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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 18, 2025

[ Monday, February 17, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, February 19, 2025 ]

DAY 141 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/15/2025 03:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.94°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.24°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.59°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.390
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -136

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.21 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.33 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.58 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.91 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 146 in
SWE DAY: 49
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 403.17 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 58.95 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -143

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-15 15:00:02FORECAST2025141-14330.93824.24227.59146.227663067990.2055119222.3255119222.584.905511922TF-1.062-136.06249403.1685504036558.9543949480360.389941252704571621151210WETL
2025-02-15 11:00:02FORECAST2025141-14331.17224.5327.851147.3652312440.165354422.205354422.584.78535442TF-0.828-136.82849403.7303998641659.4958237362150.400950639418951621151210WETL
2025-02-15 07:00:04FORECAST2025141-14329.91223.41426.663147.194492236590.0881890242.1781890242.564.738189024TF-2.088-139.08849403.6461746972359.4144937278020.342809668394481621151210WETL
2025-02-15 03:00:03FORECAST2025141-14328.72423.0925.907147.090523271090.0846457152.1146457152.564.674645715TF-3.276-140.27649403.5948691451959.3649804920910.291181335795481621151210WETL
2025-02-14 23:00:02FORECAST2025141-14328.79623.66626.231147.10114338360.2114174372.1714174372.634.801417437TF-3.204-146.20449403.6001104720759.3700377201870.294205247064271621151210WETL
2025-02-14 19:00:02FORECAST2025141-14328.79623.55826.177145.852917911250.1960630981.8960630982.614.506063098TF-3.204-145.20449402.9831065043158.7762619525930.294205247064271621151210WETL
2025-02-14 15:00:02FORECAST2025141-14329.37223.86426.618146.188594534090.1913386861.9613386862.654.611338686TF-2.628-145.62849403.1492254493358.9358186559440.31890101104981621151210WETL
2025-02-14 11:00:02FORECAST2025141-14329.62424.11626.87145.592000617630.0440945121.7540945122.654.404094512TF-2.376-143.37649402.8538864316758.6523032821740.329972411129011621151210WETL
2025-02-14 07:00:04FORECAST2025141-14329.51623.91826.717144.467999923330.0440945121.5740945122.634.204094512TF-2.484-143.48449402.2962415867358.118933398710.325208559051351621151210WETL
2025-02-14 03:00:04FORECAST2025141-14330.1124.78227.446144.880078794160.0440945121.6440945122.634.274094512TF-1.89-141.8949402.5008690850458.3143576277580.351742834656111621151210WETL
2025-02-13 23:00:03FORECAST2025141-14330.59624.3527.473147.766927413030.3618112192.0018112192.624.621811219TF-1.404-147.40449403.9284116791159.6872602886480.374010392687121621151210WETL
2025-02-13 19:00:02FORECAST2025141-14330.95626.18628.571146.804638413630.3401576641.9201576642.544.460157664TF-1.044-145.04449403.4537237128159.2288780262930.3907851248951621151210WETL
2025-02-13 15:00:02FORECAST2025141-14331.26226.1528.706146.932081622980.3401576641.9401576642.574.510157664TF-0.738-141.73849403.5166569043859.2895423685050.405206574192751621151210WETL
2025-02-13 11:00:02FORECAST2025141-14331.13623.59427.365146.3630441378801.482.74.18TF-0.864-142.86449403.2355007959.0187754000880.39925152021491162114128WETL
2025-02-13 07:00:03FORECAST2025141-14330.5622.83826.699147.0641073561401.52.734.23TF-1.44-147.4449403.5818315283759.3524017988750.37234537946674162114128WETL
2025-02-13 03:00:04FORECAST2025141-14330.54222.53226.537146.9444492595501.492.694.18TF-1.458-144.45849403.5227631273359.2954301914370.37151376424538162114128WETL
2025-02-12 23:00:02FORECAST2025141-14330.68623.61227.149148.891763928060.0114173291.3614173292.694.051417329TF-1.314-145.31449404.4818140105460.224010764850.37818315689149162114128WETL
2025-02-12 19:00:02FORECAST2025141-14331.22623.75627.491149.682668729070.0133858341.5033858342.714.213385834TF-0.774-144.77449404.8699814302260.6020193087660.403502824701281621151210WETL
2025-02-12 15:00:03FORECAST2025141-14331.04624.69227.869150.133855292220.0377952961.5577952962.694.247795296TF-0.954-145.95449405.0910697995460.8178840534540.395012127880091621151210WETL
2025-02-12 11:00:02FORECAST2025141-14331.98223.93627.959149.410085802720.031496081.361496082.734.09149608TF-0.018000000000001-147.01849404.7362887679660.4716836322950.43961720067448162114128WETL
2025-02-12 07:00:05FORECAST2025141-14332.0924.83628.463149.771926549220.0204724521.4004724522.714.110472452TF0.090000000000003-145.9149404.91373924460.6447108128210.44482509921549162114128WETL
2025-02-12 03:00:04FORECAST2025141-14332.19825.37628.787149.923924982090.0318897811.4018897812.734.131889781TF0.198-141.80249404.9882322304760.7174253475510.450042538613162114128WETL
2025-02-11 23:00:02FORECAST2025141-14331.8225.728.76155.805142818160.1728347392.0528347392.724.772834739TF-0.18-145.1849407.848587197363.5449073764610.431825180904591621151210WETL
2025-02-11 19:00:03FORECAST2025141-14331.85625.73628.796154.556219732190.1539370911.9139370912.614.523937091TF-0.144-145.14449407.2447365403462.9422069855060.433554560738781621151210WETL
2025-02-11 15:00:03FORECAST2025141-14331.71225.95228.832154.368743129780.1389764531.9389764532.64.538976453TF-0.288-146.28849407.1539266820662.8518399222660.426645003301271621151210WETL
2025-02-11 11:00:02FORECAST2025141-14331.35226.83429.093157.062021359730.1106299812.2506299812.895.140629981TF-0.648-143.64849408.4543534551264.1526663868420.409473745935541621151210WETL
2025-02-11 07:00:04FORECAST2025141-14331.31625.41228.364156.480179780550.1114173832.1314173832.945.071417383TF-0.684-143.68449408.1741689873963.8711673449240.407765559890011621151210WETL
2025-02-11 03:00:05FORECAST2025141-14333.11624.87228.994160.460853143170.3421261692.9221261692.855.772126169TT1.116-142.88449410.0828045724765.802236681040.494648892730241621151210WETL
2025-02-10 23:00:03FORECAST2025141-14332.34226.20429.273158.947975213410.2960631522.3860631522.64.986063152TF0.342-145.65849409.359689096765.0668937159140.45701242336751621151210WETL
2025-02-10 19:00:02FORECAST2025141-14332.23424.15228.193158.738134214540.2814962152.3014962152.554.851496215TF0.234-148.76649409.2591710538164.9650372232730.45178365122591621151210WETL
2025-02-10 15:00:03FORECAST2025141-14330.4725.77228.121158.259140363230.2019686132.2319686132.544.771968613TF-1.53-149.5349409.0295225770664.732660626230.368193329559291621151210WETL
2025-02-10 11:00:03FORECAST2025141-14329.80427.1428.472165.665879593930.3488190863.5388190862.385.918819086TT-2.196-156.19649412.5495499237268.3453840641950.337973419456391621151210WETL
2025-02-10 07:00:04FORECAST2025141-14331.128.16629.633163.990351339270.3271655313.2671655312.385.647165531TT-0.9-151.949411.7590468018367.5245107521550.397554307002731621151210WETL
2025-02-10 03:00:04FORECAST2025141-14330.72227.21228.967163.271340636230.1720473373.1120473372.325.432047337TT-1.278-148.27849411.4187893549367.1728973009140.379856278831011621151210WETL
2025-02-09 23:00:02FORECAST2025141-14330.05626.9628.508170.004774494930.4358270073.4958270072.646.135827007TT-1.944-149.94449414.5810439759970.4807568910120.349298139335211621151210WETL
2025-02-09 19:00:02FORECAST2025141-14330.90227.19429.048169.275677718430.3685041363.2885041362.746.028504136TT-1.098-149.09849414.2412399904570.1209666383080.388255066859131621151210WETL
2025-02-09 15:00:02FORECAST2025141-14334.26827.39230.83172.845238210870.9137800213.6537800212.986.633780021TT2.268-142.73249415.8988898183271.8861426822860.55065301545611631151212.5WETL
2025-02-09 11:00:03FORECAST2025141-14338.3927.60832.999165.728951273040.610236553.390236552.415.80023655TT6.39-136.6149412.579241070268.3763249395890.73593427344921641151215WETL
2025-02-09 07:00:04FORECAST2025141-14338.8427.55433.197163.86539385650.5484254933.0384254932.425.458425493TT6.84-129.1649411.6999577745567.4633757314320.753593189254751641151215WETL
2025-02-09 03:00:04FORECAST2025141-14338.8427.06832.954164.918616529610.5456695863.0356695862.435.465669586TT6.84-128.1649412.1974117567867.9790268840160.753593189254751641151215WETL
2025-02-08 23:00:03FORECAST2025141-14330.1125.57427.842163.987794812560.4007876183.0307876182.355.380787618TT-1.89-146.8949411.7578380771367.5232598630540.351742834656111621151210WETL
2025-02-08 19:00:03FORECAST2025141-14331.04625.73628.391160.686019880860.3374017572.5974017572.364.957401757TF-0.954-145.95449410.190190931565.9118291749510.395012127880091621151210WETL
2025-02-08 15:00:02FORECAST2025141-14331.04627.91429.48154.831373524370.0185039472.4785039471.714.188503947TF-0.954-146.95449407.3779371661963.0748855549640.395012127880091621151210WETL
2025-02-08 11:00:02FORECAST2025141-14332.19830.2931.244156.8261658393702.441.874.31TF0.198-147.80249408.3408276774864.0385263603340.4500425386131621151210WETL
2025-02-08 07:00:05FORECAST2025141-14332.993232.495167.050094117990.6374019193.8574019191.965.817401919TT0.99-146.0149413.2000802062869.0251122880180.4885098830331621151210WETL
2025-02-08 03:00:05FORECAST2025141-14333.02632.66632.846165.650892837350.1346457422.9646457422.835.794645742TT1.026-142.97449412.5424941721568.3380324929620.49026367167441621151210WETL