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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, March 1, 2025

[ Friday, February 28, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, March 2, 2025 ]

DAY 152 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/02/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.30°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.18°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.74°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.993
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 77

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.20 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.20 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 144 in
SWE DAY: 60
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 410.05 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 59.02 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -132

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-02 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025152-13254.3000235.1800644.74004143.94000083333009.29.2TT22.3000277.3000260410.05219447408 59.0229132143090.9925831942060516 5111123.5WETL
2025-03-02 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025152-13254.3000235.1800644.74004143.94000083333009.29.2TT22.3000277.3000260410.05219447408 59.0229132143090.9925831942060516 5111123.5WETL
2025-03-01 11:00:02FORECAST2025152-13244.1531.4637.805146.302905043440.0035433090.0035433099.29.203543309TT12.1567.1560411.1762385503560.1562781847520.88442847542443165111123.5WETL
2025-03-01 07:00:03FORECAST2025152-13246.20232.939.551146.097805866670.007874020.007874029.29.20787402TT14.20269.20260411.078939108460.0577310417340.92609321768915165111123.5WETL
2025-03-01 03:00:03FORECAST2025152-13246.0432.23439.137146.091311466670.003937010.003937019.29.20393701TT14.0469.0460411.0758573246160.0546111088360.92329074612954165111123.5WETL
2025-02-28 23:00:01FORECAST2025152-13247.9332.5440.235149.119471034460.0007874020.0007874029.29.200787402TT15.9361.9360412.5073078690261.5128715472760.95133684933087165111123.5WETL
2025-02-28 19:00:01FORECAST2025152-13247.15632.3639.758149.124319610360.0027559070.0027559079.29.202755907TT15.15661.15660412.5095910369361.515212096130.94104070069371165111123.5WETL
2025-02-28 15:00:01FORECAST2025152-13247.69631.96439.83149.0569344009.29.2TT15.69661.69660412.4778571891261.4826849004910.94838748592676165111123.5WETL
2025-02-28 11:00:01FORECAST2025152-13247.87632.34240.109148.318344009.29.2TT15.87661.87660412.1296751158861.1263909264460.95066843413634165111123.5WETL
2025-02-28 07:00:03FORECAST2025152-13247.35432.5439.947148.37034803333009.29.2TT15.35462.35460412.1542119429761.1514638693830.94382411742754165111123.5WETL
2025-02-28 03:00:03FORECAST2025152-13247.37232.55839.965148.27824563333009.29.2TT15.37262.37260412.1107534723461.107059531510.94407194646297165111123.5WETL
2025-02-27 23:00:01FORECAST2025152-13247.24632.14439.695151.2003624009.29.2TT15.24653.24660413.4846092609862.5190227670820.94231897461288165111123.5WETL
2025-02-27 19:00:02FORECAST2025152-13246.8532.55839.704151.2158112009.29.2TT14.8552.8560413.4918455700862.5265048524650.93652836874359165111123.5WETL
2025-02-27 15:00:01FORECAST2025152-13246.20231.85639.029151.3303488009.29.2TT14.20252.20260413.5454868021762.5819827624380.92609321768915165111123.5WETL
2025-02-27 11:00:02FORECAST2025152-13246.1123239.056150.7449672009.29.2TT14.11252.11260413.2711718581262.2985492464580.92454607396458165111123.5WETL
2025-02-27 07:00:03FORECAST2025152-13245.46431.56838.516151.156948830.0051181130.0051181139.29.205118113TT13.46452.46460413.4642725683262.4979978916450.91267248725545165111123.5WETL
2025-02-27 03:00:03FORECAST2025152-13247.1233.04440.082150.656462828990.0007874020.0007874029.29.200787402TT15.1257.1260413.2296624285262.2557192774970.94052323121185165111123.5WETL
2025-02-26 23:00:02FORECAST2025152-13246.95832.97239.965151.303348009.29.2TT14.95841.95860413.5328429614862.568903648030.93815059424568165111123.5WETL
2025-02-26 19:00:01FORECAST2025152-13247.08432.43239.758151.4439616009.29.2TT15.08440.08460413.5986795091162.6370225373880.94000222059462165111123.5WETL
2025-02-26 15:00:02FORECAST2025152-13246.77832.14439.461151.563616009.29.2TT14.77840.77860413.654684256562.6949997212530.93542868007911165111123.5WETL
2025-02-26 11:00:02FORECAST2025152-13246.5832.43239.506151.4299888009.29.2TT14.5840.5860413.5921383710962.6302528813010.93232845308756165111123.5WETL
2025-02-26 07:00:03FORECAST2025152-13246.65232.5439.596150.88820413333009.29.2TT14.65242.65260413.3383316348462.367878559850.93346880653504165111123.5WETL
2025-02-26 03:00:03FORECAST2025152-13247.58832.88240.235150.91329613333009.29.2TT15.58843.58860413.3500940543262.3800251507610.94697929798185165111123.5WETL
2025-02-25 23:00:02FORECAST2025152-13245.5931.56838.579138.665279510710.0925197350.09251973510.210.292519735TT13.5937.5960407.5185136532256.5086686015110.91508393306217165112127WETL
2025-02-25 19:00:02FORECAST2025152-13243.14230.79436.968138.951526431530.1204725060.12047250610.210.320472506TT11.14233.14260407.6568834752456.6445462192040.85875961277394165112127WETL
2025-02-25 15:00:02FORECAST2025152-13245.87831.74838.813138.556093711190.1212599080.12125990810.210.321259908TT13.87837.87860407.4657074659456.4568567477490.92040847093196165112127WETL
2025-02-25 11:00:02FORECAST2025152-13246.11231.69438.903148.751148477560010.210.2TT14.11237.11260412.3337845643461.3351240100460.92454607396458165111123.5WETL
2025-02-25 07:00:03FORECAST2025152-13246.38231.4638.921148.67369735710010.1810.18TT14.38232.38260412.2972753025861.2977603294940.92911487147497165111123.5WETL
2025-02-25 03:00:03FORECAST2025152-13243.89830.70437.301148.403430162350010.0310.03TT11.89833.89860412.1698192471961.1674149856790.87834444962593165111123.5WETL
2025-02-24 23:00:02FORECAST2025152-13240.56831.0135.789150.409576167870.2751969990.28519699910.6710.955196999TT8.56821.56860413.1138207972862.1362746952060.77689089848926164112126WETL
2025-02-24 19:00:02FORECAST2025152-13241.97231.40636.689150.213968736660.2751969990.28519699910.6710.955196999TT9.97222.97260413.0219882894262.041672036460.82444823684614164112126WETL
2025-02-24 15:00:02FORECAST2025152-13242.0831.11836.599149.982877081350.2787403080.28874030810.6310.918740308TT10.0824.0860412.913438069561.9299454272180.82781993037869164112126WETL
2025-02-24 11:00:03FORECAST2025152-13241.01831.33436.176154.3321704720.1814961610.18149616110.6310.811496161TT9.01821.01860414.9457760841464.0394822512560.79287748511985164112126WETL
2025-02-24 07:00:05FORECAST2025152-13240.4630.34435.402154.534480423620.1814961610.21149616110.5710.781496161TT8.4622.4660415.0397661217564.1379546127640.77295231897476164112126WETL
2025-02-24 03:00:03FORECAST2025152-13241.46830.25435.861153.880644815560.1818898620.21188986210.3810.591889862TT9.46823.46860414.7358300600463.8198169577540.80816718919505164112126WETL
2025-02-23 23:00:03FORECAST2025152-13240.31631.04635.681161.173488311880.1385827520.13858275211.1611.298582752TT8.31620.31660418.0974990251267.3862323723530.76764052266195164112126WETL
2025-02-23 19:00:02FORECAST2025152-13237.56230.12833.845161.328425401290.1370079480.13700794811.0611.197007948TT5.56216.56260418.1682446170667.4624244568890.65407249363792163112125WETL
2025-02-23 15:00:02FORECAST2025152-13238.17430.34434.259160.098550227480.1350394430.13503944310.8811.015039443TT6.17420.17460417.6059057693166.8581000801010.68108131701596163112125WETL
2025-02-23 11:00:03FORECAST2025152-13234.5228.6731.595162.942621646890.2311024870.23110248710.610.831102487TT2.5215.5260418.9036466959768.2572584100860.51061396356129163112125WETL
2025-02-23 07:00:04FORECAST2025152-13233.87227.78830.83162.095314445790.2314961880.23149618810.3910.621496188TT1.87210.87260418.5180030175467.8398073003520.47920443731894162112124WETL
2025-02-23 03:00:03FORECAST2025152-13233.42227.37430.398164.222555882980.3007875640.30078756410.5710.870787564TT1.42214.42260419.4846248389768.8888372446680.45745638180122162112124WETL
2025-02-22 23:00:02FORECAST2025152-13233.2626.6929.975170.05229195440.4303151930.44031519311.2611.700315193TT1.268.2660422.1070520407671.7802716496480.44965475004451162112124WETL
2025-02-22 19:00:02FORECAST2025152-13237.429.33633.368166.593570474460.444882130.4548821310.8511.30488213TT5.415.460420.5558805113370.0619057184130.64678270122724163112125WETL
2025-02-22 15:00:03FORECAST2025152-13236.44628.90432.675167.219907979450.4653545820.47535458210.8611.335354582TT4.44614.44660420.8377924796370.3724569327220.60283699150749163112125WETL
2025-02-22 11:00:02FORECAST2025152-13241.10833.00837.058162.488457388440.0834646120.08346461210.2910.373464612TT9.10826.10860418.6970414363268.0334363760910.7959916670449164111123WETL
2025-02-22 07:00:04FORECAST2025152-13241.41433.00837.211171.978855774820.0834646120.08346461210.7810.863464612TT9.41427.41460422.9651885816372.7410691648520.80636970014457164111123WETL
2025-02-22 03:00:04FORECAST2025152-13241.43232.64837.04169.266607561360.1015748580.10157485810.6710.771574858TT9.43226.43260421.7558826036471.3891874673660.80696999870559164112126WETL
2025-02-21 23:00:03FORECAST2025152-13240.69433.31437.004172.391711768140.2645670720.26456707210.9811.244567072TT8.69427.69460423.1485385582172.9473008942360.7814364381525164112126WETL
2025-02-21 19:00:02FORECAST2025152-13240.69433.31437.004172.681833266170.2645670720.26456707211.0511.314567072TT8.69431.69460423.2772669775273.092294441570.7814364381525164112126WETL
2025-02-21 15:00:02FORECAST2025152-13240.5533.15236.851175.945397554230.2937009460.29370094610.9811.273700946TT8.5530.5560424.7188109064174.7273200336870.77623717796631164112126WETL
2025-02-21 11:00:03FORECAST2025152-13244.47435.47439.974181.721849424400.1512.2212.37TT12.47432.47460427.2412080352877.6390624744860.89192979499097165112127WETL
2025-02-21 07:00:04FORECAST2025152-13246.18437.83242.008174.0046303081700.1412.5912.73TT14.18439.18460423.8629981302973.7541242909760.92578573753356165112127WETL
2025-02-21 03:00:04FORECAST2025152-13248.27238.53443.403171.6303276672800.1412.612.74TT16.27243.27260422.810256979472.5670629464630.95540416291337165112127WETL
2025-02-20 23:00:03FORECAST2025152-13240.5531.96436.257172.931019142530.5795278720.57952787211.0111.589527872TT8.5536.5560423.3877563453573.2168761972720.77623717796631164113129WETL
2025-02-20 19:00:04FORECAST2025152-13240.17231.22635.699172.739245900680.5917326030.59173260311.0211.611732603TT8.17232.17260423.3027300207873.1209943714880.76226042294894164113129WETL
2025-02-20 15:00:02FORECAST2025152-13240.71231.76636.239176.106229282290.6346460120.63464601210.8611.494646012TT8.71234.71260424.7895431538874.8080846833750.78208142807272164113129WETL
2025-02-20 11:00:03FORECAST2025152-13244.16835.38439.776171.207343058310010.3110.31TT12.16835.16860422.6220428137772.3559970680210.88485465184282165111123.5WETL
2025-02-20 07:00:04FORECAST2025152-13244.16835.38439.776173.456964504880010.6310.63TT12.16830.16860423.6207318138673.4799662417690.88485465184282165111123.5WETL
2025-02-20 03:00:04FORECAST2025152-13246.20234.89840.55167.497662829360010.110.1TT14.20239.20260420.9626653383870.5102625825970.92609321768915165111123.5WETL
2025-02-19 23:00:03FORECAST2025152-13233.3532.7233.035170.031493393750.0937008380.16370083810.8310.993700838TT1.3520.3560422.0977649451271.7699133317820.45398678392851162112124WETL
2025-02-19 19:00:03FORECAST2025152-13233.3530.54231.946169.256142631420.0937008380.16370083810.5910.753700838TT1.3520.3560421.7512004683671.3839813414440.45398678392851162112124WETL
2025-02-19 15:00:03FORECAST2025152-13231.3730.1130.74169.467652196290.0937008380.16370083810.2810.443700838TT-0.6317.3760421.8458082289171.4892187093970.36082748493096162112124WETL
2025-02-19 11:00:02FORECAST2025152-13235.99633.8934.943176.183336961330011.311.3TT3.99632.99660424.8234441236574.8468120051110.58160589528818163111122.5WETL
2025-02-19 07:00:05FORECAST2025152-13232.4529.71431.082175.750969829640011.0511.05TT0.4530.4560424.6332648745274.6297081236220.41099654509776162111122WETL
2025-02-19 03:00:04FORECAST2025152-13231.47830.59631.037174.916545144890010.910.9TT-0.52228.47860424.2656472168774.2110812348360.36575364485469162111122WETL