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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 1, 2025

[ Friday, January 31, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, February 2, 2025 ]

DAY 124 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/02/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.21°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.61°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 20.91°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.203
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 109

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.37 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.88 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.95 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 132 in
SWE DAY: 32
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 382.50 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 50.47 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -160

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-02 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025124-16025.2100416.6120.91002131.945274166670.371.880.071.95FF-6.78996109.2100432382.49958408212 50.4690124903510.2026084744825116 1115127.5DRYL
2025-02-02 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025124-16025.2100416.6120.91002131.945274166670.371.880.071.95FF-6.78996109.2100432382.49958408212 50.4690124903510.2026084744825116 1115127.5DRYL
2025-02-01 11:00:02FORECAST2025124-16017.70812.05614.882125.375486878320.6145672612.1245672610.072.194567261FF-14.292101.70832378.8749831811247.5016354823480.047143138731961161115127.5DRYL
2025-02-01 07:00:03FORECAST2025124-16017.5112.0214.765125.737655703820.6444885372.1544885370.072.224488537FF-14.49101.5132379.0763735805847.6641745467290.044995497001365161115127.5DRYL
2025-02-01 03:00:03FORECAST2025124-16018.57212.07415.323125.928105810750.6826775342.1926775340.072.262677534FF-13.428102.57232379.1822024384647.7496965102250.057489135241054161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-31 23:00:01FORECAST2025124-16018.51812.86615.692116.327866792430.7692917543.2592917540.073.329291754TF-13.48297.51832373.7832973046543.481413618090.056794265313926161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-31 19:00:01FORECAST2025124-16017.94213.08215.512116.098884504020.7240161393.2140161390.073.284016139TF-14.05896.94232373.6529097517943.3806860138630.049786013602625161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-31 15:00:02FORECAST2025124-16017.94212.93815.44116.127160418350.7200791293.2100791290.073.280079129TF-14.05896.94232373.6690147838943.3931216231750.049786013602625161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-31 11:00:01FORECAST2025124-16019.25613.22616.241125.030222068630.6866145443.1766145440.073.246614544TF-12.74498.25632378.682819990447.3467970769740.066878676136006161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-31 07:00:03FORECAST2025124-16020.73212.93816.835125.423168987470.6877956473.3977956470.073.467795647TF-11.268100.73232378.9015082547147.5230278994380.091116138354354161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-31 03:00:03FORECAST2025124-16021.70413.04617.375125.710620428710.6964570693.4264570690.073.496457069TF-10.296100.70432379.06134653447.652037053330.11029321964076161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-30 23:00:01FORECAST2025124-16021.25412.4716.862126.207091978380.7267720463.3767720460.073.446772046TF-10.74692.25432379.3371364068947.8750368653170.10108373386771161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-30 19:00:02FORECAST2025124-16021.79412.7417.267125.276147993020.7066932953.2066932950.073.276693295TF-10.20692.79432378.8197116477347.4570742590560.11220491046506161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-30 15:00:02FORECAST2025124-16021.77612.2917.033124.726218299620.7181106243.0281106240.073.098110624TF-10.22491.77632378.5134817835647.2105551582840.11182069601254161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-30 11:00:02FORECAST2025124-16022.71212.75817.735126.690640396780.8795280343.3695280340.073.439528034TF-9.28893.71232379.6054133691548.0924529178230.13306025754078161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-30 07:00:03FORECAST2025124-16022.44212.12817.285127.236381167170.8933075693.4633075690.073.533307569TF-9.55895.44232379.907799669548.3380936071280.12666768647284161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-30 03:00:03FORECAST2025124-16023.73813.11818.428127.387234614320.9578745333.4878745330.073.557874533TF-8.26296.73832379.9913112511948.4060423177570.15934878091185161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-29 23:00:01FORECAST2025124-16023.61213.20818.41126.133928679440.7346460662.8746460660.072.944646066TF-8.38891.61232379.2965160511547.8421597039560.15594915793296161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-29 19:00:02FORECAST2025124-16023.91814.52219.22126.138509450360.7507878072.9607878070.073.030787807TF-8.08291.91832379.2990595224547.8442180040840.16428871205001161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-29 15:00:02FORECAST2025124-16025.39414.73820.066125.191635426590.6956696672.7956696670.072.865669667TF-6.60693.39432378.7726784047347.4191710643990.20846776126094161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-29 11:00:02FORECAST2025124-16025.03415.15220.093125.798834997270.7173232223.0273232220.073.097323222TF-6.96694.03432379.110375124847.6916435260790.19709447249269161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-29 07:00:04FORECAST2025124-16024.29615.00819.652126.530281846590.6570869693.2170869690.073.287086969TF-7.70490.29632379.5164815342348.020327373950.17498131535232161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-29 03:00:03FORECAST2025124-16023.5415.18819.364126.237776933530.5948822113.0848822110.073.154882211TF-8.4688.5432379.354170485947.8888271526030.15402808314669161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-28 23:00:02FORECAST2025124-16024.33215.6219.976128.336112457840.6822838333.1822838330.073.252283833TF-7.66881.33232380.5158714287148.8339276676660.17602213968347161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-28 19:00:02FORECAST2025124-16025.14214.79219.967128.04534956340.7031499863.1031499860.073.173149986TF-6.85883.14232380.3552657437248.7027229604350.20046647233222161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-28 15:00:02FORECAST2025124-16025.26815.7120.489128.64238309080.7909453093.2409453090.073.310945309TF-6.73283.26832380.6849147400948.9722146388830.20444386621913161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-28 11:00:03FORECAST2025124-16025.4315.31420.372128.373163891620.8232287913.2532287910.073.323228791TF-6.5784.4332380.5363286259348.8506524814120.20962595031131161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-28 07:00:03FORECAST2025124-16025.3415.15220.246127.807221384190.8208665853.1108665850.073.180866585TF-6.6684.3432380.2236449726948.5953275685280.20673755717713161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-28 03:00:04FORECAST2025124-16025.08814.88219.985128.950500917730.8440949443.2940949440.073.364094944TF-6.91284.08832380.854844949849.111423033220.19877617065158161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-27 23:00:02FORECAST2025124-16025.8814.8120.345129.081610100180.7728350632.9328350630.073.002835063TF-6.1274.8832380.9271127125349.1706850397460.22441900083038161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-27 19:00:02FORECAST2025124-16025.3414.23419.787129.658945665440.8122051633.0422051630.073.112205163TF-6.6673.3432381.2450555925949.4318319482990.20673755717713161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-27 15:00:02FORECAST2025124-16024.31415.04419.679128.500925615020.6586617732.7786617730.072.848661773TF-7.68670.31432380.6068549053448.9083331507560.17550123964354161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-27 11:00:02FORECAST2025124-16023.01816.08819.553127.543910844780.4988191672.7088191670.072.778819167TF-8.98272.01832380.0780124226748.4766361304970.14056875018332161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-27 07:00:04FORECAST2025124-16024.67418.3221.497127.597638491460.6429137332.7829137330.072.852913733TF-7.32677.67432380.1077361739348.5008495081280.18610420868405161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-27 03:00:04FORECAST2025124-16026.29418.19422.244126.814260686650.6712602052.6412602050.072.711260205TF-5.70682.29432379.6739461348948.148070781080.238535959356161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-26 23:00:02FORECAST2025124-16027.01421.09224.053127.545329744540.893701272.673701270.072.74370127TF-4.98672.01432380.0787974528748.4772755500360.264201741921121621151210DRYL
2025-01-26 19:00:02FORECAST2025124-16026.90621.54224.224127.711914582650.9381894832.6981894830.072.768189483TF-5.09471.90632380.1709436595948.552359083460.260264289206051621151210DRYL
2025-01-26 15:00:02FORECAST2025124-16026.8721.50624.188127.67961648940.933071372.673071370.072.74307137TF-5.1369.8732380.1530810541548.5377995962570.258958547652011621151210DRYL
2025-01-26 11:00:02FORECAST2025124-16026.00618.10422.055124.20500273890.5409451742.0309451740.072.100945174FF-5.99471.00632378.2228463672646.9771696689610.22866462422442161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-26 07:00:04FORECAST2025124-16026.09618.6822.388123.481037527640.4374018111.8474018110.071.917401811FF-5.90472.09632377.8185166389446.6534224317290.23172457414723161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-26 03:00:04FORECAST2025124-16025.30417.54621.425124.903312320650.6704728031.9504728030.072.020472803FF-6.69670.30432378.6121437751947.2899108423440.2055888166036161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-25 23:00:03FORECAST2025124-16021.90214.46818.185127.882104475280.7799216812.0499216810.072.119921681FF-10.09862.90232380.2650437424248.6290940521650.11452995452205161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-25 19:00:02FORECAST2025124-16021.12814.52217.825128.332710289010.8106303592.0806303590.072.150630359FF-10.87259.12832380.5139928937348.8323920109470.098608154872553161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-25 15:00:02FORECAST2025124-16021.75815.8918.824126.914953599250.6657483911.8357483910.071.905748391FF-10.24255.75832379.7297524931748.1933839179260.11143742044684161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-25 11:00:03FORECAST2025124-16023.73818.48221.11121.971872481940.5125987021.2325987020.071.302598702FF-8.26265.73832376.9732638529745.9801348677770.15934878091185161114126DRYL
2025-01-25 07:00:04FORECAST2025124-16027.15818.93223.045120.217666891540.3866143820.9766143820.071.046614382FF-4.84272.15832375.9866882257945.2002424407830.26949840221282162113126DRYL
2025-01-25 03:00:03FORECAST2025124-16024.18818.6821.434120.765140254620.2074804270.9874804270.071.057480427FF-7.81267.18832376.2950624990445.4433259998170.17188227500075161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-24 23:00:03FORECAST2025124-16024.38616.89820.642124.028464713140.3397639631.2197639630.071.289763963FF-7.61458.38632378.1243195965346.8981788302560.17759069144509161114126DRYL
2025-01-24 19:00:02FORECAST2025124-16023.915.92619.913124.614960069370.4637797781.3137797780.071.383779778FF-8.160.932378.4514752909647.1607154815760.16379030845788161114126DRYL
2025-01-24 15:00:02FORECAST2025124-16023.5419.36421.452128.65999378510.7248035411.8748035410.071.944803541FF-8.4658.5432380.6946308062848.9801688335580.15402808314669161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-24 11:00:03FORECAST2025124-16022.58617.56420.075129.495350067720.7649610431.8949610430.071.964961043FF-9.41453.58632381.1550096457349.3578014041380.13005001783721161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-24 07:00:04FORECAST2025124-16024.33219.56221.947126.640762337880.6212601781.5612601780.071.631260178FF-7.66858.33232379.5777558171848.0700163631870.17602213968347161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-24 03:00:04FORECAST2025124-16027.87821.70424.791127.652806624180.8094492561.8194492560.071.889449256FF-4.12263.87832380.1382526247848.5257148527640.296753053527071621151210DRYL
2025-01-23 23:00:03FORECAST2025124-16026.34820.4823.414132.047134254630.8082681532.0182681530.072.088268153FF-5.65253.34832382.5553062649550.5153318861890.24041242158115161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-23 19:00:03FORECAST2025124-16026.76220.24623.504132.125550758120.7433074882.0033074880.072.073307488FF-5.23852.76232382.5981939016150.5509970883110.255061723889671621151210DRYL
2025-01-23 15:00:03FORECAST2025124-16026.2421.97424.107131.491275513810.5885829951.9485829950.072.018582995FF-5.7653.2432382.2510504039650.2626781841110.23666752993946161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-23 11:00:03FORECAST2025124-16030.07423.84626.96135.688273090940.578740472.558740470.072.62874047TF-1.92652.07432384.5377386945352.1772617017550.386656398660341621151210DRYL
2025-01-23 07:00:05FORECAST2025124-16026.72623.59425.16138.495290539440.937008382.877008380.072.94700838TF-5.27450.72632386.0535639288453.4666005001120.253769623142581621151210DRYL
2025-01-23 03:00:05FORECAST2025124-16027.3220.85824.089135.819268161450.8838587452.4638587450.072.533858745TF-4.6858.3232384.6087183727752.2372746579020.275520006562551621151210DRYL
2025-01-22 23:00:03FORECAST2025124-16031.04618.57224.809123.783664029710.0425197080.8625197080.070.932519708FF-0.95444.04632377.9876219606846.7886928041690.42885617273708162113126DRYL
2025-01-22 19:00:06FORECAST2025124-16025.39417.3321.362125.101608472810.0425197081.0025197080.071.072519708FF-6.60635.39432378.7225651675547.3788020674080.20846776126094161114126DRYL
2025-01-22 15:00:03FORECAST2025124-16025.50219.74222.622129.9903365547301.710.071.78FF-6.49843.50232381.427344448349.5818688760110.21195362646713161115127.5DRYL
2025-01-22 11:00:03FORECAST2025124-16033.69232.88233.287135.638192688210.3244096242.4844096240.072.554409624TF1.69250.69232384.5105963876152.1543223634790.546480315228631631151212.5DRYL
2025-01-22 07:00:04FORECAST2025124-16031.11828.81429.966130.5149045352201.880.071.95FF-0.88258.11832381.7155811263349.8195726303110.432021093885031621151210DRYL
2025-01-22 03:00:04FORECAST2025124-16031.1930.54230.866124.4979202132701.090.071.16FF-0.8154.1932378.3862276646647.1082983815940.43519038338312162114128DRYL