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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 10, 2025

[ Sunday, February 9, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, February 11, 2025 ]

DAY 133 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/06/2025 07:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 17.04°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 7.34°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 12.19°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.015
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -38

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.39 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.59 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.98 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 139 in
SWE DAY: 41
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 393.61 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 54.84 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -151

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-06 19:00:02FORECAST2025133-15117.0427.3412.191139.335770444680.0216535550.3916535552.592.981653555FF-14.958-37.95841393.6128024138254.8443430812170.014740307184724161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 15:00:02FORECAST2025133-15118.3927.75413.073139.835842399560.0377952960.4677952962.63.067795296FF-13.608-36.60841393.872119766355.0774396652220.022322052260412161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 11:00:02FORECAST2025133-15117.2047.71812.461139.447562440090.0452756150.3752756152.62.975275615FF-14.796-38.79641393.6708018694854.8964337245370.015514043839071161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 07:00:03FORECAST2025133-15116.7727.98812.38140.58398490540.0452756150.4652756152.623.085275615FF-15.228-39.22841394.2594621210355.4265662716350.013524341910324161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 03:00:03FORECAST2025133-15118.2849.64413.964140.616505186060.0279527710.4779527712.623.097952771FF-13.716-37.71641394.2762824428455.4417529148660.021613587190059161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 23:00:02FORECAST2025133-15117.788.67213.226142.093293082750.0696850770.4996850773.13.599685077TF-14.22-48.2241395.0386526734356.1323430533410.018553096470958161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-05 19:00:02FORECAST2025133-15117.969.12213.541141.204804105490.0464567180.4164567183.043.456456718FF-14.04-48.0441394.5803259203855.7166376254680.019600955658659161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 15:00:02FORECAST2025133-15116.6289.57213.1141.498183792330.0574803460.4474803463.053.497480346FF-15.372-50.37241394.7317801329755.8538299739280.012911913063421161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 11:00:02FORECAST2025133-15116.6468.83412.74145.06563557580.0303149770.4303149773.053.480314977FF-15.354-50.35441396.5644382197157.5278722771030.012987133128993161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 07:00:03FORECAST2025133-15117.339.06813.199144.422160727060.0185039470.4485039472.993.438503947FF-14.67-44.6741396.2351010541857.2251294501510.016139657449304161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 03:00:03FORECAST2025133-15118.03210.34614.189144.555237620370.1090551770.41905517733.419055177FF-13.968-43.96841396.3032553580657.2877112480120.020033923053193161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 23:00:04FORECAST2025133-15119.38212.79416.088146.55743138990.1539370910.3939370912.963.353937091FF-12.618-51.61841397.32588761458.231061513420.029773178209695161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 19:00:03FORECAST2025133-15121.9213.67617.798146.690454196810.1881890780.3881890783.013.398189078FF-10.08-46.0841397.3936457321958.2938543873820.058558731066238161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 15:00:02FORECAST2025133-15122.38813.06417.726145.680883677360.0940945390.2640945393.023.284094539FF-9.612-42.61241396.8788256626557.8176580353690.065704920660951161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 11:00:03FORECAST2025133-15123.84613.60418.725146.337639205480.3039371720.4539371722.853.303937172FF-8.154-42.15441397.213881411358.1273416653740.09230960079736161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 07:00:05FORECAST2025133-15122.2813.87418.077146.510772740210.3299214380.4899214382.813.299921438FF-9.72-45.7241397.3021155715758.2090399637130.06399876285631161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025133-15122.9114.03618.473146.354925667690.177165450.387165452.893.27716545FF-9.09-47.0941397.2226928664858.1354976879950.074450736975172161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 23:00:03FORECAST2025133-15119.38211.64215.512143.985560299580.1015748580.3515748583.053.401574858FF-12.618-59.61841396.0113376722657.0199143397270.029773178209695161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 19:00:03FORECAST2025133-15120.49811.42615.962143.325900874080.023622060.343622062.993.33362206FF-11.502-57.50241395.6727826131756.7101580193880.040525962335143161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 15:00:03FORECAST2025133-15121.34411.40816.376143.057098798990.0066929170.29669291733.296692917FF-10.656-53.65641395.5346633645756.5840414153720.050615202462696161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 11:00:03FORECAST2025133-15124.69214.95419.823143.87756663070.0874016220.2774016223.043.317401622FF-7.308-52.30841395.9559512249756.9691787551930.11100742096652161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 07:00:03FORECAST2025133-15125.50215.94420.723143.120671298590.0795276020.2595276022.953.209527602FF-6.498-51.49841395.56733749756.6138628863660.13130596447204161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 03:00:04FORECAST2025133-15121.88415.04418.464147.595065770430.4381892130.7781892132.943.718189213TF-10.116-56.11641397.8538229883958.7212611709880.058035257676445161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 23:00:02FORECAST2025133-15119.88611.26415.575140.731526115160.0425197080.4325197083.063.492519708FF-12.114-58.11441394.335763066255.4954737380920.034294725579007161112123DRYL
2025-02-02 19:00:03FORECAST2025133-15120.08412.07416.079141.106305131830.0425197080.4225197083.123.542519708TF-11.916-59.91641394.5294515373555.6705931721210.036218545926235161112123DRYL
2025-02-02 15:00:03FORECAST2025133-15122.89215.0818.986141.092637011950.0425197080.4325197083.143.572519708TF-9.108-52.10841394.5223909944855.6642045056720.07413510000106161112123DRYL
2025-02-02 11:00:03FORECAST2025133-15124.49419.0421.767145.188249534570.1401575560.8101575563.023.830157556TF-7.506-49.50641396.6271322941857.5855990557070.10640601856538161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 07:00:05FORECAST2025133-15124.20618.66221.434146.027669135730.1480315760.9180315763.033.948031576TF-7.794-48.79441397.0558142013657.9811350646140.099960608266328161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 03:00:05FORECAST2025133-15127.28413.9120.597144.989629993150.0188976480.6188976483.153.768897648TF-4.716-49.71641396.5255657958157.492095067560.18452303324552161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-01 23:00:02FORECAST2025133-15128.3111.49819.904128.0411764532700.042.973.01FF-3.69-55.6941387.6672807951149.6373747054470.22049976662172161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-01 19:00:03FORECAST2025133-15127.7710.90419.337129.4232199448800.153.033.18FF-4.23-56.2341388.4039859109750.2684944960230.20108766400078161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 15:00:03FORECAST2025133-15127.71610.65219.184129.9316270371700.153.13.25FF-4.284-55.28441388.6743448276750.5010900110670.19920437853824161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 11:00:03FORECAST2025133-15129.42612.21820.822136.388926659400.243.393.63TF-2.574-61.57441392.077979271953.4750947596820.26383374479882162112124DRYL
2025-02-01 07:00:04FORECAST2025133-15129.9312.18221.056135.8790598532600.273.263.53FF-2.07-60.0741391.8112543830753.23894488550.28473530200602162112124DRYL
2025-02-01 03:00:04FORECAST2025133-15131.02815.18823.108141.1321731100600.673.514.18TF-0.972-56.97241394.5428134920855.6826846530940.33281364654636162113126WETL
2025-01-31 23:00:03FORECAST2025133-15118.64415.47617.06135.3909187637401.034.575.6TF-13.356-65.35641391.5555709301953.01306849530.024051434928248161114126WETL
2025-01-31 19:00:04FORECAST2025133-15115.22410.95813.091132.5680383231100.794.415.2TF-16.776-77.77641390.0707405299251.7109128792920.0080916407722854161113124.5WETL
2025-01-31 15:00:07FORECAST2025133-15117.429.57213.496127.7131621823500.374.284.65TF-14.58-70.5841387.4920511048249.4878351671230.016599625335327161112123WETL
2025-01-31 11:00:03FORECAST2025133-15124.15221.39822.775131.289039316050.0244094620.0844094623.954.034409462TF-7.848-58.84841389.3944765717951.1232267440870.098784420594747161111121.5WETL
2025-01-31 07:00:05FORECAST2025133-15125.9725.35825.664132.236696622990.0582677480.1182677484.214.328267748TF-6.03-54.0341389.8957561557151.5585268213540.14413403338546161112123WETL
2025-01-31 03:00:05FORECAST2025133-15125.9725.80825.889137.938394792670.0169291430.0469291434.884.926929143TF-6.03-45.0341392.8864305801454.1941235700450.14413403338546161111121.5WETL