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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 26, 2025

[ Thursday, December 25, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, December 27, 2025 ]

DAY 87 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/27/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.78°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.57°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.68°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.245
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 83

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.62 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.35 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 19.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 20.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 45 in
SWE DAY: 6
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 301.33 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 13.54 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 167

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-27 07:00:03OBSERVATION20268716726.7818.5700222.6750144.9392145833330.621.351920.35TT-5.2282.786301.32679444405 13.5413894752290.2449480718660616 1114126WETL
2025-12-27 03:00:03OBSERVATION20268716726.7818.5700222.6750144.9392145833330.621.351920.35TT-5.2282.786301.32679444405 13.5413894752290.2449480718660616 1114126WETL
2025-12-26 11:00:02FORECAST20268716722.51413.74818.13146.354574919440.8909453631.6209453631920.620945363TT-9.48678.5146302.3910654603714.0172092988520.1207149296816161115127.5WETL
2025-12-26 07:00:04FORECAST20268716722.92814.28818.60845.8019255338790.799213031.529213031920.52921303TT-9.07278.9286301.9759595893713.8310804141340.13035390174658161115127.5WETL
2025-12-26 03:00:09FORECAST20268716723.64814.34218.99546.2346351338690.8799217351.6099217351920.609921735TT-8.35279.6486302.3010258191713.9767776293440.14835413741684161115127.5WETL
2025-12-25 23:00:01FORECAST20268716723.23414.79219.01346.7406914275070.9141737221.8141737221920.814173722TT-8.76675.2346302.6807396201114.1475070516330.13781105966119161115127.5WETL
2025-12-25 19:00:01FORECAST20268716723.68415.2619.47247.5219314717661.0763785341.9763785341920.976378534TT-8.31675.6846303.2659770246714.4117849778840.14929569817933161115127.5WETL
2025-12-25 15:00:01FORECAST20268716722.92814.70218.81547.7339537305451.0913391721.9913391721920.991339172TT-9.07274.9286303.4246054937214.4836560793460.13035390174658161115127.5WETL
2025-12-25 11:00:03FORECAST20268716722.94615.00818.97748.7874291607661.0661423081.9661423081920.966142308TT-9.05474.9466304.2115175896514.8416978642940.13078469986659161115127.5WETL
2025-12-25 07:00:05FORECAST20268716723.0915.58419.33750.697711592061.3614180582.3014180581921.301418058TT-8.9175.096305.6330770025915.4948975908710.13426640722222161115127.5WETL
2025-12-25 03:00:04FORECAST20268716723.79215.0819.43651.0220985997371.3330715862.3630715861921.363071586TT-8.20875.7926305.8737891076315.6063226269250.15214420831912161115127.5WETL
2025-12-24 23:00:02FORECAST20268716724.27817.31220.79553.4423354031411.082677752.312677751921.31267775TT-7.72274.2786307.6634848436216.4422551483120.16540521018896161115127.5WETL
2025-12-24 19:00:04FORECAST20268716725.84417.58221.71352.7678640304620.9657485532.1957485531921.195748553TT-6.15676.8446307.1658378908116.2084851686250.21302814047296161115127.5WETL
2025-12-24 15:00:03FORECAST20268716725.86216.57421.21852.4686073675190.9590556362.1090556361921.109055636TT-6.13876.8626306.9447633774716.1049642731680.2136182082573161115127.5WETL
2025-12-24 11:00:03FORECAST20268716726.13217.6921.91152.4493552512150.7972445251.9772445251920.977244525TT-5.86877.1326306.9305352092916.0983086786380.22258262308129161115127.5WETL
2025-12-24 07:00:04FORECAST20268716726.8718.15822.51451.8189312536240.7814964852.2214964851921.221496485TT-5.1376.876306.4642392762115.8806493467480.2481471331161115127.5WETL
2025-12-24 03:00:03FORECAST20268716726.7818.57222.67651.965375250740.7314964582.0114964581921.011496458TT-5.2276.786306.5726238221415.9311614385220.24494807186606161115127.5WETL
2025-12-23 23:00:02FORECAST20268716726.49219.2222.85650.4858050920460.724409842.1544098419.0621.21440984TT-5.50874.4926305.4757241771615.422187871160.23486168351255161115127.5WETL
2025-12-23 19:00:03FORECAST20268716726.61819.92223.2748.7367357081490.7712602591.89126025919.0620.951260259TT-5.38273.6186304.173699423714.8244331981830.23924604522416161115127.5WETL
2025-12-23 15:00:03FORECAST20268716726.5119.65223.08148.8193903128220.7901579071.69015790719.0620.750157907TT-5.4974.516304.2353586424214.8525847205260.23548529384758161115127.5WETL
2025-12-23 11:00:02FORECAST20268716726.20419.00422.60448.5174347826710.6192916731.74929167319.0620.809291673TT-5.79671.2046304.0100411452414.7497873445420.22500879690211161115127.5WETL
2025-12-23 07:00:04FORECAST20268716726.63618.39222.51448.9919781361320.5681105431.90811054319.0320.938110543TT-5.36472.6366304.3640651003714.9113976228210.2398760069516161115127.5WETL
2025-12-23 03:00:05FORECAST20268716726.97818.1422.55949.2047545605760.5846459851.96464598519.0120.974645985TT-5.02271.9786304.5226643566114.9839629577990.252015183990911621151210WETL
2025-12-22 23:00:02FORECAST20268716727.44617.8722.65847.1335368837530.7059058931.95590589319.3821.335905893TT-4.55471.4466302.9751705844214.2802913776020.269136907037361621151210WETL
2025-12-22 19:00:04FORECAST20268716727.517.00622.25347.3413248550530.7405515811.77055158119.421.170551581TT-4.567.56303.1307853687714.350612983710.271149350000521621151210WETL
2025-12-22 15:00:03FORECAST20268716726.92417.9622.44247.3951291232090.6460633411.68606334119.4921.176063341TT-5.07667.9246303.1710666145714.3688318486190.250077196885261621151210WETL
2025-12-22 11:00:03FORECAST20268716725.1616.7920.97552.1051681241320.7586618271.86866182719.4921.358661827TT-6.8465.166306.6760482065815.9794070514480.19131697868873161115127.5WETL
2025-12-22 07:00:04FORECAST20268716725.68216.44821.06550.8629683778570.7736224651.80362246519.3421.143622465TT-6.31865.6826305.7557309530715.5516440748140.20776039400113161115127.5WETL
2025-12-22 03:00:05FORECAST20268716725.717.13221.41651.7505422625920.7960634221.92606342219.4821.406063422TT-6.363.76306.4136101450215.8570704816430.20834187887317161115127.5WETL
2025-12-21 23:00:02FORECAST20268716720.76815.67418.22151.7248155707790.5476380911.65763809119.6721.327638091TT-11.23249.7686306.3945621121515.8482022171410.085582801494309161115127.5WETL
2025-12-21 19:00:03FORECAST20268716720.91214.9917.95151.7833909662940.5476380911.59763809119.7121.307638091TT-11.08847.9126306.4379295035915.8683951103860.088154001531851161115127.5WETL
2025-12-21 15:00:02FORECAST20268716720.82215.4418.13151.4629989609040.5503939981.50039399819.7421.240393998TT-11.17846.8226306.2006423872215.7580033410020.086540363049323161115127.5WETL
2025-12-21 11:00:02FORECAST20268716723.70216.55620.12954.6367905358690.8566933761.93669337619.6821.616693376TT-8.29853.7026308.5427036490916.8577830706460.14976796744968161115127.5WETL
2025-12-21 07:00:04FORECAST20268716724.04416.95220.49854.0604549453870.8566933761.98669337619.6921.676693376TT-7.95657.0446308.118805507216.6570428029480.158929833791161115127.5WETL
2025-12-21 03:00:04FORECAST20268716726.09617.621.84852.5002615566490.7988193291.90881932919.7521.658819329TT-5.90464.0966306.9681557153716.1159084646190.22137514109477161115127.5WETL
2025-12-20 23:00:04FORECAST20268716726.58219.25622.91943.9441344430190.8003941331.62039413320.5422.160394133TT-5.41859.5826300.5762565181913.2085634268150.23798883369421161115127.5WETL
2025-12-20 19:00:04FORECAST20268716725.9719.0422.50544.9497387282320.9114178151.72141781520.5322.251417815TT-6.0358.976301.3347221337413.5449170296560.21717851895305161115127.5WETL
2025-12-20 15:00:02FORECAST20268716725.7919.43622.61346.8586392295220.9307091641.74070916420.7722.510709164TT-6.2155.796302.7691703487814.1873513231950.21126364193213161115127.5WETL
2025-12-20 11:00:04FORECAST20268716724.22417.81621.0251.9000993613340.7248035411.14480354120.9422.084803541TT-7.77650.2246306.5243175175315.9086425358250.16389598657234161114126WETL
2025-12-20 07:00:05FORECAST20268716724.33217.56420.94851.842219814230.7511815081.18118150820.9122.091181508TT-7.66850.3326306.4814780495515.8886801540350.16692337312655161114126WETL
2025-12-20 03:00:06FORECAST20268716723.97217.38420.67853.0100093892250.6598428761.08984287621.2422.329842876TT-8.02849.9726307.3445987289116.2923400643470.156971204761161114126WETL
2025-12-19 23:00:03FORECAST20268716723.37815.42219.446.2373675563710.3527560961.06275609621.0722.132756096TT-8.62248.3786302.3030773733313.9776985019330.1414188456107161114126WETL
2025-12-19 19:00:02FORECAST20268716723.52214.4518.98646.2648324519820.3263781291.04637812921.1722.216378129TT-8.47847.5226302.3236977421713.9869552223050.14508992358959161114126WETL
2025-12-19 15:00:03FORECAST20268716723.21614.75618.98646.1854677877920.3271655311.11716553121.1622.277165531TT-8.78447.2166302.2641076186113.9602092058250.1373645290719161114126WETL
2025-12-19 11:00:03FORECAST20268716724.2618.3221.2949.7481704078770.2389765071.29897650721.222.498976507TT-7.7453.266304.927326788715.1695766151020.16490114224037161114126WETL
2025-12-19 07:00:05FORECAST20268716724.2620.15622.20850.0588407149140.2500001351.34000013521.3322.670000135TT-7.7460.266305.1584210904115.275876794180.16490114224037161114126WETL
2025-12-19 03:00:06FORECAST20268716723.9918.9521.4749.7739047386940.1897638821.18976388221.4122.599763882TT-8.0158.996304.9464763802915.1783768657530.15745937091661161114126WETL
2025-12-18 23:00:04FORECAST20268716725.37619.52622.45143.9465482595110.5429136791.05291367922.4923.542913679TT-6.62458.3766300.5780794323913.2093690735270.19802232177756161114126WETL
2025-12-18 19:00:02FORECAST20268716725.37619.59822.48744.050768605550.5429136791.05291367922.5623.612913679TT-6.62458.3766300.6567759790313.2441620683430.19802232177756161114126WETL
2025-12-18 15:00:02FORECAST20268716724.63820.26422.45144.6078034763350.649606651.1796066522.5423.71960665TT-7.36259.6386301.0770386965113.4303853734110.17569494441926161114126WETL
2025-12-18 11:00:02FORECAST20268716728.56225.44827.00543.0990279810610.0598425520.32984255222.1922.519842552TT-3.43863.5626299.9373446779512.927008010840.31218105903582162112124WETL
2025-12-18 07:00:04FORECAST20268716727.33824.60225.9743.4933226442360.0874016220.39740162222.0122.407401622TT-4.66257.3386300.2356074121313.0582441424640.26513460420967162112124WETL
2025-12-18 03:00:07FORECAST20268716727.44624.65626.05146.4132371184060.0885827250.44858272521.6322.078582725TT-4.55453.4466302.4350935980914.0369917120950.26913690703736162112124WETL
2025-12-17 23:00:04FORECAST20268716722.71218.17620.44449.89872817727200.8822.423.28TT-9.28840.7126305.0393430218115.2210752608190.12526060301378161113124.5WETL
2025-12-17 19:00:03FORECAST20268716724.3519.3121.8347.42411666223200.8522.4423.29TT-7.6544.356303.1927662205114.3786491163860.16743141337477161113124.5WETL
2025-12-17 15:00:02FORECAST20268716724.4418.10421.27248.41477607337100.8922.5823.47TT-7.5651.446303.9333984290814.7148674261630.16998650240868161113124.5WETL
2025-12-17 11:00:04FORECAST20268716727.33816.53821.93858.064377139330.4696852931.10968529322.2623.369685293TT-4.66245.3386311.0509342599318.060978756410.26513460420967162114128WETL
2025-12-17 07:00:07FORECAST20268716727.17617.63622.40654.9331458267890.4696852931.10968529322.2123.319685293TT-4.82449.1766308.7604332086516.9611819029930.25918828209252162114128WETL
2025-12-17 03:00:05FORECAST20268716726.34819.16622.75755.5755695872390.4350396051.05503960522.4723.525039605TT-5.65249.3486309.2318538068717.1857364098340.22990574500229161114126WETL
2025-12-16 23:00:04FORECAST20268716719.86815.45817.66354.816040050.1543307921.24433079222.4823.724330792TT-12.13243.8686308.67441623616.9203091628030.070766417906748161114126WETL
2025-12-16 19:00:04FORECAST20268716719.86815.45817.66352.8526103499280.1543307921.24433079222.1523.394330792TT-12.13245.8686307.2284133271716.2378236180070.070766417906748161114126WETL
2025-12-16 15:00:03FORECAST20268716729.24624.90827.07746.2595727735970.4590553661.33905536621.8623.199055366TT-2.75468.2466302.3197489396213.9851824269680.3399462515688162114128WETL
2025-12-16 11:00:04FORECAST20268716724.83623.39624.11650.20716610609801.1121.4122.52TT-7.16455.8366305.2686896808415.3266758097970.18152307608464161114126WETL
2025-12-16 07:00:05FORECAST20268716724.83623.39624.11657.14891553333201.121.4522.55TT-7.16436.8366310.3831559392817.7380607617430.18152307608464161114126WETL
2025-12-16 03:00:06FORECAST20268716723.19823.0923.14452.40652146329500.7721.0621.83TT-8.80239.1986306.8988766432916.0835025658680.13691898463926161113124.5WETL