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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 2, 2025

[ Saturday, March 1, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, March 3, 2025 ]

DAY 153 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/03/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.05°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.98°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.01°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.576
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 93

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.08 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.08 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.20 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.28 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 142 in
SWE DAY: 61
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 409.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 58.01 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -131

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-03 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025153-13135.0499230.9799433.01493141.610609166670.0800000000000410.0800000000000419.29.28TT3.0499293.0499261409.65416441106 58.0113757699120.5762244453687516 3111122.5WETL
2025-03-03 03:00:02OBSERVATION2025153-13135.0499230.9799433.01493141.610609166670.0800000000000410.0800000000000419.29.28TT3.0499293.0499261409.65416441106 58.0113757699120.5762244453687516 3111122.5WETL
2025-03-02 11:00:02FORECAST2025153-13131.94627.529.723144.173572975420.0562992430.0562992439.29.256299243TT-0.05399999999999889.94661410.8756510521359.2374106607870.42357737103666162111122WETL
2025-03-02 07:00:02FORECAST2025153-13132.25226.8729.561144.098310410350.0523622330.0523622339.29.252362233TT0.25290.25261410.8398947666659.2013346850410.43849132280645162111122WETL
2025-03-02 03:00:04FORECAST2025153-13131.67626.9629.318144.219005305660.0889764260.0889764269.29.288976426TT-0.32489.67661410.8972320649559.2591900912580.41050758783949162111122WETL
2025-03-01 23:00:01FORECAST2025153-13132.50427.2329.867147.306755771850.094488240.094488249.29.29448824TT0.50480.50461412.3581371453960.7431393990120.45084030489371162112124WETL
2025-03-01 19:00:02FORECAST2025153-13131.38827.96829.678147.344622601660.1031496620.1031496629.29.303149662TT-0.61279.38861412.3759820278460.7613834418790.39667552656719162112124WETL
2025-03-01 15:00:02FORECAST2025153-13132.07228.63430.353147.387141271980.1188977020.1188977029.29.318897702TT0.07200000000000380.07261412.3960170617360.7818700266780.42970642490765162112124WETL
2025-03-01 11:00:02FORECAST2025153-13132.37828.77830.578146.840679226740.1696851310.1696851319.29.369685131TT0.37880.37861412.138356234560.5186761648680.44465909987092162112124WETL
2025-03-01 07:00:03FORECAST2025153-13132.39628.83230.614146.679114688070.1866142740.1966142749.29.396614274TT0.39682.39661412.0621088551460.440905323370.44554134153369162112124WETL
2025-03-01 03:00:03FORECAST2025153-1313227.78829.894146.928852154720.2539371450.2539371459.29.453937145TT08261412.1799546121860.5611276123540.42620193536903162112124WETL
2025-02-28 23:00:02FORECAST2025153-13132.82828.52630.677149.284217854720.055118140.055118149.29.25511814TT0.82875.82861413.287731705261.6973357765610.4667860887157162111122WETL
2025-02-28 19:00:01FORECAST2025153-13132.66627.64430.155149.41281571080.086614220.086614229.29.28661422TT0.66674.66661413.3480233423361.7594920360720.45880491126701162111122WETL
2025-02-28 15:00:01FORECAST2025153-13132.927.71630.308149.304166934310.074803190.074803199.29.27480319TT0.975.961413.2970858940961.7069771057950.47033776317465162111122WETL
2025-02-28 11:00:02FORECAST2025153-13133.827.75230.776148.379664152090.0287401730.0287401739.29.228740173TT1.876.861412.8630851196261.2604859108460.51484138484166163111122.5WETL
2025-02-28 07:00:03FORECAST2025153-13134.12427.46430.794148.356618647390.011811030.011811039.29.21181103TT2.12477.12461412.8522535591161.2493643389860.53084640458103163111122.5WETL
2025-02-28 03:00:03FORECAST2025153-13134.3427.55430.947148.253537949640.0114173290.0114173299.29.211417329TT2.3477.3461412.8037970947561.1996233983420.54149038928823163111122.5WETL
2025-02-27 23:00:01FORECAST2025153-13134.30427.64430.974151.195567497290.0149606380.0149606389.29.214960638TT2.30468.30461414.181820451862.6224553902720.53971824819036163111122.5WETL
2025-02-27 19:00:02FORECAST2025153-13134.9728.11231.541151.187650073030.0110236280.0110236289.29.211023628TT2.9768.9761414.1781257947362.6186175505550.57233855213541163111122.5WETL
2025-02-27 15:00:01FORECAST2025153-13134.64627.57231.109151.312101222710.011811030.011811039.29.21181103TT2.64667.64661414.2361921887962.6789486425780.55651679529136163111122.5WETL
2025-02-27 11:00:02FORECAST2025153-13134.32227.28430.803150.939639556370.0606299540.0606299549.29.260629954TT2.32267.32261414.06235434362.4984225183930.5406044195837163111122.5WETL
2025-02-27 07:00:03FORECAST2025153-13133.76425.50229.633151.583802584510.1086614760.1186614769.29.318661476TT1.76466.76461414.3628987972962.8107038496330.51306109851055163112125WETL
2025-02-27 03:00:03FORECAST2025153-13133.74627.66230.704151.064644146880.1114173830.1114173839.29.311417383TT1.74671.74661414.1207156733462.5589985470450.51217085550757163112125WETL
2025-02-26 23:00:02FORECAST2025153-13134.37627.78831.082151.926962795610.1740158420.1740158429.29.374015842TT2.37657.37661414.522804979162.9771907699910.54326170615893163112125WETL
2025-02-26 19:00:01FORECAST2025153-13134.55627.91431.235152.070869731390.1736221410.1736221419.29.373622141TT2.55655.55661414.5898214258863.0470347260150.55210470701306163112125WETL
2025-02-26 15:00:02FORECAST2025153-13132.43226.27629.354152.437486459870.2078741280.2078741289.29.407874128TT0.43254.43261414.7604416002863.2250392005320.44730662977279162112124WETL
2025-02-26 11:00:02FORECAST2025153-13135.18628.32831.757151.3344424009.29.2TT3.18657.18661414.2466141879462.6897803742190.58282374838688163111122.5WETL
2025-02-26 07:00:03FORECAST2025153-13134.98828.9431.964150.80584333333009.29.2TT2.98858.98861413.9998678979262.4335992182350.57321437973471163111122.5WETL
2025-02-26 03:00:03FORECAST2025153-13135.70828.92232.315150.801533788820.0019685050.0019685059.29.201968505TT3.70860.70861413.9978548713662.4315114998810.60790734653476163111122.5WETL
2025-02-25 23:00:02FORECAST2025153-13132.88226.83429.858139.084664952530.0972441470.18724414710.210.387244147TT0.88251.88261408.442515522156.8080904237610.46944961219082162112124WETL
2025-02-25 19:00:02FORECAST2025153-13134.95227.46431.208139.312081671570.0940945390.21409453910.210.414094539TT2.95248.95261408.5519218511756.9162187040090.57146236797921163112125WETL
2025-02-25 15:00:02FORECAST2025153-13134.9727.53631.253139.022288369190.11811030.238110310.210.4381103TT2.9753.9761408.4124961592356.7784398146270.57233855213541163112125WETL
2025-02-25 11:00:02FORECAST2025153-13135.54629.64232.594148.997791883510.0881890240.08818902410.210.288189024TT3.54653.54661413.1533733562761.5589403393060.60016540844984163111122.5WETL
2025-02-25 07:00:04FORECAST2025153-13132.23428.0430.137149.058114237270.0881890240.08818902410.1810.268189024TT0.23445.23461413.181677840361.5880817362660.43761139400282162111122WETL
2025-02-25 03:00:03FORECAST2025153-13132.37828.11230.245148.630549984120.0492126250.04921262510.0310.079212625TT0.37847.37861412.9809623334861.3815875645970.44465909987092162111122WETL
2025-02-24 23:00:02FORECAST2025153-13132.34228.07630.209151.19424986550.1641733170.44417331710.6811.124173317TT0.34235.34261414.1812055855762.62181668690.44289544302326162112124WETL
2025-02-24 19:00:03FORECAST2025153-13134.46629.42631.946150.876010593220.1641733170.44417331710.6811.124173317TT2.46638.46661414.0326405490362.4675930614160.54768616335546163112125WETL
2025-02-24 15:00:02FORECAST2025153-13133.69229.1231.406150.665720235320.1582678020.43826780210.6411.078267802TT1.69238.69261413.9344038620462.3657250880520.50949978034773163112125WETL
2025-02-24 11:00:03FORECAST2025153-13132.6327.19429.912154.627252084850.0637795620.24377956210.6310.873779562TT0.6334.6361415.7762371340964.2903370302220.45703345459926162112124WETL
2025-02-24 07:00:05FORECAST2025153-13132.37826.04229.21154.843751760350.0637795620.24377956210.610.843779562TT0.37835.37861415.8763611303464.3958560258640.44465909987092162112124WETL
2025-02-24 03:00:03FORECAST2025153-13132.48626.38429.435154.324166215070.0893701270.26937012710.4110.679370127TT0.48636.48661415.6359773390964.1426756518390.4499565096023162112124WETL
2025-02-23 23:00:03FORECAST2025153-13134.01627.84230.929161.522322081450.0736220870.21362208711.1611.373622087TT2.01635.01661418.9380892796267.6678529888090.52551565210475163112125WETL
2025-02-23 19:00:02FORECAST2025153-13135.20426.88831.046161.682974441050.0720472830.21204728311.0611.272047283TT3.20433.20461419.0111010413567.7469611401830.58369496994569163112125WETL
2025-02-23 15:00:03FORECAST2025153-13135.0627.12231.091160.49126908440.0791339010.21913390110.8811.099133901TT3.0636.0661418.4687962334367.1605881797220.5767140403009163112125WETL
2025-02-23 11:00:03FORECAST2025153-13131.49624.828.148163.263414722230.0543307380.28433073810.610.884330738TT-0.50428.49661419.7277785763568.526190384150.40184833790489162112124WETL
2025-02-23 07:00:04FORECAST2025153-13132.6325.98829.309162.404463858690.055118140.2851181410.3910.67511814TT0.6324.6361419.3386296147568.1024653178210.45703345459926162112124WETL
2025-02-23 03:00:03FORECAST2025153-13131.38824.74628.067164.628060484140.0657480670.36574806710.5710.935748067TT-0.61226.38861420.3442900787469.2004652112460.39667552656719162112124WETL
2025-02-22 23:00:02FORECAST2025153-13128.72424.20626.465172.03932415480.2826773180.71267731811.2711.982677318TT-3.27617.72461423.6554436558572.8853962010540.27679033942026162113126WETL
2025-02-22 19:00:02FORECAST2025153-13129.35424.51226.933168.485258139590.2807088130.72070881310.8611.580708813TT-2.64625.35461422.0753597121771.1134759354640.30353698977927162113126WETL
2025-02-22 15:00:03FORECAST2025153-13129.87623.79226.834168.421037187640.1803150580.65031505810.8711.520315058TT-2.12424.87661422.0466766433671.0815390218730.32653359624538162113126WETL
2025-02-22 11:00:02FORECAST2025153-13133.9827.15830.569163.344965589360.1484252770.22842527710.2910.518425277TT1.9840.9861419.7646812060868.5664474072340.52373767150405163112125WETL
2025-02-22 07:00:04FORECAST2025153-13133.9827.15830.569172.835363975740.1484252770.22842527710.7811.008425277TT1.9841.9861424.0073999562873.2834732998510.52373767150405163112125WETL
2025-02-22 03:00:04FORECAST2025153-13132.10827.33829.723171.450820053940.3358269530.43582695310.6711.105826953TT0.10839.10861423.3947880549972.5913836185930.43146076675468162112124WETL
2025-02-21 23:00:03FORECAST2025153-13134.12426.67230.398172.932607722660.0901575290.35015752910.9811.330157529TT2.12443.12461424.0503459709473.3321321344520.53084640458103163112125WETL
2025-02-21 19:00:03FORECAST2025153-13134.12426.67230.398173.222729220690.0901575290.35015752911.0511.400157529TT2.12447.12461424.178410085473.4773418714860.53084640458103163112125WETL
2025-02-21 15:00:03FORECAST2025153-13134.66426.7830.722176.014670087610.0200787510.31007875110.9811.290078751TT2.66446.66461425.4060040134574.8776974497180.55739839078744163112125WETL
2025-02-21 11:00:03FORECAST2025153-13139.81226.07832.945181.765011285140.0519685320.05196853212.3712.421968532TT7.81252.81261427.907118380277.7785422013680.78317416653965164111123WETL
2025-02-21 07:00:04FORECAST2025153-13141.59433.22437.409173.675911920190.0519685320.05196853212.7312.781968532TT9.59461.59461424.3782631919373.7042818589630.84233525030323164111123WETL
2025-02-21 03:00:04FORECAST2025153-13144.18633.58438.885170.662760467280012.7412.74TT12.18668.18661423.0451361444472.1980507366670.90758243534561165111123.5WETL
2025-02-20 23:00:03FORECAST2025153-13138.40831.31634.862173.624880478240.0996063530.67960635311.0111.689606353TT6.40856.40861424.355769870573.6787198240180.72866406288303164113129WETL
2025-02-20 19:00:04FORECAST2025153-13135.76230.41633.089173.515535886040.1000000540.69000005411.0211.710000054TT3.76248.76261424.3075638239473.6239543174120.61047869598964163113127.5WETL
2025-02-20 15:00:02FORECAST2025153-13135.13230.1132.621176.940210205890.106299270.7362992710.8611.59629927TT3.13251.13261425.8110390223575.3430947526020.5802076595666163113127.5WETL
2025-02-20 11:00:03FORECAST2025153-13136.30234.35835.33171.636978245280.0720472830.07204728310.3110.382047283TT4.30252.30261423.4772819097672.6843610225170.63590952224843163111122.5WETL
2025-02-20 07:00:04FORECAST2025153-13136.30234.35835.33173.886599691860.0720472830.07204728310.6310.702047283TT4.30247.30261424.4710979760773.8098358945290.63590952224843163111122.5WETL
2025-02-20 03:00:04FORECAST2025153-13136.30235.40235.852167.455547629360010.110.1TT4.30256.30261421.6148946702870.6017530757060.63590952224843163111122.5WETL