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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, December 8, 2025

[ Sunday, December 7, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, December 9, 2025 ]

DAY 69 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/09/2025 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.08°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.745
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 62

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 5.24 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 7.69 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.54 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.23 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 23 in
SWE DAY: 24
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 305.06 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.02 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 149

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-09 07:00:04OBSERVATION20266914939.5000630.0799434.7923.00192255.247.697.5415.23TT7.5000661.5000624305.06338987141 7.01704445140950.7447474075414616 43152240WETL
2025-12-09 03:00:02OBSERVATION20266914939.5000630.0799434.7923.00192255.247.697.5415.23TT7.5000661.5000624305.06338987141 7.01704445140950.7447474075414616 43152240WETL
2025-12-08 11:00:01FORECAST20266914937.77828.81433.29624.7228062004255.2385855067.6885855067.5415.228585506TT5.77859.77824306.340598353387.57359924441280.690321428705071633152235WETL
2025-12-08 07:00:05FORECAST20266914937.4928.05832.77424.513742214765.0228373587.4728373587.5415.012837358TT5.4959.4924306.185732629197.50575811950930.68074701781791633152235WETL
2025-12-08 03:00:04FORECAST20266914936.73427.42832.08124.4762826914794.5976402787.0476402787.5414.587640278TT4.73458.73424306.157975516137.49360915698360.655048241005231633152235WETL
2025-12-07 23:00:02FORECAST20266914936.55427.73432.14418.72487364.5444906437.3344906437.5414.874490643TT4.55455.55424301.864756513475.65237941000960.648816937982641633152235WETL
2025-12-07 19:00:01FORECAST20266914936.3227.51831.91918.8889227444324.4689000517.2589000517.5414.798900051TT4.3255.3224301.988084211475.70422959240970.640656301976381633152235WETL
2025-12-07 15:00:02FORECAST20266914936.66229.76833.21518.9356734072714.5555142717.3455142717.5414.885514271TT4.66255.66224302.02322068395.71901306828250.652560646134951633152235WETL
2025-12-07 11:00:03FORECAST20266914936.73429.31833.02622.6527405940614.5492150557.3392150557.5414.879215055TT4.73455.73424304.803551416266.90463578238110.655048241005231633152235WETL
2025-12-07 07:00:05FORECAST20266914936.15829.17432.66622.8250252587024.4653567427.0953567427.5414.635356742TT4.15857.15824304.931783256216.96007565500390.634968557718621633152235WETL
2025-12-07 03:00:05FORECAST20266914936.08629.1232.60321.9520630900444.5145693677.0745693677.5414.614569367TT4.08656.08624304.28145709946.67960574337640.63243102466031633152235WETL
2025-12-06 23:00:02FORECAST20266914936.89628.90432.918.4730578506934.5440969427.3040969427.5414.844096942TT4.89651.89624301.675348250915.57286616036710.660620763109411633152235WETL
2025-12-06 19:00:02FORECAST20266914936.75229.26433.00818.1212031284524.5338607167.2438607167.5414.783860716TT4.75252.75224301.410490687385.46192072679250.655669099721421633152235WETL
2025-12-06 15:00:03FORECAST20266914936.66229.80433.23317.2921594938924.5098449557.1498449557.5414.689844955TT4.66252.66224300.785493907695.2012307341010.652560646134951633152235WETL
2025-12-06 11:00:02FORECAST20266914936.51829.6633.08922.6002713033954.0964589056.7864589057.5414.326458905TT4.51852.51824304.764487263846.88776009580280.647565799144251633152235WETL
2025-12-06 07:00:05FORECAST20266914936.5929.8433.21524.5334277597323.9736241937.1436241937.5414.683624193TT4.5952.5924306.200318352537.51214339030850.650066466813371633152235WETL
2025-12-06 03:00:06FORECAST20266914936.35629.49832.92724.14187012723.8775611496.8675611497.5414.407561149TT4.35651.35624305.910062257067.38524099361370.641916077378861633152235WETL
2025-12-05 23:00:02FORECAST20266914936.3229.91233.11619.8308098672934.0212620146.8812620147.814.681262014TT4.3249.3224302.695175736086.00269047776910.640656301976381633152235WETL
2025-12-05 19:00:02FORECAST20266914936.55429.53433.04420.8647920588993.9401596086.4901596087.814.290159608TT4.55449.55424303.469459323986.33182716502130.648816937982641633152235WETL
2025-12-05 15:00:01FORECAST20266914936.55429.3932.97220.6731379117044.3326795056.9826795057.814.782679505TT4.55449.55424303.326095193056.27070219814460.648816937982641633152235WETL
2025-12-05 11:00:02FORECAST20266914936.46429.10232.78320.6575917205993.7818918066.2718918067.814.071891806TT4.46449.46424303.314463027756.265746340180.645686098703421633152235WETL
2025-12-05 07:00:03FORECAST20266914935.6929.8432.76526.9714252183223.7303169756.3603169757.5113.870316975TT3.6949.6924308.001091172568.30722839772220.618373816968721633152235WETL
2025-12-05 03:00:05FORECAST20266914936.19430.43433.31426.3183672192333.7980335476.3780335477.313.678033547TT4.19449.19424307.519817286828.09341947854610.636235120186221633152235WETL
2025-12-04 23:00:03FORECAST20266914936.78830.88433.83624.0997371154653.6791358456.3491358457.513.849135845TT4.78849.78824305.878812449657.37159896922710.656909558781481633152235WETL
2025-12-04 19:00:02FORECAST20266914936.12229.8432.98124.1384706266723.6763799386.2963799387.4413.736379938TT4.12249.12224305.907540991517.38414019270110.633700521643881633152235WETL
2025-12-04 15:00:03FORECAST20266914936.6831.29833.98924.1273742010013.3811041885.9311041887.5813.511104188TT4.6849.6824305.899311091087.38054714652310.653183165880171633152235WETL
2025-12-04 11:00:02FORECAST20266914936.15829.89433.02622.4369920669673.1283481465.9183481467.313.218348146TT4.15853.15824304.642890176226.83527011014170.634968557718621633152235WETL
2025-12-04 07:00:04FORECAST20266914937.38229.85833.6224.6120484265233.1283481466.0283481467.8613.888348146TT5.38258.38224306.258563940247.53765060673460.677124869106211633152235WETL
2025-12-04 03:00:07FORECAST20266914937.4928.00432.74744.2759983615743.1476394956.3376394958.4414.777639495TT5.4956.4924320.4672237270514.1890062726770.68074701781791633151217.5WETL
2025-12-03 23:00:03FORECAST20266914937.32831.56834.44841.1447645417174.2728369537.6028369538.4316.032836953TT5.32858.32824318.2519103358713.0943999157210.675307451145661633151217.5WETL
2025-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20266914937.38231.85634.61943.0762143034884.2728369537.6828369538.4116.092836953TT5.38257.38224319.6204712314813.7680399145490.677124869106211633151217.5WETL
2025-12-03 15:00:02FORECAST20266914937.2230.68633.95341.8975606082694.1720494977.4220494978.2615.682049497TT5.2255.2224318.7861151201613.3563605793220.671660111476461633151217.5WETL
2025-12-03 11:00:02FORECAST20266914937.47232.48634.97936.139104129113.4149624745.9049624747.9413.844962474TT5.47256.47224314.6736595592711.3720241495010.680144510080541633151217.5WETL
2025-12-03 07:00:07FORECAST20266914937.70632.57635.14125.1870938985313.4149624746.0149624748.114.114962474TT5.70655.70624306.68422899977.72448447301410.687939558122921633152235WETL
2025-12-03 03:00:04FORECAST20266914937.433.04435.22215.7390372915483.0066945375.7366945377.9713.706694537TT5.453.424299.611082900354.71559000672960.677729739798721633153252.5WETH
2025-12-02 23:00:02FORECAST20266914936.35629.4832.91813.1554094447941.9165364684.4765364687.3911.866536468TT4.35649.35624297.647150294733.91567013220320.641916077378861633153252.5WETH
2025-12-02 19:00:02FORECAST20266914936.44629.5733.00815.3477274555941.9665364954.4865364956.6511.136536495TT4.44648.44624299.314458109544.59379672658390.6450587400761633153252.5WETH
2025-12-02 15:00:02FORECAST20266914936.4129.80433.10716.4847001042961.8870088934.3470088936.7411.087008893TT4.4146.4124300.175502531344.94830313788550.643802844291811633153252.5WETH
2025-12-02 11:00:06FORECAST20266914937.5829.69633.63813.7396495514361.0783470393.298347039710.298347039TT5.5849.5824298.092386037414.09568491810550.683752380912911633153252.5WETH
2025-12-02 07:00:06FORECAST20266914937.77830.16433.97129.0510460748981.0783470393.2983470396.9610.258347039TT5.77853.77824309.528368636068.99212289873410.690321428705071633152235WETL
2025-12-02 03:00:04FORECAST20266914935.67228.54432.10831.1836837061791.1145675313.0645675316.919.974567531TT3.67244.67224311.086225619139.7008144650560.617730969103011633152235WETL
2025-12-01 23:00:02FORECAST20266914936.78828.95832.87329.9481461027451.0342525273.1342525277.3510.484252527TT4.78846.78824310.184713990899.28945713343730.656909558781481633152235WETL
2025-12-01 19:00:03FORECAST20266914935.81628.47232.14431.0136858076361.0342525273.1342525277.410.534252527TT3.81644.81624310.96235422079.64408875180370.622864525167071633152235WETL
2025-12-01 15:00:03FORECAST20266914935.58226.90631.24430.7025904299861.4374023513.4874023517.410.887402351TT3.58248.58224310.735531579699.54038575813540.614511894644651633152235WETL
2025-12-01 11:00:02FORECAST20266914935.47428.90432.18928.3929641777651.783465533.223465537.5710.79346553TT3.47450.47424309.045944293868.77473042561890.610638588671291633152235WETL
2025-12-01 07:00:05FORECAST20266914934.80827.71631.26213.297979480711.783465533.223465537.5510.77346553TT2.80848.80824297.755860541333.95955132373990.586523770275421633153252.5WETL
2025-12-01 03:00:03FORECAST20266914933.33226.1529.74114.8700755800651.8830718833.6730718837.5711.243071883TT1.33247.33224298.951983612514.44543859112830.532033433461031633153252.5WETL
2025-11-30 23:00:04FORECAST20266914933.2625.48429.37216.0286249921131.8480324944.0380324946.7510.788032494TT1.2638.2624299.830409463414.80586919452080.529351378139311633153252.5WETL
2025-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20266914933.58425.37629.4818.7021607991641.8744104614.0644104616.810.864410461TT1.58436.58424301.847677595445.64520380324420.541408389023641633152235WETL
2025-11-30 15:00:02FORECAST20266914931.65825.53828.59820.0609849571251.6409457683.8709457686.8310.700945768TT-0.34235.65824302.867715238256.07582467939350.46955445788091623152230WETL
2025-11-30 11:00:04FORECAST20266914931.53226.00628.76918.2749856239930.9283469583.3983469586.299.688346958TT-0.46835.53224301.526279109475.51038841598150.464862852332561623152230WETL
2025-11-30 07:00:06FORECAST20266914933.18826.92430.05638.861366634960.9283469583.3983469586.299.688346958TT1.18838.18824316.6252862525212.3044913349580.526667990763271633151217.5WETL
2025-11-30 03:00:05FORECAST20266914932.46826.25829.36341.575324082541.0240163013.6440163016.269.904016301TT0.46838.46824318.5575722550413.2441343054510.499787629590621633151217.5WETL
2025-11-29 23:00:04FORECAST20266914932.55826.27629.41728.8861828905240.2303150851.4203150856.287.700315085TT0.55830.55824309.407587010838.93760414611070.503150128485841633142228WETL
2025-11-29 19:00:03FORECAST20266914933.27826.31229.79528.8700101102290.2303150851.4203150856.287.700315085TT1.27825.27824309.395735827418.9322580213990.530022021587871633142228WETL
2025-11-29 15:00:02FORECAST20266914936.6827.37432.02731.0679139849430.2807088131.8007088136.428.220708813TT4.6833.6824311.001874166969.66217947577530.653183165880171633152235WETL
2025-11-29 11:00:48FORECAST20266914933.7125.62829.66929.6583641528420.6909452552.6209452554.957.570945255TT1.7133.7124309.972864305529.19328808707270.546087572918131633152235WETL
2025-11-29 07:00:04FORECAST20266914932.77425.62829.20122.1328583844610.688976752.588976754.897.47897675TT0.77441.77424304.416261665866.73760200937750.511218758110381633152235WETL
2025-11-29 03:00:06FORECAST20266914932.28821.41626.85213.7661583791580.0692913761.8692913764.766.629291376TT0.28834.28824298.112572130724.10386488276980.493062915925691623153245WETL
2025-11-28 23:00:03FORECAST20266914931.62223.77427.6986.25644573389030.0578740471.1478740474.515.657874047TF-0.37836.62224292.339339630381.82900521427880.468213539031311623144248WETL
2025-11-28 19:00:02FORECAST20266914931.62223.77427.6986.54957117103270.0578740471.1478740474.515.657874047TF-0.37832.62224292.566756668931.91618679508140.468213539031311623144248WETL
2025-11-28 15:00:02FORECAST20266914930.41622.94626.6816.67806410044320.110236281.130236284.96.03023628TF-1.58432.41624292.666392642571.95444493011260.423595062611481623144248WETL
2025-11-28 11:00:03FORECAST20266914923.21621.27222.24417.5163151597810.303149771.903149775.57.40314977TT-8.78432.21624300.954609505585.27161578888870.192949923714491613152225WETL
2025-11-28 07:00:07FORECAST20266914923.21621.27222.24417.1264469209890.303149771.953149775.517.46314977TT-8.78432.21624300.660409137335.14924453833340.192949923714491613152225WETL
2025-11-28 03:00:06FORECAST20266914921.14620.94821.0479.98329787085430.0877953231.4377953235.747.177795323TT-10.85436.14624295.218191906912.94725114670170.144330193061081613143230WETL