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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, December 29, 2025

[ Sunday, December 28, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, December 30, 2025 ]

DAY 90 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/30/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.21°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.34°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.28°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.812
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 50

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.08 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.23 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 47 in
SWE DAY: 3
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 299.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 14.02 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 170

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-30 07:00:03OBSERVATION20269017041.2100627.3399834.2750246.81913208333300.0811.1511.23TT9.2100650.210063299.35547131794 14.0155633515030.8124120182916616 4111123WETL
2025-12-30 03:00:02OBSERVATION20269017041.2100627.3399834.2750246.81913208333300.0811.1511.23TT9.2100650.210063299.35547131794 14.0155633515030.8124120182916616 4111123WETL
2025-12-29 11:00:02FORECAST20269017035.79825.19630.49747.854072800.0811.1511.23TT3.79844.7983300.1392394582914.3628850151740.62741136030022163111122.5WETL
2025-12-29 07:00:04FORECAST20269017035.25825.37630.31747.82270223333300.0811.1511.23TT3.25844.2583300.1155125665814.3523347930760.60601878058304163111122.5WETL
2025-12-29 03:00:03FORECAST20269017035.4225.1630.2947.82565423333300.0811.1511.23TT3.4244.423300.1177453701214.3533275193590.61247349834468163111122.5WETL
2025-12-28 23:00:01FORECAST20269017035.8724.81830.34449.856532800.0711.1511.22TT3.8741.873301.6498796478815.039217118780.63023584316841163111122.5WETL
2025-12-28 19:00:01FORECAST20269017036.35626.631.47849.845118400.0711.1511.22TT4.35642.3563301.6412904692415.0353458377680.64911092944804163111122.5WETL
2025-12-28 15:00:01FORECAST20269017036.28427.5931.93749.837049600.0711.1511.22TT4.28442.2843301.6352186582415.0326093533770.6463364070541163111122.5WETL
2025-12-28 11:00:02FORECAST20269017036.24828.1332.18949.840690400.0711.1511.22TT4.24842.2483301.6379583932415.0338440971660.64494621571386163111122.5WETL
2025-12-28 07:00:02FORECAST20269017037.09427.73432.41449.52537383333300.0711.1511.22TT5.09444.0943301.4005858719514.9269766888940.67707007431579163111122.5WETL
2025-12-28 03:00:04FORECAST20269017036.527.21231.85649.50943303333300.0711.1511.22TT4.543.53301.3885804767314.9215777421240.65463607111224163111122.5WETL
2025-12-27 23:00:02FORECAST20269017036.69826.92431.81144.8253400.0511.1511.2TT4.69843.6983297.8397378211813.3507675133450.66217947458352163111122.5WETL
2025-12-27 19:00:02FORECAST20269017036.4126.16831.28944.831047200.0511.1511.2TT4.4143.413297.8440875496313.3526623471780.65118662833202163111122.5WETL
2025-12-27 15:00:03FORECAST20269017036.33826.43831.38844.816877600.0511.1511.2TT4.33843.3383297.8332881077513.3479580183310.64841803656917163111122.5WETL
2025-12-27 11:00:02FORECAST20269017036.7727.26632.01845.06319559112200.0511.1511.2TT4.7743.773298.0209654390613.4297770558350.66490666458624163111122.5WETL
2025-12-27 07:00:05FORECAST20269017036.55427.28431.91945.0090504217800.0511.1511.2TT4.55443.5543297.9797206201413.411784270060.65669961413738163111122.5WETL
2025-12-27 03:00:05FORECAST20269017036.87827.26632.07245.06153250637400.0611.1511.21TT4.87843.8783298.019698676813.4292243394640.66898117246487163111122.5WETL
2025-12-26 23:00:01FORECAST20269017036.64426.40231.52342.06441872225300.0411.4211.46TT4.64439.6443295.7280976667412.4396305281890.66012847372667163111122.5WETL
2025-12-26 19:00:02FORECAST20269017037.09427.30232.19842.12657605744700.0611.4211.48TT5.09440.0943295.7758006895312.46002176370.67707007431579163111122.5WETL
2025-12-26 15:00:02FORECAST20269017036.30226.76231.53242.21929524641600.0711.4211.49TT4.30239.3023295.8469445970212.4904495016920.64703077330236163111122.5WETL
2025-12-26 11:00:03FORECAST20269017037.427.8632.6346.45135375413500.0611.4211.48TT5.439.43299.0764535668513.8925061441660.68838679638696163111122.5WETL
2025-12-26 07:00:05FORECAST20269017037.07627.33832.20745.97935225732200.0711.3311.4TT5.07640.0763298.7179840186713.7348594127910.67639911929219163111122.5WETL
2025-12-26 03:00:09FORECAST20269017036.7727.1431.95546.58015348532900.0911.4111.5TT4.7740.773299.1741980941913.9355800660770.66490666458624163111122.5WETL
2025-12-25 23:00:03FORECAST20269017036.62626.94231.78446.9284010759300.0611.6111.67TT4.62635.6263299.4383188366514.0521615238690.65944374900521163111122.5WETL
2025-12-25 19:00:02FORECAST20269017036.57227.44632.00947.70523651223200.0611.7811.84TT4.57236.5723300.0266514581614.3128423677840.65738642926863163111122.5WETL
2025-12-25 15:00:02FORECAST20269017036.37428.1332.25247.80806617296400.0411.7911.83TT4.37436.3743300.104442045814.3474130241260.6498033270723163111122.5WETL
2025-12-25 11:00:03FORECAST20269017037.05828.47232.76549.28236397937800.1111.7711.88TT5.05837.0583301.2175165889714.8447112895020.67572759075968163112125WETL
2025-12-25 07:00:05FORECAST20269017037.18428.61632.951.13202443599300.1212.112.22TT5.18438.1843302.608102567715.4729648950210.68041618240048163112125WETL
2025-12-25 03:00:05FORECAST20269017036.62627.6832.15351.40575117489200.112.1612.26TT4.62636.6263302.8133376047715.5663470853490.65944374900521163112125WETL
2025-12-24 23:00:03FORECAST20269017037.32827.60832.46853.69805095102900.0812.1112.19TT5.32836.3283304.5264702667416.352477916320.68573946826645163111122.5WETL
2025-12-24 19:00:05FORECAST20269017038.08427.51832.80153.08266026869200.11212.1TT6.08440.0843304.067541771316.1407140185820.71303766909264164112126WETL
2025-12-24 15:00:03FORECAST20269017038.01228.29233.15252.72824094167800.0911.9112TT6.01240.0123303.8029073225516.0189928960860.7104867557622164111123WETL
2025-12-24 11:00:03FORECAST20269017037.86827.89632.88252.77922858362200.111.7811.88TT5.86841.8683303.8409929621216.0364932206230.70535326512366164112126WETL
2025-12-24 07:00:04FORECAST20269017037.9428.09433.01751.93224831101800.0712.0212.09TT5.9443.943303.2076940569715.7462572575780.70792525465796164111123WETL
2025-12-24 03:00:04FORECAST20269017037.95828.99433.47652.04131397628700.0611.8111.87TT5.95843.9583303.2893204135915.7835747492990.70856661713209164111123WETL
2025-12-23 23:00:02FORECAST20269017038.91230.25434.58350.06355972479700.0112.0112.02TT6.91243.9123301.8056213445515.1094637494620.7415819343632164111123WETL
2025-12-23 19:00:04FORECAST20269017038.4829.58834.03448.32170730485700.0111.7511.76TT6.4843.483300.4927072364814.5203206463260.7268741486087164111123WETL
2025-12-23 15:00:04FORECAST20269017038.329.5733.93548.42199266068800.0111.5511.56TT6.344.33300.5684546030114.5541235028210.72062591295761164111123WETL
2025-12-23 11:00:02FORECAST20269017039.61429.91234.76348.15161306591200.0111.6111.62TT7.61442.6143300.3641878172814.4630201506340.76457761334014164111123WETL
2025-12-23 07:00:05FORECAST20269017038.60630.57834.59248.6570080581500.0111.7411.75TT6.60643.6063300.7458904664914.6333952158830.73120636869542164111123WETL
2025-12-23 03:00:06FORECAST20269017037.7631.58634.67348.7799617605760011.7711.77TT5.7642.763300.8386779196814.6748992050240.70147583622423164111123WETL
2025-12-22 23:00:03FORECAST20269017038.82230.41634.61946.6428160837530012.1412.14TT6.82241.8223299.2217404054113.956544605990.7385519462611164111123WETL
2025-12-22 19:00:04FORECAST20269017037.63428.27432.95446.9556952550530011.9711.97TT5.63435.6343299.4590096365614.0613059978740.69692309389112163111122.5WETL
2025-12-22 15:00:04FORECAST20269017038.44428.25633.3546.9965107232090011.9811.98TT6.44439.4443299.4899477950314.0749825430420.72563005414811164111123WETL
2025-12-22 11:00:04FORECAST20269017037.07630.25433.66553.5296160717070.3854332790.64543327912.1612.805433279TT5.07632.0763304.4009310031616.2944649684690.67639911929219163113127.5WETL
2025-12-22 07:00:05FORECAST20269017034.57429.17431.87452.4696997396780.3692915380.62929153811.9412.569291538TT2.57430.5743303.6097119060515.930310421760.57846344635599163113127.5WETL
2025-12-22 03:00:06FORECAST20269017034.1628.72431.44253.4366208266790.3685041360.62850413612.2112.838504136TT2.1628.163304.3315960094416.2624521015350.56158722377271163113127.5WETL
2025-12-21 23:00:03FORECAST20269017034.84430.70432.77458.7260602839470.5838585832.08385858312.1314.213858583TT2.84414.8443308.2493623784818.1022706375270.589394541785931631151212.5WETL
2025-12-21 19:00:04FORECAST20269017034.5229.35431.93759.5173485293640.5838585832.08385858312.1114.193858583TT2.5214.523308.8309384837518.3807986023880.576269666786411631151212.5WETL
2025-12-21 15:00:02FORECAST20269017035.22230.21832.7258.0250084224580.5854333872.10543338712.0414.145433387TT3.22214.2223307.7331301933917.8562174713410.604580367213091631151212.5WETL
2025-12-21 11:00:02FORECAST20269017032.73824.7128.72460.5223193723851.6783473632.24834736312.4214.668347363TT0.73819.7383309.5678826973918.7357662640440.502953646082181631151212.5WETL
2025-12-21 07:00:05FORECAST20269017032.73824.7128.72459.9396394527961.6783473632.24834736312.4814.728347363TT0.73825.7383309.1408332065118.5297900825350.502953646082181631151212.5WETL
2025-12-21 03:00:05FORECAST20269017032.73825.30429.02158.3747173339951.9003947272.43039472712.4614.890394727TT0.73832.7383307.9907595635617.9788735310050.502953646082181631151212.5WETL
2025-12-20 23:00:05FORECAST20269017035.88828.54432.21644.5913614359420.1625985130.24259851312.9613.202598513TT3.88830.8883297.6613573402113.273125170670.630940874637163112125WETL
2025-12-20 19:00:05FORECAST20269017035.88828.54432.21645.7421399461770.1625985130.26259851313.0513.312598513TT3.88833.8883298.5376667718613.6557517326830.630940874637163112125WETL
2025-12-20 15:00:03FORECAST20269017035.94229.0332.48647.7625100536150.165354420.3153544213.3113.62535442TT3.94230.9423300.0699813707214.3320955020070.63305331987427163112125WETL
2025-12-20 11:00:04FORECAST20269017033.7124.0828.89566.0790163405761.2586620972.02866209712.8814.908662097TT1.7121.713313.6088211658720.7229624183680.543116636494521631151212.5WETL
2025-12-20 07:00:06FORECAST20269017027.51822.51425.01666.6050739935591.2027565551.92275655512.8914.812756555TT-4.48211.5183313.9884335107220.9132228471030.296534681501471621151210WETL
2025-12-20 03:00:06FORECAST20269017029.22822.47825.85370.1938876384131.5397646112.25976461113.1315.389764611TT-2.77213.2283316.5646940956622.2209065676390.360581889648341621151210WETL
2025-12-19 23:00:04FORECAST20269017032.925.10629.00354.5317829603530.7814964852.32149648512.9315.251496485TT0.917.93305.1470839565916.6402145533050.509660603070041631151212.5WETL
2025-12-19 19:00:03FORECAST20269017032.3625.10628.73354.0977091178840.8094492562.27944925613.0215.299449256TT0.3616.363304.8241319410916.4902872218610.487304109993171621151210WETL
2025-12-19 15:00:04FORECAST20269017029.60617.88823.74753.1622548708090.2173229521.48732295213.0814.567322952TT-2.39410.6063304.1269399599316.1680738952290.37536749428181162114128WETL
2025-12-19 11:00:04FORECAST20269017025.30424.78225.04355.3459493108190.1602363071.27023630713.314.570236307TT-6.69614.3043305.7518663174116.9221272948920.22236683730641161114126WETL
2025-12-19 07:00:06FORECAST20269017025.30424.78225.04361.1499370767090.1602363071.42023630713.4714.890236307TT-6.69622.3043310.0271608687318.9581413791940.22236683730641161114126WETL
2025-12-19 03:00:06FORECAST20269017025.6124.9825.29567.852039918150.165354422.2053544213.415.60535442TT-6.3922.613314.8862421928821.3656738749470.23194522710371161115127.5WETL