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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 6, 2025

[ Wednesday, February 5, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, February 7, 2025 ]

DAY 129 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/06/2025 11:00:01 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 19.65°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 8.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 13.86°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.052
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 40

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.24 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.33 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.57 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 137 in
SWE DAY: 37
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 389.28 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 53.36 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -155

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-06 11:00:01FORECAST2025129-15519.6528.0613.856137.062608198020.0102362260.2402362262.332.570236226FF-12.34839.65237389.2828681000753.3561252286020.051974939721063161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 07:00:02FORECAST2025129-15520.1929.17614.684137.617381201890.0228346580.2528346582.332.582834658FF-11.80840.19237389.5766283676553.6125153734180.058540645769612161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 03:00:03FORECAST2025129-15520.0128.25814.135137.608109078120.0212598540.2512598542.332.581259854FF-11.98840.01237389.5717220456653.608228021010.056283558560725161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 23:00:01FORECAST2025129-15519.7789.78814.783138.504430438460.0811024060.7211024062.333.051102406FF-12.22233.77837390.0454744325154.0230262813730.053452228688631161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-05 19:00:02FORECAST2025129-15519.7069.78814.747138.197142492170.0318897810.6718897812.333.001889781FF-12.29433.70637389.8831782804253.8807411441210.052604055534366161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-05 15:00:01FORECAST2025129-15519.61610.415.008138.329629045110.0515748310.6915748312.333.021574831FF-12.38433.61637389.9531674599553.9420769996990.051558849720204161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-05 11:00:01FORECAST2025129-15519.9049.82414.864141.851476861130.0263779670.6663779672.332.996377967FF-12.09633.90437391.8050590973955.5781262746280.054962482525172161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-05 07:00:03FORECAST2025129-15519.95810.41815.188141.278351825380.0358267910.6258267912.332.955826791FF-12.04236.95837391.5048204633355.311155766750.055619935181033161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-05 03:00:03FORECAST2025129-15519.9949.75214.873141.396740242540.0267716680.6367716682.332.966771668FF-12.00636.99437391.5668755211655.3662797856510.05606166299595161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 23:00:03FORECAST2025129-15519.74210.20214.972143.576256919810.043307110.623307112.332.95330711FF-12.25826.74237392.7059740770656.3832538280330.053026801777695161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 19:00:02FORECAST2025129-15520.6610.52615.593143.604063142910.0740157880.6640157882.332.994015788FF-11.3428.6637392.7204659692856.3962545925640.064740819657903161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 15:00:02FORECAST2025129-15520.7510.79615.773143.63262731950.1106299810.6706299812.333.000629981FF-11.2528.7537392.7353518217656.4096104234090.065989415560264161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 11:00:02FORECAST2025129-15520.80411.60616.205143.037486158970.0858268180.5158268182.332.845826818FF-11.19628.80437392.4249783974356.1314824159560.066747450036348161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 07:00:04FORECAST2025129-15519.90411.85815.881142.790089575030.0618110570.4818110572.332.811811057FF-12.09628.90437392.2958199220956.0159552665860.054962482525172161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025129-15519.86811.49815.683143.218832304860.0401575020.5301575022.332.860157502FF-12.13227.86837392.5196023451956.2161991046460.05452759182072161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 23:00:02FORECAST2025129-15520.3912.03816.214140.194137660710.0677165720.5077165722.412.917716572FF-11.6120.3937390.9356445891854.8068855740150.061104591572668161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 19:00:02FORECAST2025129-15520.51612.7416.628139.753322784430.0586614490.4486614492.412.858661449FF-11.48420.51637390.7037830737554.6021519090040.062781195765505161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 15:00:02FORECAST2025129-15520.49812.90216.7139.902424803470.0649606650.4749606652.412.884960665FF-11.50220.49837390.7822373874154.6713825806240.062539516743434161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 11:00:02FORECAST2025129-15519.3112.84816.079141.498528525130.0641732630.5841732632.412.994173263FF-12.6919.3137391.6202144534155.4136840858520.048127792768795161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 07:00:03FORECAST2025129-15519.00411.98415.494141.045168065720.0248031630.5348031632.392.924803163FF-12.99619.00437391.3825391240955.2026160087460.044881346132121161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 03:00:03FORECAST2025129-15519.41811.4815.449141.019661509710.0244094620.5244094622.392.914409462FF-12.58219.41837391.3691591157455.190746343840.049317341343861161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 23:00:02FORECAST2025129-15519.61611.46215.539136.036369960170.0212598540.4712598542.452.921259854FF-12.38415.61637388.7383679193352.8825564359860.051558849720204161112123DRYL
2025-02-02 19:00:02FORECAST2025129-15519.56211.94815.755136.293639480060.0295275750.5195275752.442.959527575FF-12.43815.56237388.8750029895453.0011894602630.05093966949457161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 15:00:02FORECAST2025129-15521.00212.4716.736135.964410810260.0460630170.5060630172.412.916063017FF-10.99818.00237388.7001346485452.8493847893580.069584456073949161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 11:00:02FORECAST2025129-15521.23615.18818.212138.350065794820.122047310.512047312.412.92204731FF-10.76417.23637389.9639615635153.9515397399210.073055530298908161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 07:00:04FORECAST2025129-15521.66815.56618.617138.078956276450.1240158150.5240158152.372.894015815FF-10.33218.66837389.8207237154353.8260386655590.079808404418328161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 03:00:04FORECAST2025129-15520.4814.50417.492138.9694979610.1204725060.5304725062.483.010472506FF-11.5217.4837390.2908620979654.2385251645210.062298561164348161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-01 23:00:02FORECAST2025129-15520.85811.7516.304127.144509753470.0059055150.2159055152.692.905905515FF-11.1429.85837383.9606342538548.8184866068360.067512182008539161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 19:00:02FORECAST2025129-15520.96611.76816.367127.172667991090.0059055150.2559055152.662.915905515FF-11.0348.96637383.9759350616448.8312441061620.069061867684756161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 15:00:02FORECAST2025129-15520.8411.5716.205127.62666073310.0051181130.2551181132.732.985118113FF-11.1610.8437384.2224776160649.0370317967360.067256525183971161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 11:00:02FORECAST2025129-15518.53610.414.468131.743247490690.0062992160.3262992162.743.066299216FF-13.4642.53637386.4450774991350.9115294865260.040258507456479161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 07:00:03FORECAST2025129-15519.1310.29214.711131.808078831870.0047244120.3047244122.743.044724412FF-12.874.1337386.4798952541250.9411725005880.046196175550763161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 03:00:04FORECAST2025129-15518.6269.19413.91133.305665899750.0055118140.3955118142.863.255511814FF-13.3744.62637387.2825824643751.6269625467880.041116247250588161112123DRYL
2025-01-31 23:00:02FORECAST2025129-15520.6611.5716.115122.2635009377700.233.864.09TF-11.344.6637381.2917549501446.618064838910.064740819657903161112123WETL
2025-01-31 19:00:03FORECAST2025129-15518.8789.78814.333121.9521279230700.23.824.02TF-13.122-2.12237381.1203744435746.4784406582310.043596718096907161112123WETL
2025-01-31 15:00:05FORECAST2025129-15517.7089.75213.73121.2497450098600.113.813.92TF-14.292-4.29237380.7332829959846.1638134800280.033028557679863161112123DRYL
2025-01-31 11:00:02FORECAST2025129-15518.146.94412.542130.4518780650400.13.853.95TF-13.86-4.8637385.7503500303250.3218576257030.036655028410413161112123DRYL
2025-01-31 07:00:04FORECAST2025129-15518.777.68213.226131.0891575003600.124.094.21TF-13.23-1.2337386.0934767147850.6126685789240.042519301619908161112123WETL
2025-01-31 03:00:04FORECAST2025129-15518.8066.0812.443133.067576471310.1696851310.2596851314.154.409685131TF-13.1940.80637387.1551736605851.5178006773440.042876029822137161112123WETL
2025-01-30 23:00:02FORECAST2025129-15519.5624.89212.227134.414177218770.1763780480.2163780484.194.406378048TF-12.438-10.43837387.8747667405352.1358676353510.05093966949457161112123WETL
2025-01-30 19:00:03FORECAST2025129-15520.4985.6313.064132.907256447290.1755906460.2155906463.984.195590646TF-11.502-5.50237387.0693381814351.4443237925610.062539516743434161112123WETL
2025-01-30 15:00:03FORECAST2025129-15521.566.27813.919131.7294503883200.143.783.92TF-10.44-10.4437386.4376670076450.9052214842610.078077631310492161112123DRYL
2025-01-30 11:00:03FORECAST2025129-15520.8048.4214.612134.43590715160.0106299270.3206299274.064.380629927TF-11.196-2.19637387.8863585595252.1458544846820.066747450036348161112123WETL
2025-01-30 07:00:04FORECAST2025129-15520.9488.614.774134.81910849680.0098425250.3198425254.14.419842525TF-11.052-3.05237388.0906719862252.3220384131070.068801706419055161112123WETL
2025-01-30 03:00:04FORECAST2025129-15520.9129.60815.26134.355326723220.0688976750.2788976754.094.368897675TF-11.0882.91237387.8433697677752.1088226625820.068283643832738161112123WETL
2025-01-29 23:00:02FORECAST2025129-15520.67812.41616.547132.425657651070.1149606920.2449606923.353.594960692FF-11.322-1.32237386.8112794629751.2237380697350.064989065001408161112123DRYL
2025-01-29 19:00:03FORECAST2025129-15522.96415.27819.121132.803800126770.2685040820.4085040823.353.758504082TF-9.0367.96437387.0139290196751.3969204758050.10288376968131161112123DRYL
2025-01-29 15:00:03FORECAST2025129-15524.60216.4320.516132.257570010410.3437009730.4837009733.183.663700973TF-7.3989.60237386.7211374528951.1467979111810.13849511429508161112123DRYL
2025-01-29 11:00:03FORECAST2025129-15524.22414.50419.364132.196439968660.2114174370.3014174373.533.831417437TF-7.77612.22437386.688345100551.1188225996570.12961459664609161112123DRYL
2025-01-29 07:00:04FORECAST2025129-15524.18815.92620.057133.239526895790.2456694240.3356694243.734.065669424TF-7.8127.18837387.2471972256451.5966333500650.12878982333134161112123WETL
2025-01-29 03:00:04FORECAST2025129-15521.97413.40617.69132.221110870930.1185040010.2285040013.593.818504001TF-10.0262.97437386.7015800723451.1301124927070.084869221836436161112123DRYL
2025-01-28 23:00:03FORECAST2025129-15522.22612.75817.492133.499253675930.0460630170.2160630173.563.776063017TF-9.7740.22637387.3861203188451.7157579469790.089213959387193161112123DRYL
2025-01-28 19:00:03FORECAST2025129-15519.63411.4815.557133.304681468050.0460630170.2160630173.453.666063017TF-12.366-4.36637387.2820558240251.6265110899140.05176656353375161112123DRYL
2025-01-28 15:00:03FORECAST2025129-15520.8412.03816.439137.366242274250.1704725330.6004725333.64.200472533TF-11.165.8437389.4436979797753.496417368870.067256525183971161113124.5WETL
2025-01-28 11:00:03FORECAST2025129-15525.8814.7220.3137.945482916350.2496064340.8896064343.424.309606434TF-6.1220.8837389.7501682341253.7642751737860.17152577013326161113124.5WETL
2025-01-28 07:00:04FORECAST2025129-15525.64614.79220.219137.273702547090.2551182480.8851182483.264.145118248TF-6.35417.64637389.3946943779753.4536514494560.16512977164162161113124.5WETL
2025-01-28 03:00:04FORECAST2025129-15525.53815.6220.579141.595918033450.1826772641.0026772643.844.842677264TF-6.46222.53837391.6712354393455.4590481493270.16223039768487161114126WETL
2025-01-27 23:00:03FORECAST2025129-15515.94414.10815.026150.695264909950.2535434441.27354344445.273543444TF-16.0565.94437396.383005225759.7330419782880.021145520566048161114126WETL
2025-01-27 19:00:03FORECAST2025129-15515.76412.0213.892151.15024749130.2578741551.1178741554.175.287874155TF-16.236-1.23637396.6157549855659.9485695250160.020167148794429161114126WETL
2025-01-27 15:00:03FORECAST2025129-15517.04212.0214.531153.11683505390.4496065421.6896065423.545.229606542TF-14.9580.04200000000000237397.6186894606360.8821152884930.028019412403421161115127.5WETL
2025-01-27 11:00:03FORECAST2025129-15516.41213.31614.864140.345537183030.0322834820.8922834823.34.192283482TF-15.5883.41237391.015218421554.8772408761060.02387837729864161113124.5WETL
2025-01-27 07:00:05FORECAST2025129-1557.793.8665.828140.0232575077200.893.394.28TF-24.21-3.2137390.8457951958554.7275014265180.0017369806702747161113124.5WETL
2025-01-27 03:00:05FORECAST2025129-1557.8267.0527.439135.6608850692300.213.363.57FF-24.174-13.17437388.5387886991252.7095159586510.0017590647217489161112123DRYL