MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 4, 2025

[ Monday, February 3, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, February 5, 2025 ]

DAY 127 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/05/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.60°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 9.78°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 18.69°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.224
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 66

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.48 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.88 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.36 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 138 in
SWE DAY: 35
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 388.09 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 53.48 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -157

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-05 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025127-15727.600089.7800818.69008137.811404166670.0300000000000860.480000000000091.882.3600000000001FF-4.3999265.6000835388.09076241433 53.4833329124310.2239686294811116 1112123DRYL
2025-02-05 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025127-15727.600089.7800818.69008137.811404166670.0300000000000860.480000000000091.882.3600000000001FF-4.3999265.6000835388.09076241433 53.4833329124310.2239686294811116 1112123DRYL
2025-02-04 11:00:01FORECAST2025127-15716.887.82612.353140.257341271310.0409449040.4909449041.882.370944904FF-15.1254.8835389.390199447154.6148340915570.027509412987561161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 07:00:03FORECAST2025127-15717.9248.56413.244140.212676569090.0259842660.4759842661.882.355984266FF-14.07655.92435389.3665430137354.5941251624070.035498963424338161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 03:00:02FORECAST2025127-15717.698.70813.199140.220916634480.0283464720.4783464721.882.358346472FF-14.3155.6935389.3709075245354.597945563890.033560309953037161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 23:00:01FORECAST2025127-15718.71610.54414.63137.382303376260.062992160.592992161.882.47299216FF-13.28447.71635387.8619633044853.2853699108090.042749627950879161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 19:00:01FORECAST2025127-15718.419.87814.144137.232727861820.0389763990.5689763991.882.448976399FF-13.5947.4135387.7821501136953.2164022762250.039818146798752161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 15:00:02FORECAST2025127-15718.55410.90414.729137.299057944030.0488189240.5788189241.882.458818924FF-13.44647.55435387.8175474527753.2469839194270.041176714249947161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 11:00:02FORECAST2025127-15718.53610.74214.639138.186485089620.0476378210.5776378211.882.457637821FF-13.46447.53635388.29055365253.6565068026720.041004871417622161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 07:00:03FORECAST2025127-15718.84211.15614.999138.159206057990.0744094890.5844094891.882.464409489FF-13.15847.84235388.2760295743353.6439079773370.04400618270595161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 03:00:03FORECAST2025127-15718.15810.63414.396138.143977889850.0692913760.5792913761.882.459291376FF-13.84248.15835388.2679212572953.6368751295050.037528212747428161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 23:00:01FORECAST2025127-15717.7810.43614.108133.49493582530.0968504460.6668504461.882.546850446FF-14.2243.7835385.7777933576351.4993817671040.034295405747176161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 19:00:01FORECAST2025127-15717.67210.07613.874133.316069356150.0862205190.6462205191.882.526220519FF-14.32843.67235385.6813999251851.4175282618040.033414853741417161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 15:00:02FORECAST2025127-15718.19411.04814.621133.00626163420.0657480670.5957480671.882.475748067FF-13.80644.19435385.5143369208451.2758207602290.037848627601068161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 11:00:02FORECAST2025127-15718.15810.83214.495135.804486646770.1307087320.6607087321.882.540708732FF-13.84244.15835387.018514426152.5588506744330.037528212747428161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 07:00:04FORECAST2025127-15718.24811.44414.846135.577352486650.145669370.635669371.882.51566937FF-13.75245.24835386.8968174163752.4544461908210.038333419706031161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 03:00:04FORECAST2025127-15717.9249.9513.937136.458069642930.1677166260.7677166261.882.647716626FF-14.07644.92435387.368308524152.8595316220480.035498963424338161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-01 23:00:01FORECAST2025127-15717.69.35613.478126.524206671260.1448819680.7148819682.122.834881968FF-14.436.635381.9885851629748.3308026952230.032838195768777161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-01 19:00:02FORECAST2025127-15717.4749.30213.388126.457731136860.1582678020.6982678022.122.818267802FF-14.52636.47435381.9521259052548.3007992448760.031848738777494161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-01 15:00:02FORECAST2025127-15717.3129.24813.28126.944938095080.1622048120.7722048122.122.892204812FF-14.68837.31235382.2191973394148.5207923450020.03061279563325161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-01 11:00:02FORECAST2025127-15715.7648.83412.299130.121182351490.1196851040.7396851042.122.859685104FF-16.23633.76435383.9522366264149.9603189963270.020682858158173161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-01 07:00:03FORECAST2025127-15715.8187.57411.696130.106668697230.0933071370.6833071372.152.833307137FF-16.18233.81835383.9443493648149.9537202609790.020976637348281161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-01 03:00:04FORECAST2025127-15716.3047.64611.975131.250232288440.1393701540.8093701542.192.999370154FF-15.69635.30435384.5649142722950.4742343282210.023782678075985161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-31 23:00:02FORECAST2025127-15717.1869.30213.244121.156746463520.1019685590.7019685593.263.961968559TF-14.81432.18635379.0248324752545.9214155315820.029679126257846161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-31 19:00:02FORECAST2025127-15716.079.30212.686121.010650062330.0980315490.7080315493.213.918031549TF-15.9328.0735378.9435961427145.8562109061880.022394605382696161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-31 15:00:04FORECAST2025127-15715.718.45612.083120.701432067810.0531496350.6531496353.213.863149635TF-16.2927.7135378.7715572300645.7182693842220.020392563305345161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-31 11:00:02FORECAST2025127-15715.087.12411.102129.988450688080.0476378210.7176378213.183.897637821TF-16.9228.0835383.8800944541649.899978728090.017252822976424161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-31 07:00:04FORECAST2025127-15714.7746.38610.58130.570415662660.0562992430.7462992433.44.146299243TF-17.22630.77435384.1962230531550.1646605400720.015882913987181161113124.5WETL
2025-01-31 03:00:04FORECAST2025127-15716.0527.05211.552131.076892367630.0543307380.7743307383.434.204330738TF-15.94833.05235384.4709656951750.3952593889040.022290714003296161113124.5WETL
2025-01-30 23:00:02FORECAST2025127-15714.996.3510.67132.534979959980.0334645850.8434645853.384.223464585TF-17.0121.9935385.2599472759351.0604193915990.016839821623245161113124.5WETL
2025-01-30 19:00:02FORECAST2025127-15715.7826.3511.066131.153346322920.0263779670.7963779673.214.006377967TF-16.21824.78235384.5124081054950.4300890257190.020780395855562161113124.5WETL
2025-01-30 15:00:02FORECAST2025127-15715.4767.10611.291130.930596459440.0641732630.8141732633.033.844173263TF-16.52420.47635384.3916425203750.3286270292170.01917412097532161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-30 11:00:02FORECAST2025127-15716.77210.52613.649133.139257535250.1830709650.8730709653.374.243070965TF-15.22825.77235385.5860707174651.3366431712590.026775832636574161113124.5WETL
2025-01-30 07:00:03FORECAST2025127-15715.9989.91412.956133.513245557060.1830709650.8230709653.464.283070965TF-16.00225.99835385.7876582360251.5077623469510.021981470845033161113124.5WETL
2025-01-30 03:00:04FORECAST2025127-15716.5569.35612.956133.046351085960.1472441740.7472441743.494.237244174TF-15.44431.55635385.5359624587651.294153017550.025357501969037161113124.5WETL
2025-01-29 23:00:02FORECAST2025127-15716.0168.02412.02130.174531611610.0255905650.5055905652.873.375590565FF-15.98424.01635383.9812261076249.984576256210.02208414792087161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-29 19:00:02FORECAST2025127-15717.3128.94213.127129.414694646960.0421260070.4321260072.963.392126007FF-14.68829.31235383.5679672287449.6393313552640.03061279563325161112123DRYL
2025-01-29 15:00:02FORECAST2025127-15716.41210.00413.208128.385064491970.0409449040.4209449042.83.220944904FF-15.58829.41235383.0066994986849.1723398159960.024447262820162161112123DRYL
2025-01-29 11:00:02FORECAST2025127-15717.7449.89613.82129.908997396060.0523622330.5523622333.033.582362233TF-14.25631.74435383.8368984470149.8638666408650.033999799323373161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-29 07:00:04FORECAST2025127-15717.25810.95814.108130.816632729260.059055150.569055153.223.78905515TF-14.74227.25835384.3298297639450.2767341871260.030209722904329161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-29 03:00:04FORECAST2025127-15717.72611.22814.477130.904319849080.0870079210.5970079213.083.677007921TF-14.27425.72635384.3773919439950.3166610577920.033852781454729161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-28 23:00:02FORECAST2025127-15722.40612.0217.213132.732467809140.1421260610.5221260613.183.702126061TF-9.59422.40635385.3665848476951.1506578180140.093396615786692161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-28 19:00:03FORECAST2025127-15721.0568.38414.72132.470145346030.1409449580.4909449583.13.590944958TF-10.94421.05635385.2249268456851.0308020501610.071297941322484161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-28 15:00:03FORECAST2025127-15723.32415.24219.283133.480672740150.2425198160.6025198163.243.842519816TF-8.67630.32435385.77010840551.4928535929420.11107069077835161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-28 11:00:03FORECAST2025127-15725.66417.9621.812131.659059158770.2830710190.4530710193.253.703071019TF-6.33638.66435384.786330763950.6606062855310.16652991458902161112123DRYL
2025-01-28 07:00:04FORECAST2025127-15724.8918.75221.821131.215938281490.3098426870.4598426873.113.569842687TF-7.1136.8935384.5463305310450.4586075733340.14649299498412161112123DRYL
2025-01-28 03:00:04FORECAST2025127-15728.07621.4724.773136.355823854660.5051183831.0551183833.294.345118383TF-3.92441.07635387.3136254376652.8124684866870.23963833582631161114126WETL
2025-01-27 23:00:03FORECAST2025127-15730.09223.41426.753141.503115248570.5492128951.6192128952.934.549212895TF-1.90833.09235390.0489371390355.1931397045660.312138864019811621151210WETL
2025-01-27 19:00:02FORECAST2025127-15728.65220.37224.512142.181758712460.425197081.555197083.044.59519708TF-3.34828.65235390.4069127032155.5087414616440.259375695769981621151210WETL
2025-01-27 15:00:03FORECAST2025127-15728.41821.32624.872139.419998863460.6055121381.3655121382.784.145512138TF-3.58227.41835388.9462585065454.2268869189270.25125757293594162114128WETL
2025-01-27 11:00:03FORECAST2025127-15727.19419.07623.135137.311564557270.6228349821.2128349822.713.922834982TF-4.80631.19435387.8242209935253.2527505578260.21107073082044161114126DRYL
2025-01-27 07:00:04FORECAST2025127-15727.42820.19223.81137.431881765170.6515751551.2615751552.784.041575155TF-4.57235.42835387.8884115417253.3082343130790.21844924549492161114126WETL
2025-01-27 03:00:04FORECAST2025127-15721.2546.81814.036134.864382897020.1413386590.8613386592.643.501338659TF-10.74623.25435386.5143565281652.1270201740090.074262262930693161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-26 23:00:03FORECAST2025127-15725.5028.52817.015143.122848001320.0622047581.7222047582.674.392204758TF-6.49825.50235390.9023049685155.9470511773750.16219654118961161115127.5WETL
2025-01-26 19:00:02FORECAST2025127-15723.0187.7915.404143.511826500320.0665354691.6965354692.74.396535469TF-8.98221.01835391.1067188087856.1284395727950.10493195387197161115127.5WETL
2025-01-26 15:00:02FORECAST2025127-15722.9647.66415.314143.598185988240.0661417681.6961417682.674.366141768TF-9.03616.96435391.1520745812856.1687283554090.10387456732492161115127.5WETL
2025-01-26 11:00:03FORECAST2025127-15731.1548.07819.616131.59820777480.0385826980.7585826982.032.788582698FF-0.84621.15435384.7533888334150.6328564057590.35377765018302162113126DRYL
2025-01-26 07:00:04FORECAST2025127-15728.229.518.86132.385869535120.0385826981.0085826981.852.858582698FF-3.7821.2235385.1793966275550.9923093495530.24449464265979161114126DRYL
2025-01-26 03:00:05FORECAST2025127-15725.8629.0517.456131.745707710060.0606299540.7106299541.952.660629954FF-6.13814.86235384.8332292192150.7001261338310.17192653211316161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-25 23:00:03FORECAST2025127-15715.2249.24812.236134.1343091222900.512.052.56FF-16.776-4.77635386.1220019807151.7922079725980.017931581266087161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-25 19:00:03FORECAST2025127-15717.9611.04814.504134.2199082114700.52.082.58FF-14.04-3.0435386.1680421049751.8314391655320.035805187587834161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-25 15:00:03FORECAST2025127-15723.0916.91620.003131.312866784620.1905512840.4205512841.842.260551284FF-8.9113.0935384.5988513971250.5027777390270.1063538541414161112123DRYL
2025-01-25 11:00:03FORECAST2025127-15717.49214.01815.755122.5040457436300.061.231.29FF-14.50816.49235379.77257381146.5236767543190.031988567981328161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-25 07:00:04FORECAST2025127-15735.65433.65634.655120.2347561949200.060.981.04FF3.65462.65435378.5116578522145.5102568987970.54406159613965163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-25 03:00:04FORECAST2025127-15735.72635.13235.429122.8425163663900.410.991.4FF3.72656.72635379.9600207274546.6752450647850.54714228007867163112125DRYL