MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 21, 2025

[ Thursday, February 20, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 22, 2025 ]

DAY 144 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/22/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.39°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.86°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.12°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.650
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -93

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.19 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.86 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.73 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.59 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 151 in
SWE DAY: 52
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 407.66 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 61.52 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -140

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-22 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025144-14037.3899226.8599232.12492150.921614166670.189999999999940.859999999999943.734.5899999999999TF5.38992-92.6100852407.65764879269 61.5243503831820.6500847295467316 3113127.5WETL
2025-02-22 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025144-14037.3899226.8599232.12492150.921614166670.189999999999940.859999999999943.734.5899999999999TF5.38992-92.6100852407.65764879269 61.5243503831820.6500847295467316 3113127.5WETL
2025-02-21 11:00:02FORECAST2025144-14036.66226.8731.766155.202688168270.4358270071.1058270073.734.835827007TF4.662-93.33852409.7151237249963.5888885853140.616983735983011631141210WETL
2025-02-21 07:00:03FORECAST2025144-14036.89627.1432.018154.916197754850.4976380641.1676380643.734.897638064TF4.896-93.10452409.5781344544563.4502872732060.627731455016941631141210WETL
2025-02-21 03:00:02FORECAST2025144-14037.34628.11232.729155.13706662970.5755908621.2455908623.734.975590862TF5.346-92.65452409.6837546987663.5571359498080.648116647311691631141210WETL
2025-02-20 23:00:02FORECAST2025144-14037.68827.51832.603155.251542133720.460630171.120630173.734.85063017TF5.688-94.31252409.7384739629263.6125299542610.663333234497071631141210WETL
2025-02-20 19:00:02FORECAST2025144-14036.64428.00432.324155.414440566030.5055120841.1655120843.734.895512084TF4.644-95.35652409.8163119513463.6913728567530.616153127264131631141210WETL
2025-02-20 15:00:01FORECAST2025144-14035.83428.3132.072155.430639730940.5043309811.1643309813.734.894330981TF3.834-96.16652409.8240506607863.6992143713320.578278892156381631141210WETL
2025-02-20 11:00:02FORECAST2025144-14036.1426.92431.532155.501113267320.5212601241.1812601243.734.911260124TF4.14-95.8652409.8577137660363.7333307718140.592692651494411631141210WETL
2025-02-20 07:00:03FORECAST2025144-14035.20427.91431.559155.463694510080.5582680181.2182680183.734.948268018TF3.204-96.79652409.8398406926963.7152157915080.548292227120431631141210WETL
2025-02-20 03:00:03FORECAST2025144-14035.67226.99631.334154.846569117670.3606301161.0306301163.734.760630116TF3.672-95.32852409.5448255181663.4166111313810.570604100811691631141210WETL
2025-02-19 23:00:02FORECAST2025144-14035.02427.03231.028154.579599754140.4649608811.5949608813.735.324960881TF3.024-100.97652409.4170581483363.2875249810880.539665969294111631151212.5WETL
2025-02-19 19:00:02FORECAST2025144-14035.47427.21231.343154.557240654970.4834648281.6134648283.735.343464828TF3.474-100.52652409.4063535000463.2767163035780.561187723175131631151212.5WETL
2025-02-19 15:00:02FORECAST2025144-14035.34827.51831.433153.973613194820.3153545011.4453545013.735.175354501TF3.348-100.65252409.1267207123762.994719442630.555177052326161631141210WETL
2025-02-19 11:00:01FORECAST2025144-14034.71826.83430.776158.049645313520.413386051.553386053.735.28338605TF2.718-100.28252411.071031215664.9696306822870.524960565806581631151212.5WETL
2025-02-19 07:00:03FORECAST2025144-14034.64627.01430.83157.737917119430.397638011.587638013.735.31763801TF2.646-99.35452410.9230433988464.8181449621090.521494773894241631151212.5WETL
2025-02-19 03:00:03FORECAST2025144-14035.22227.57231.397157.066477937780.3523623951.4023623953.735.132362395TF3.222-97.77852410.603890442664.492106899370.549153668409951631141210WETL
2025-02-18 23:00:01FORECAST2025144-14035.99627.80631.901160.382821851910.3968506081.8768506083.85.676850608TF3.996-99.00452412.1749555241766.1057824636530.585924068410451631151212.5WETL
2025-02-18 19:00:01FORECAST2025144-14036.0528.65232.351160.120844111640.4263781831.8063781833.85.606378183TF4.05-97.9552412.0513285948465.9780065519280.588465393797451631151212.5WETL
2025-02-18 15:00:01FORECAST2025144-14036.51828.9432.729159.788270553030.4145671531.7245671533.85.524567153TF4.518-97.48252411.89426904865.8158729018840.610324121726261631151212.5WETL
2025-02-18 11:00:02FORECAST2025144-14037.1328.74232.936159.524379384040.2090552311.5790552313.85.379055231TF5.13-95.8752411.7695506690865.687282019730.638380624458231631151212.5WETL
2025-02-18 07:00:03FORECAST2025144-14037.9428.56233.251158.694769375620.0834646121.5034646123.795.293464612TF5.94-95.0652411.3769213017865.283365652440.674378549733051631151212.5WETL
2025-02-18 03:00:03FORECAST2025144-14038.3928.52633.458158.140172143830.0834646121.3334646123.85.133464612TF6.39-94.6152411.1139853842765.0136364194040.693721816845181631141210WETL
2025-02-17 23:00:02FORECAST2025144-14037.74228.88633.314146.354844004350.1413386591.1913386593.484.671338659TF5.742-101.25852405.438066091859.3378249162920.66571238352931631141210WETL
2025-02-17 19:00:02FORECAST2025144-14037.92228.63433.278147.959864639410.1704725331.5804725333.55.080472533TF5.922-101.07852406.2210885664260.1044172779620.673594507670091631151212.5WETL
2025-02-17 15:00:02FORECAST2025144-14038.6628.1333.395147.904123342660.165354421.505354423.55.00535442TF6.66-102.3452406.1939481902160.0777598141690.705078435975391641151215WETL
2025-02-17 11:00:02FORECAST2025144-14037.18426.85232.018150.286326417790.141732361.391732363.534.92173236TF5.184-106.81652407.3504200494661.2191981939760.64082333065361631141210WETL
2025-02-17 07:00:03FORECAST2025144-14037.88627.91432.9150.240151428270.1358268451.3158268453.75.015826845TF5.886-106.11452407.3280702317161.1970309525950.672024124939981631141210WETL
2025-02-17 03:00:04FORECAST2025144-14037.43626.83432.135151.120537097930.137795351.327795353.865.18779535TF5.436-105.56452407.7537471711461.6199652761960.652145278616431631141210WETL
2025-02-16 23:00:02FORECAST2025144-14037.6727.33832.504147.843684128680.1070866721.5770866723.875.447086672TF5.67-111.3352406.1645160608860.0488584167830.662538724881921631151212.5WETL
2025-02-16 19:00:02FORECAST2025144-14037.5827.2332.405148.733741674650.1204725061.7304725063.915.640472506TF5.58-113.4252406.5974917127960.4747662979690.658555366546191631151212.5WETL
2025-02-16 15:00:02FORECAST2025144-14037.77825.91631.847148.487017908060.1149606921.6949606923.915.604960692TF5.778-110.22252406.4775689967160.3566420668390.66729480235871631151212.5WETL
2025-02-16 11:00:02FORECAST2025144-14035.81627.3231.568153.774307744690.2496064341.9796064343.845.819606434TT3.816-113.18452409.0311327191462.898479279910.577427548424881631151212.5WETL
2025-02-16 07:00:03FORECAST2025144-14035.81627.0531.433153.486452760640.2031497161.8831497163.995.873149716TT3.816-114.18452408.8929904380862.7595346610310.577427548424881631151212.5WETL
2025-02-16 03:00:03FORECAST2025144-14035.81626.29431.055154.163729091010.2031497161.9131497164.126.033149716TT3.816-111.18452409.2178562611563.0865507318490.577427548424881631151212.5WETL
2025-02-15 23:00:02FORECAST2025144-14034.86225.80830.335153.165070276870.0216535551.4716535554.135.601653555TF2.862-113.13852408.7386388500262.6044823443370.5318862254021631141210WETL
2025-02-15 19:00:03FORECAST2025144-14034.91626.11430.515152.667239642450.0216535551.4516535554.035.481653555TF2.916-112.08452408.4992949440562.3644597549950.534480974969981631141210WETL
2025-02-15 15:00:02FORECAST2025144-14034.7925.6130.2152.90804334520.0216535551.4616535554.095.551653555TF2.79-112.2152408.6151048367262.4805361618760.528424470016281631141210WETL
2025-02-15 11:00:02FORECAST2025144-14034.50227.9531.226159.189462184321.1582683422.5382683423.976.508268342TT2.502-114.49852411.6111440474665.5241566499870.514558573545041631151212.5WETL
2025-02-15 07:00:04FORECAST2025144-14031.67626.1528.913158.562538241341.157480942.527480943.926.44748094TT-0.324-121.32452411.3142638180865.2190336858620.380159413908661621151210WETL
2025-02-15 03:00:03FORECAST2025144-14031.67626.1528.913160.026180716241.157480942.527480943.856.37748094TT-0.324-122.32452412.0066368337965.9318485222560.380159413908661621151210WETL
2025-02-14 23:00:02FORECAST2025144-14037.27426.45631.865156.120404586820.1834646661.6834646663.985.663464666TF5.274-122.72652410.1532717558764.0332947291330.644881706574121631151212.5WETL
2025-02-14 19:00:02FORECAST2025144-14037.34626.54631.946156.423833882590.2740158961.9640158963.695.654015896TF5.346-122.65452410.2979143680664.1803727994810.648116647311691631151212.5WETL
2025-02-14 15:00:02FORECAST2025144-14037.56227.44632.504156.436590610650.2712599891.9312599893.795.721259989TF5.562-123.43852410.3039929691164.1865577740240.657756554661161631151212.5WETL
2025-02-14 11:00:02FORECAST2025144-14036.21225.46630.839155.01555359340.4870081371.8170081373.585.397008137TF4.212-119.78852409.6256540853263.4983475340950.596066728771761631151212.5WETL
2025-02-14 07:00:04FORECAST2025144-14036.03225.55630.794151.80496035940.1826772641.4726772643.384.852677264TF4.032-119.96852408.0840169287361.9491780131690.587618691960661631141210WETL
2025-02-14 03:00:04FORECAST2025144-14036.03227.51831.775151.543091566170.1826772641.4726772643.454.922677264TF4.032-115.96852407.9577194488661.8231740335640.587618691960661631141210WETL
2025-02-13 23:00:03FORECAST2025144-14034.75423.19828.976157.599932289730.1952756961.7952756963.85.595275696TF2.754-125.24652410.857499955564.7511141737160.526692770205161631151212.5WETL
2025-02-13 19:00:02FORECAST2025144-14036.21226.38431.298157.870351043540.2732284942.0432284943.645.683228494TF4.212-120.78852410.9859285354164.8824928118390.596066728771761631151212.5WETL
2025-02-13 15:00:03FORECAST2025144-14036.21226.38431.298158.040556657870.2732284942.0432284943.695.733228494TT4.212-115.78852411.0667181844464.9652129653910.596066728771761631151212.5WETL
2025-02-13 11:00:03FORECAST2025144-14032.91826.0629.489149.731593811250.2657481750.6157481753.363.975748175TF0.918-119.08252407.0817424822660.9529981133320.43843110786318162113126DRYL
2025-02-13 07:00:03FORECAST2025144-14032.84625.93429.39149.555547812030.3074804810.5674804813.413.977480481TF0.846-123.15452406.9963977137760.8685692176050.43500319829093162113126DRYL
2025-02-13 03:00:04FORECAST2025144-14032.16225.98829.075149.59407248340.3074804810.5674804813.363.927480481TF0.162-121.83852407.0150772261360.8870429644030.40271659438495162113126DRYL
2025-02-12 23:00:02FORECAST2025144-14036.15826.67231.415149.7508835104200.183.233.41FF4.158-114.84252407.0910915532660.962250629320.5935368262105163112125DRYL
2025-02-12 19:00:03FORECAST2025144-14036.03225.35830.695152.5902469074800.513.393.9TF4.032-114.96852408.4622518272262.3273558586990.58761869196066163113127.5DRYL
2025-02-12 15:00:03FORECAST2025144-14033.20623.3628.283153.378776264200.553.433.98TF1.206-118.79452408.8412902724662.7075767882670.45218644990617162113126DRYL
2025-02-12 11:00:03FORECAST2025144-14033.22423.05428.139151.620511883560.015748040.445748043.273.71574804TF1.224-119.77652407.9950674713161.8604209759670.45304824325033162112124DRYL
2025-02-12 07:00:06FORECAST2025144-14033.51227.60830.56152.880303178810.3255907270.7055907273.293.995590727TF1.512-118.48852408.6017673488562.4671620716910.46686427477834162113126DRYL
2025-02-12 03:00:04FORECAST2025144-14033.58427.48230.533155.559675559330.3299214380.8999214383.314.209921438TF1.584-114.41652409.885682641563.7616838081260.4703251901208162113126WETL
2025-02-11 23:00:03FORECAST2025144-14026.99625.12426.06158.346328776850.0153543390.3953543393.954.345354339TF-5.004-122.00452411.211768007465.1138738138070.19193405280527161112123WETL
2025-02-11 19:00:03FORECAST2025144-14026.38421.9224.152156.183841373190.0153543390.2353543393.73.935354339TF-5.616-122.61652410.1835208434864.0640379533140.17238053085306161112123DRYL
2025-02-11 15:00:03FORECAST2025144-14024.76421.9223.342158.814476838070.0322834820.6322834823.724.352283482TF-7.236-126.23652411.4336263198465.3416161175780.12698239911711161113124.5WETL
2025-02-11 11:00:03FORECAST2025144-14029.0324.2626.645164.1917688769101.064.325.38TF-2.97-121.9752413.9631303394767.9693386202590.26602297978282162114128WETL
2025-02-11 07:00:04FORECAST2025144-14023.68421.7422.712163.3564225703901.014.255.26TF-8.316-129.31652413.5724425081567.5597146818290.10177706328626161114126WETL
2025-02-11 03:00:06FORECAST2025144-14023.84622.98223.414171.7198780771101.754.956.7TT-8.154-125.15452417.4468474011671.6839217394010.1053070358839161115127.5WETL