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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 4, 2025

[ Wednesday, December 3, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, December 5, 2025 ]

DAY 65 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/05/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.02°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.78°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.40°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.413
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 56

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.07 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.46 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.34 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.80 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 13 in
SWE DAY: 28
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 302.03 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.92 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 145

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 36.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-05 07:00:03OBSERVATION20266514532.0199826.7829.3999912.96257251.071.464.345.8TF0.01997999999999756.0199828302.03160088904 3.91510652381520.4133501044540216 23143236WETL
2025-12-05 03:00:03OBSERVATION20266514532.0199826.7829.3999912.96257251.071.464.345.8TF0.01997999999999756.0199828302.03160088904 3.91510652381520.4133501044540216 23143236WETL
2025-12-04 11:00:01FORECAST20266514532.14427.2329.68713.2449124502441.1921266281.5821266284.345.922126628TF0.14456.14428302.243704916914.00319141026190.419175346098191623153245WETL
2025-12-04 07:00:03FORECAST20266514532.75627.55430.15512.7155369328331.1519691261.5419691264.345.881969126TF0.75656.75628301.845893987183.83813261301780.448157089070671623153245WETL
2025-12-04 03:00:06FORECAST20266514532.68427.93230.30815.4815849470071.6177174092.0077174094.346.347717409TT0.68456.68428303.918609931714.70514177663420.444729963399891623153245WETL
2025-12-03 23:00:01FORECAST20266514533.69227.19430.44315.4263054693241.4665362251.8565362254.346.196536225TT1.69256.69228303.877329143934.68770450457660.492969170236831623153245WETL
2025-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20266514533.45827.55430.50616.4656353241871.7866151382.1766151384.346.516615138TT1.45856.45828304.652495325155.01629688862740.481735567052911623152230WETL
2025-12-03 15:00:02FORECAST20266514532.50428.09430.29916.9814900864631.8830718832.2730718834.346.613071883TT0.50455.50428305.036477439285.17997391764490.436180752817261623152230WETL
2025-12-03 11:00:02FORECAST20266514532.41428.20230.30815.7808497136491.5169299531.9069299534.346.246929953TT0.41455.41428304.141989832924.79961903316340.431917045447851623153245WETL
2025-12-03 07:00:06FORECAST20266514532.68427.19429.93916.3260229548511.6059063791.9959063794.346.335906379TT0.68455.68428304.548486798244.97206558633330.444729963399891623153245WETL
2025-12-03 03:00:04FORECAST20266514532.55826.52829.54311.1694339166671.5909457411.9809457414.346.320945741TT0.55855.55828300.680973532293.35843626386790.438742574114181623153245WETL
2025-12-02 23:00:02FORECAST20266514532.55827.51830.0389.98268161.4224417131.4524417134.345.792441713TF0.55851.55828299.783699426932.99264522024920.438742574114181623143236WETL
2025-12-02 19:00:02FORECAST20266514533.54826.83430.19110.2710431985610.7842523920.8142523924.345.154252392TF1.54852.54828300.0019713263.0813332071430.486054955411821623133227WETL
2025-12-02 15:00:02FORECAST20266514532.82826.72629.77710.0383758196580.8610240870.8910240874.345.231024087TF0.82851.82828299.825868965153.00976475312770.451588088298751623133227WETL
2025-12-02 11:00:04FORECAST20266514533.09827.39230.24510.1586754918050.716535820.746535824.345.08653582TF1.09852.09828299.916934930743.04675881645810.464484494380621623133227WETL
2025-12-02 07:00:05FORECAST20266514532.70227.37430.03812.6016385945570.7555122190.8355122194.345.175512219TF0.70252.70228301.760232617173.80267339365090.445586367830391623133227WETL
2025-12-02 03:00:04FORECAST20266514532.43226.02429.22812.4388372341080.6669294940.7469294944.345.086929494TF0.43251.43228301.637748923653.75202286252390.432769169253381623133227WETL
2025-12-01 23:00:01FORECAST20266514533.33226.65429.99314.5717342519621.0645675041.2645675044.215.474567504TF1.33251.33228303.238427179114.41870977583690.475692136871951623143236WETL
2025-12-01 19:00:02FORECAST20266514532.23426.85229.54314.6124426828421.0661423081.2461423084.215.456142308TF0.23450.23428303.268893438084.43149932285280.423413859681671623143236WETL
2025-12-01 15:00:02FORECAST20266514533.60227.5930.59614.2652975786341.0767722351.2167722354.215.426772235TF1.60252.60228303.008988314114.32251338730150.488647406466191623143236WETL
2025-12-01 11:00:02FORECAST20266514533.76426.79830.28113.4631552423570.8224413891.0024413894.215.212441389TF1.76453.76428302.407552631894.07135982754440.496427199924571623143236WETL
2025-12-01 07:00:04FORECAST20266514534.48426.54630.51510.3164096275070.838583130.998583134.195.18858313TF2.48455.48428300.036296355483.09529733632330.530979410781633143242WETL
2025-12-01 03:00:03FORECAST20266514534.37626.61830.49710.3432308155690.8614177881.0314177884.25.231417788TF2.37654.37628300.056587872653.10355454609880.525805071526061633143242WETL
2025-11-30 23:00:03FORECAST20266514534.1626.67230.41610.2782027609340.5645672340.6745672344.244.914567234TF2.1647.1628300.007388638323.08353677020280.515444195055171633133231.5WETL
2025-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20266514533.00825.6129.30910.3351041184910.559055420.699055424.274.96905542TF1.00845.00828300.050439781913.10105253594490.460180866357911623133227WETL
2025-11-30 15:00:02FORECAST20266514532.8126.07829.44410.4236252633730.4425199240.6125199244.284.892519924TF0.8145.8128300.117401853173.12831133193450.450729989204861623133227WETL
2025-11-30 11:00:03FORECAST20266514532.55826.3329.44410.5864088345320.9507879151.1307879154.215.340787915TF0.55845.55828300.240500654053.17846868860840.438742574114181623143236WETL
2025-11-30 07:00:06FORECAST20266514532.10825.93429.02114.1274906499730.9507879151.1007879154.245.340787915TF0.10848.10828302.905749664364.27929814620640.417482534162031623143236WETL
2025-11-30 03:00:04FORECAST20266514532.66625.5229.09314.0649460739020.8838587451.0638587454.245.303858745TF0.66648.66628302.858882204264.25969384620510.443873816872071623143236WETL
2025-11-29 23:00:03FORECAST20266514532.55826.63629.59714.2440639845890.8842524461.0142524464.195.204252446TF0.55836.55828302.993083431294.31585286728330.438742574114181623143236WETL
2025-11-29 19:00:03FORECAST20266514532.84626.34829.59714.2611045356260.8842524461.0042524464.25.204252446TF0.84631.84628303.005847611024.32119806768670.452446413638491623143236WETL
2025-11-29 15:00:01FORECAST20266514533.3528.05830.70414.1149326695010.8830713430.9930713434.195.183071343TF1.3535.3528302.896340002924.27536144497940.476555174291971623143236WETL
2025-11-29 11:00:30FORECAST20266514534.44825.730.07412.5138815195490.5145672070.6945672074.24.894567207TF2.44835.44828301.694214825823.77536565946380.529255168898781633133231.5WETL
2025-11-29 07:00:04FORECAST20266514535.0627.24831.15410.3089679961030.5031498780.6531498784.194.843149878TF3.0643.0628300.030666158873.09300653528130.558466505244771633133231.5WETL
2025-11-29 03:00:05FORECAST20266514535.00627.28431.1459.744328050.4590553660.5790553664.194.769055366TF3.00640.00628299.603159801952.91943147392680.555899440130241633133231.5WETL
2025-11-28 23:00:02FORECAST20266514536.69827.80632.2526.84035133389030.1976379020.3676379024.294.657637902TF4.69836.69828297.39475753652.03428462640680.634688984823451633124228WETM
2025-11-28 19:00:02FORECAST20266514535.0628.23831.6497.06105437103270.1976379020.3576379024.34.657637902TF3.0633.0628297.56316927352.1011097170570.558466505244771633124228WETL
2025-11-28 15:00:02FORECAST20266514535.54628.59832.0727.13503370044320.2649607730.4349607734.324.754960773TF3.54633.54628297.619599513532.12352587244140.581447047174721633124228WETM
2025-11-28 11:00:03FORECAST20266514536.60830.50633.5578.11423199299930.3334647470.5234647474.224.743464747TF4.60836.60828298.365518019142.42100703191870.63060724988551633134242WETM
2025-11-28 07:00:07FORECAST20266514536.30230.41633.3597.87973735420690.3366143550.5366143554.194.726614355TF4.30236.30228298.187057232732.34963569341770.616621450972491633134242WETM
2025-11-28 03:00:05FORECAST20266514536.6828.38232.5317.93475183236130.5204727220.7404727224.234.970472722TF4.6841.6828298.228935226612.36637259025250.633873839808141633134242WETM
2025-11-27 23:00:02FORECAST20266514536.89629.37233.1346.90799873208020.7003940790.9803940794.75.680394079TF4.89633.89628297.446387231162.05475926585470.643614732633021633134242WETM
2025-11-27 19:00:03FORECAST20266514538.24629.53433.895.71822344105920.6877956470.9577956474.755.707795647TF6.24640.24628296.53703427481.69566502053240.70218109739271643134248WETM
2025-11-27 15:00:04FORECAST20266514536.89628.34632.6215.68560103564670.6492129490.9592129494.745.699212949TF4.89638.89628296.51206203071.68584928696350.643614732633021633134242WETM
2025-11-27 11:00:02FORECAST20266514535.56427.53631.559.07061287677120.1401575560.3001575564.715.010157556TF3.56433.56428299.092266344132.71295016244370.582293364605121633123221WETL
2025-11-27 07:00:04FORECAST20266514533.40426.25829.8318.56977284864360.1401575560.3101575565.055.360157556TF1.40431.40428298.711901078422.55989313942860.479144930304481623123218WETL
2025-11-27 03:00:05FORECAST20266514534.14225.55629.84914.3294924127910.1401575560.3201575564.915.230157556TF2.14229.14228303.057067812364.342653953860.514580220950061633123221WETL
2025-11-26 23:00:02FORECAST20266514533.65627.93230.7948.78071887948510.409449040.769449044.685.44944904TF1.65636.65628298.872163996452.62431245295620.491240337266271623133227WETL
2025-11-26 19:00:03FORECAST20266514533.65627.530.5789.04781032150910.409449040.769449044.875.63944904TF1.65639.65628299.074959350092.70597350411270.491240337266271623133227WETL
2025-11-26 15:00:03FORECAST20266514533.92627.26630.5969.23179773138450.4106301430.8306301434.995.820630143TF1.92637.92628299.214576039052.76228844427450.504208352438221633133231.5WETL
2025-11-26 11:00:03FORECAST20266514532.0924.63828.36410.6580568223060.1086614760.6386614764.465.098661476TF0.09000000000000332.0928300.294665553873.20055760890860.416636699182461623133227WETL
2025-11-26 07:00:09FORECAST20266514533.99828.45431.2264.12577335474890.2696851850.7596851854.184.939685185TF1.99837.99828295.315605787741.21840525760060.507666304520111633134242WETL
2025-11-26 03:00:05FORECAST20266514534.8828.54431.7122.11736947596880.2181103540.5981103544.274.868110354TF2.8839.8828293.768074252670.622015553436760.549900677781561633134242WETL
2025-11-25 23:00:05FORECAST20266514535.4229.33632.378000.14.424.52TF3.4238.4228292.1280104502200.57551247954341633125235WETM
2025-11-25 19:00:03FORECAST20266514535.4229.26432.342000.14.624.72TF3.4237.4228292.1280104502200.57551247954341633125235WETM
2025-11-25 15:00:04FORECAST20266514534.57428.18431.3790.0258083055490730.2374017030.3474017035.025.367401703TF2.57436.57428292.148054093860.00753984624562140.535287404018581633125235WETL
2025-11-25 11:00:03FORECAST20266514535.74428.52632.1351.62802885545290.1566929980.3166929984.64.916692998TF3.74447.74428293.389826006870.477647102635470.590734963448541633124228WETM
2025-11-25 07:00:04FORECAST20266514537.97626.67232.32413.0550527340410.1476378750.3076378754.855.157637875TF5.97640.97628302.101092153113.94394568907030.690819276527721633123221WETM
2025-11-25 03:00:05FORECAST20266514535.79827.12231.4615.2145124730640.4736223030.8536223034.955.803622303TF3.79836.79828303.719115858224.62093827653280.593259450512261633133231.5WETL
2025-11-24 23:00:03FORECAST20266514528.54423.05425.79917.8338615460020.0125984320.3425984325.585.922598432TF-3.45613.54428305.669847971595.45127374751270.261912039047321623122212WETL
2025-11-24 19:00:05FORECAST20266514528.54423.05425.79918.1893538924940.0125984320.3425984325.726.062598432TF-3.45614.54428305.933598256395.56473448628950.261912039047321623122212WETL
2025-11-24 15:00:03FORECAST20266514526.7822.80224.79116.3109269532590.0129921330.1229921335.655.772992133TF-5.228.7828304.537238357924.96728464940320.197689364243241613123215WETL
2025-11-24 11:00:02FORECAST20266514532.43226.1529.29116.25809281545300.145.75.84TF0.43224.43228304.497866811994.95055458073670.432769169253381623123218WETL
2025-11-24 07:00:04FORECAST20266514532.43226.1529.29116.492700602900.115.825.93TF0.43224.43228304.672654168855.02487486709790.432769169253381623122212WETL
2025-11-24 03:00:07FORECAST20266514521.86621.18221.52417.53832241604600.215.816.02TF-10.13414.86628305.450397384495.35708755143860.0746082775647821613122210WETL