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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 5, 2025

[ Tuesday, March 4, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, March 6, 2025 ]

DAY 156 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/06/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.16°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.34°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.25°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.586
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 107

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.67 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.64 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.31 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 145 in
SWE DAY: 64
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 413.38 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 59.93 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -128

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-06 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025156-12835.1600823.3400229.25005144.9865866666700.678.649.31TT3.16008107.1600864413.37706552001 59.9341297360290.5857171892537516 3113127.5WETL
2025-03-06 03:00:02OBSERVATION2025156-12835.1600823.3400229.25005144.9865866666700.678.649.31TT3.16008107.1600864413.37706552001 59.9341297360290.5857171892537516 3113127.5WETL
2025-03-05 11:00:01FORECAST2025156-12830.16419.09424.629143.049989616790.0145669370.6845669378.649.324566937TT-1.836102.16464412.4671691952659.003424270650.29772315491333162113126WETL
2025-03-05 07:00:03FORECAST2025156-12830.03819.11224.575143.432070097760.043307110.713307118.649.35330711TT-1.962102.03864412.6470415730359.1868193925370.29122370262503162113126WETL
2025-03-05 03:00:03FORECAST2025156-12830.45219.36424.908143.427309061770.0417323060.7117323068.649.351732306TT-1.548102.45264412.6448012896459.1845334473010.31282159971717162113126WETL
2025-03-04 23:00:01FORECAST2025156-12830.43419.50824.971142.206028424230.0547244390.7147244398.649.354724439TT-1.566101.43464412.0692376252858.598729718490.31186833542819162113126WETL
2025-03-04 19:00:02FORECAST2025156-12829.91217.99623.954142.322034976050.082677210.742677218.649.38267721TT-2.088100.91264412.1239858272758.6543243253780.28479120244292162113126WETL
2025-03-04 15:00:01FORECAST2025156-12828.88618.78823.837142.363890616810.0940945390.7540945398.649.394094539TT-3.11499.88664412.1437352436958.6743856426370.23508684518328161113124.5WETL
2025-03-04 11:00:01FORECAST2025156-12829.19219.45424.323143.693308256770.0909449310.7509449318.649.390944931TT-2.808100.19264412.7699244595659.3122759944910.24939190669309162113126WETL
2025-03-04 07:00:03FORECAST2025156-12829.8420.24625.043143.478294158450.0649606650.7349606658.649.374960665TT-2.16100.8464412.6687906819859.2090141394790.28114615380699162113126WETL
2025-03-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025156-12829.60619.424.503143.643408237440.0818898080.7718898088.649.411889808TT-2.39499.60664412.7464584668459.2883080321110.26945764126121162113126WETL
2025-03-03 23:00:01FORECAST2025156-12829.73219.45424.593143.754022932360.0783464990.4883464998.649.128346499TT-2.26896.73264412.7984721439659.3414410310260.2757211501374162112124WETL
2025-03-03 19:00:01FORECAST2025156-12830.45219.38224.917143.51413723710.0299212760.4199212768.649.059921276TT-1.54897.45264412.6856536266459.2262255303560.31282159971717162112124WETL
2025-03-03 15:00:02FORECAST2025156-12829.7520.0324.89143.414755994310.0173228440.3973228448.649.037322844TT-2.2596.7564412.6388943721159.1785063501380.27662173760344162112124WETL
2025-03-03 11:00:01FORECAST2025156-12829.55220.2124.881143.293885039470.0224409570.3424409578.648.982440957TT-2.44896.55264412.5820082158959.1204788546430.26679525697297162112124WETL
2025-03-03 07:00:03FORECAST2025156-12830.34420.53425.439142.957682587740.0346456880.3546456888.648.994645688TT-1.65699.34464412.4236875437158.959134615540.3071209812722162112124WETL
2025-03-03 03:00:03FORECAST2025156-12830.43420.60625.52143.042346856440.0212598540.3712598548.649.011259854TT-1.56699.43464412.4635694248558.9997569633160.31186833542819162112124WETL
2025-03-02 23:00:01FORECAST2025156-12830.23621.84826.042145.987788322810.1090551770.4690551778.629.089055177TT-1.76497.23664413.8457208156960.416421488740.30146656272832162112124WETL
2025-03-02 19:00:02FORECAST2025156-12831.15422.06426.609145.855034439090.1145669910.4445669918.629.064566991TT-0.84698.15464413.7836481932460.3524282575580.35092137622582162112124WETL
2025-03-02 15:00:02FORECAST2025156-12830.77621.81226.294146.011278373220.1267717220.4867717228.629.106771722TT-1.22498.77664413.8567020366160.4277461276880.3301892951959162112124WETL
2025-03-02 11:00:02FORECAST2025156-12829.33621.225.268146.799807223620.2192914570.6092914578.629.229291457TT-2.66497.33664414.2249467050760.8081423235180.25628017173185162113126WETL
2025-03-02 07:00:03FORECAST2025156-12829.01221.70425.358146.532418200360.200787510.570787518.619.18078751TT-2.98896.01264414.1001580931860.6790975425430.24092172418727161113124.5WETL
2025-03-02 03:00:05FORECAST2025156-12829.67821.6525.664146.573058895640.1913386860.5413386868.659.191338686TT-2.32296.67864414.1191302874960.6987076734380.2730280553706162113126WETL
2025-03-01 23:00:02FORECAST2025156-12830.5621.86626.213148.800614392180.0870079210.3370079218.658.987007921TT-1.4488.5664415.1560246515361.7754715367610.31856729836115162112124WETL
2025-03-01 19:00:02FORECAST2025156-12829.4821.12825.304148.817020074810.0712598810.3212598818.668.981259881TT-2.5286.4864415.1636395136261.7834156758310.26326618305191162112124WETL
2025-03-01 15:00:03FORECAST2025156-12829.98420.96625.475149.150977597140.0653543660.3853543668.689.065354366TT-2.01687.98464415.3185802926661.9451722649080.28845862577729162112124WETL
2025-03-01 11:00:03FORECAST2025156-12828.61621.00224.809148.917172428620.1444882670.4744882678.739.204488267TT-3.38488.61664415.2101193520761.8319169376590.22285004975945161112123WETL
2025-03-01 07:00:03FORECAST2025156-12829.42621.54225.484148.610799598510.1429134630.4529134638.769.212913463TT-2.57492.42664415.0678971334761.6835720806780.26063509170397162112124WETL
2025-03-01 03:00:03FORECAST2025156-12828.50821.34424.926148.769722889060.137795350.427795358.819.23779535TT-3.49290.50864415.1416851893261.7605134653140.21805865361436161112123WETL
2025-02-28 23:00:02FORECAST2025156-12828.77823.95426.366152.133391044940.3165356040.5965356048.629.216535604TT-3.22286.77864416.696469256463.3934469044320.23014819190799161113124.5WETL
2025-02-28 19:00:02FORECAST2025156-12827.10421.59624.35152.654645941230.3129922950.6329922958.659.282992295TT-4.89681.10464416.9362217049363.6472513044410.16134837527289161113124.5WETL
2025-02-28 15:00:02FORECAST2025156-12827.69821.03824.368152.110937864620.2929135440.5429135448.639.172913544TT-4.30283.69864416.6861347290163.3825187488130.18405890826039161113124.5WETL
2025-02-28 11:00:02FORECAST2025156-12827.84219.88623.864149.258269923310.0681102730.1781102738.598.768110273TT-4.15883.84264415.3683310597561.9971584749130.18985000246218161112123WETL
2025-02-28 07:00:03FORECAST2025156-12828.27420.46224.368149.260434290950.0696850770.1996850778.578.769685077TT-3.72687.27464415.3693345237161.9982072621540.20788314195917161112123WETL
2025-02-28 03:00:03FORECAST2025156-12827.89620.55224.224148.87521640140.0527559340.1227559348.578.692755934TT-4.10484.89664415.1906493629761.811597771750.19205017115768161112123WETL
2025-02-27 23:00:02FORECAST2025156-12828.1321.4724.8152.504789922180.1204725060.2304725068.578.800472506TT-3.8775.1364416.8673275750563.5742642172530.20176285365403161112123WETL
2025-02-27 19:00:02FORECAST2025156-12829.7522.2826.015152.506262054110.1204725060.2404725068.578.810472506TT-2.2576.7564416.8680044938963.5749811353210.27662173760344162112124WETL
2025-02-27 15:00:02FORECAST2025156-12829.8422.85626.348152.644853029140.1192914030.2392914038.578.809291403TT-2.1676.8464416.9317203565263.6424811770070.28114615380699162112124WETL
2025-02-27 11:00:03FORECAST2025156-12831.56822.06426.816151.986462514440.0334645850.2134645858.628.833464585TT-0.43275.56864416.6288317561163.3219423201360.37414605593268162112124WETL
2025-02-27 07:00:04FORECAST2025156-12831.5524.15227.851152.66639892090.0334645850.2134645858.688.893464585TT-0.4574.5564416.9416238578663.652976274610.37312601618038162112124WETL
2025-02-27 03:00:03FORECAST2025156-12832.0924.36828.229151.961213433670.007874020.187874028.678.85787402TT0.09000000000000382.0964416.6172059801863.3096561580910.40408323696299162112124WETL
2025-02-26 23:00:03FORECAST2025156-12833.15223.9928.571152.918366074340.0114173290.1914173298.738.921417329TT1.15268.15264417.0573995458863.7757360977670.46656812203941162112124WETL
2025-02-26 19:00:02FORECAST2025156-12835.43823.48629.462153.031580227520.0114173290.1914173298.738.921417329TT3.43870.43864417.1093958817363.8309099795260.60184401287114163112125WETL
2025-02-26 15:00:03FORECAST2025156-12835.34823.7229.534153.285762946180.011811030.161811038.778.93181103TT3.34868.34864417.2260809823763.9548181444270.59663918447024163112125WETL
2025-02-26 11:00:03FORECAST2025156-12837.77824.83631.307152.7887043173600.318.568.87TT5.77876.77864416.9978308791763.712558283180.7284856841326164112126WETL
2025-02-26 07:00:04FORECAST2025156-12838.1225.50231.811152.1682695617400.318.568.87TT6.1278.1264416.7125216257363.4104233204970.74518548880161164112126WETL
2025-02-26 03:00:03FORECAST2025156-12836.82425.2531.037152.469466576580.0007874020.3407874028.568.900787402TT4.82477.82464416.8510843600663.5570624742480.679211407427163112125WETL
2025-02-25 23:00:02FORECAST2025156-12835.63626.20430.92140.969708151410.1633859150.3633859159.7510.113385915TT3.63666.63664411.4847647083758.006887189690.6132298538955163112125WETL
2025-02-25 19:00:03FORECAST2025156-12835.63626.5131.073141.100705652930.1633859150.3633859159.7710.133385915TT3.63666.63664411.5467810127258.0695412100860.6132298538955163112125WETL
2025-02-25 15:00:02FORECAST2025156-12835.88825.75430.821139.947422133170.1468504730.2668504739.810.066850473TT3.88871.88864411.0000887151757.5184029121910.62758001589215163112125WETL
2025-02-25 11:00:03FORECAST2025156-12836.17626.79831.487148.949331827370.0192913490.0592913499.659.709291349TT4.17676.17664415.2250417422761.8474925255040.64376496845955163111122.5WETL
2025-02-25 07:00:04FORECAST2025156-12836.17626.79831.487148.904952356360.0192913490.0592913499.639.689291349TT4.17669.17664415.2044487558761.8259986601430.64376496845955163111122.5WETL
2025-02-25 03:00:03FORECAST2025156-12837.34626.90632.126148.498079863950.0137795350.0737795359.449.513779535TT5.34672.34664415.0155433224561.6290112970760.70664127713679164111123WETL
2025-02-24 23:00:02FORECAST2025156-12836.9525.5231.235152.619674081420.0803150040.23031500410.4810.710315004TT4.9557.9564416.9201462456563.6302168379910.68593028268002163112125WETL
2025-02-24 19:00:03FORECAST2025156-12836.9525.5231.235152.260408021520.0803150040.23031500410.4810.710315004TT4.9561.9564416.754920275663.4552742061370.68593028268002163112125WETL
2025-02-24 15:00:03FORECAST2025156-12834.93426.07830.506152.71265276630.1173228980.30732289810.4410.747322898TT2.93458.93464416.9628824617763.6755078858190.57248969314212163112125WETL
2025-02-24 11:00:05FORECAST2025156-12845.7725.17835.474156.337236617590.1633859150.30338591510.2310.533385915TT13.7768.7764418.6210252076365.4460542709840.96454265725242165112127WETL
2025-02-24 07:00:06FORECAST2025156-12845.7725.17835.474156.579812293090.1633859150.30338591510.210.503385915TT13.7767.7764418.7314525294465.5648922382750.96454265725242165112127WETL
2025-02-24 03:00:03FORECAST2025156-12839.54226.38432.963156.276404288520.1633859150.30338591510.0410.343385915TT7.54262.54264418.5933219351465.416259211210.80845920422968164112126WETL
2025-02-23 23:00:03FORECAST2025156-12830.61427.17628.895160.780779681450010.7310.73TT-1.38661.61464420.6330990785667.6297176296750.32145669392566162111122WETL
2025-02-23 19:00:03FORECAST2025156-12830.59627.17628.886160.945761641050010.6310.63TT-1.40458.59664420.7073679514867.7110677629510.32049235083136162111122WETL
2025-02-23 15:00:03FORECAST2025156-12829.24627.64428.445159.92359948440010.4610.46TT-2.75459.24664420.2467264389267.2073691636450.25196343621223162111122WETL
2025-02-23 11:00:04FORECAST2025156-12827.3226.83427.077164.053575062790.1039370640.10393706410.2410.343937064TT-4.6844.3264422.1005931301669.2471113391260.16938656788715161112123WETL
2025-02-23 07:00:04FORECAST2025156-12831.49629.60630.551162.970755790770.1039370640.10393706410.0410.143937064TT-0.50449.49664421.6164157802968.7111459335070.37007125242435162112124WETL
2025-02-23 03:00:04FORECAST2025156-12827.53627.12227.329164.408234884140010.310.3TT-4.46442.53664422.2588882455369.4228384805860.17767664241837161111121.5WETL