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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 11, 2025

[ Monday, February 10, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, February 12, 2025 ]

DAY 134 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/12/2025 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 21.64°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 2.78°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 12.21°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.041
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -36

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.28 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.02 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 138 in
SWE DAY: 42
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 393.84 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 54.46 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -150

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-12 07:00:04OBSERVATION2025134-15021.639922.7780812.209138.277282500.283.023.3FF-10.36008-36.3600842393.83972937219 54.4590875181210.04118646396408516 1112123DRYL
2025-02-12 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025134-15021.639922.7780812.209138.277282500.283.023.3FF-10.36008-36.3600842393.83972937219 54.4590875181210.04118646396408516 1112123DRYL
2025-02-11 11:00:01FORECAST2025134-15016.5920.8248.70814000.283.023.3FF-15.408-41.40842394.7306856968655.262295997560.0085561991125941161112123DRYL
2025-02-11 07:00:02FORECAST2025134-15017.871.229.545139.7487362500.283.023.3FF-14.13-40.1342394.6009796385755.1449882275020.013200220734033161112123DRYL
2025-02-11 03:00:04FORECAST2025134-15017.9961.859.923139.7487362500.283.023.3FF-14.004-40.00442394.6009796385755.1449882275020.013758512458232161112123DRYL
2025-02-10 23:00:02FORECAST2025134-15018.6261.59810.11214100.273.023.29FF-13.374-44.37442395.2460809261555.7296974105870.016864835178003161112123DRYL
2025-02-10 19:00:01FORECAST2025134-15018.8422.35410.59814100.273.023.29FF-13.158-44.15842395.2460809261555.7296974105870.01805944539782161112123DRYL
2025-02-10 15:00:01FORECAST2025134-15018.7342.310.51714100.273.023.29FF-13.266-44.26642395.2460809261555.7296974105870.017453432228798161112123DRYL
2025-02-10 11:00:02FORECAST2025134-15018.4282.6610.544141.4246450203900.273.023.29FF-13.572-44.57242395.4645452704355.9284329330190.015829685736222161112123DRYL
2025-02-10 07:00:03FORECAST2025134-15018.2842.6610.472141.894334657300.293.023.31FF-13.716-42.71642395.7059091283356.1484266957270.015111449678084161112123DRYL
2025-02-10 03:00:03FORECAST2025134-15017.6722.3910.031141.805991421900.283.023.3FF-14.328-43.32842395.6605333379256.1070341965010.012362400126177161112123DRYL
2025-02-09 23:00:01FORECAST2025134-15018.051.7429.896141.4416813469200.113.023.13FF-13.95-44.9542395.4733049224355.9364091760520.014003936133597161112123DRYL
2025-02-09 19:00:01FORECAST2025134-15017.6720.9689.32141.2236051298400.073.023.09FF-14.328-46.32842395.3611469647355.8343265026260.012362400126177161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-09 15:00:01FORECAST2025134-15017.7980.869.329141.1821717376300.063.023.08FF-14.202-45.20242395.3398304888655.8149358428050.012890056776967161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-09 11:00:01FORECAST2025134-15018.3562.51610.436141.3880469293300.073.023.09FF-13.644-43.64442395.4457261676755.9112988893960.015466995578391161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-09 07:00:03FORECAST2025134-15018.7882.76810.778141.5989829415900.093.023.11FF-13.212-41.21242395.5541675537156.0100678239140.017754237290158161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-09 03:00:03FORECAST2025134-15018.8242.85810.841141.6696150704200.13.023.12FF-13.176-41.17642395.5904662744656.043149082630.017957217092463161112123DRYL
2025-02-08 23:00:02FORECAST2025134-15017.5822.3549.968135.4357669261800.072.892.96FF-14.418-49.41842392.3616069416753.1397951485340.011997036637563161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-08 19:00:02FORECAST2025134-15016.7362.6789.707135.3991376705900.072.892.96FF-15.264-50.26442392.3424831074953.1228338842920.0089955820803905161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-08 15:00:01FORECAST2025134-15017.6363.39810.517135.2643796945800.052.892.94FF-14.364-48.36442392.2721117567253.0604438682530.012215115583785161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-08 11:00:01FORECAST2025134-15017.0062.7329.869136.20933867696002.892.89FF-14.994-48.99442392.7650671222253.4982700481290.0098728655245921161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-08 07:00:04FORECAST2025134-15015.713.0749.392136.0893668874400.012.942.95FF-16.29-49.2942392.7025471682353.442641019210.0062534259546053161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-08 03:00:04FORECAST2025134-15015.3322.4448.888136.18294049300.012.952.96FF-16.668-49.66842392.7513120792553.4860285614380.0054476016587093161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-07 23:00:02FORECAST2025134-15016.8622.7869.824138.5915748589900.032.912.94FF-15.138-50.13842394.0025662099454.6054361495180.009396112775848161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-07 19:00:01FORECAST2025134-15018.1222.73210.427138.993909359700.042.963FF-13.878-47.87842394.2108286064954.7929041799420.014337021573808161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-07 15:00:01FORECAST2025134-15017.9423.3810.661138.7144833384500.052.912.96FF-14.058-49.05842394.0662105127654.6626907924170.013516802062479161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-07 11:00:02FORECAST2025134-15015.6382.0128.825139.3070292341800.122.872.99FF-16.362-51.36242394.3727631872554.9388980504910.0060922564263076161112123DRYL
2025-02-07 07:00:03FORECAST2025134-15015.4582.488.969138.7551293389500.142.832.97FF-16.542-50.54242394.0872533984154.6816278161270.0057053219658912161112123DRYL
2025-02-07 03:00:04FORECAST2025134-15016.3764.65810.517138.5161195430800.122.822.94FF-15.624-48.62442393.9634841958854.5702930724850.0079324012166173161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 23:00:02FORECAST2025134-15017.6184.33410.976138.8959615231500.052.842.89FF-14.382-55.38242394.1601469815654.747252609110.012142044460903161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-06 19:00:02FORECAST2025134-15018.2845.46811.876139.3357704446800.082.92.98FF-13.716-49.71642394.3876206775854.9523029809530.015111449678084161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-06 15:00:02FORECAST2025134-15017.64.83811.219139.8358423995600.092.983.07FF-14.4-49.442394.6459544940355.1856494962510.012069352002418161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-06 11:00:03FORECAST2025134-15016.4125.91811.165139.464830271680.0023622060.0923622062.892.982362206FF-15.588-52.58842394.4543235360555.0125052818870.0080335071649986161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 07:00:03FORECAST2025134-15016.3586.47611.417140.601252736990.0023622060.0823622063.013.092362206FF-15.642-52.64242395.0407254030755.5432208738010.0078822688432474161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-06 03:00:04FORECAST2025134-15016.1247.08811.606140.634000371540.0019685050.0619685053.043.101968505FF-15.876-51.87642395.0575983312555.5585304304990.0072554462171895161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-05 23:00:02FORECAST2025134-15016.887.35812.119142.474608759690.0448819140.1648819143.483.644881914FF-15.12-61.1242396.0037027222556.4204726127420.0094545852591754161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 19:00:02FORECAST2025134-15016.257.89812.074141.602441353330.0456693160.1456693163.363.505669316FF-15.75-61.7542395.5559450257256.0116875074660.007587282309958161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 15:00:02FORECAST2025134-15015.7827.62811.705141.4981837923300.123.383.5FF-16.218-64.21842395.502354350255.9628648261430.0064183579443731161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 11:00:02FORECAST2025134-15013.376.0089.689145.065635575800.123.363.48FF-18.63-66.6342397.3280615512557.6386477810340.0025714733377573161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 07:00:04FORECAST2025134-15013.5867.4310.508145.178866816910.0653543660.1753543663.333.505354366FF-18.414-61.41442397.3857392207857.6920113092740.0028009929868907161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 03:00:03FORECAST2025134-15013.4247.7910.607146.746547194940.1960630980.3960630983.223.616063098TF-18.576-60.57642398.1825810636358.4319189242590.0026272006937192161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 23:00:05FORECAST2025134-15017.04210.2213.631148.48558805710.1897638820.4497638823.093.539763882TF-14.958-64.95842399.0628201035459.25507751480.0099953008845255161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 19:00:03FORECAST2025134-15019.95811.4815.719148.500936883190.1952756960.4552756963.143.595275696TF-12.042-56.04242399.0705718223659.2623537981310.025438668691309161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 15:00:02FORECAST2025134-15024.74614.12619.436148.155033251250.2940946470.4440946473.133.574094647TF-7.254-48.25442398.8958044725159.0984211754080.0901423927969161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 11:00:03FORECAST2025134-15024.74616.1620.453148.294041638540.2374017030.6474017032.893.537401703TF-7.254-47.25442398.966056730259.1642890291130.0901423927969161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 07:00:05FORECAST2025134-15022.3714.918.635148.621484135730.2393702080.6893702082.853.539370208TF-9.63-53.6342399.1314420898359.3195072886260.050124842145282161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025134-15021.09212.75816.925146.749677722390.0409449040.3409449042.983.320944904FF-10.908-55.90842398.184169118358.4333984922670.035362810280404161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 23:00:03FORECAST2025134-15017.9788.61813.298144.182990764560.0188976480.1788976483.243.418897648FF-14.022-72.02242396.8778913143557.2230413380360.013677531948018161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 19:00:03FORECAST2025134-15021.00210.27415.638143.3259008740800.093.243.33FF-10.998-66.99842396.4397878064156.8200897296840.034473942808103161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 15:00:03FORECAST2025134-15019.9949.73414.864143.0570987989900.083.223.3FF-12.006-64.00642396.3021924149956.693841894570.025713508354295161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-03 11:00:03FORECAST2025134-15020.62411.315.962143.877566630700.113.213.32FF-11.376-61.37642396.7218824193857.0793790716510.030938384923044161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 07:00:04FORECAST2025134-15020.53414.0917.312144.695348979560.1570866990.2470866993.123.367086699FF-11.466-60.46642397.1393292961957.4642138460190.030142232382565161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 03:00:04FORECAST2025134-15017.22212.68614.954151.733753995390.3736222491.0036222493.094.093622249TF-14.778-68.77842400.6965460716460.7991911484340.010627536244532161114126WETL
2025-02-02 23:00:02FORECAST2025134-15015.898.13212.011143.58115799890.2059056230.4459056233.253.695905623TF-16.11-72.1142396.5703628249856.9400319224530.0066729710420852161112123DRYL
2025-02-02 19:00:03FORECAST2025134-15015.8369.55412.695144.623721722940.2555119490.4955119493.33.795511949TF-16.164-74.16442397.1028009357957.4304849779370.0065445700728232161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 15:00:03FORECAST2025134-15023.9913.24418.617141.989189179750.0763779940.2063779943.443.646377994TF-8.01-58.0142395.7546179811656.1928773212880.075432717225763161112123DRYL
2025-02-02 11:00:03FORECAST2025134-15032.70218.2325.466147.896920240240.3102363880.6802363883.464.140236388TF0.702-47.29842398.7652931419458.9761587543880.3726382589521162113126WETL
2025-02-02 07:00:05FORECAST2025134-15033.00817.81625.412147.139515504790.1346457420.5646457423.524.084645742TF1.008-45.99242398.3818274553258.6177090776880.38749337116052162113126WETL
2025-02-02 03:00:05FORECAST2025134-15027.93220.60624.269146.387413627190.1346457420.3746457423.533.904645742TF-4.068-52.06842398.00031586358.262236861990.17536577413443161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 23:00:03FORECAST2025134-15017.90614.61216.259128.0411764532700.0133.01FF-14.094-68.09442388.4646491686849.7394706900660.013357702701399161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-01 19:00:03FORECAST2025134-15016.5214.6315.575129.4232199448800.093.093.18FF-15.48-69.4842389.1985601173850.3713308483010.0083436479730238161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-01 15:00:03FORECAST2025134-15016.50214.61215.557129.9316270371700.093.163.25FF-15.498-68.49842389.4678936197250.6041970967510.0082912395017086161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-01 11:00:03FORECAST2025134-15019.77815.38617.582136.388926659400.013.623.63FF-12.222-72.22242392.858618796253.5815653465090.02410102500919161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-01 07:00:04FORECAST2025134-15022.49620.13821.317135.8790598532600.023.513.53FF-9.504-67.50442392.5929055386453.3451549096510.05181297496887161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-01 03:00:05FORECAST2025134-15022.53221.97422.253141.1321731100600.014.174.18TF-9.468-64.46842395.3141044199255.7915386178410.052303481727672161111121.5WETL