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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 8, 2025

[ Friday, February 7, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, February 9, 2025 ]

DAY 131 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/06/2025 07:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 23.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 13.23°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 18.17°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.113
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 11

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.31 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.34 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.56 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.90 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 139 in
SWE DAY: 39
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 391.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 54.39 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -153

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-06 19:00:02FORECAST2025131-15323.10813.22618.167138.829996634370.3118111920.3418111922.562.901811192FF-8.89211.10839391.7896921318954.392161640050.11257503672473161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 15:00:02FORECAST2025131-15322.80213.67618.239139.272478659780.3775592590.4175592592.562.977559259FF-9.19810.80239392.0212102758654.5977656423250.10613829491088161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 11:00:02FORECAST2025131-15322.22613.89218.059138.88900759970.2909450390.3309450392.562.890945039FF-9.77410.22639391.8205832480454.4195719644580.094749366616794161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 07:00:02FORECAST2025131-15322.67614.57618.626140.044478618070.3929135980.4529135982.563.012913598FF-9.32410.67639392.4245183067154.9568870632090.10356639591936161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 03:00:03FORECAST2025131-15322.67614.41418.545140.216083439020.4181104620.4781104622.563.038110462FF-9.32410.67639392.5140606720555.036784282180.10356639591936161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 23:00:02FORECAST2025131-15321.03814.46817.753141.151807556320.3771655580.5071655582.973.477165558FF-10.9622.03839393.0016298551555.4728904266320.074139720400354161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-05 19:00:02FORECAST2025131-15321.30813.4617.384140.460513114820.3220474180.3920474182.973.362047418FF-10.6922.30839392.6415352397255.1506315099620.078494543617554161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 15:00:01FORECAST2025131-15320.3913.5516.97140.571071207070.3279529330.4079529332.973.377952933FF-11.611.3939392.6991673273755.2021426133320.064440471527116161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 11:00:01FORECAST2025131-15319.6712.86616.268144.153794729940.31496080.39496082.973.3649608FF-12.330.6739394.5580482210556.8770398923030.054848647729471161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 07:00:03FORECAST2025131-15320.9313.26217.096143.588477100570.3354332520.4054332522.923.325433252FF-11.074.9339394.2658584056556.6120341812180.072450220096236161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 03:00:03FORECAST2025131-15320.28212.75816.52142.97991300450.2177166530.2777166532.943.217716653FF-11.7184.28239393.950846958156.327057826120.06292409575074161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 23:00:03FORECAST2025131-15319.68811.8415.764144.506788756060.1275591240.1775591242.913.087559124FF-12.312-6.31239394.7402838875257.0426508172390.055073905024646161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 19:00:03FORECAST2025131-15320.4811.98416.232144.632218885150.1307087320.2207087322.923.140708732FF-11.52-3.5239394.8049987456657.1015229955340.065725603534553161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 15:00:02FORECAST2025131-15321.5611.33616.448144.47163861150.1070866720.2370866722.893.127086672FF-10.44-2.4439394.7221447005757.0261550411360.082730865962382161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 11:00:02FORECAST2025131-15321.3811.91216.646143.34311677360.0448819140.1348819142.762.894881914FF-10.62-2.6239394.1389109534856.4970999378240.079687841771881161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 07:00:04FORECAST2025131-15320.80412.88416.844143.045651855880.0370078940.0970078942.752.847007894FF-11.196-4.19639393.9848988680656.3578266799540.070516470501547161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025131-15321.05613.6417.348144.066124699230.086614220.156614222.822.97661422FF-10.944-5.94439394.512762611456.8359248538090.074424196248094161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 23:00:02FORECAST2025131-15321.36214.1817.771142.567040860310.185039470.385039472.853.23503947FF-10.638-12.63839393.7368542638856.1338981900470.079388242751394161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 19:00:02FORECAST2025131-15321.09214.52217.807142.547403025070.2503938360.4403938362.83.240393836FF-10.908-11.90839393.7266703314656.1247143574580.0749956384459161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 15:00:02FORECAST2025131-15321.81213.92817.87142.411354241190.2224410650.4024410652.823.222441065FF-10.188-11.18839393.656103205156.0610987627480.087136383663913161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 11:00:03FORECAST2025131-15320.98413.83817.411143.066351213120.1712599350.2812599352.933.211259935FF-11.016-14.01639393.995619701556.3675157046450.073291258892529161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 07:00:03FORECAST2025131-15321.03813.98217.51142.476706949430.1657481210.2157481212.93.115748121FF-10.962-13.96239393.6900040364956.0916553340270.074139720400354161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 03:00:04FORECAST2025131-15320.42613.71217.069142.353423014730.1539370910.2039370912.893.093937091FF-11.574-13.57439393.626047461356.0340152438740.064952169703095161112123DRYL
2025-02-02 23:00:02FORECAST2025131-15321.07413.31617.195138.572608104060.1858268720.3458268722.93.245826872FF-10.926-14.92639391.6548999851454.2726409676740.074709501848761161112123DRYL
2025-02-02 19:00:02FORECAST2025131-15321.2913.94617.618138.899498780910.177165450.367165452.933.29716545FF-10.71-15.7139391.826074696854.4244453846780.078198339236172161112123DRYL
2025-02-02 15:00:03FORECAST2025131-15321.5781417.789139.987459972210.3027560690.5727560692.873.442756069FF-10.422-13.42239392.3947576800354.9303454340370.083039897450014161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 11:00:02FORECAST2025131-15322.76615.09818.932142.261042913440.4401577180.6601577182.83.460157718TF-9.234-12.23439393.5781098823555.9908323797660.10539881844529161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 07:00:04FORECAST2025131-15322.78415.33219.058142.619056015780.4862207350.7462207352.773.516220735TF-9.216-10.21639393.7638262096256.1582251871780.1057680910181161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 03:00:04FORECAST2025131-15322.67615.18818.932142.9403392670.3838584750.6438584752.893.533858475TF-9.324-13.32439393.9303455109256.3085372348970.10356639591936161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-01 23:00:02FORECAST2025131-15323.23413.62218.428127.912378999080.031496080.101496082.93.00149608FF-8.766-19.76639385.994112471449.3734252058560.11530466139271161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 19:00:02FORECAST2025131-15323.5413.62218.581128.565113129420.0602362530.1802362532.913.090236253FF-8.46-20.4639386.3451496321249.6705078694560.12212807786556161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 15:00:03FORECAST2025131-15324.36813.06418.716129.035231140090.0622047580.1822047582.983.162204758FF-7.632-17.63239386.5976164601649.8847127981460.14199117579824161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 11:00:03FORECAST2025131-15321.70413.92817.816136.247778995120.2279528790.5579528793.063.617952879TF-10.296-26.29639390.4334061189653.1956844292070.085227386161148161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-01 07:00:04FORECAST2025131-15321.50613.22617.366135.708272093610.2456694240.4656694243.043.505669424TF-10.494-25.49439390.1489098996952.9464344216930.08180894671558161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 03:00:04FORECAST2025131-15321.77614.39618.086141.08060384640.6625987830.9225987833.254.172598783TF-10.224-25.22439392.9645691126555.4396787006540.086496546909246161113124.5WETL
2025-01-31 23:00:03FORECAST2025131-15323.73818.19420.966133.772002950770.8665359011.3465359014.095.436535901TF-8.262-21.26239389.1246476962952.0539835198450.12669106289076161114126WETL
2025-01-31 19:00:03FORECAST2025131-15323.21616.23219.724132.205428661030.7555122191.1455122194.025.165512219TF-8.784-29.78439388.292254976151.3343440148740.11491186942233161114126WETL
2025-01-31 15:00:06FORECAST2025131-15323.34215.0819.211127.713162182350.3708663420.7308663423.924.650866342TF-8.658-30.65839385.8868586883549.2828309677050.11768139541805161113124.5WETL
2025-01-31 11:00:02FORECAST2025131-15324.5313.58619.058131.008093599270.062992160.062992163.954.01299216TF-7.47-30.4739387.6538190686950.7857878126670.14611915211644161111121.5WETL
2025-01-31 07:00:04FORECAST2025131-15325.17814.0919.634131.615821532880.0598425520.0598425524.214.269842552TF-6.822-25.82239387.9781108030451.0640577901170.16342828953588161111121.5WETL
2025-01-31 03:00:05FORECAST2025131-15328.02218.33823.18137.642514121220.019685050.659685054.244.89968505TF-3.978-16.97839391.1670825833253.8412206882330.25422160683906162113126WETL
2025-01-30 23:00:02FORECAST2025131-15324.74615.2620.003139.843590317180.0496063260.6996063264.234.929606326TF-7.254-33.25439392.3196463974254.863387904180.15174700797694161113124.5WETL
2025-01-30 19:00:03FORECAST2025131-15326.7819.00422.892139.093031262770.1665355230.8265355234.024.846535523TF-5.22-26.2239391.9273500781254.514363157150.21166965407547161113124.5WETL
2025-01-30 15:00:03FORECAST2025131-15327.87815.5321.704135.889154973510.185039470.395039473.924.31503947TF-4.122-33.12239390.2443376595453.0299732777530.24906903396418162112124WETL
2025-01-30 11:00:03FORECAST2025131-15332.68415.20623.945137.041062571520.051181130.271181134.374.64118113TF0.684-20.31639390.8510180437353.5626388198720.4450419682775162112124WETL
2025-01-30 07:00:04FORECAST2025131-15331.22614.75622.991137.388360759670.0421260070.2621260074.414.672126007TF-0.774-22.77439391.0335831583253.7234629921030.38141154332095162112124WETL
2025-01-30 03:00:04FORECAST2025131-15330.63211.24620.939134.60244452760.0055118140.0955118144.34.395511814TF-1.368-17.36839389.5645579383452.4363417998130.35628040692865162112124WETL
2025-01-29 23:00:02FORECAST2025131-15316.68213.3715.026134.517362764630.0216535550.2716535553.483.751653555TF-15.318-35.31839389.5195301844752.3971399457330.02642228922649161112123DRYL
2025-01-29 19:00:03FORECAST2025131-15318.30215.11616.709135.640780007440.0220472560.5220472563.494.012047256TF-13.698-23.69839390.1132920984352.9152712314990.03974945196439161113124.5WETL
2025-01-29 15:00:03FORECAST2025131-15320.51615.11617.816140.084864874110.0440945121.2340945123.324.554094512TF-11.484-12.48439392.4455951246154.9756881634680.06624516605928161114126WETL
2025-01-29 11:00:03FORECAST2025131-15315.63814.48615.062137.8138263320700.863.624.48TF-16.362-16.36239391.2570193324553.9206269134840.019990453595026161113124.5WETL
2025-01-29 07:00:05FORECAST2025131-15321.95619.72420.84140.857903799650.1318898351.0718898353.824.891889835TF-10.044-15.04439392.8486129296755.3358321278730.089730977161528161114126WETL
2025-01-29 03:00:04FORECAST2025131-15319.72419.6719.697134.697668752730.0307086780.3507086783.74.050708678TF-12.276-23.27639389.6149418407652.4802243771790.055526604484616161112123WETL