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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 6, 2025

[ Wednesday, March 5, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, March 7, 2025 ]

DAY 157 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/07/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.97°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.32°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.15°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.514
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 110

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.39 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.81 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.20 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 143 in
SWE DAY: 65
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 413.10 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 59.03 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -127

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-07 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025157-12734.9721.3200628.14503142.9048979166700.397.818.2TT2.97109.9765413.10238536504 59.0343542097220.5135874370090216 3112125WETL
2025-03-07 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025157-12734.9721.3200628.14503142.9048979166700.397.818.2TT2.97109.9765413.10238536504 59.0343542097220.5135874370090216 3112125WETL
2025-03-06 11:00:01FORECAST2025157-12731.22618.03224.62914500.397.818.2TT-0.774106.22665414.0831848224460.0420617992540.33189297938137162112124WETL
2025-03-06 07:00:03FORECAST2025157-12732.48618.42825.457144.9811746666700.397.818.2TT0.486107.48665414.0743951637460.0329922102280.39091478151924162112124WETL
2025-03-06 03:00:02FORECAST2025157-12732.93619.9426.438144.9756642666700.397.818.2TT0.936107.93665414.071822246160.0303374842370.41270401139872162112124WETL
2025-03-05 23:00:01FORECAST2025157-12733.49421.0227.257142.978647200.47.818.21TT1.494103.49465413.1369989997459.069769225250.44009349135097162112124WETL
2025-03-05 19:00:01FORECAST2025157-12732.88220.6626.771142.988093600.47.818.21TT0.882102.88265413.1414321233959.0743057664980.41007361957934162112124WETL
2025-03-05 15:00:01FORECAST2025157-12732.9920.80426.897142.987109600.47.818.21TT0.99102.9965413.1409703446459.0738332069190.41533832841899162112124WETL
2025-03-05 11:00:01FORECAST2025157-12732.52220.67826.6143.0446760167900.47.818.21TT0.522102.52265413.1679835945559.1014803537940.39264635249131162112124WETL
2025-03-05 07:00:03FORECAST2025157-12732.25220.1226.186143.4306924977600.437.818.24TT0.252102.25265413.3490212193559.2869363567630.3797136458205162112124WETL
2025-03-05 03:00:03FORECAST2025157-12732.3620.49826.429143.4246522617700.437.818.24TT0.36102.3665413.3461897797159.2840335328810.38487150063099162112124WETL
2025-03-04 23:00:01FORECAST2025157-12732.0919.90425.997142.2055364242300.437.818.24TT0.090000000000003101.0965412.7738231737358.6987229462990.37201707715794162112124WETL
2025-03-04 19:00:02FORECAST2025157-12730.8319.25625.043142.3220349760500.467.818.27TT-1.1799.8365412.8285950756858.7546057474730.31409575085736162112124WETL
2025-03-04 15:00:01FORECAST2025157-12731.96419.05825.511142.3638906168100.477.818.28TT-0.03600000000000199.96465412.8482695867258.7746858927850.36606582178786162112124WETL
2025-03-04 11:00:01FORECAST2025157-12731.62219.05825.34143.6933082567700.477.818.28TT-0.37899.62265413.4720837989459.4131715928890.35007760122516162112124WETL
2025-03-04 07:00:03FORECAST2025157-12731.58619.6725.628143.4782941584500.457.818.26TT-0.414100.58665413.3713336004559.3098137989940.34840940309999162112124WETL
2025-03-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025157-12732.03620.1226.078143.6432114374400.497.818.3TT0.036000000000001100.03665413.4486146057259.3890867663270.36946270026484162112124WETL
2025-03-03 23:00:01FORECAST2025157-12732.30620.58826.447143.7509725323600.467.568.02TT0.30697.30665413.4990944723659.4408969716520.38228996332041162112124WETL
2025-03-03 19:00:01FORECAST2025157-12732.70220.6626.681143.505379637100.397.567.95TT0.70297.70265413.3840282037959.3228319032990.40133545685219162112124WETL
2025-03-03 15:00:02FORECAST2025157-12732.7220.76826.744143.4058015943100.377.567.93TT0.7297.7265413.3373530033959.2749744363210.40220713394331162112124WETL
2025-03-03 11:00:01FORECAST2025157-12732.86420.326.582143.2840450394700.317.567.87TT0.86497.86465413.2802660278359.2164682514580.40919771431611162112124WETL
2025-03-03 07:00:03FORECAST2025157-12733.90820.85827.383142.9350505877400.327.567.88TT1.908100.90865413.1165380629659.0488332666620.46060932980106162112124WETL
2025-03-03 03:00:03FORECAST2025157-12732.14420.53426.339143.0415596564400.347.567.9TT0.14499.14465413.1665213322759.0999836091950.37457709695856162112124WETL
2025-03-02 23:00:02FORECAST2025157-12733.18820.67826.933145.978124189910.0015748040.4115748047.577.981574804TT1.18898.18865414.5392990052460.5136692717830.4250292144515162112124WETL
2025-03-02 19:00:02FORECAST2025157-12733.96221.50627.734145.825371256880.0015748040.3915748047.567.951574804TT1.96299.96265414.4681426344760.439970773820.46329424993378162112124WETL
2025-03-02 15:00:02FORECAST2025157-12733.8921.32627.608145.98403221430.0015748040.4215748047.588.001574804TT1.89100.8965414.5420505653160.5165200639090.459714749221162112124WETL
2025-03-02 11:00:02FORECAST2025157-12733.09820.40826.753146.802067823380.0023622060.5223622067.68.122362206TT1.09898.09865414.9226380968960.9115012593560.42061827886427162113126WETL
2025-03-02 07:00:03FORECAST2025157-12732.39619.9426.168146.544863874920.0023622060.4823622067.598.072362206TT0.39696.39665414.8030602912760.7872580052830.3865953723155162112124WETL
2025-03-02 03:00:05FORECAST2025157-12732.55820.35426.456146.583546376240.0027559070.4627559077.628.082755907TT0.55897.55865414.8210493324560.8059405226640.39438005038607162112124WETL
2025-03-01 23:00:02FORECAST2025157-12733.04421.25427.149148.7878223921800.277.617.88TT1.04490.04465415.8432187814461.8724069790440.41797645597015162112124WETL
2025-03-01 19:00:02FORECAST2025157-12732.41420.9326.672148.8132808748100.257.627.87TT0.41486.41465415.854991019961.8847455818370.38745815019973162112124WETL
2025-03-01 15:00:03FORECAST2025157-12732.61220.15626.384149.1439911971400.327.647.96TT0.61288.61265416.007845387362.0450704303860.39698451380988162112124WETL
2025-03-01 11:00:03FORECAST2025157-12731.9120.35426.132148.9171724286200.387.718.09TT-0.0988.9165415.9030235467761.9351022710970.36352501453541162112124WETL
2025-03-01 07:00:03FORECAST2025157-12731.62221.1126.366148.6107995985100.357.758.1TT-0.37891.62265415.7613407470561.7866252905690.35007760122516162112124WETL
2025-03-01 03:00:04FORECAST2025157-12731.29821.1126.204148.7697228890600.327.818.13TT-0.70290.29865415.8348489403761.8636352444740.3351715125261162112124WETL
2025-02-28 23:00:02FORECAST2025157-12730.222.06426.132152.405059053360.0484252230.5784252237.588.158425223TT-1.885.265417.5082559272963.6303703998650.2866642491457162113126WETL
2025-02-28 19:00:02FORECAST2025157-12727.08619.423.243152.953530009350.0484252230.5784252237.648.218425223TT-4.91476.08665417.7593876249563.8977730317820.17025636824546161113124.5WETL
2025-02-28 15:00:02FORECAST2025157-12727.39220.13823.765152.45715099440.055118140.505118147.618.11511814TT-4.60879.39265417.5321226167963.65575786280.18014350096493161113124.5WETL
2025-02-28 11:00:02FORECAST2025157-12728.20218.42823.315151.74700258170.3905513920.5405513927.518.050551392TT-3.79880.20265417.2064855937763.3098336464990.2080059542114161113124.5WETL
2025-02-28 07:00:04FORECAST2025157-12730.79418.98624.89151.925802111920.4275592860.5875592867.58.087559286TT-1.20685.79465417.2885290676563.3968944907050.31249824222243162113126WETL
2025-02-28 03:00:03FORECAST2025157-12730.14619.09424.62151.614849561140.4279529870.5379529877.478.007952987TT-1.85483.14665417.1458222608963.2455010871410.28436674569045162113126WETL
2025-02-27 23:00:02FORECAST2025157-12729.96620.28225.124153.909301243410.2098426330.4198426337.487.899842633TT-2.03472.96665418.1961771894964.36428141390.27677253980254162112124WETL
2025-02-27 19:00:02FORECAST2025157-12733.22420.82227.023153.064246959760.0992126520.3092126527.497.799212652TT1.22478.22465417.8100398352763.9517791196140.42679625228347162112124WETL
2025-02-27 15:00:02FORECAST2025157-12732.73820.62426.681153.876087222580.2043308190.4143308197.497.904330819TT0.73877.73865418.1810160862364.348058506110.40307929752854162112124WETL
2025-02-27 11:00:03FORECAST2025157-12733.65622.3728.013152.043692547960.0102362260.0802362267.657.730236226TT1.65677.65665417.3426035784263.4543105056430.4481053889176162111122WETL
2025-02-27 07:00:04FORECAST2025157-12736.82425.50231.163152.542026067120.0102362260.0802362267.717.790236226TT4.82479.82465417.5710026169663.6971267660690.60495320136623163111122.5WETL
2025-02-27 03:00:03FORECAST2025157-12737.09425.03431.064151.843402572350.0094488240.0494488247.717.759448824TT5.09487.09465417.2507240643963.3567696677160.61790901382332163111122.5WETL
2025-02-26 23:00:03FORECAST2025157-12739.18223.82831.505152.6594756743400.067.757.81TT7.18275.18265417.6247907010563.7543815770270.7127457812652164111123WETL
2025-02-26 19:00:02FORECAST2025157-12739.18224.40431.793152.7726898275200.067.757.81TT7.18277.18265417.6766238991263.8095813111450.7127457812652164111123WETL
2025-02-26 15:00:03FORECAST2025157-12739.18224.90832.045153.0183117461800.077.757.82TT7.18275.18265417.7890265336463.9293715062570.7127457812652164111123WETL
2025-02-26 11:00:03FORECAST2025157-12736.0526.74431.397152.674805129070.0051181130.1951181137.577.765118113TT4.0581.0565417.6318099068863.7618551932350.56721293174255163112125WETL
2025-02-26 07:00:04FORECAST2025157-12736.0526.74431.397152.054370373450.0051181130.1951181137.577.765118113TT4.0582.0565417.3475005313563.4595114202280.56721293174255163112125WETL
2025-02-26 03:00:04FORECAST2025157-12737.09425.73631.415152.32840728530.0051181130.2051181137.597.795118113TT5.09483.09465417.4731310489163.5930171370870.61790901382332163112125WETL
2025-02-25 23:00:03FORECAST2025157-12737.18425.55631.37140.7955401514100.228.789TT5.18472.18465412.1096253707258.0231973056650.62219924037618163112125WETL
2025-02-25 19:00:03FORECAST2025157-12737.18425.55631.37140.9265376529300.228.89.02TT5.18472.18465412.1714337974858.0858930845220.62219924037618163112125WETL
2025-02-25 15:00:03FORECAST2025157-12737.6725.21431.442139.7463909331700.178.798.96TT5.6777.6765411.6138636627357.5215519049230.64509475893655163112125WETL
2025-02-25 11:00:03FORECAST2025157-12740.40625.35832.882148.803890728640.0303149770.0503149778.588.630314977TT8.40684.40665415.8506490178461.8801945358840.76260076078982164111123WETL
2025-02-25 07:00:04FORECAST2025157-12740.40625.35832.882148.759511257630.0303149770.0503149778.568.610314977TT8.40677.40665415.8301265562861.858686392710.76260076078982164111123WETL
2025-02-25 03:00:04FORECAST2025157-12746.59826.70836.653148.134196663950.0346456880.0446456888.398.434645688TT14.59886.59865415.5407153710861.5557900526550.93200144732455165111123.5WETL
2025-02-24 23:00:02FORECAST2025157-12729.89427.3228.607152.832299971730.0224409570.2524409579.379.622440957TT-2.10655.89465417.7039094126863.8386491827210.2737628901223162112124WETL
2025-02-24 19:00:03FORECAST2025157-12729.89427.3228.607152.473033911820.0224409570.2524409579.379.622440957TT-2.10659.89465417.53939898163.663498940350.2737628901223162112124WETL
2025-02-24 15:00:04FORECAST2025157-12726.43823.73825.088152.943742230660.0224409570.3324409579.339.662440957TT-5.56253.43865417.7549091011163.8929991331510.15048792625528161112123WETL
2025-02-24 11:00:05FORECAST2025157-12733.9829.9331.955156.3087006175900.39.129.42TT1.9870.9865419.2880469732665.5383698068780.46418960109733162112124WETL
2025-02-24 07:00:06FORECAST2025157-12733.9829.9331.955156.5512762930900.39.099.39TT1.9869.9865419.3980634413965.6573021066010.46418960109733162112124WETL
2025-02-24 03:00:03FORECAST2025157-12726.45625.41225.934156.2764042885200.38.939.23TT-5.54457.45665419.2733943558365.5225384837720.15101557567499161112123WETL