MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 19, 2025

[ Tuesday, February 18, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, February 20, 2025 ]

DAY 142 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/15/2025 03:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.06°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.21°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.63°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.321
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -131

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.28 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.45 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.37 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.82 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 152 in
SWE DAY: 50
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 406.74 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 61.83 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -142

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-15 15:00:02FORECAST2025142-14230.05625.21427.635152.022847546411.2791345492.4491345493.375.819134549TT-1.944-130.94450406.7417423131361.8340378824320.320896389392471621151210WETL
2025-02-15 11:00:02FORECAST2025142-14229.33625.03427.185152.459705888551.1106305212.1806305213.355.530630521TF-2.664-132.66450406.9537377362162.0440471655090.289149957192771621151210WETL
2025-02-15 07:00:04FORECAST2025142-14228.14824.1726.159152.247328066131.0649612052.0449612053.395.434961205TF-3.852-135.85250406.8507059604961.9419329043040.24025046611264161115127.5WETL
2025-02-15 03:00:03FORECAST2025142-14228.05823.25225.655152.369925975141.0649612052.0349612053.335.364961205TF-3.942-136.94250406.9101891981862.0008754066570.236738457567161115127.5WETL
2025-02-14 23:00:02FORECAST2025142-14227.5922.89225.241152.71598167921.0492131651.9392131653.545.479213165TF-4.41-143.4150407.0779919477862.1673151603040.21893810473466161115127.5WETL
2025-02-14 19:00:02FORECAST2025142-14227.21222.80225.007151.926491453041.1196856441.8996856443.365.259685644TF-4.788-142.78850406.6949516596561.7877370973150.20513955577398161115127.5WETL
2025-02-14 15:00:02FORECAST2025142-14227.17623.30625.241152.131650907451.106299811.886299813.465.34629981TF-4.824-143.82450406.7945636126861.8863285425720.20385286599726161115127.5WETL
2025-02-14 11:00:02FORECAST2025142-14228.20225.73626.969148.937772835380.6578743711.2178743713.474.687874371TF-3.798-139.79850405.2379247166160.3552339757240.2423712002744161114126WETL
2025-02-14 07:00:04FORECAST2025142-14228.0425.50226.771148.404140554880.7751972691.2751972693.334.605197269TF-3.96-139.9650404.976608474660.1002055255010.23603945418511161114126WETL
2025-02-14 03:00:04FORECAST2025142-14228.83226.40227.617148.785533738040.7751972691.3251972693.354.675197269TF-3.168-138.16850405.1634103315560.2824542573040.26784430393094162114128WETL
2025-02-13 23:00:03FORECAST2025142-14228.83225.32227.077153.92899532711.1275596642.0675596643.315.377559664TF-3.168-143.16850407.6650201885762.7514669876290.267844303930941621151210WETL
2025-02-13 19:00:02FORECAST2025142-14229.0326.76227.896152.197395182461.015748581.875748583.235.10574858TF-2.97-140.9750406.8264737327261.9179295933840.276119492426021621151210WETL
2025-02-13 15:00:03FORECAST2025142-14229.58826.83428.211152.299228770641.015748581.875748583.285.15574858TF-2.412-137.41250406.8758899065961.966884238140.300093138451951621151210WETL
2025-02-13 11:00:03FORECAST2025142-14229.6624.04426.852148.12808629080.3255907270.7155907273.424.135590727TF-2.34-138.3450404.8412874329159.9683651589390.30325379356668162113126WETL
2025-02-13 07:00:03FORECAST2025142-14229.64222.65826.15148.521597789350.2645670720.5945670723.534.124567072TF-2.358-142.35850405.0341569196360.1563201449650.30246223650463162113126WETL
2025-02-13 03:00:04FORECAST2025142-14229.4822.17225.826148.447156061180.2645670720.5945670723.484.074567072TF-2.52-139.5250404.9976860144260.1207547002020.29538028548299162113126WETL
2025-02-12 23:00:02FORECAST2025142-14231.62223.07227.347149.946404310420.1751969450.5951969453.263.855196945TF-0.378-138.37850405.730878576160.8378863601920.39435669490793162113126DRYL
2025-02-12 19:00:02FORECAST2025142-14231.80223.32427.563152.771794907480.5133861041.0733861043.284.353386104TF-0.198-138.19850407.1050420267862.1941679863150.40310664783906162114128WETL
2025-02-12 15:00:03FORECAST2025142-14232.4525.12428.787153.42492586420.5488191941.1388191943.294.428819194TF0.45-138.5550407.4212994235662.5085826595560.43497952608289162114128WETL
2025-02-12 11:00:03FORECAST2025142-14231.62227.19429.408151.551065803590.4334648010.8034648013.354.153464801TF-0.378-140.37850406.5125351692161.6074079674110.39435669490793162113126WETL
2025-02-12 07:00:05FORECAST2025142-14231.74826.4229.084150.719783795780.3807088670.8507088673.274.120708867TF-0.252-139.25250406.1080019740961.2085102552730.40047634784488162113126WETL
2025-02-12 03:00:04FORECAST2025142-14231.69427.57229.633152.851116652560.5082679910.9682679913.34.268267991TF-0.306-135.30650407.1434789946762.2323354021440.39785055242236162113126WETL
2025-02-11 23:00:03FORECAST2025142-14232.16227.39229.777158.252257255120.3783466611.3883466613.394.778346661TF0.162-137.83850409.7425789268364.8426880087030.42074861799492162114128WETL
2025-02-11 19:00:03FORECAST2025142-14232.10825.0728.589156.071227061840.220472561.200472563.174.37047256TF0.108-137.89250408.6973287309963.785893591940.41809122980457162114128WETL
2025-02-11 15:00:03FORECAST2025142-14231.9125.91628.913157.249442331120.4433073261.4633073263.154.613307326TF-0.09-139.0950409.2627028705864.3563317933260.40838030481549162114128WETL
2025-02-11 11:00:02FORECAST2025142-14230.88427.9529.417161.677251318110.7397641791.8297641793.685.509764179TF-1.116-138.11650411.3723522014666.5095511721990.359079704933271621151210WETL
2025-02-11 07:00:04FORECAST2025142-14230.84827.19429.021161.094535474770.7185043251.7185043253.75.418504325TF-1.152-138.15250411.0960685448266.2253301977310.357386499241261621151210WETL
2025-02-11 03:00:05FORECAST2025142-14234.14229.85832168.712720491271.3574810483.0274810483.736.757481048TT2.142-133.85850414.67601210469.9611181245360.519685792032931631151212.5WETL
2025-02-10 23:00:03FORECAST2025142-14233.92629.62431.775167.805757572631.311024332.681024333.255.93102433TT1.926-137.07450414.2534350469169.5141114951120.508841384901921631151212.5WETL
2025-02-10 19:00:02FORECAST2025142-14233.0827.62630.353166.740342863041.0889769662.4589769663.115.568976966TT1.08-140.9250413.7557862243668.9897816566170.466379594259381621151210WETL
2025-02-10 15:00:03FORECAST2025142-14232.5427.17629.858160.083165193710.2500001351.6100001353.044.650000135TF0.54-142.4650410.6155746639465.7326408700390.439444920584711621151210WETL
2025-02-10 11:00:03FORECAST2025142-14233.13427.80630.47167.390617099140.23622062.26622063.525.7862206TT1.134-147.86650414.0596855449369.3097062792420.469083629537591621151210WETL
2025-02-10 07:00:04FORECAST2025142-14232.03628.2230.128166.959728967610.4157482562.3957482563.35.695748256TT0.036000000000001-144.96450413.8583702913269.0976813348150.414553873434411621151210WETL
2025-02-10 03:00:04FORECAST2025142-14233.58425.75429.669166.530439221280.4425199241.9325199243.575.502519924TF1.584-139.41650413.6575825934568.8865789164990.491660891137251621151210WETL
2025-02-09 23:00:02FORECAST2025142-14226.6924.49425.592170.984373041670.0901575291.9301575293.935.860157529TT-5.31-148.3150415.7301698835471.0833624520460.18695664709475161115127.5WETL
2025-02-09 19:00:02FORECAST2025142-14233.06226.22229.642171.280452935280.2342520951.8642520954.035.894252095TT1.062-140.93850415.8671179144571.2299083172750.465478587703141621151210WETL
2025-02-09 15:00:02FORECAST2025142-14232.59428.97630.785175.160885062660.2665355772.7465355773.786.526535577TT0.594-135.40650417.6524752140573.1563772071040.442127897673311621151210WETL
2025-02-09 11:00:03FORECAST2025142-14233.60230.77632.189165.7171432730402.163.275.43TF1.602-128.39850413.2765864368.4870152848120.492565020794011621151210WETL
2025-02-09 07:00:04FORECAST2025142-14233.33231.08232.207167.751380307620.4681104892.3281104893.235.558110489TF1.332-120.66850414.2280683524169.4873302282770.479009685701071621151210WETL
2025-02-09 03:00:04FORECAST2025142-14233.45832.43232.945165.704286555650.0948819411.9548819413.245.194881941TF1.458-119.54250413.2705572578968.4807028448740.485333443064011621151210WETL