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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, December 28, 2025

[ Saturday, December 27, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, December 29, 2025 ]

DAY 89 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/29/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.59°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 15.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.83°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.400
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 50

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.70 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 12.59 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.29 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 48 in
SWE DAY: 4
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 301.33 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 14.44 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 169

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-29 07:00:03OBSERVATION20268916930.5900615.0600222.8250447.9362558333330.0099999999999980.712.5913.29TT-1.4099449.590064301.33049707068 14.4446557979660.4002817150087616 2113126WETL
2025-12-29 03:00:03OBSERVATION20268916930.5900615.0600222.8250447.9362558333330.0099999999999980.712.5913.29TT-1.4099449.590064301.33049707068 14.4446557979660.4002817150087616 2113126WETL
2025-12-28 11:00:02FORECAST20268916928.11214.6321.3715000.6912.5913.28TT-3.88847.1124302.8810203658415.1440510182920.29351792031327162113126WETL
2025-12-28 07:00:02FORECAST20268916928.81415.06221.93849.70790583333300.6912.5913.28TT-3.18647.8144302.6620589095915.0446971236010.32245877349589162113126WETL
2025-12-28 03:00:04FORECAST20268916928.59814.93621.76749.70790583333300.6912.5913.28TT-3.40247.5984302.6620589095915.0446971236010.3134276868996162113126WETL
2025-12-27 23:00:01FORECAST20268916928.83214.0921.4614500.6712.5913.26TT-3.16847.8324299.1103864796313.4599673915840.32321620846906162113126WETL
2025-12-27 19:00:01FORECAST20268916929.3915.78222.5864500.6712.5913.26TT-2.6148.394299.1103864796313.4599673915840.34704674109095162113126WETL
2025-12-27 15:00:02FORECAST20268916929.2115.29622.2534500.6712.5913.26TT-2.7948.214299.1103864796313.4599673915840.33928750442502162113126WETL
2025-12-27 11:00:02FORECAST20268916929.10215.33222.21745.24838439112200.6712.5913.26TT-2.89848.1024299.2988323061113.5427886120010.33466418827573162113126WETL
2025-12-27 07:00:04FORECAST20268916928.5815.5322.05545.1847928217800.6712.5913.26TT-3.4247.584299.2505975778913.5215762533510.31268001946728162113126WETL
2025-12-27 03:00:04FORECAST20268916928.70614.921.80345.26620450637400.6812.5913.27TT-3.29447.7064299.3123476125813.5487339383140.31792970522609162113126WETL
2025-12-26 23:00:01FORECAST20268916929.42614.73822.08242.22687712225300.9312.5913.52TT-2.57444.4264296.9983629531212.5413133779320.34860643764779162113126WETL
2025-12-26 19:00:02FORECAST20268916930.30815.67422.99142.35260085744700.9512.5913.54TT-1.69244.3084297.0944370256912.5827221083170.38755975525976162113126WETL
2025-12-26 15:00:02FORECAST20268916929.53414.97222.25342.40920724641600.9612.5913.55TT-2.46643.5344297.1376838090212.6013736133770.35330080409703162113126WETL
2025-12-26 11:00:03FORECAST20268916930.1115.51222.81146.71860815413500.9512.5913.54TT-1.8943.114300.4118395754114.0348230179860.37869989241216162113126WETL
2025-12-26 07:00:05FORECAST20268916930.2917.02423.65746.21305225732200.8712.5913.46TT-1.7144.294300.0295860897113.8652829407060.38675181214928162113126WETL
2025-12-26 03:00:09FORECAST20268916929.94816.30423.12646.78748228532900.9712.5913.56TT-2.05244.9484300.4638776895114.0579483547790.37149778463847162113126WETL
2025-12-25 23:00:03FORECAST20268916929.35416.73623.04547.1227410759300.9712.7613.73TT-2.64640.3544300.7170537868314.1706118627130.34548962992685162113126WETL
2025-12-25 19:00:02FORECAST20268916929.44417.54623.49547.90872771223201.1412.7613.9TT-2.55641.4444301.3097597826814.4353672384660.34938724811216162114128WETL
2025-12-25 15:00:01FORECAST20268916929.2117.49223.35148.00043817296401.1312.7613.89TT-2.7941.214301.3788408223914.4663164155350.33928750442502162114128WETL
2025-12-25 11:00:03FORECAST20268916929.04818.03223.5449.49047997937801.1812.7613.94TT-2.95241.0484302.4989652804514.9708189849950.33236183600642162114128WETL
2025-12-25 07:00:05FORECAST20268916930.54217.38423.96351.37074283599301.4812.814.28TT-1.45841.5424303.906397996315.6118974176810.39810612959954162114128WETL
2025-12-25 03:00:05FORECAST20268916929.37216.80823.0951.58729917489201.4312.8914.32TT-2.62841.3724304.0680656217315.6860502707590.34626786087164162114128WETL
2025-12-24 23:00:03FORECAST20268916929.6617.38423.52253.93499815102901.1613.0914.25TT-2.3439.664305.81501725916.4941323904210.35880584945217162114128WETL
2025-12-24 19:00:04FORECAST20268916929.60617.58223.59453.35473626869201.0713.0914.16TT-2.39442.6064305.3842059721216.2936937702660.35644287453534162114128WETL
2025-12-24 15:00:03FORECAST20268916929.06617.18623.12653.00622094167801.0513.0114.06TT-2.93443.0664305.1251478826416.1735310035290.33312858999064162114128WETL
2025-12-24 11:00:03FORECAST20268916930.2917.36623.82853.02798378362200.913.0413.94TT-1.7145.294305.1413313319416.1810295695830.38675181214928162113126WETL
2025-12-24 07:00:04FORECAST20268916930.36217.65424.00852.20088031101800.8513.314.15TT-1.63847.3624304.5256448809715.8965067400670.38998649377823162113126WETL
2025-12-24 03:00:04FORECAST20268916931.51419.81425.66452.31781797628700.7913.1413.93TT-0.48646.5144304.6127704820615.9366754793330.44263112402634162113126WETL
2025-12-23 23:00:02FORECAST20268916933.06220.55226.80750.53145172479700.7313.3514.08TT1.06246.0624303.2789940933115.3251278491710.51482717440474163113127.5WETL
2025-12-23 19:00:03FORECAST20268916932.84620.55226.69948.78772970485700.7813.0413.82TT0.84645.8464301.9712077788414.7324896637630.50472834474266163113127.5WETL
2025-12-23 15:00:03FORECAST20268916932.91819.41826.16848.86794146068800.812.8213.62TT0.91846.9184302.0314935361714.759657345410.50809527786314163113127.5WETL
2025-12-23 11:00:02FORECAST20268916934.14219.74226.94248.55190426591200.6313.0513.68TT2.14244.1424301.7938943342714.6526682657540.56505030085605163113127.5WETL
2025-12-23 07:00:05FORECAST20268916934.41219.77827.09549.0233512581500.5813.2313.81TT2.41246.4124302.1482618842814.8123203743930.57747542420763163113127.5WETL
2025-12-23 03:00:06FORECAST20268916934.57420.87627.72549.16027776057600.5813.2513.83TT2.57445.5744302.2511044770214.8587482495310.58489448695151163113127.5WETL
2025-12-22 23:00:03FORECAST20268916933.20622.29827.75247.10637848375300.7113.4914.2TT1.20644.2064300.7047023144514.1651095190690.52155484768004163113127.5WETL
2025-12-22 19:00:04FORECAST20268916931.78423.19827.49147.34132485505300.7413.2914.03TT-0.21638.7844300.8820047955114.2441527320640.4551544943123162113126WETL
2025-12-22 15:00:04FORECAST20268916931.98223.19827.5947.39512912320900.6513.3914.04TT-0.01800000000000141.9824300.9225933450614.262265167680.46436742850918162113126WETL
2025-12-22 11:00:04FORECAST20268916931.33423.4527.39253.7579040717070.0129921331.02299213313.4614.482992133TT-0.66636.3344305.6836023411616.432909770950.4343131566356162114128WETL
2025-12-22 07:00:04FORECAST20268916931.62222.31626.96952.6061805396780.0133858341.03338583413.2314.263385834TT-0.37836.6224304.8275073969916.0358108875860.44763431200259162114128WETL
2025-12-22 03:00:05FORECAST20268916931.83822.3727.10453.5459432266790.0133858341.06338583413.4714.533385834TT-0.16234.8384305.5262363597416.3596905063790.45766493298624162114128WETL
2025-12-21 23:00:02FORECAST20268916931.11822.71226.91558.9121346839470.9972446332.04724463313.6415.687244633TT-0.88221.1184309.4842920089618.2323802933980.424370161748771621151210WETL
2025-12-21 19:00:04FORECAST20268916931.51424.09827.80659.318511014190.9972446332.04724463313.6215.667244633TT-0.48620.5144309.7818399238518.3757974835190.442631124026341621151210WETL
2025-12-21 15:00:02FORECAST20268916931.69424.3528.02258.2051788224581.0137800752.07378007513.5515.623780075TT-0.30619.6944308.9659279180817.9834170845190.450974455598721621151210WETL
2025-12-21 11:00:02FORECAST20268916932.97224.06228.51757.5329130429140.1696851311.42968513113.6215.049685131TT0.97227.9724308.472135606717.7473005540220.510620112374511631141210WETL
2025-12-21 07:00:05FORECAST20268916933.06226.02429.54356.9502331233250.1696851311.42968513113.6815.109685131TT1.06234.0624308.043463201817.5431470414590.514827174404741631141210WETL
2025-12-21 03:00:05FORECAST20268916932.55825.66429.11155.1198158567460.1720473371.33204733713.7215.052047337TT0.55840.5584306.6927072663816.904845549130.49125964261639162114128WETL
2025-12-20 23:00:04FORECAST20268916934.10624.69229.39944.55537658636100.8814.2215.1TT2.10636.1064298.7727597681313.3119328252160.56338847387737163113127.5WETL
2025-12-20 19:00:05FORECAST20268916934.10624.38629.24645.70615509659601.0114.215.21TT2.10639.1064299.6458253387613.6956585669810.563388473877371631141210WETL
2025-12-20 15:00:03FORECAST20268916933.69224.58429.13847.91060205361501.0814.4415.52TT1.69235.6924301.3111717941714.4359996461390.544204305133471631141210WETL
2025-12-20 11:00:04FORECAST20268916931.85625.75428.80555.7072150066620.7665358471.48653584714.2215.706535847TT-0.14428.8564307.1268627943117.1091821800040.45850212638139162114128WETL
2025-12-20 07:00:06FORECAST20268916930.25424.38627.3256.0230834182930.7192917271.46929172714.215.669291727TT-1.74625.2544307.3600581992417.2192581799470.38513740032505162114128WETL
2025-12-20 03:00:06FORECAST20268916930.39824.6227.50956.9344552006670.7208665311.38086653114.5315.910866531TT-1.60225.3984308.0318467006217.5376253763550.39160671064776162114128WETL
2025-12-19 23:00:03FORECAST20268916932.84625.66429.25550.7327827258751.0460635571.88606355714.6416.526063557TT0.84625.8464303.429619085515.3938289376590.504728344742661631151212.5WETL
2025-12-19 19:00:02FORECAST20268916932.30625.35828.83250.2914513801021.0185044871.79850448714.7516.548504487TT0.30625.3064303.0993381165115.2433056262270.479482173772021621151210WETL
2025-12-19 15:00:04FORECAST20268916930.43424.69227.56351.1596910854770.8220476881.60204768814.8116.412047688TT-1.56622.4344303.7487541704615.5396924309590.393228809429841621151210WETL
2025-12-19 11:00:04FORECAST20268916932.28824.69228.4953.5627390330321.043307651.3533076515.1216.47330765TT0.28830.2884305.538709152616.365490142830.47864148914711162114128WETL
2025-12-19 07:00:05FORECAST20268916932.86424.69228.77859.3667267989221.1814967011.51149670115.2816.791496701TT0.86437.8644309.8171230449718.3928285014390.50557011897241631151212.5WETL
2025-12-19 03:00:06FORECAST20268916932.77426.22229.49866.0205945491841.8625994312.23259943115.2717.502599431TT0.77437.7744314.6450481943520.7730531537480.50136107476611631151212.5WETL
2025-12-18 23:00:04FORECAST20268916931.31625.14228.22948.5540692220180.3555120031.97551200315.8617.835512003TT-0.68437.3164301.7955226138614.6534006958890.433482894368621621151210WETL
2025-12-18 19:00:03FORECAST20268916931.31625.14228.22948.6582895680570.3555120031.97551200315.9317.905512003TT-0.68437.3164301.8738969219814.6886674894680.433482894368621621151210WETL
2025-12-18 15:00:02FORECAST20268916928.43621.32624.88147.0530429759860.1311024331.75110243315.9317.681102433TT-3.56433.4364300.6644378894114.1471767173610.306726587263091621151210WETL
2025-12-18 11:00:03FORECAST20268916924.823.4524.12544.38156625163700.2215.3215.54TT-7.234.84298.6406724428313.2541407894550.17579255494189161112123WETL
2025-12-18 07:00:04FORECAST20268916924.823.4524.12544.98692163112600.2715.1815.45TT-7.226.84299.1004608055913.4556089900950.17579255494189161112123WETL
2025-12-18 03:00:07FORECAST20268916924.99824.4424.71949.5719835717960.0586614490.42866144914.8515.278661449TT-7.00222.9984302.5601126145514.9985049320090.18186145422425161112123WETL