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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 13, 2025

[ Wednesday, February 12, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, February 14, 2025 ]

DAY 136 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/06/2025 07:00:03 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 19.42°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 8.58°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 14.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.051
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -83

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.18 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.30 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.98 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.28 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 142 in
SWE DAY: 44
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 397.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 56.48 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -148

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-06 19:00:03FORECAST2025136-14819.4188.58214142.141507377660.181102460.301102462.983.28110246FF-12.582-82.58244397.362700217256.4817331845280.051491132948862161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 15:00:03FORECAST2025136-14816.8266.13411.48140.623620972550.070866180.070866183.073.14086618FF-15.174-85.17444396.5880500551755.7696476332010.027801508831733161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-06 11:00:03FORECAST2025136-14815.0985.64810.373142.964551832140.3169293050.3169293052.983.296929305FF-16.902-90.90244397.7814921412856.8686527510970.017714989722348161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 07:00:03FORECAST2025136-14815.447.12411.282144.00549965490.3212600160.3212600163.093.411260016FF-16.56-91.5644398.3099080952157.358817332750.019417274256687161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 03:00:04FORECAST2025136-14815.7286.63811.183144.145421215790.3212600160.3212600163.13.421260016FF-16.272-91.27244398.3808299629157.4247725393010.020956468012916161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 23:00:03FORECAST2025136-14816.165.07210.616148.898976289850.4885829410.5385829413.64.138582941TF-15.84-96.8444400.7753455689459.6750386774260.023457654512243161113124.5WETL
2025-02-05 19:00:03FORECAST2025136-14815.4947.55611.525154.546483945690.8405516351.1005516353.464.560551635TF-16.506-93.50644403.5828490800762.3723103061070.019698344922467161114126WETL
2025-02-05 15:00:02FORECAST2025136-14819.25611.35415.305154.753949744331.0488194641.2388194643.54.738819464TF-12.744-95.74444403.6852200786162.4718822605730.049648148036863161114126WETL
2025-02-05 11:00:02FORECAST2025136-14817.4027.59212.497150.277984249580.4759845090.4759845093.483.955984509TF-14.598-104.59844401.4646023686760.3312911915220.032078915094166161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 07:00:04FORECAST2025136-14818.87811.60615.242151.862898573050.5098427950.7198427953.444.159842795TF-13.122-95.12244402.2537992941461.0874279228310.045551713768332161113124.5WETL
2025-02-05 03:00:04FORECAST2025136-14817.7629.513.631146.7465471949400.23.423.62FF-14.238-97.23844399.6946801926258.6538142504550.035017504062254161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 23:00:05FORECAST2025136-14816.8628.612.731148.485588057100.193.353.54FF-15.138-102.13844400.5682547728559.4786128669550.028054199996446161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 19:00:04FORECAST2025136-14819.0949.26614.18148.5009368831900.23.43.6FF-12.906-87.90644400.5759478019259.4859035414570.047858014654568161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 15:00:03FORECAST2025136-14825.62819.77822.703158.651888970070.7251972421.4551972423.284.735197242TF-6.372-64.37244405.5986074671164.3489852382860.17035330428057161114126WETL
2025-02-04 11:00:03FORECAST2025136-14835.45620.69628.076155.838205297880.4279529871.1079529873.34.407952987TF3.456-54.54444404.2193535092762.9928185975540.54698911408541631141210WETL
2025-02-04 07:00:05FORECAST2025136-14828.52618.19423.36159.395366317540.6011814271.3311814273.34.631181427TF-3.474-70.47444405.961412984764.7083681334820.26208166612022162114128WETL
2025-02-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025136-14828.417.83423.117156.360390214810.4129923491.0229923493.284.302992349TF-3.6-74.644404.4760714879763.2440363704110.25762980685414162114128WETL
2025-02-03 23:00:04FORECAST2025136-14814.324-0.9226.701151.250041584240.1263780210.5863780213.43.986378021TF-17.676-106.67644401.9490081488460.7948041972580.014326056551238161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 19:00:03FORECAST2025136-14819.97618.519.238149.645157073160.1283465260.5683465263.333.898346526TF-12.024-93.02444401.1486019387660.0299455468030.05825702599847161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 15:00:03FORECAST2025136-14816.1614.70215.431143.05709879899003.33.3FF-15.84-92.8444397.8285283294156.9121950822790.023457654512243161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-03 11:00:04FORECAST2025136-14826.1525.55625.853149.891345957250.3929135980.6129135983.323.932913598TF-5.85-74.8544401.2715960175560.1471396214860.18516136906962161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 07:00:04FORECAST2025136-14828.09427.28427.689156.167154519810.7346460661.4146460663.214.624646066TF-3.906-71.90644404.3811121115363.1510476200150.24698367676852161114126WETL
2025-02-03 03:00:04FORECAST2025136-14828.16627.75227.959158.885956912820.2267717761.1367717763.724.856771776TF-3.834-80.83444405.7129029295664.4620828138390.24946731720715162114128WETL