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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 25, 2025

[ Monday, February 24, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, February 26, 2025 ]

DAY 148 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/26/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.05°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.44°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.25°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.342
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -50

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.67 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.13 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.71 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.84 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 154 in
SWE DAY: 56
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 411.78 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 63.23 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -136

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-26 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025148-13629.0499825.4400827.24503153.556123333331.674.135.719.84TT-2.95002-49.9500256411.77711292697 63.2308971384580.3423538298848416 21151210WETL
2025-02-26 03:00:02OBSERVATION2025148-13629.0499825.4400827.24503153.556123333331.674.135.719.84TT-2.95002-49.9500256411.77711292697 63.2308971384580.3423538298848416 21151210WETL
2025-02-25 11:00:01FORECAST2025148-13626.70821.223.954151.157028477562.6661431725.1261431725.7110.836143172TT-5.292-52.29256410.639473017962.0710425169780.258468240874131621151210WETL
2025-02-25 07:00:03FORECAST2025148-13626.47421.48823.981150.69365255712.6519699365.1119699365.7110.821969936TT-5.526-52.52656410.4189423354261.8475294991470.250709299805781621151210WETL
2025-02-25 03:00:02FORECAST2025148-13627.64421.81224.728150.395341362352.5023635564.9623635565.7110.672363556TT-4.356-51.35656410.2768321493461.7037242241630.290699617081321621151210WETL
2025-02-24 23:00:01FORECAST2025148-13627.3221.25424.287151.423218481072.5665368195.5965368195.7111.306536819TT-4.68-54.6856410.7660413012862.1995160165670.279332446953691621151210WETL
2025-02-24 19:00:01FORECAST2025148-13627.33821.5624.449151.290862771522.5685053245.5985053245.7111.308505324TT-4.662-54.66256410.703119375662.135629273290.279958257201771621151210WETL
2025-02-24 15:00:01FORECAST2025148-13628.00422.69425.349150.983872674052.5259856165.5559856165.7111.265985616TT-3.996-53.99656410.5570947761861.9875001231140.303577527180661621151210WETL
2025-02-24 11:00:02FORECAST2025148-13628.32823.48625.907155.29142924452.5342533375.5642533375.7111.274253337TT-3.672-53.67256412.595677189564.0725724108610.315380438006151621151210WETL
2025-02-24 07:00:04FORECAST2025148-13628.27422.67625.475155.268169856092.5834659625.5034659625.7111.213465962TT-3.726-53.72656412.5847293004564.0612758290520.313399725061761621151210WETL
2025-02-24 03:00:02FORECAST2025148-13628.63423.21625.925154.635119506222.460631255.310631255.7111.02063125TT-3.366-52.36656412.2865123077563.7539741015130.32670347077181621151210WETL
2025-02-23 23:00:02FORECAST2025148-13628.29223.01825.655162.661508595832.5480328726.0880328725.7111.798032872TT-3.708-55.70856416.0323071807667.6724427106280.314059369177451621151210WETL
2025-02-23 19:00:02FORECAST2025148-13628.23823.0925.664162.333301005652.5476391715.9876391715.7111.697639171TT-3.762-55.76256415.8806304598467.5112755668570.312082226131861621151210WETL
2025-02-23 15:00:02FORECAST2025148-13628.99423.95426.474161.115565548392.3311036215.8111036215.7111.521103621TT-3.006-54.00656415.3167642185866.9139953488040.340231132740931621151210WETL
2025-02-23 11:00:02FORECAST2025148-13628.32824.94426.636163.138160274632.1594499855.5294499855.7111.239449985TT-3.672-55.67256416.2523602996567.9066442692560.315380438006151621151210WETL
2025-02-23 07:00:03FORECAST2025148-13628.41824.65626.537162.188761369451.9181112725.3181112725.7111.028111272TT-3.582-57.58256415.8137932974367.4403240952420.318693414993731621151210WETL
2025-02-23 03:00:02FORECAST2025148-13628.56224.6226.591163.78583957181.9551191665.4951191665.7111.205119166TT-3.438-54.43856416.5509441470168.2251461115420.32402433632171621151210WETL
2025-02-22 23:00:01FORECAST2025148-13628.43624.33226.384168.542458571131.9358278175.8158278176.0811.895827817TT-3.564-57.56456418.7287867586670.5735791948110.31935776280611621151210WETL
2025-02-22 19:00:02FORECAST2025148-13628.3123.43225.871166.367010330451.7507883475.4107883476.0811.490788347TT-3.69-58.6956417.7360110652669.4974912682940.314719607407751621151210WETL
2025-02-22 15:00:02FORECAST2025148-13628.29224.63826.465166.383325298431.7051190315.4151190316.0811.495119031TT-3.708-58.70856417.7434769096369.5055488099520.314059369177451621151210WETL
2025-02-22 11:00:01FORECAST2025148-13629.15624.51226.834164.691788653740.8240161934.8540161936.0810.934016193TT-2.844-56.84456416.9677686305368.671167626720.346387609009911621151210WETL
2025-02-22 07:00:03FORECAST2025148-13630.23624.81827.527174.248304504831.0377958365.1677958366.2511.417795836TT-1.764-54.76456421.3067618137273.411988922460.388401305324311621151210WETL
2025-02-22 03:00:04FORECAST2025148-13629.04824.13426.591171.392395348891.0220477964.9720477966.3411.312047796TT-2.952-55.95256420.0210953488571.9884216289060.342278665107861621151210WETL
2025-02-21 23:00:02FORECAST2025148-13630.05625.01627.536174.408406961150.9110241145.2210241146.3911.611024114TT-1.944-53.94456421.3785606623273.4919634926990.381292228810031621151210WETL
2025-02-21 19:00:02FORECAST2025148-13630.54225.55628.049174.692179499211.1007879965.2107879966.4711.680787996TT-1.458-52.45856421.5057483391473.6337578488080.400571743025741621151210WETL
2025-02-21 15:00:02FORECAST2025148-13628.68825.21426.951178.292846924971.0444887535.1644887536.4611.624488753TT-3.312-56.31256423.1116417114375.437779167830.328718707725291621151210WETL
2025-02-21 11:00:02FORECAST2025148-13628.81422.24425.529184.363760689881.3708668826.5808668826.2812.860866882TT-3.186-55.18656425.7862251424478.4995497172090.333440243596071621151210WETL
2025-02-21 07:00:03FORECAST2025148-13628.90423.23426.069177.588555108171.4102369826.8002369826.4313.230236982TT-3.096-53.09656422.7986827621275.0842071733640.336829042982461621151210WETL
2025-02-21 03:00:03FORECAST2025148-13628.65223.39626.024175.683128467281.4279535276.7479535276.4913.237953527TT-3.348-53.34856421.9491762109674.1293513309350.327374658923011621151210WETL
2025-02-20 23:00:03FORECAST2025148-13628.59822.38825.493174.317066414581.3826779125.4826779126.1711.652677912TT-3.402-54.40256421.3376020567473.4463347606860.32536277623041621151210WETL
2025-02-20 19:00:03FORECAST2025148-13629.9325.12427.527173.96018851661.3901582315.3901582316.2711.660158231TT-2.07-54.0756421.1774810029573.2681139942180.376339435590151621151210WETL
2025-02-20 15:00:02FORECAST2025148-13631.24425.84428.544177.191231103951.1059061095.2959061096.211.495906109TT-0.756-50.75656422.6218807930674.884891349190.428840856490041621151210WETL
2025-02-20 11:00:02FORECAST2025148-13631.62225.28628.454174.331641458310.8720477154.8120477156.1410.952047715TT-0.378-51.37856421.3441383836173.4536152632520.444225192219771621151210WETL
2025-02-20 07:00:03FORECAST2025148-13631.33424.99828.166176.275829304880.9169296295.1269296296.1411.266929629TT-0.666-53.66656422.2138638722374.4260989980960.43249490412281621151210WETL
2025-02-20 03:00:03FORECAST2025148-13631.26226.20428.733170.314362829360.8129925654.7929925655.9510.742992565TT-0.738-48.73856419.5333594145671.4525567943530.429571188738251621151210WETL
2025-02-19 23:00:03FORECAST2025148-13631.87427.57229.723170.853718613041.2972447955.0872447956.3711.457244795TT-0.126-53.12656419.7775479328871.7205550545960.454529789798121621151210WETL
2025-02-19 19:00:03FORECAST2025148-13632.57628.63430.605169.597604571781.2960636924.9360636926.2811.216063692TT0.576-51.42456419.2083354037271.0967295009950.4833755028591621151210WETL
2025-02-19 15:00:03FORECAST2025148-13632.23428.59830.416169.771917566731.094488784.664488786.2610.92448878TT0.234-51.76656419.287434520971.1832317702480.469302169941151621151210WETL
2025-02-19 11:00:02FORECAST2025148-13635.1527.89631.523178.614407361331.1976384425.3776384426.5611.937638442TT3.15-49.8556423.2543441791575.5993238486680.588738611396351631151212.5WETL
2025-02-19 07:00:04FORECAST2025148-13635.20427.71631.46177.807234629641.0523627734.8923627736.811.692362773TT3.204-47.79656422.8959150795175.1939531964580.590908084540471631151212.5WETL
2025-02-19 03:00:04FORECAST2025148-13635.49228.11231.802176.885037144891.0362210324.9162210326.6211.536221032TT3.492-45.50856422.4855082520574.7313648203420.602430096709311631151212.5WETL
2025-02-18 23:00:02FORECAST2025148-13635.13228.77831.955176.407085219090.6763783184.0763783187.4411.516378318TT3.132-46.86856422.2724261144674.4918478592430.588014846835151631151212.5WETL
2025-02-18 19:00:02FORECAST2025148-13634.44827.75231.1173.554769702690.2688977833.9488977837.2211.168897783TT2.448-46.55256420.9954048208473.0657605295740.560311887395541631151212.5WETL
2025-02-18 15:00:02FORECAST2025148-13634.44827.75231.1173.258791314990.2688977833.9488977837.1311.078897783TT2.448-45.55256420.8623605771572.9181039035690.560311887395541631151212.5WETL
2025-02-18 11:00:03FORECAST2025148-13633.94428.50831.226172.374256836440.6381893213.9581893216.5110.468189321TT1.944-43.05656420.4641598463472.4771970798720.539700434884381631151212.5WETL
2025-02-18 07:00:04FORECAST2025148-13634.01628.99431.505173.911301169970.7354334684.3654334686.6911.055433468TT2.016-43.98456421.1555353230373.2437071429620.542652788018491631151212.5WETL
2025-02-18 03:00:03FORECAST2025148-13634.01628.99431.505175.010598176660.7874024.4474026.4410.887402TT2.016-43.98456421.6483554120373.7929309008660.542652788018491631151212.5WETL
2025-02-17 23:00:02FORECAST2025148-13637.05828.432.729160.743123191480.7488193024.0788193025.549.618819302TT5.058-46.94256415.1439580979766.731536398740.663293076965871631151212.5WETL
2025-02-17 19:00:03FORECAST2025148-13637.14828.36432.756164.727088078280.531496354.111496355.569.67149635TT5.148-49.85256416.9839903845668.6885585113080.666681393842771631151212.5WETL
2025-02-17 15:00:02FORECAST2025148-13638.28226.99632.639158.177223425860.413386054.413386055.6410.05338605TT6.282-51.71856413.9489766905365.4772997728830.708139007587461641151215WETL
2025-02-17 11:00:03FORECAST2025148-13636.53627.71632.126161.033006193350.2838584214.6838584215.9710.653858421TT4.536-57.46456415.2784723601766.8735408115390.643386334044211631151212.5WETL
2025-02-17 07:00:04FORECAST2025148-13636.89628.2232.558153.8378203750.2688977834.2588977835.9810.238897783TT4.896-56.10456411.9102381723963.3673732305860.65716075596431631151212.5WETL
2025-02-17 03:00:04FORECAST2025148-13637.32826.94232.135173.173581460760.2688977834.2788977836.1610.438897783TT5.328-58.67256420.8240396376672.8756061088390.673417176105011631151212.5WETL
2025-02-16 23:00:02FORECAST2025148-13636.62626.18631.406167.769218173560.2082678294.7182678296.1610.878267829TT4.626-64.37456418.3765432161370.1907055575290.646848351443991631151212.5WETL
2025-02-16 19:00:02FORECAST2025148-13636.78826.70831.748167.344991893010.2751969994.4551969996.3310.785196999TT4.788-66.21256418.1829961944569.9808301079530.653049305971971631151212.5WETL
2025-02-16 15:00:03FORECAST2025148-13635.56425.73630.65166.300161366290.2720473914.4420473916.2910.732047391TT3.564-64.43656417.7054172768469.464478296710.605297116136231631151212.5WETL
2025-02-16 11:00:02FORECAST2025148-13638.76828.90433.836173.47613297880.5259845363.2059845367.310.505984536TT6.768-61.23256420.9600668493873.0265245355260.725140726748661641151215WETL
2025-02-16 07:00:04FORECAST2025148-13639.59631.22635.411170.385631696710.3598427143.0098427147.3210.329842714TT7.596-61.40456419.5656449429271.4879574518390.752935421968011641151215WETL
2025-02-16 03:00:04FORECAST2025148-13639.59631.17235.384157.003125981270.3598427143.0098427147.4810.489842714TT7.596-58.40456413.3995777638664.9050259882640.752935421968011641151215WETL
2025-02-15 23:00:03FORECAST2025148-13635.72633.40434.565153.486499611350.0326771834.3026771836.610.902677183TT3.726-61.27456411.7441952533263.1971752647260.611726882613871631151212.5WETL
2025-02-15 19:00:03FORECAST2025148-13634.98827.531.244152.669748824804.346.4910.83TT2.988-61.01256411.3576054267162.8018622976660.582214150054051631151212.5WETL
2025-02-15 15:00:03FORECAST2025148-13633.85424.2629.057153.2367102939904.256.5410.79TT1.854-65.14656411.6260484595663.0762215372570.536006932394741631151212.5WETL
2025-02-15 11:00:03FORECAST2025148-13629.13824.47626.807160.3854387171803.327.7211.04TT-2.862-73.86256414.9778453942866.5564037914730.345701513122511621151210WETL
2025-02-15 07:00:05FORECAST2025148-13633.60227.24830.425158.092755103440.3901576913.3901576917.6711.060157691TT1.602-76.39856413.9095058492265.4360941432070.525649616441691631151212.5WETL
2025-02-15 03:00:04FORECAST2025148-13633.36833.22433.296162.096195839550.2141733443.2141733447.610.814173344TT1.368-77.63256415.7709768024167.3948936801640.516016409774071631151212.5WETL