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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, March 8, 2025

[ Friday, March 7, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, March 9, 2025 ]

DAY 159 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/10/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.43°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.70°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.56°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.820
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 123

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.19 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 140 in
SWE DAY: 67
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 413.34 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 58.04 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -125

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-10 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025160-12542.4299228.7000635.56499140.40982416667007.197.19TT10.42992123.4299267413.33554747979 58.036371543470.8202065504694216 4111123WETL
2025-03-09 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025159-12542.4299228.7000635.56499140.40982416667007.197.19TT10.42992123.4299267413.33554747979 58.036371543470.8202065504694216 4111123WETL
2025-03-08 11:00:01FORECAST2025159-12535.4224.85430.137141.938497677640.0082677210.0082677217.197.198267721TT3.42116.4267414.0507905230358.7697471690790.52406502390358163111122.5WETL
2025-03-08 07:00:03FORECAST2025159-12536.51824.99830.758141.573529078920.0015748040.0015748047.197.191574804TT4.518117.51867413.8802795632558.5944917939410.57706448421263163111122.5WETL
2025-03-08 03:00:03FORECAST2025159-12535.6924.56630.128141.57300423333007.197.19TT3.69116.6967413.8800342449758.5942398402550.53717415353795163111122.5WETL
2025-03-07 23:00:01FORECAST2025159-12536.89624.83630.866142.8711944007.197.19TT4.896111.89667414.485822922859.2180845828480.59504073193724163111122.5WETL
2025-03-07 19:00:01FORECAST2025159-12537.00425.26831.136142.8546632007.197.19TT5.004112.00467414.4781213377459.2101324274720.60014193834902163111122.5WETL
2025-03-07 15:00:01FORECAST2025159-12537.02225.28631.154142.8544664007.197.19TT5.022112.02267414.4780296502659.2100377602110.60099050608914163111122.5WETL
2025-03-07 11:00:02FORECAST2025159-12536.66224.65630.659142.862732007.197.19TT4.662111.66267414.4818804851459.2140138106040.58393367163688163111122.5WETL
2025-03-07 07:00:03FORECAST2025159-12536.5924.54830.569142.768867730970.0007874020.0007874027.197.190787402TT4.59112.5967414.4381455962159.1688647912920.58050214402485163111122.5WETL
2025-03-07 03:00:03FORECAST2025159-12536.89625.1631.028142.75010959260.0007874020.0007874027.197.190787402TT4.896113.89667414.4294042247359.1598428714770.59504073193724163111122.5WETL
2025-03-06 23:00:02FORECAST2025159-12537.20225.41231.307144.842921714080.0035433090.0035433097.197.193543309TT5.202110.20267415.402099132760.1680537245420.6094493260251163111122.5WETL
2025-03-06 19:00:02FORECAST2025159-12536.3225.59230.956144.874998092870.003937010.003937017.197.19393701TT4.32108.3267415.4169673613760.1835323542240.56758138662903163111122.5WETL
2025-03-06 15:00:02FORECAST2025159-12536.62625.77231.199144.879802126080.0074803190.0074803197.197.197480319TT4.626108.62667415.4191940503460.1858506333880.58221869023448163111122.5WETL
2025-03-06 11:00:01FORECAST2025159-12536.17626.2431.208144.865875629860.0015748040.0015748047.197.191574804TT4.176109.17667415.4127389878160.1791301812690.56065972840864163111122.5WETL
2025-03-06 07:00:03FORECAST2025159-12535.5126.07830.794144.88258268510.0102362260.0102362267.197.200236226TT3.51109.5167415.4204828383660.1871924539130.52843833489799163111122.5WETL
2025-03-06 03:00:03FORECAST2025159-12534.98826.27630.632144.882574137560.0082677210.0082677217.197.198267721TT2.988109.98867415.420478876660.1871883290990.50304204512974163111122.5WETL
2025-03-05 23:00:01FORECAST2025159-12534.73625.73630.236143.05480109090.0492126250.0492126257.27.249212625TT2.736104.73667414.5713401983959.3064206100680.49077098660698162111122WETL
2025-03-05 19:00:01FORECAST2025159-12535.4225.66430.542143.020332317690.0503937280.0503937287.27.250393728TT3.42105.4267414.555288946259.2898351891390.52406502390358163111122.5WETL
2025-03-05 15:00:01FORECAST2025159-12535.43825.50230.47143.048244981440.0598425520.0598425527.27.259842552TT3.438105.43867414.5682872891659.3032659216750.52493993500421163111122.5WETL
2025-03-05 11:00:01FORECAST2025159-12535.49225.3430.416142.940422520550.0066929170.0066929177.27.206692917TT3.492105.49267414.5180715310959.2513882870570.52756393000917163111122.5WETL
2025-03-05 07:00:04FORECAST2025159-12535.624.63830.119143.31005409776007.237.23TT3.6104.667414.6901614625959.4292694730140.53280821952652163111122.5WETL
2025-03-05 03:00:03FORECAST2025159-12536.37424.67430.524143.28738426177007.237.23TT4.374104.37467414.679611682959.4183568647290.57017178905558163111122.5WETL
2025-03-04 23:00:02FORECAST2025159-12535.92424.20630.065142.07230282423007.237.23TT3.924103.92467414.1132638310658.8340250225350.54850334610598163111122.5WETL
2025-03-04 19:00:02FORECAST2025159-12536.87824.74630.812142.17207337605007.267.26TT4.878102.87867414.1598326505158.8819621170010.5941889334855163111122.5WETL
2025-03-04 15:00:02FORECAST2025159-12537.68824.4431.064142.18106341681007.277.27TT5.688103.68867414.1640282548658.8862819662680.63202055038765163111122.5WETL
2025-03-04 11:00:02FORECAST2025159-12537.83224.4431.136143.48893145677007.277.27TT5.832104.83267414.7733836690659.5153896193810.63862564863941163111122.5WETL
2025-03-04 07:00:03FORECAST2025159-12538.31825.17831.748143.26122375845007.257.25TT6.318105.31867414.6674367089659.4057644357040.66060463744669163111122.5WETL
2025-03-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025159-12537.88624.92631.406143.43056903744007.297.29TT5.886104.88667414.746234867459.4872884731690.64109207396309163111122.5WETL
2025-03-03 23:00:02FORECAST2025159-12537.27425.37631.325143.58762853236007.017.01TT5.274100.27467414.8192860313759.5629175507310.6128186512862163111122.5WETL
2025-03-03 19:00:01FORECAST2025159-12535.79825.57430.686143.4042244371006.946.94TT3.79898.79867414.7339786709859.4746045590250.54240732352829163111122.5WETL
2025-03-03 15:00:03FORECAST2025159-12537.00425.66431.334143.26686079431006.926.92TT5.004100.00467414.6700602270559.4084777941160.60014193834902163111122.5WETL
2025-03-03 11:00:02FORECAST2025159-12535.18624.99830.092143.775149900110.1354331440.1354331446.866.995433144TT3.18698.18667414.9064673938659.6532395440750.51268215387515163112125WETL
2025-03-03 07:00:03FORECAST2025159-12534.08825.39429.741143.46166398150.1354331440.1354331446.877.005433144TT2.08899.08867414.7606999926159.5022601750730.45928475832421162112124WETL
2025-03-03 03:00:03FORECAST2025159-12534.82625.26830.047143.510136954640.1263780210.1263780216.897.016378021TT2.82697.82667414.7832469627559.5256005781160.49515310799641162112124WETL
2025-03-02 23:00:02FORECAST2025159-12533.51225.82629.669146.439518635750.0996063530.0996063536.977.069606353TT1.51296.51267416.1406944771860.9394429839830.43150377583577162112124WETL
2025-03-02 19:00:02FORECAST2025159-12532.68425.73629.21146.307070663930.0992126520.0992126526.947.039212652TT0.68498.68467416.0795371160460.8753782386520.3921885362036162112124WETL
2025-03-02 15:00:02FORECAST2025159-12532.97226.2429.606146.379432788820.082677210.082677216.997.07267721TT0.97298.97267416.1129526092860.9103779790260.40576071137523162111122WETL
2025-03-02 11:00:03FORECAST2025159-12530.21825.32227.77154.223419943321.4090558791.4190558797.118.529055879TT-1.78293.21867419.6989859820264.7274129648890.28276397737536162114128WETL
2025-03-02 07:00:03FORECAST2025159-12530.61425.1627.887154.065222045951.4358275471.4458275477.068.505827547TT-1.38691.61467419.6273663884564.6499833791940.29933738322722162114128WETL
2025-03-02 03:00:05FORECAST2025159-12530.68625.7928.238154.240158242271.4476385771.4576385777.078.527638577TT-1.31493.68667419.7065620868664.7356065515970.30239739359615162114128WETL
2025-03-01 23:00:02FORECAST2025159-12532.28825.41228.85154.407462877050.996063531.006063536.877.87606353TT0.28887.28867419.7822699731964.817515267330.37374197888989162114128WETL
2025-03-01 19:00:03FORECAST2025159-12532.59425.73629.165154.332524398750.996063531.006063536.867.86606353TT0.59483.59467419.7483631523364.7808244975410.38797314330884162114128WETL
2025-03-01 15:00:03FORECAST2025159-12533.0825.12429.102154.153727967810.9122052170.9222052176.957.872205217TT1.0888.0867419.6674384708864.6933001469850.41088057976236162113126WETL
2025-03-01 11:00:03FORECAST2025159-12533.76428.16630.965157.038494288971.2181108941.5581108947.088.638110894TT1.76488.76467420.9686301328866.1082798189570.443624594522171621151210WETL
2025-03-01 07:00:04FORECAST2025159-12533.81828.59831.208154.226110808281.2181108941.5581108947.098.648110894TT1.81890.81867419.7002039456164.7287301599720.446229188548731621151210WETL
2025-03-01 03:00:04FORECAST2025159-12533.56626.90630.236154.902082717591.2098431731.5498431737.128.669843173TT1.56688.56667420.0059048942465.0597894218040.434096072008271621151210WETL
2025-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2025159-12534.55630.52432.54170.045928519992.0287412533.3987412537.110.498741253TT2.55684.55667426.7187334141472.5617832402820.482010613107361621151210WETL
2025-02-28 19:00:02FORECAST2025159-12534.55630.41632.486170.864290890792.0287412533.3987412537.1610.558741253TT2.55674.55667427.0741881550472.9717283168690.482010613107361621151210WETL
2025-02-28 15:00:02FORECAST2025159-12533.36829.331.334169.547343670142.04724523.40724527.0510.4572452TT1.36877.36867426.5018111866972.3122491572040.424605686441831621151210WETL
2025-02-28 11:00:03FORECAST2025159-12533.90827.7730.839164.391487763832.1240168954.1140168956.6510.764016895TT1.90879.90867424.242440173269.741845912630.450575283567081621151210WETL
2025-02-28 07:00:04FORECAST2025159-12533.3528.52630.938162.878685960482.1035444434.1535444436.6510.803544443TT1.3585.3567423.5738744554268.9911560784870.423745001200081621151210WETL
2025-02-28 03:00:04FORECAST2025159-12534.01628.72431.37171.82931659571.8862214913.8662214916.5710.436221491TT2.01684.01667427.4923976960173.4557265459620.45579838515341621151210WETL
2025-02-27 23:00:03FORECAST2025159-12536.51829.67833.098167.355708257460.5763782642.5963782646.689.276378264TT4.51878.51867425.5450189998771.2173880501570.577064484212631631151212.5WETL
2025-02-27 19:00:03FORECAST2025159-12536.51829.67833.098166.022089436690.5763782642.4163782646.699.106378264TT4.51883.51867424.9601951952570.5527795337370.577064484212631631151212.5WETL
2025-02-27 15:00:02FORECAST2025159-12537.36430.2933.827168.318201964230.5704727492.8504727496.699.540472749TT5.36484.36467425.9658664449771.6978087381510.61701836083271631151212.5WETL
2025-02-27 11:00:03FORECAST2025159-12542.06229.28235.672163.037142707140.3059056771.9259056776.718.635905677TT10.06288.06267423.6440231405569.0697110577950.808182603383271641151215WETL
2025-02-27 07:00:04FORECAST2025159-12541.0933.56637.328158.128564467880.3059056771.9259056776.778.695905677TT9.0992.0967421.4578362980766.6445226375520.774132608871961641151215WETL
2025-02-27 03:00:04FORECAST2025159-12547.53432.93640.235157.455711729050.3555120031.9455120036.748.685512003TT15.534106.53467421.1560307052766.3134225636790.938242341940821651151217.5WETL
2025-02-26 23:00:03FORECAST2025159-12535.00632.2733.638153.171512601540.1251969180.1251969186.86.925196918TT3.00683.00667419.2222239229764.2129021544630.50391857669292163112125WETL
2025-02-26 19:00:02FORECAST2025159-12535.00632.2733.638153.284726754720.1251969180.1251969186.86.925196918TT3.00685.00667419.2735978228864.2682388777490.50391857669292163112125WETL
2025-02-26 15:00:03FORECAST2025159-12533.06231.65832.36153.634964226780.1251969180.1251969186.816.935196918TT1.06282.06267419.4324337771564.4394869589040.41002618823361162112124WETL
2025-02-26 11:00:03FORECAST2025159-12535.02433.15234.088155.7855214531800.636.757.38TT3.02498.02467420.4046400366865.4929560694510.50479508933869163113127.5WETL
2025-02-26 07:00:04FORECAST2025159-12535.02433.15234.088155.1650866975600.636.757.38TT3.02499.02467420.1247038209565.1886860921640.50479508933869163113127.5WETL
2025-02-26 03:00:04FORECAST2025159-12536.0535.6935.87154.8931594739400.636.787.41TT4.0597.0567420.0018728719765.0554170741130.55458795267853163113127.5WETL