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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, March 29, 2025

[ Friday, March 28, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, March 30, 2025 ]

DAY 180 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/30/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.60°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.54°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.383
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 53

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.13 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.19 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.61 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.80 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 162 in
SWE DAY: 87
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 435.84 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 70.47 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -105

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-30 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025180-10534.5999221.5400228.06997161.681107083330.131.199.6110.8TT2.5999252.5999287435.83950685247 70.4670139785610.3825179426152716 2114128WETL
2025-03-30 00:00:01FORECAST2025180-10429.98418.7724.377160.093158606350.0248031631.0848031639.6110.694803163TT-2.01647.98488435.8016792806169.7688673619840.21353939564072161114126WETL
2025-03-29 12:00:01FORECAST2025180-10431.04618.82424.935160.227602786770.0653543661.1253543669.6110.735354366TT-0.95449.04688435.8570244969369.8363261929180.24818167268611161114126WETL
2025-03-29 08:00:02FORECAST2025180-10430.41618.7724.593160.242997106330.0681102731.1281102739.6110.738110273TT-1.58448.41688435.8633605080869.8440512166530.22727995042834161114126WETL
2025-03-29 04:00:02FORECAST2025180-10431.33419.32825.331160.0401170160.0842520141.1442520149.6110.754252014TT-0.66649.33488435.7798390095169.7422564282970.25806698301006162114128WETL
2025-03-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025180-10530.7419.29225.016167.402252252310.1748032441.8948032449.6111.504803244TT-1.2643.7487438.1774941177373.3518994015810.23790362778201161115127.5WETL
2025-03-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025180-10530.39819.88625.142156.563270182350.1389764532.0989764539.6111.708976453TT-1.60245.39887433.7190807815467.9044776276430.22669767617002161115127.5WETL
2025-03-28 16:00:01FORECAST2025180-10531.58620.76826.177156.55641195460.1393701542.0993701549.6111.709370154TT-0.41446.58687433.7162207416867.9010553258280.266880952416941621151210WETL
2025-03-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025180-10531.5521.95626.753162.46789637250.2366143012.1966143019.6111.806614301TT-0.4546.5587436.1630523997570.8624935987980.265612576490911621151210WETL
2025-03-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025180-10531.06422.15426.609161.91338207830.2311024872.0511024879.6111.661102487TT-0.93646.06487435.9350908580370.5837249274330.24879354090737161115127.5WETL
2025-03-28 04:00:03FORECAST2025180-10531.5862327.293161.547181025250.2342520951.9842520959.6111.594252095TT-0.41447.58687435.7843690023570.3997363471960.266880952416941621151210WETL
2025-03-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025180-10531.49622.13626.816167.55260221120.1803150582.0903150589.6111.700315058TT-0.50444.49687438.2384787236973.4279974992340.263715754324471621151210WETL
2025-03-27 20:00:01FORECAST2025180-10529.80421.41625.61165.008781726730.1858268722.0258268729.6111.635826872TT-2.19641.80487437.2035170925372.1424197220770.20795988772996161115127.5WETL
2025-03-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025180-10530.09221.9226.006164.561419174650.1838583671.8938583679.6111.503858367TT-1.90842.09287437.020813753971.9167653202030.2169284791798161115127.5WETL
2025-03-27 12:00:01FORECAST2025180-10529.40821.81225.61165.853110014670.2657481751.8557481759.6111.465748175TT-2.59241.40887437.5477765014572.5686595127690.19599155576094161115127.5WETL
2025-03-27 08:00:02FORECAST2025180-10529.37221.7425.556165.634697091940.3224411191.8924411199.6111.502441119TT-2.62841.37287437.458793406872.4583547361420.19492460028773161115127.5WETL
2025-03-27 04:00:03FORECAST2025180-10529.9321.48825.709165.431745324480.3358269531.9458269539.6111.555826953TT-2.0742.9387437.3760650463272.3558858037660.21185646774181161115127.5WETL
2025-03-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025180-10529.71421.34425.529167.321506544240.2826773181.8126773189.8811.692677318TT-2.28632.71487438.1447326148973.3110367455450.20520265428918161115127.5WETL
2025-03-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025180-10529.85821.34425.601170.684594316340.1744095431.6944095439.9511.644409543TT-2.14232.85887439.5035888171675.0164917578330.20962465429317161115127.5WETL
2025-03-26 16:00:01FORECAST2025180-10529.44421.41625.43170.476389403440.161417411.681417419.9511.63141741TT-2.55631.44487439.419800229874.9107009755580.19706203896769161115127.5WETL
2025-03-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025180-10529.62420.31824.971168.876789769980.1838583671.6638583679.9511.613858367TT-2.37631.62487438.7745880057774.098843855060.20246721576229161115127.5WETL
2025-03-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025180-10530.25420.24625.25168.028234813360.1393701541.4793701549.9911.469370154TT-1.74634.25487438.431250426973.6688290962490.22206984716617161114126WETL
2025-03-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025180-10530.41620.0325.223167.614644875340.0641732631.3641732639.9411.304173263TT-1.58434.41687438.2636375396673.4594039679860.22727995042834161114126WETL
2025-03-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025180-10529.8421.9225.88174.799301115120.2405513111.7905513119.9311.720551311TT-2.1624.8487441.1504251575177.1127860041720.20906886485648161115127.5WETL
2025-03-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025180-10529.40821.39825.403176.665188887390.2043308191.5843308199.9211.504330819TT-2.59220.40887441.8915593932878.0668558079570.19599155576094161115127.5WETL
2025-03-25 16:00:02FORECAST2025180-10530.34423.14426.744176.86163573360.1870079751.6470079759.9411.587007975TT-1.65622.34487441.9693842853278.1674282488750.22495590495503161115127.5WETL
2025-03-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025180-10531.33423.23427.284174.591923309920.0744094891.41440948910.0711.484409489TT-0.66622.33487441.0678371959477.0068820061880.25806698301006162114128WETL
2025-03-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025180-10531.65822.78427.221174.704629791640.0716535821.4616535829.911.361653582TT-0.34223.65887441.1127278133977.0644358090180.26942683913557162114128WETL
2025-03-25 04:00:03FORECAST2025180-10532.23421.50626.87175.341782014930.0566929441.66669294410.0211.686692944TT0.23424.23487441.3662618945177.3899468818520.290221338745361621151210WETL
2025-03-25 00:00:02FORECAST2025180-10531.11822.17226.645181.162213602590.0811024061.4611024069.7411.201102406TT-0.88221.11887443.6634181364180.3750469240820.2506339467827162114128WETL
2025-03-24 20:00:03FORECAST2025180-10530.2921.63225.961183.652514964580.0811024061.5311024069.4510.981102406TT-1.7118.2987444.6359418573681.6585089657490.22322173065605161115127.5WETL
2025-03-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025180-10530.16421.09225.628183.788527709930.1149606921.5049606929.4110.914960692TT-1.83618.16487444.6888812101981.7287147665970.21920500485726161115127.5WETL
2025-03-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025180-10530.4719.29224.881184.967586481470.0763779941.8463779949.511.346377994TT-1.5317.4787445.1470329095882.3377723066720.22903181144557161115127.5WETL
2025-03-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025180-10531.5520.46226.006184.81295665110.0763779941.8263779949.5111.336377994TT-0.4518.5587445.087025906182.2578492247530.265612576490911621151210WETL
2025-03-24 04:00:05FORECAST2025180-10531.8220.49826.159184.793133175310.047244121.767244129.8611.62724412TT-0.1818.8287445.0793313302882.2476041480920.275199185370411621151210WETL
2025-03-24 00:00:02FORECAST2025180-10530.84821.27226.06194.859489261650.1956693971.7356693979.5511.285669397TT-1.15211.84887448.9372031365687.4796741137450.24150433495692161115127.5WETL
2025-03-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025180-10529.55221.03825.295186.541021216970.1956693971.6856693978.9810.665669397TT-2.4488.55287445.7562955660783.1518345887890.20029461123004161115127.5WETL
2025-03-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025180-10529.4820.60625.043186.179874083490.1633859151.6433859159.1210.763385915TT-2.529.4887445.6166680273882.9648551428410.19813604559156161115127.5WETL
2025-03-23 12:00:02FORECAST2025180-10531.38820.46225.925188.898602335660.0204724521.5004724528.8210.320472452TT-0.61212.38887446.6646485836984.374327830210.259942920126071621151210WETL
2025-03-23 08:00:03FORECAST2025180-10532.57619.74226.159189.139289534270.0204724521.4904724528.8110.300472452TT0.57612.57687446.7570773770384.49931620950.30291318907809162114128WETL
2025-03-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025180-10532.68419.97626.33187.536997355520.0232283591.4132283598.59.913228359TT0.68411.68487446.1406991410283.6678871149990.30697210088722162114128WETL
2025-03-23 00:00:03FORECAST2025180-10533.2617.8725.565190.66466003720.0346456881.9146456888.6410.554645688TT1.267.2687447.3415387632885.292222408820.329010981227061621151210WETL
2025-03-22 20:00:03FORECAST2025180-10534.3420.0327.185189.62935037980.0346456881.9146456888.4810.394645688TT2.344.3487446.945096174484.7539082429880.371923518989111621151210WETL
2025-03-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025180-10534.3420.2127.275189.782554542230.0555118411.8555118418.3510.205511841TT2.341.3487447.0038271222284.8335282014090.371923518989111621151210WETL
2025-03-22 12:00:02FORECAST2025180-10532.19820.42626.312191.237779421770.1228347122.0628347128.6110.672834712TT0.198-0.80287447.5605507646985.5904858850230.288899959929351621151210WETL
2025-03-22 08:00:03FORECAST2025180-10533.40422.42427.914190.948553605880.125984322.085984328.6310.71598432TT1.4041.40487447.4500657800185.4399428715510.334618802500811621151210WETL
2025-03-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025180-10534.86222.5528.706192.899842501960.0633858611.8633858618.8310.693385861TT2.8623.86287448.193892020786.4565311811340.393290135638071621151210WETL
2025-03-22 00:00:03FORECAST2025180-10534.86222.49628.679199.82193728830.0724409841.7624409849.0210.782440984TT2.8620.86287450.8030385113190.0803364907810.393290135638071621151210WETL
2025-03-21 20:00:03FORECAST2025180-10533.36820.71427.041187.064329588380.0712598811.7512598819.1910.941259881TT1.368-7.63287445.958391131783.4229074613630.333213325136061621151210WETL
2025-03-21 16:00:02FORECAST2025180-10533.1720.53426.852186.617447244690.0720472831.7220472839.0210.742047283TT1.17-2.8387445.7858271565983.1914130818260.325525421560981621151210WETL
2025-03-21 12:00:03FORECAST2025180-10531.1919.70625.448193.973695776850.129921331.689921339.6411.32992133TT-0.81-7.8187448.6016721215587.0169242730930.253098977584051621151210WETL
2025-03-21 08:00:02FORECAST2025180-10530.86619.2225.043193.711425189250.129921331.689921339.6911.37992133TT-1.134-6.13487448.5021813236286.8799967446850.24210731269343161115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 04:00:05FORECAST2025180-10531.15418.75224.953194.16207703440.1208662071.75086620710.111.850866207TT-0.846-5.84687448.6730925504387.1152995590380.251864872618031621151210WETL
2025-03-21 00:00:03FORECAST2025180-10532.77422.127.437197.695222898670.0921260341.7221260349.5211.242126034TT0.7742.77487450.0062921039788.9640942232970.310372706982661621151210WETL
2025-03-20 20:00:03FORECAST2025180-10532.77422.127.437187.756627069330.0921260341.7221260349.5211.242126034TT0.7743.77487446.2253358947383.7817639804760.310372706982661621151210WETL
2025-03-20 16:00:03FORECAST2025180-10531.94622.17227.059187.591185532150.1051181671.6651181679.4411.105118167TT-0.0539999999999982.94687446.161585545583.6959807713840.279730438751271621151210WETL
2025-03-20 12:00:03FORECAST2025180-10535.1527.78831.469189.858191360670.4003939171.9903939179.0311.020393917TT3.1514.1587447.0328141360184.8728415707320.405222320502941621151210WETL
2025-03-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025180-10535.1527.78831.469188.937395301490.4003939171.9903939178.8810.870393917TT3.1517.1587446.6795496938184.3944706535920.405222320502941621151210WETL
2025-03-20 04:00:04FORECAST2025180-10540.92826.1533.539191.327342447370.3440946741.9340946748.9110.844094674TT8.92815.92887447.5947476089185.6371135534120.648067433752311631151212.5WETL
2025-03-20 00:00:03FORECAST2025180-10534.1626.74430.452190.727818973880.1472441741.3272441748.129.447244174TT2.1611.1687447.365689971385.3250823319720.36464252210342162114128WETL
2025-03-19 20:00:03FORECAST2025180-10534.1625.95230.056186.748611746860.1507874831.3607874837.829.180787483TT2.1625.1687445.8364967442283.2593468330660.36464252210342162114128WETL
2025-03-19 16:00:03FORECAST2025180-10533.74625.37629.561186.701770369650.1507874831.4007874837.69.000787483TT1.74626.74687445.8184035935683.2350852142890.34808407743813162114128WETL
2025-03-19 12:00:03FORECAST2025180-10535.88832.28834.088181.824143471560.0307086780.9807086787.538.510708678TT3.88854.88887443.9225185154780.7158316968110.43617763094862162113126WETL
2025-03-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025180-10535.88832.28834.088181.541122503960.0307086780.9807086787.528.500708678TT3.88852.88887443.8117884260780.570090251360.43617763094862162113126WETL
2025-03-19 04:00:04FORECAST2025180-10533.69232.28832.99186.9278298889501.317.498.8TT1.69228.69287445.9057024391983.3521852920680.34594467396292162114128WETL