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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 30, 2025

[ Saturday, March 29, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, March 31, 2025 ]

DAY 181 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/31/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.56°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.66°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.11°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.405
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 56

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.08 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.82 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.65 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.47 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 159 in
SWE DAY: 88
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 435.43 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 69.31 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -104

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-31 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025181-10435.5600428.6599232.10998159.186033333330.0800000000000410.820000000000049.6510.47TT3.5600455.5600488435.42775822269 69.3140176346960.4054806184728116 2113126WETL
2025-03-31 00:00:02FORECAST2025181-10333.22421.57827.401162.592141628890.1740158420.9140158429.6510.564015842TT1.22453.22489437.4382410358271.1240204403890.31580089831008162113126WETL
2025-03-30 12:00:02FORECAST2025181-10333.6220.78627.203162.335425733220.1169291970.8569291979.6510.506929197TT1.6253.6289437.3335764820370.9947323256440.33042508394974162113126WETL
2025-03-30 08:00:01FORECAST2025181-10334.28621.45227.869162.422585880350.1452756690.8852756699.6510.535275669TT2.28654.28689437.3691198299471.0386234269920.3556041304392162113126WETL
2025-03-30 04:00:03FORECAST2025181-10334.17822.15428.166161.958984172380.1011811570.8411811579.6510.491181157TT2.17854.17889437.1799756173970.8052247514950.35147443925945162113126WETL
2025-03-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025181-10434.75422.58628.67160.363980430690.0952756420.7252756429.6510.375275642TT2.75449.75488435.9131463356969.9047672684550.37369030163491162113126WETL
2025-03-29 20:00:01FORECAST2025181-10434.53822.31628.427160.22215695680.0803150040.7603150049.6510.410315004TT2.53850.53888435.8547830368669.8335934581050.36530546499398162113126WETL
2025-03-29 16:00:02FORECAST2025181-10434.37623.05428.715160.282296595370.0952756420.7752756429.6510.425275642TT2.37650.37688435.8795343119669.8637727984410.35905855323042162113126WETL
2025-03-29 12:00:01FORECAST2025181-10434.98823.37829.183160.652581939090.1401575560.8201575569.6510.470157556TT2.98850.98888436.0318469355570.0496420178650.38284168383925162113126WETL
2025-03-29 08:00:02FORECAST2025181-10435.36624.24229.804160.671864125180.1385827520.8185827529.6510.468582752TT3.36650.36688436.0397745179270.0593234045170.3977616837948162113126WETL
2025-03-29 04:00:03FORECAST2025181-10434.68224.20629.444160.581396603430.1625985130.8525985139.6510.502598513TT2.68250.68288436.0025767868870.0139027031320.37088848465744162113126WETL
2025-03-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025181-10434.28623.41428.85167.575708993590.0539370371.4939370379.6511.143937037TT2.28645.28688438.8533761226173.5411656479770.3556041304392162114128WETL
2025-03-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025181-10434.59223.70229.147156.89018978020.0976378481.7476378489.6511.397637848TT2.59246.59288434.4775427959868.1652641444980.367395828556251621151210WETL
2025-03-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025181-10434.57423.97229.273156.783694811030.0818898081.7318898089.6511.381889808TT2.57448.57488434.4333314960968.1120628610240.366698600630741621151210WETL
2025-03-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025181-10434.59223.4529.021162.627523419150.0622047581.8122047589.6511.462204758TT2.59248.59288436.8418012590271.0425002647140.367395828556251621151210WETL
2025-03-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025181-10435.18623.21629.201162.119920466920.0877953231.6877953239.6511.337795323TT3.18648.18688436.6340131484170.7870714847740.390636793803331621151210WETL
2025-03-28 04:00:03FORECAST2025181-10434.93423.61229.273161.821472022790.094488241.624488249.6511.27448824TT2.93449.93488436.5117176601970.6369687069670.38072380507451621151210WETL
2025-03-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025181-10435.2762329.138167.700295808960.0570866451.5270866459.8211.347086645TT3.27646.27688438.9036985453273.6042800776950.394194814232881621151210WETL
2025-03-27 20:00:01FORECAST2025181-10435.09621.97428.535165.204642454030.0771653961.4171653969.8911.307165396TT3.09644.09688437.8926262387272.3418947510250.38708790445415162114128WETL
2025-03-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025181-10435.20422.40628.805164.793798719930.0850394161.2850394169.8911.175039416TT3.20444.20488437.7255644974472.1344585703580.39134767639245162114128WETL
2025-03-27 12:00:01FORECAST2025181-10434.84422.42428.634166.038631629270.0716535821.2416535829.8911.131653582TT2.84442.84488438.2312163098272.7633114933140.37720196288139162114128WETL
2025-03-27 08:00:02FORECAST2025181-10435.02422.1928.607165.816527592450.0704724791.1704724799.9911.160472479TT3.02443.02488438.1411146702772.6510382301110.38425555535486162114128WETL
2025-03-27 04:00:03FORECAST2025181-10436.01422.22629.12165.513900686430.0547244391.14472443910.0611.204724439TT4.01446.01488438.018265224472.4981116491930.42367835092001162114128WETL
2025-03-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025181-10434.71821.75828.238167.521348538330.0732283861.08322838610.2711.353228386TT2.71834.71888438.8314141553673.5136302802880.37228854843867162114128WETL
2025-03-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025181-10434.64622.08228.364170.881585845610.0732283861.10322838610.211.303228386TT2.64634.64688440.1832876460975.2192182556980.36949012740799162114128WETL
2025-03-26 16:00:01FORECAST2025181-10434.44822.13628.292170.708072201320.0736220871.05362208710.2411.293622087TT2.44832.44888440.1137626826675.1309719768260.36183042518608162114128WETL
2025-03-26 12:00:03FORECAST2025181-10435.56421.72228.643169.253954156220.1086614761.08866147610.2211.308661476TT3.56434.56488439.5299079944974.3921748979890.40563854213364162114128WETL
2025-03-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025181-10435.88820.98428.436168.393787221250.1086614760.92866147610.2411.168661476TT3.88836.88888439.1835189524973.9557760415660.41860933159436162113126WETL
2025-03-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025181-10435.22221.59628.409168.073462824690.1188977020.81889770210.1911.008897702TT3.22236.22288439.0543308713773.7933817577280.39205892198378162113126WETL
2025-03-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025181-10435.3322.06428.697174.890894894050.0366141931.25661419310.0911.346614193TT3.3327.3388441.7812682091577.2635213445280.39633389221252162114128WETL
2025-03-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025181-10435.3322.69429.012176.751481146030.0358267911.11582679110.0111.125826791TT3.3322.3388442.5173273819878.2155930475460.39633389221252162114128WETL
2025-03-25 16:00:02FORECAST2025181-10436.9523.14430.047176.728671742530.0055118141.06551181410.1211.185511814TT4.9525.9588442.5083248885678.2039084925670.4616744879881162114128WETL
2025-03-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025181-10437.29223.14430.218174.511176403470.0216535550.90165355510.1911.091653555TT5.29226.29288441.630621402877.0694792767970.4756643663665162113126WETL
2025-03-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025181-10437.1323.39630.263174.611857704590.0212598540.94125985410.0310.971259854TT5.1328.1388441.6705791404677.1209203171770.46903277744735162113126WETL
2025-03-25 04:00:04FORECAST2025181-10435.67223.14429.408175.463678767520.0531496351.06314963510.2711.333149635TT3.67226.67288442.0082356863877.5563910790730.40995138825889162114128WETL
2025-03-25 00:00:03FORECAST2025181-10436.30223.59429.948181.215889114150.0535433360.62354333610.2210.843543336TT4.30224.30288444.2693517536880.5086655842090.43531089320851162113126WETL
2025-03-24 20:00:03FORECAST2025181-10435.83423.10829.471183.770792253270.0535433360.6935433369.9310.623543336TT3.83420.83488445.2631028359381.8263531693070.41644097294853162113126WETL
2025-03-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025181-10435.90623.84629.876183.865347511010.0488189240.7088189249.8410.548818924TT3.90620.90688445.2997572918281.8751946210270.41933267107778162113126WETL
2025-03-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025181-10434.12423.14428.634186.317257014160.2885828331.19858283310.0311.228582833TT2.12418.12488446.2471754829583.1435496863010.34941610971288162114128WETL
2025-03-24 08:00:03FORECAST2025181-10433.56623.50428.535186.256056445090.2885828331.19858283310.0211.218582833TT1.56619.56688446.2235993030883.1118478989260.32841492259421162114128WETL
2025-03-24 04:00:05FORECAST2025181-10433.36823.64828.508187.062974448110.4377955121.30779551210.3511.657795512TT1.36819.36888446.5341526063583.530006779210.32108706544673162114128WETL
2025-03-24 00:00:02FORECAST2025181-10432.14423.28827.716198.776475376150.6708665041.7908665049.7611.550866504TT0.14411.14488450.9712986101189.6424852335250.277404410615871621151210WETL
2025-03-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025181-10433.15222.83827.995190.404408072510.6708665041.7908665049.1410.930866504TT1.1529.15288447.8133947961885.2656443631090.313171776605541621151210WETL
2025-03-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025181-10433.29622.20827.752190.138963386460.6799216271.7299216279.311.029921627TT1.2969.29688447.7121678577585.1275274919780.318439365161681621151210WETL
2025-03-23 12:00:02FORECAST2025181-10432.73823.9928.364191.619084557330.4897640441.1697640449.2310.399764044TT0.73811.73888448.2757401392785.8981869547460.29824112419322162114128WETL
2025-03-23 08:00:03FORECAST2025181-10431.3723.9927.68191.829570348530.4755908081.1455908089.2210.365590808TT-0.6311.3788448.355712962386.0078837808670.25136719545015162114128WETL
2025-03-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025181-10431.38824.72828.058190.654086690820.5311026491.1811026498.8510.031102649TT-0.61210.38888447.9085470981585.395594968010.25195771705055162114128WETL
2025-03-23 00:00:03FORECAST2025181-10432.64823.30627.977194.651213762020.6342523111.3642523119.4110.774252311TT0.6486.64888449.4236614687287.4808611982560.29503867070446162114128WETL
2025-03-22 20:00:03FORECAST2025181-10432.64825.30428.976193.605078987530.6342523111.3642523119.2510.614252311TT0.6483.64888449.0286081340586.9342191454530.29503867070446162114128WETL
2025-03-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025181-10433.24225.41229.327192.965175944230.5161420111.2561420119.0610.316142011TT1.2421.24288448.7864427130786.6001548795140.31645964325503162114128WETL
2025-03-22 12:00:02FORECAST2025181-10432.64825.08828.868193.435869676120.3389765611.2189765619.3810.598976561TT0.648-1.35288448.9646107009686.8458599247410.29503867070446162114128WETL
2025-03-22 08:00:03FORECAST2025181-10435.25826.72630.992192.497410526810.3263781291.2263781299.4110.636378129TT3.2583.25888448.6091720040886.3561039493610.39348249316146162114128WETL
2025-03-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025181-10435.36627.44631.406194.311134790560.3917324951.2317324959.4410.671732495TT3.3666.36688449.295352111487.303089724890.3977616837948162114128WETL
2025-03-22 00:00:03FORECAST2025181-10437.11228.52632.819200.890486349870.4511813461.0511813469.7710.821181346TT5.1125.11288451.7581308104790.7539106110230.4682964304355162114128WETL
2025-03-21 20:00:03FORECAST2025181-10435.2426.54630.893188.35502574380.460630171.050630179.9410.99063017TT3.24-5.7688447.0300923668284.2003645560070.39277052832534162114128WETL
2025-03-21 16:00:02FORECAST2025181-10436.51827.2331.874187.511560253120.4192915651.0692915659.6810.749291565TT4.5180.51888446.7065218373583.7626368849690.44407275977519162114128WETL
2025-03-21 12:00:03FORECAST2025181-10442.9825.19634.088197.672036214410.5295278450.94952784510.511.449527845TT10.981.9888450.5585444542789.0628249160770.6998715811749164113129WETL
2025-03-21 08:00:02FORECAST2025181-10442.9823.9933.485197.632633815950.5295278450.94952784510.5511.499527845TT10.983.9888450.543797475289.0421573444660.6998715811749164113129WETL
2025-03-21 04:00:05FORECAST2025181-10436.10423.82829.966198.884819784360.6149609621.0549609621112.054960962TT4.104-2.89688451.0117270611389.6993860571840.42730687778529162114128WETL
2025-03-21 00:00:04FORECAST2025181-10433.5324.51229.021198.02257122980.0311023790.72110237910.1410.861102379TT1.533.5388450.6896728519889.2467278448640.32707756262547162113126WETL
2025-03-20 20:00:03FORECAST2025181-10433.5324.51229.021188.083975400460.0311023790.72110237910.1410.861102379TT1.534.5388446.9261875190884.0596540591620.32707756262547162113126WETL
2025-03-20 16:00:03FORECAST2025181-10432.39624.0828.238188.019606429170.0519685320.72196853210.0310.751968532TT0.3962.39688446.9015017074584.026244463640.2861570867162113126WETL
2025-03-20 12:00:03FORECAST2025181-10429.44426.63628.04189.8581913606701.249.3710.61TT-2.55610.44488447.6050215596384.9814798372640.19259881178912161114126WETL
2025-03-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025181-10429.44426.63628.04188.9373953014901.249.2210.46TT-2.55613.44488447.2530969749784.5028351829770.19259881178912161114126WETL
2025-03-20 04:00:04FORECAST2025181-10433.74630.30832.027191.919911093420.1480315761.3180315769.2610.578031576TT1.74616.74688448.3900242789286.0549735947880.33513443435207162114128WETL