90477.096101449.6348654600779.029093443650.077564476921548161112123WETL
2025-04-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025194-9124.90821.16423.036177.575847305470.0405512030.4205512035.656.070551203TF-7.09275.908101450.3160686780979.965257450780.062711289065665161112123WETL
2025-04-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025194-9131.38826.92429.156170.057930765110.2153544470.4553544474.264.715354447TF-0.612101.388101447.4707990579776.095958165610.17647176186166161112123WETL
2025-04-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025194-9131.38826.92429.156168.994690689350.2153544470.4453544474.244.685354447TF-0.612106.388101447.0639964118275.551441791960.17647176186166161112123WETL
2025-04-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025194-9134.89833.02633.962167.042642472500.174.114.28TF2.898103.898101446.3142638391474.5535140048580.27344982637645162112124WETL