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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 10, 2025

[ Wednesday, April 9, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, April 11, 2025 ]

DAY 192 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/11/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.30°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.51°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.90°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.726
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 159

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.48 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.59 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.64 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.23 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 163 in
SWE DAY: 99
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.44 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 72.12 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -93

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-04-11 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025192-9346.2999231.5100438.90498162.642391250.480000000000021.595.647.23TT14.29992159.2999299443.44110359777 72.122321467680.725932908783716 41151215WETL
2025-04-11 00:00:01FORECAST2025192-9242.67429.40836.041168.581164631850.4476380371.5576380375.647.197638037TT10.674155.674100446.330610916175.2429341990820.588782351647791631151212.5WETL
2025-04-10 12:00:01FORECAST2025192-9243.03430.05636.545168.558360698940.5940948091.7040948095.647.344094809TT11.034156.034100446.3218314612675.2312762552570.603246044125251631151212.5WETL
2025-04-10 08:00:01FORECAST2025192-9243.5230.12836.824168.591430085780.5874018921.6974018925.647.337401892TT11.52156.52100446.3345629231775.2481822599270.622545512374961631151212.5WETL
2025-04-10 04:00:03FORECAST2025192-9244.65430.50637.58168.27652892330.4929136521.6029136525.647.242913652TT12.654157.654100446.213284971575.0872227544660.666332856029291631151212.5WETL
2025-04-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025192-9344.4229.37236.896166.321077063360.4429136251.5429136255.647.182913625TT12.42148.4299444.8776244273973.9925256561540.657457857289431631151212.5WETL
2025-04-09 20:00:01FORECAST2025192-9344.65429.42637.04166.494531456980.425197081.525197085.647.16519708TT12.654148.65499444.9450272828774.0809138415750.666332856029291631151212.5WETL
2025-04-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025192-9344.70829.2136.959166.455229441740.4342522031.5342522035.647.174252203TT12.708148.70899444.9297574664974.0608848645410.668368014376521631151212.5WETL
2025-04-09 12:00:01FORECAST2025192-9344.38429.26436.824166.295990543550.4456695321.5456695325.647.185669532TT12.384148.38499444.8678735676473.9797436959320.656084575355171631151212.5WETL
2025-04-09 08:00:01FORECAST2025192-9344.54629.60637.076166.270413370650.4633860771.5633860775.647.203386077TT12.546148.54699444.8579313566373.9667121378770.66224788351971631151212.5WETL
2025-04-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025192-9343.95229.87636.914165.723705511660.5102364961.6102364965.647.250236496TT11.952148.95299444.6452637053473.6882607394560.639449093850091631151212.5WETL
2025-04-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025192-9343.26829.15636.212165.635843417050.5791341711.7791341715.647.419134171TT11.268145.26899444.6110580720273.6435275963060.612573186920141631151212.5WETL
2025-04-08 20:00:01FORECAST2025192-9342.38628.56235.474156.580817092150.5712601512.0112601515.647.651260151TT10.386145.38699441.0445914109569.0591224972010.57712285655621631151212.5WETL
2025-04-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025192-9342.02628.77835.402156.744109870640.637795622.097795625.647.73779562TT10.026145.02699441.1096358439369.141337225720.562454120958991631151212.5WETL
2025-04-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025192-9341.6328.74235.186161.496961521860.6783468232.1283468235.647.768346823TT9.63144.6399442.9910678483771.5417114388350.546219557669481631151212.5WETL
2025-04-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025192-9341.10830.00235.555160.864312437680.6917326571.9617326575.647.601732657TT9.108144.10899442.7419401318371.2213777866320.524705285649661631151212.5WETL
2025-04-08 04:00:07FORECAST2025192-9342.40430.39836.401161.162715926310.7070869962.0670869965.647.707086996TT10.404144.40499442.859496829671.3724392828150.577853669734011631151212.5WETL
2025-04-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025192-9342.8930.12836.509168.83145326690.6881893482.1381893485.928.058189348TT10.89141.8999445.8502453185175.2735448565270.597476394889831631151212.5WETL
2025-04-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025192-9343.03431.2837.157161.284660161860.7299216542.1899216545.958.139921654TT11.034138.03499442.9075113841671.4341874567310.603246044125251631151212.5WETL
2025-04-07 16:00:01FORECAST2025192-9343.46630.57837.022160.994082044340.7748035682.2148035685.958.164803568TT11.466140.46699442.7930740971371.287064499860.620415196806941631151212.5WETL
2025-04-07 12:00:01FORECAST2025192-9344.43830.75837.598164.216995285310.5220475261.8520475265.957.802047526TT12.438140.43899444.0576273523272.9218092973220.658143720384341631151212.5WETL
2025-04-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025192-9344.97831.92838.453164.582469018040.5086616921.8486616926.077.918661692TT12.978140.97899444.2003734655373.1075942036930.678468467794361631151212.5WETL
2025-04-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025192-9344.90631.38838.147164.149807813270.4460632331.6860632335.897.576063233TT12.906142.90699444.0313709604972.8876642062270.675787483860691631151212.5WETL
2025-04-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025192-9345.01431.92838.471165.148177227520.3519686941.6719686946.317.981968694TT13.014139.01499444.4210656882973.3953289199330.679805495806821631151212.5WETL
2025-04-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025192-9343.73632.16237.949166.548941496050.3551183021.7051183026.147.845118302TT11.736140.73699444.9661644287974.1086436871720.631028969403981631151212.5WETL
2025-04-06 16:00:01FORECAST2025192-9343.10630.86636.986166.74434338490.3157482021.73574820267.735748202TT11.106139.10699445.0420498387474.2082443790320.606122502315661631151212.5WETL
2025-04-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025192-9344.63630.97437.805165.124438581080.4157482561.6957482565.977.665748256TT12.636141.63699444.4118112186173.3832508262730.66565337785631631151212.5WETL
2025-04-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025192-9344.630.63237.616164.406715609280.4157482561.6457482565.987.625748256TT12.6144.699444.1317445356773.0182414169270.664292794994771631151212.5WETL
2025-04-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025192-9345.66231.47838.57164.14262430260.4070868341.6270868345.77.327086834TT13.662143.66299444.0285634298572.8840136666890.703460098461921641151215WETL
2025-04-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025192-9345.5931.4638.525164.885955727270.3578742091.6178742095.827.437874209TT13.59134.5999444.3188081280373.2619313257910.700871598158881641151215WETL
2025-04-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025192-9343.95230.81237.382166.941314433740.3578742091.5778742095.887.457874209TT11.952132.95299445.118506531874.3086685592030.639449093850091631151212.5WETL
2025-04-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025192-9343.48430.5637.022168.529881760230.3519686941.6119686945.847.451968694TT11.484128.48499445.7337318610875.1194531270950.621125711681661631151212.5WETL
2025-04-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025192-9340.92828.99434.961166.865892729290.4937010541.5237010545.426.943701054TT8.928126.92899445.0892352048874.2702125766610.517266619047021631151212.5WETL
2025-04-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025192-9336.89627.66232.279167.31108457670.4937010541.6237010545.437.053701054TT4.896124.89699445.2619340146474.4972571007090.353844521941031621151210WETL
2025-04-05 04:00:03FORECAST2025192-9336.91427.10432.009166.470026758160.5562995131.7262995135.357.076299513TT4.914121.91499444.9355067731274.0684257181780.354539118313761621151210WETL
2025-04-05 00:00:23FORECAST2025192-9337.81429.10233.458167.928956232450.2681103811.3281103815.236.558110381TT5.814115.81499445.5012954051374.8125675375860.38984122736288162114128WETL
2025-04-04 20:00:03FORECAST2025192-9339.1128.65233.881167.818701786040.2574804541.2774804545.196.467480454TT7.11118.1199445.4586107361674.7562857531540.44223955310086162114128WETL
2025-04-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025192-9338.73227.8633.296167.883601165120.1507874831.1807874835.256.430787483TT6.732116.73299445.4837377779174.7894141586550.42680866919708162114128WETL
2025-04-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025192-9339.228.0433.62168.043765799880.1145669911.1345669915.216.344566991TT7.2118.299445.5457308723274.8711824518430.44592743744526162114128WETL
2025-04-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025192-9340.06429.62434.844166.336923736020.0992126521.1092126525.226.329212652TT8.064127.06499444.8837835379974.0005999737520.48152302055721162114128WETL
2025-04-04 04:00:03FORECAST2025192-9339.86629.60634.736167.56721032050.1271654231.1271654235.36.427165423TT7.866127.86699445.3612018483274.6279341787060.47334228633979162114128WETL
2025-04-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025192-9336.60826.9631.784171.159290523390.4342522031.9942522034.876.864252203TT4.608122.60899446.7466183046476.4648342327480.342798461284731621151210WETL
2025-04-03 20:00:02FORECAST2025192-9339.86628.41834.142170.910391528420.4342522031.9942522034.926.914252203TT7.866124.86699446.6510284027376.337302140880.473342286339791621151210WETL
2025-04-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025192-9339.34428.7634.052169.725497270310.4232285751.7832285754.886.663228575TT7.344124.34499446.1951390609175.7306918567090.451837662899551621151210WETL
2025-04-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025192-9344.49232.59438.543171.056824171540.0062992161.6162992165.036.646299216TT12.492130.49299446.7072733204176.412327508520.66019817428151631151212.5WETL
2025-04-03 08:00:03FORECAST2025192-9341.48630.81236.149171.721891128840.0062992161.6162992165.046.656299216TT9.486121.48699446.9624630657476.7532394212530.540295412447081631151212.5WETL
2025-04-03 04:00:04FORECAST2025192-9340.29831.89236.095171.480921030510.0744094891.69440948956.694409489TT8.298122.29899446.8700513475676.6296879860330.491200932671861621151210WETL
2025-04-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025192-9337.92231.15434.538176.902098786930.2484253312.2384253314.927.158425331TT5.922113.92299448.9354495651379.4176232479240.394145860883591621151210WETL
2025-04-02 20:00:04FORECAST2025192-9337.90431.11834.511174.662918358750.2468505272.1968505274.967.156850527TT5.904116.90499448.0857970435778.2639729867350.393427508004611621151210WETL
2025-04-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025192-9337.5830.32633.953176.228578105090.2566930522.2166930524.847.056693052TT5.58116.5899448.6803914657979.0703074116530.380561373812491621151210WETL
2025-04-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025192-9346.32832.82839.578168.764473476170.0090551230.5990551234.825.419055123TF14.328126.32899445.8243750956475.2393159258580.72690247783463164113129WETL
2025-04-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025192-9346.34632.79239.569167.70871180040.0090551230.5890551234.815.399055123TF14.346131.34699445.4160165399874.7001463491880.72752310214077164113129WETL
2025-04-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025192-9345.42834.5239.974168.09296407250.1078740740.7478740744.625.367874074TF13.428126.42899445.5647684226474.8963026104390.69501034754861163113127.5WETL
2025-04-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025192-9342.40434.64638.525167.246819960580.1688977290.7188977294.295.008897729TF10.404124.40499445.2370165451774.4644751459140.57785366973401163113127.5WETL
2025-04-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025192-9342.72834.77238.75165.558718053250.1688977290.7188977294.45.118897729TF10.728127.72899444.5810260683573.6042647466740.59096013232528163113127.5WETL
2025-04-01 16:00:03FORECAST2025192-9344.00633.5338.768166.430905865810.1681103270.8881103274.35.188110327TF12.006129.00699444.9203063849374.0484896297360.64154379159871163113127.5WETL
2025-04-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025192-9346.88633.67440.28165.773348841150.0480315220.8980315224.034.928031522TF14.886130.88699444.6645869984873.7135376978050.7458102641882164113129WETL
2025-04-01 08:00:03FORECAST2025192-9346.86833.67440.271165.727522612740.0480315220.9080315223.994.898031522TF14.868129.86899444.6467495697473.6902042440020.74521121576734164113129WETL
2025-04-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025192-9344.83425.39435.114165.873716429150.1511811840.6711811844.114.781181184TF12.834131.83499444.7036468861773.7646466186040.67309736095777163113127.5WETL
2025-04-01 00:00:03FORECAST2025192-9333.90828.0430.974164.825776019160.011811030.371811033.874.24181103TF1.908115.90899444.2953304566373.2313226242050.24668976797736161112123WETL
2025-03-31 20:00:03FORECAST2025192-9333.90828.0430.974160.613337755990.011811030.371811033.934.30181103TF1.908122.90899442.6429991074371.0943695209660.24668976797736161112123WETL
2025-03-31 16:00:03FORECAST2025192-9336.01435.29435.654159.4005135893100.13.944.04TF4.014129.01499442.1639810766270.4811656743050.32044403277652162112124WETL
2025-03-31 12:00:03FORECAST2025192-9340.24436.12238.183159.2279590813600.053.643.69FF8.244140.24499442.0957088178770.3939974336970.48896690074025162111122DRYL
2025-03-31 08:00:03FORECAST2025192-9340.24436.12238.183157.9937167968700.063.553.61FF8.244148.24499441.6064997688969.7710522601410.48896690074025162111122DRYL
2025-03-31 04:00:05FORECAST2025192-934140.04640.523157.0425545980800.053.483.53FF915799441.228445680469.291642270990.52024295254381163111122.5DRYL