Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 30, 2025

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DAY 91 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/31/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.68°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.55°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.11°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.744 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 21 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 61 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.12 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.13 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 47 in SWE DAY: 2 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 297.99 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 13.86 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 171 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-31 07:00:03	OBSERVATION	2026	91	171	52.68002	37.54994	45.11498	46.514014583333	0	0.01	11.12	11.13	T	T	20.68002	60.68002	2	297.98650143219	13.860548473253	0.74440542518447	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2025-12-31 03:00:03	OBSERVATION	2026	91	171	52.68002	37.54994	45.11498	46.514014583333	0	0.01	11.12	11.13	T	T	20.68002	60.68002	2	297.98650143219	13.860548473253	0.74440542518447	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2025-12-30 11:00:01	FORECAST	2026	91	171	41.612	33.296	37.454	46.425836	0	0.01	11.12	11.13	T	T	9.612	49.612	2	297.91932120271	13.831153547388	0.60405008816169	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-30 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.044	31.748	36.896	46.250478483333	0	0.01	11.12	11.13	T	T	10.044	50.044	2	297.78567762007	13.772730075412	0.60994992821497	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-30 03:00:03	FORECAST	2026	91	171	43.556	31.73	37.643	46.083592083333	0	0.01	11.12	11.13	T	T	11.556	51.556	2	297.65843475631	13.717169887473	0.63039254353149	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-29 23:00:01	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.764	32.468	37.616	47.3278296	0	0.01	11.12	11.13	T	T	10.764	45.764	2	298.60580936545	14.132364863218	0.619726340304	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-29 19:00:01	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.89	33.098	37.994	47.2690848	0	0.01	11.12	11.13	T	T	10.89	45.89	2	298.561147811	14.112712213863	0.62142957508025	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-29 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.962	33.908	38.435	47.250684	0	0.01	11.12	11.13	T	T	10.962	45.962	2	298.5471569752	14.106557373333	0.62240179684224	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-29 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.422	33.296	37.859	47.1986304	0	0.01	11.12	11.13	T	T	10.422	45.422	2	298.50757507997	14.0891487078	0.61509164967328	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-29 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.152	33.44	37.796	47.161060633333	0	0.01	11.12	11.13	T	T	10.152	44.152	2	298.47900353373	14.076586383431	0.61142099861911	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-29 03:00:04	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.26	32.648	37.454	47.203175833333	0	0.01	11.12	11.13	T	T	10.26	44.26	2	298.51103166552	14.090668715897	0.61289047323968	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-28 23:00:01	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.242	34.412	38.327	49.1775728	0	0	11.12	11.12	T	T	10.242	42.242	2	300.00869933291	14.753699652077	0.61264567246449	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-28 19:00:01	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.62	34.736	38.678	49.0951136	0	0	11.12	11.12	T	T	10.62	42.62	2	299.94630054755	14.725897699282	0.61777694252974	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-28 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.674	34.646	38.66	49.0953104	0	0	11.12	11.12	T	T	10.674	42.674	2	299.94644948623	14.725964040904	0.61850831945485	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-28 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.026	34.196	38.111	49.1462816	0	0	11.12	11.12	T	T	10.026	42.026	2	299.98502209627	14.743148371725	0.6097045960663	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-28 07:00:03	FORECAST	2026	91	171	41.486	34.16	37.823	48.834605833333	0	0	11.12	11.12	T	T	9.486	43.486	2	299.74908240399	14.638128288102	0.60232473680292	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-28 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	91	171	41.432	33.962	37.697	48.830768233333	0	0	11.12	11.12	T	T	9.432	43.432	2	299.74617616256	14.636836057022	0.60158468534322	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-27 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	91	171	40.928	33.494	37.211	44.2026648	0	0	11.1	11.1	T	T	8.928	42.928	2	296.22058209973	13.093739097415	0.59466025797977	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-27 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	91	171	40.1	33.332	36.716	44.2510776	0	0	11.1	11.1	T	T	8.1	41.1	2	296.25767688806	13.109721449569	0.58322080710192	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-27 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	91	171	40.514	33.602	37.058	44.1994176	0	0	11.1	11.1	T	T	8.514	41.514	2	296.21809387142	13.092667231699	0.58894998607913	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-27 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	91	171	41.378	34.16	37.769	44.341726791122	0	0	11.1	11.1	T	T	9.378	43.378	2	296.32712171975	13.139656272097	0.60084426845091	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-27 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.008	34.088	38.048	44.31080402178	0	0	11.1	11.1	T	T	10.008	44.008	2	296.30343409938	13.129443399358	0.60945922023586	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-27 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.242	34.916	38.579	44.305426906374	0	0	11.11	11.11	T	T	10.242	44.242	2	296.29931490361	13.127667638871	0.61264567246449	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-26 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	91	171	39.596	33.44	36.518	41.567203522253	0	0	11.36	11.36	T	T	7.596	37.596	2	294.1943441377	12.228836177868	0.57622234351623	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-26 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	91	171	40.514	34.142	37.328	41.509312857447	0	0	11.38	11.38	T	T	8.514	38.514	2	294.14968327957	12.20995123017	0.58894998607913	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-26 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	91	171	39.812	34.07	36.941	41.676914446416	0	0	11.39	11.39	T	T	7.812	36.812	2	294.2789647103	12.264639235611	0.57922476467187	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-26 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	91	171	41.576	34.97	38.273	45.769343354135	0	0	11.38	11.38	T	T	9.576	38.576	2	297.41868874036	13.612658084894	0.60355733693624	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-26 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	91	171	40.316	34.124	37.22	45.382556257322	0	0	11.3	11.3	T	T	8.316	38.316	2	297.12333905572	13.484216650059	0.5862122306382	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-26 03:00:09	FORECAST	2026	91	171	40.1	34.412	37.256	45.991524685329	0	0	11.4	11.4	T	T	8.1	39.1	2	297.58821469851	13.68653572237	0.58322080710192	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-25 23:00:04	FORECAST	2026	91	171	39.632	34.43	37.031	46.36171547593	0	0	11.57	11.57	T	T	7.632	33.632	2	297.87046053137	13.80978553984	0.57672305933195	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-25 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	91	171	38.606	33.8	36.203	47.197590912232	0	0	11.74	11.74	T	T	6.606	33.606	2	298.50678459343	14.088801103766	0.56240716917733	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-25 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	91	171	39.002	32.9	35.951	47.308095772964	0	0	11.73	11.73	T	T	7.002	33.002	2	298.5908071912	14.125762503528	0.56794335278301	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-25 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	91	171	39.758	33.638	36.698	48.758285579378	0	0	11.78	11.78	T	T	7.758	34.758	2	299.69127921898	14.612432977808	0.57847458407078	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-25 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	91	171	40.352	34.862	37.607	50.486717235993	0	0	12.12	12.12	T	T	8.352	36.352	2	300.99761040142	15.196381245046	0.58671032024513	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-25 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	91	171	39.83	33.782	36.806	50.813678374892	0	0	12.16	12.16	T	T	7.83	34.83	2	301.24407992344	15.30731978957	0.57947476110446	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-24 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	91	171	40.64	35.672	38.156	52.904061351029	0	0	12.09	12.09	T	T	8.64	34.64	2	302.81502190959	16.020144497118	0.59068995039683	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-24 19:00:05	FORECAST	2026	91	171	41.468	35.51	38.489	52.284242668692	0	0	12	12	T	T	9.468	39.468	2	302.35009210392	15.808145586463	0.60207809374344	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-24 15:00:04	FORECAST	2026	91	171	40.514	33.944	37.229	52.067484941678	0	0	11.9	11.9	T	T	8.514	38.514	2	302.18732797726	15.734134149022	0.58894998607913	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-24 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	91	171	40.28	34.088	37.184	52.098202183622	0	0	11.78	11.78	T	T	8.28	40.28	2	302.21039911056	15.744618474855	0.58571400231365	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-24 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	91	171	40.118	34.52	37.319	51.306621111018	0	0	11.99	11.99	T	T	8.118	42.118	2	301.61528281566	15.474861036716	0.58347027903862	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-24 03:00:04	FORECAST	2026	91	171	39.722	34.97	37.346	51.349758776287	0	0	11.77	11.77	T	T	7.722	41.722	2	301.64774485582	15.489538933758	0.57797430523193	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-23 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	91	171	39.74	36.374	38.057	49.288069324797	0	0	11.92	11.92	T	T	7.74	41.74	2	300.09229412332	14.790969796587	0.57822446042971	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-23 19:00:04	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.566	38.408	40.487	47.246884104857	0	0	11.66	11.66	T	T	10.566	43.566	2	298.54426768734	14.105286415593	0.61704514528039	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-23 15:00:04	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.422	38.444	40.433	47.360945460688	0	0	11.46	11.46	T	T	10.422	44.422	2	298.63098322389	14.143445709338	0.61509164967328	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-23 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.746	36.968	39.857	47.097158665912	0	0	11.52	11.52	T	T	10.746	43.746	2	298.43040026888	14.055223912195	0.61948283062525	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-23 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	91	171	41.072	36.878	38.975	47.77495045815	0	0	11.65	11.65	T	T	9.072	43.072	2	298.94552094133	14.282107452658	0.59664179307668	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2026	91	171	41.054	37.418	39.236	47.869761760576	0	0	11.67	11.67	T	T	9.054	42.054	2	299.01750670251	14.31389680809	0.59639423568219	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2025-12-22 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	91	171	37.508	34.826	36.167	46.095515283753	0.347244282	0.347244282	12.04	12.387244282	T	T	5.508	37.508	2	297.66752741313	13.721138059349	0.54699612357274	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2025-12-22 19:00:05	FORECAST	2026	91	171	37.346	34.502	35.924	46.470484855053	0.347244282	0.347244282	11.87	12.217244282	T	T	5.346	31.346	2	297.95333951007	13.846036151215	0.54471578491409	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2025-12-22 15:00:04	FORECAST	2026	91	171	37.904	34.304	36.104	46.479025123209	0.308267883	0.308267883	11.88	12.188267883	T	T	5.904	34.904	2	297.95984596677	13.848883166397	0.55256361439407	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2025-12-22 11:00:04	FORECAST	2026	91	171	32.36	24.17	28.265	56.946312506	0.963780048	1.363780048	12.31	13.673780048	T	T	0.36	22.36	2	305.82925268481	17.415848196866	0.47417680218859	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2025-12-22 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	91	171	32.054	24.044	28.049	56.234169297855	0.959843038	1.339843038	12.09	13.429843038	T	T	0.054000000000002	21.054	2	305.3004642357	17.168317992544	0.46985150966974	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2025-12-22 03:00:06	FORECAST	2026	91	171	31.874	24.044	27.959	59.907086072751	1.355512543	1.735512543	12.36	14.095512543	T	T	-0.126	17.874	2	308.01749277434	18.452430451546	0.46730884778434	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2025-12-21 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	91	171	34.322	24.17	29.246	60.82275075108	1.958268774	3.538268774	12.53	16.068268774	T	T	2.322	7.322	2	308.69091469112	18.775430563381	0.50196006416878	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2025-12-21 19:00:04	FORECAST	2026	91	171	33.08	23.18	28.13	61.732510810698	1.958268774	3.538268774	12.51	16.048268774	T	T	1.08	6.08	2	309.35844475472	19.097473535201	0.484365070205	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2025-12-21 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	91	171	34.736	22.694	28.715	60.195302808846	1.959843578	3.559843578	12.45	16.009843578	T	T	2.736	6.736	2	308.22962955014	18.553975885429	0.50782590552221	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2025-12-21 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.188	24.764	33.476	66.245002204034	0.731102757	2.581102757	12.72	15.301102757	T	T	10.188	20.188	2	312.64674879533	20.711284563031	0.6119110017836	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2025-12-21 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	91	171	42.188	24.764	33.476	65.662322284445	0.731102757	2.581102757	12.78	15.361102757	T	T	10.188	26.188	2	312.22425942149	20.501369947156	0.6119110017836	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2025-12-21 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	91	171	37.922	24.836	31.379	66.556376472183	1.383071613	3.453071613	12.72	16.173071613	T	T	5.922	28.922	2	312.87226373147	20.823644172616	0.55281644471185	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2025-12-20 23:00:05	FORECAST	2026	91	171	32.63	26.006	29.318	45.438008417332	0.305511976	0.465511976	12.94	13.405511976	T	T	0.63	21.63	2	297.16570000986	13.50261757839	0.47799578294662	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2025-12-20 19:00:05	FORECAST	2026	91	171	32.63	26.006	29.318	46.588786927566	0.305511976	0.465511976	13.05	13.515511976	T	T	0.63	24.63	2	298.04345612135	13.885483072393	0.47799578294662	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2025-12-20 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	91	171	35.636	26.402	31.019	49.073733845407	0.336220654	0.506220654	13.36	13.866220654	T	T	3.636	24.636	2	299.9301198587	14.718690874167	0.52057018748121	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2025-12-20 11:00:04	FORECAST	2026	91	171	34.25	30.218	32.234	66.042214740576	0	2.03	12.78	14.81	T	T	2.25	14.25	2	312.49978265944	20.638177752778	0.50093983893255	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2025-12-20 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	91	171	26.276	22.892	24.584	66.605073993559	0	1.92	12.79	14.71	T	T	-5.724	-3.724	2	312.90751711762	20.84122833076	0.38940496290776	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2025-12-20 03:00:07	FORECAST	2026	91	171	26.024	25.394	25.709	72.634324499552	0.224015869	2.484015869	13.03	15.514015869	T	T	-5.976	-2.976	2	317.23872707455	23.042420646157	0.38597659126493	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L