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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 3, 2025

[ Sunday, February 2, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, February 4, 2025 ]

DAY 126 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/04/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.68°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.87°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 20.27°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.183
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 62

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.07 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.82 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.51 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.33 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 140 in
SWE DAY: 34
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 388.49 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 54.41 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -158

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-04 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025126-15825.6800214.8699420.27498140.053853750.0699999999999360.819999999999941.512.3299999999999FF-6.3199861.6800234388.48814656669 54.409262062860.1834077172132616 1113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 03:00:02OBSERVATION2025126-15825.6800214.8699420.27498140.053853750.0699999999999360.819999999999941.512.3299999999999FF-6.3199861.6800234388.48814656669 54.409262062860.1834077172132616 1113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 11:00:02FORECAST2025126-15816.93410.1313.532137.893939413420.1539370910.9039370911.512.413937091FF-15.06652.93434387.3361177081853.411303147880.032763228883819161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 07:00:02FORECAST2025126-15816.91610.00413.46137.705830495990.1271654230.8771654231.512.387165423FF-15.08452.91634387.2354869519453.3245843282350.032621693796754161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 03:00:03FORECAST2025126-15817.6729.7713.721137.704748617180.1255906190.8755906191.512.385590619FF-14.32853.67234387.2349080509353.3240856689520.039014980076433161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 23:00:01FORECAST2025126-15817.6369.55413.595132.845618211640.1334646390.9434646391.512.453464639FF-14.36449.63634384.6187277116551.0949126586290.038689028540659161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 19:00:01FORECAST2025126-15817.789.60813.694132.740415197710.1157480940.9257480941.512.435748094FF-14.2249.7834384.5617280014351.0468834440590.040006228227952161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 15:00:02FORECAST2025126-15818.28410.43614.36132.587390061620.0948819410.9048819411.512.414881941FF-13.71650.28434384.4787907442950.9770393988320.04490496717278161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 11:00:01FORECAST2025126-15818.2310.34614.288134.999603816460.0925197350.9025197351.512.412519735FF-13.7750.2334385.7824295978752.0804751550640.044358108241576161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 07:00:03FORECAST2025126-15818.48211.06614.774134.68096205710.0988189510.8588189511.512.368818951FF-13.51851.48234385.6106827353951.9344177302980.046956550408873161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 03:00:04FORECAST2025126-15817.8349.12213.478135.37713012130.1177165990.9677165991.512.477716599FF-14.16650.83434385.9857352105752.2536411005660.040509449215606161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-01 23:00:01FORECAST2025126-15817.2048.2412.722125.463165669690.1251969181.1751969181.512.685196918FF-14.79643.20434380.581666940447.748980730190.034947493069905161114126DRYL
2025-02-01 19:00:02FORECAST2025126-15817.3488.88813.118125.302763479350.1307087321.1507087321.512.660708732FF-14.65243.34834380.4931087263447.6768380082590.036160311615431161114126DRYL
2025-02-01 15:00:02FORECAST2025126-15817.63610.11213.874125.761974136220.1425197621.2225197621.512.732519762FF-14.36443.63634380.7465432210747.8834369210250.038689028540659161114126DRYL
2025-02-01 11:00:02FORECAST2025126-15816.979.62613.298129.250003657810.1657481211.2257481211.512.735748121FF-15.0341.9734382.6619375649.4590568293360.033047813642165161114126DRYL
2025-02-01 07:00:03FORECAST2025126-15816.9169.73413.325129.412156342230.1255906191.2255906191.512.735590619FF-15.08441.91634382.7505689377649.5325764674530.032621693796754161114126DRYL
2025-02-01 03:00:03FORECAST2025126-15817.27610.02213.649130.215564951860.1543307921.3543307921.512.864330792FF-14.72443.27634383.1891676499949.8971939489740.035549675008225161114126DRYL
2025-01-31 23:00:02FORECAST2025126-15817.20410.7613.982120.369502686440.1610237091.3710237092.493.861023709TF-14.79639.20434377.7517561322345.4697910245670.034947493069905161114126DRYL
2025-01-31 19:00:02FORECAST2025126-15816.1969.66212.929120.240032579040.1452756691.3252756692.493.815275669TF-15.80436.19634377.6793475803445.4121770574920.027359601834635161114126DRYL
2025-01-31 15:00:03FORECAST2025126-15816.0529.66212.857120.276013333530.149606381.319606382.493.80960638TF-15.94836.05234377.6994728719745.4281868352140.026396799733659161114126DRYL
2025-01-31 11:00:02FORECAST2025126-15815.87210.00412.938129.609805673670.2299213841.3599213842.493.849921384TF-16.12836.87234382.8585531485449.6222226740840.02523317671908161114126DRYL
2025-01-31 07:00:03FORECAST2025126-15815.65610.68813.172130.11204148320.2259843741.3759843742.714.085984374TF-16.34439.65634383.132702096849.850178028790.023893730847857161114126WETL
2025-01-31 03:00:04FORECAST2025126-15816.53810.7613.649130.648165580680.2291339821.4191339822.734.149133982TF-15.46240.53834383.4249635437150.0937681248260.029763765537086161114126WETL
2025-01-30 23:00:02FORECAST2025126-15816.2510.41813.334132.224709265370.2622048661.5422048662.654.192204866TF-15.7531.2534384.282094572850.8115882307770.027728104004693161115127.5WETL
2025-01-30 19:00:02FORECAST2025126-15816.55610.41813.487130.923678716410.2421261151.4821261152.53.982126115TF-15.44432.55634383.5750013912650.2190502457970.029894996296998161114126DRYL
2025-01-30 15:00:02FORECAST2025126-15815.0089.91412.461130.348580148390.2354331981.4654331982.313.775433198TF-16.99229.00834383.2616972979749.9576180680510.020228103164082161114126DRYL
2025-01-30 11:00:02FORECAST2025126-15815.47610.59813.037131.637195304560.2673229791.5673229792.494.057322979TF-16.52433.47634383.9630777055350.5438226496620.022823547121536161115127.5WETL
2025-01-30 07:00:03FORECAST2025126-15815.2069.53612.371131.976644127230.2492127331.5292127332.574.099212733TF-16.79434.20634384.1474546256650.6984919115110.021294000471917161115127.5WETL
2025-01-30 03:00:04FORECAST2025126-15816.5210.6713.595131.745430067370.2456694241.5556694242.534.085669424TF-15.4838.5234384.0218843682950.5931283113830.029633011765694161115127.5WETL
2025-01-29 23:00:02FORECAST2025126-15816.9169.15813.037129.932447074720.1543307921.2143307922.143.354330792TF-15.08431.91634383.0347093930449.7686371059920.032621693796754161114126DRYL
2025-01-29 19:00:02FORECAST2025126-15819.18411.13815.161129.034958746080.1452756691.1352756692.213.345275669TF-12.81636.18434382.5443393866849.3615930513070.054840063504928161114126DRYL
2025-01-29 15:00:02FORECAST2025126-15818.0512.8315.44128.024531281730.1685040281.0785040282.13.178504028FF-13.9537.0534381.9909222857248.9042087795070.042573781827795161114126DRYL
2025-01-29 11:00:02FORECAST2025126-15819.11212.0215.566129.438398787840.2110237361.2210237362.313.531023736TF-12.88838.11234382.7649094198149.5444769874730.053986376325969161114126DRYL
2025-01-29 07:00:04FORECAST2025126-15819.05812.3815.719130.281115554910.2019686131.1719686132.563.731968613TF-12.94234.05834383.2249137124149.9269692668890.053353018800683161114126DRYL
2025-01-29 03:00:04FORECAST2025126-15817.7811.28214.531130.108584670040.1956693971.0956693972.493.585669397TF-14.2231.7834383.1308163660549.8486082608640.040006228227952161114126DRYL
2025-01-28 23:00:02FORECAST2025126-15818.149.4113.775131.424715570980.1866142741.0566142742.53.556614274TF-13.8624.1434383.847585101750.44705969460.043458576531456161114126DRYL
2025-01-28 19:00:03FORECAST2025126-15817.0789.57213.325131.08164972590.2027560151.0527560152.43.452756015TF-14.92224.07834383.6609812669850.2909143599330.033913775138717161114126DRYL
2025-01-28 15:00:02FORECAST2025126-15820.76811.17415.971131.470557414170.2157481481.1457481482.453.595748148TF-11.23230.76834383.8725075460950.4679325430590.076438928133811161114126DRYL
2025-01-28 11:00:03FORECAST2025126-15824.6214.3619.49129.554049487820.0850394160.9850394162.433.415039416TF-7.3836.6234382.8280966691449.5969301812030.15479049487327161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-28 07:00:03FORECAST2025126-15823.9912.86618.428128.906028805750.0574803460.9674803462.293.257480346TF-8.0135.9934382.4738027246949.3031790314740.13925748244562161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-28 03:00:04FORECAST2025126-15825.48413.13619.31132.886267972630.4496065421.3896065422.453.839606542TF-6.51637.48434384.6407479551.1134735052750.17788166974775161114126DRYL
2025-01-27 23:00:03FORECAST2025126-15826.4212.84819.634137.591997903130.5976381181.8376381182.163.997638118TF-5.5827.4234387.1745677065653.2721223080250.20521529748123161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-27 19:00:02FORECAST2025126-15825.28612.68618.986138.82573258030.6157483641.9357483642.234.165748364TF-6.71424.28634387.8338814797153.8413227158830.17240736521306161115127.5WETL
2025-01-27 15:00:02FORECAST2025126-15825.50214.14419.823134.561813388390.2594489591.4194489592.123.539448959TF-6.49822.50234385.5464262792551.8798262655470.17838469973361161114126DRYL
2025-01-27 11:00:03FORECAST2025126-15825.48415.06220.273132.051492209430.1992127061.0892127062.213.299212706TF-6.51628.48434384.1880881419850.7326103282360.17788166974775161114126DRYL
2025-01-27 07:00:04FORECAST2025126-15824.99814.9919.994132.152313859470.2177166531.2477166532.143.387716653TF-7.00231.99834384.2428099753850.7785764221110.16463834051741161114126DRYL
2025-01-27 03:00:04FORECAST2025126-15816.798.76212.776133.010088534450.1145669911.3945669911.973.364566991TF-15.2125.7934384.7078083402851.1700196472370.031644967177781161114126DRYL
2025-01-26 23:00:02FORECAST2025126-15819.769.19414.477142.203497853370.4228348742.5528348741.784.332834874TF-12.2423.7634389.628439507355.4065269610870.06205769645454161115127.5WETL
2025-01-26 19:00:02FORECAST2025126-15819.29210.59814.945142.494288853980.3692915382.5692915381.764.329291538TF-12.70822.29234389.7822139891955.5417393903220.056140491601926161115127.5WETL
2025-01-26 15:00:02FORECAST2025126-15819.16610.43614.801142.588290028320.3673230332.5573230331.744.297323033TF-12.83418.16634389.8318988808655.5854638599140.054625651161447161115127.5WETL
2025-01-26 11:00:03FORECAST2025126-15817.7087.75412.731131.014600080240.0956693431.2556693431.492.745669343FF-14.29213.70834383.6244919481550.2604093935740.03934315707807161114126DRYL
2025-01-26 07:00:04FORECAST2025126-15818.21210.09414.153131.835003703220.1106299811.4106299811.412.820629981FF-13.78817.21234384.0705397478450.6339410299540.044177015305761161114126DRYL
2025-01-26 03:00:04FORECAST2025126-15816.6828.0612.371131.076407543630.0897638281.3197638281.282.599763828FF-15.31812.68234383.6581286248250.2885292250520.030827071502647161114126DRYL
2025-01-25 23:00:03FORECAST2025126-15817.516.74612.128134.134309122290.2984253581.2884253581.272.558425358FF-14.493.5134385.3157146124751.6840571735050.037565576699951161114126DRYL
2025-01-25 19:00:03FORECAST2025126-15819.1489.3214.234134.219908211470.3086615841.3086615841.272.578661584FF-12.8523.14834385.3619300220351.7232428757520.05441190000772161114126DRYL
2025-01-25 15:00:03FORECAST2025126-15828.32816.8822.604129.155074366050.1311024330.9011024331.172.071102433FF-3.67214.32834382.6100330146949.416027267210.26807009038313162113126DRYL
2025-01-25 11:00:03FORECAST2025126-15827.24814.25220.75122.5040457436300.570.721.29FF-4.75223.24834378.9421127147246.4219419101920.23135399133761161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-25 07:00:04FORECAST2025126-15844.9621.41633.188120.3435865949200.450.591.04FF12.9650.9634377.7372639848745.4582571384930.87772119608049165112127DRYL
2025-01-25 03:00:04FORECAST2025126-15844.9620.7532.855122.880006766390.1893701810.6193701810.781.399370181FF12.9644.9634379.1511047746646.5900903201940.877721196080491651131210.5DRYL
2025-01-24 23:00:03FORECAST2025126-15820.26418.62619.445125.504731874390.019685050.469685050.881.34968505FF-11.73611.26434380.6046097989847.7676795029790.068960724336342161112123DRYL
2025-01-24 19:00:02FORECAST2025126-15820.17418.84219.508126.120567619040.0224409570.5924409570.851.442440957FF-11.82615.17434380.9442425009448.0449040954240.067686574907965161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-24 15:00:02FORECAST2025126-15826.1519.77822.964133.592789117570.2866143281.2166143281.152.366614328FF-5.8525.1534385.0231120731551.4363114165780.19708593566137161114126DRYL
2025-01-24 11:00:03FORECAST2025126-15817.5113.53215.521133.667633936510.0531496351.1131496351.132.243149635FF-14.490.5134385.063577366351.4705373016830.037565576699951161114126DRYL
2025-01-24 07:00:05FORECAST2025126-15820.58818.42819.508130.355271979730.1944882940.9244882940.941.864488294FF-11.41213.58834383.2653455281949.9606583567320.073700563323588161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-24 03:00:04FORECAST2025126-15820.55220.26420.408129.039269463340.0307086780.9307086781.011.940708678FF-11.44819.55234382.5466973506849.3635463617460.073161970960722161113124.5DRYL