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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 25, 2025

[ Wednesday, December 24, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, December 26, 2025 ]

DAY 86 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/26/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.31°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.97°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.64°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.484
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 96

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.18 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.78 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 24.19 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 24.97 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 42 in
SWE DAY: 7
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 300.20 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 12.59 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 166

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-26 07:00:03OBSERVATION20268616633.3100423.9700228.6400341.9470945833330.180000000000010.7800000000000124.1924.97TT1.3100496.310047300.19767681463 12.592420343040.4839865856537716 2113126WETL
2025-12-26 03:00:08OBSERVATION20268616633.3100423.9700228.6400341.9470945833330.180000000000010.7800000000000124.1924.97TT1.3100496.310047300.19767681463 12.592420343040.4839865856537716 2113126WETL
2025-12-25 11:00:02FORECAST20268616628.5820.51624.54843.2743819388030.3519686940.95196869424.1925.141968694TT-3.4291.587301.1996336963813.0342279884050.29194291008432162113126WETL
2025-12-25 07:00:05FORECAST20268616629.40820.69625.05243.841588342960.3913387940.99133879424.1925.181338794TT-2.59292.4087301.6267834079213.2237972713810.3231660517309162114128WETL
2025-12-25 03:00:04FORECAST20268616629.321.30825.30444.2045957266730.4822837251.08228372524.1925.272283725TT-2.792.37301.8998328951213.3453600630790.31901567316034162114128WETL
2025-12-24 23:00:02FORECAST20268616629.46223.68426.57347.9752152149210.5503939981.28039399824.1925.470393998TT-2.53890.4627304.7212048191614.6190653817490.32524956115194162114128WETL
2025-12-24 19:00:02FORECAST20268616629.53423.4526.49247.9797460515860.55118141.281181424.1925.4711814TT-2.46690.5347304.7245787966414.620607906340.32803607794214162114128WETL
2025-12-24 15:00:02FORECAST20268616629.73224.38627.05947.6631375043090.4661419841.19614198424.1925.386141984TT-2.26890.7327304.4887164865214.5128875624080.33574808225988162114128WETL
2025-12-24 11:00:03FORECAST20268616630.27223.95427.11348.587631615690.4988191671.22881916724.1925.418819167TT-1.72891.2727305.1769009574414.8278228413380.35712681927444162114128WETL
2025-12-24 07:00:03FORECAST20268616630.27224.11627.19448.1215132825580.4767719111.48677191124.1925.676771911TT-1.72890.2727304.8301289676314.6688871000390.35712681927444162114128WETL
2025-12-24 03:00:03FORECAST20268616630.41623.59427.00548.4771888172580.4444884291.33448842924.1925.524488429TT-1.58490.4167305.0947733766814.790136936140.3629077819249162114128WETL
2025-12-23 23:00:01FORECAST20268616631.65824.24227.9546.9597213530830.4122049471.54220494724.1925.732204947TT-0.34287.6587303.964016692714.2740655252530.413939307146371621151210WETL
2025-12-23 19:00:03FORECAST20268616631.38823.3627.37445.0086779281630.3259844281.22598442824.1925.415984428TT-0.61287.3887302.503757470513.6152941920490.40268799869256162114128WETL
2025-12-23 15:00:03FORECAST20268616631.87423.05427.46444.9980766703370.2885828331.00858283324.1925.198582833TT-0.12687.8747302.4958031712213.6117293435540.42299196697802162114128WETL
2025-12-23 11:00:02FORECAST20268616630.41622.53226.47445.5499892278270.2590552581.23905525824.1925.429055258TT-1.58485.4167302.9096277476713.7975302809110.3629077819249162114128WETL
2025-12-23 07:00:04FORECAST20268616630.50624.67427.5946.2475646370490.3846458771.42464587724.1925.614645877TT-1.49485.5067303.4318411666214.0329836872920.36653690471325162114128WETL
2025-12-23 03:00:05FORECAST20268616630.5624.2627.4146.3458224457460.4531498511.44314985124.1925.633149851TT-1.4484.567303.5053238384114.0662038499540.36872014192794162114128WETL
2025-12-22 23:00:02FORECAST20268616631.78423.61227.69843.6225027175550.3629923221.31299232224.5625.872992322TT-0.21683.7847301.4618681508713.150521162650.41921479339345162114128WETL
2025-12-22 19:00:03FORECAST20268616630.79424.40427.59943.5697421295060.4106301431.11063014324.5625.670630143TT-1.20679.7947301.4221392534613.1328848793970.37822903146751162114128WETL
2025-12-22 15:00:03FORECAST20268616630.88424.92627.90544.1249887123430.4070868341.20708683424.5625.767086834TT-1.11680.8847301.839975072213.3186854929950.38190638030083162114128WETL
2025-12-22 11:00:03FORECAST20268616630.23623.70226.96947.8250150708860.4137797511.28377975124.5625.843779751TT-1.76480.2367304.6093333175114.5679459566430.35568662570881162114128WETL
2025-12-22 07:00:04FORECAST20268616630.0222.7326.37546.5136854484280.4748034061.12480340624.4925.614803406TT-1.9880.027303.6308187375114.1229883952050.34708928509978162114128WETL
2025-12-22 03:00:05FORECAST20268616629.58822.71226.1547.162974764660.4909451471.18094514724.6725.850945147TT-2.41277.5887304.1157259964714.3430023107080.33013227124256162114128WETL
2025-12-21 23:00:02FORECAST20268616627.06821.32624.19747.8761630870490.4484254391.23842543924.7826.018425439TT-4.93269.0687304.6474339813414.5853502333420.23885641784026161114126WETL
2025-12-21 19:00:03FORECAST20268616626.56419.02222.79347.9283014660430.448819141.1788191424.8225.99881914TT-5.43666.5647304.6862672820214.6030952708560.22240939720784161114126WETL
2025-12-21 15:00:02FORECAST20268616626.02418.64422.33447.5313704404780.452756151.0827561524.8525.93275615TT-5.97666.0247304.3904987152314.4680975529950.20552561727807161114126WETL
2025-12-21 11:00:02FORECAST20268616627.39219.63423.51349.0720878010040.4078742361.19787423624.825.997874236TT-4.60870.3927305.5368806815514.993332635250.24977047501215162114128WETL
2025-12-21 07:00:04FORECAST20268616627.60820.06623.83748.5348900126470.4078742361.21787423624.8426.057874236TT-4.39272.6087305.1376840695314.8098239350290.25719078524452162114128WETL
2025-12-21 03:00:04FORECAST20268616628.63421.224.91747.4339625500380.3696852391.19968523924.926.099685239TT-3.36677.6347304.3178707719314.4350024855030.29393589069991162114128WETL
2025-12-20 23:00:04FORECAST20268616629.06622.2825.67338.7903132714850.4799215190.91992151925.6826.599921519TT-2.93473.0667297.8010371866411.5517955250430.3101011141038162113126WETL
2025-12-20 19:00:04FORECAST20268616628.97621.3825.17838.989267714790.4637797780.92377977825.6626.583779778TT-3.02472.9767297.9526521706311.6169557218120.30670153742795162113126WETL
2025-12-20 15:00:02FORECAST20268616629.10222.29825.740.8466520824590.4425199240.96251992425.8626.822519924TT-2.89870.1027299.3643979040612.2280334070620.31146552097291162113126WETL
2025-12-20 11:00:03FORECAST20268616624.69217.18620.93946.7548793638490.0598425520.5998425522626.599842552TT-7.30865.6927303.8110424039114.2046486370.16726028859897161113124.5WETL
2025-12-20 07:00:05FORECAST20268616623.95416.39420.17446.3620571147550.0720472830.62204728325.9626.582047283TT-8.04665.9547303.5174632644414.0716939671910.14817324778554161113124.5WETL
2025-12-20 03:00:05FORECAST20268616623.84616.32220.08448.0472617641480.07874020.618740226.2926.9087402TT-8.15465.8467304.7748511124914.6435970505310.14550705837738161113124.5WETL
2025-12-19 23:00:03FORECAST20268616625.0716.6120.8443.3060534171370.2370080020.91700800226.127.017008002TT-6.9365.077301.2235009619913.0448010231570.17762290448376161113124.5WETL
2025-12-19 19:00:02FORECAST20268616623.52215.8919.70643.4876806843970.2448820220.94488202226.1927.134882022TT-8.47863.5227301.3603361323813.1054620686670.13770250155042161113124.5WETL
2025-12-19 15:00:03FORECAST20268616623.66615.99819.83243.3974416744440.224409570.9844095726.2127.19440957TT-8.33463.6667301.2923593502713.0753175918590.141135311966161113124.5WETL
2025-12-19 11:00:03FORECAST20268616625.48420.55223.01847.9429785257640.4736223031.41362230326.0927.503622303TT-6.51669.4847304.6971980075614.6080912209370.18942573926274161114126WETL
2025-12-19 07:00:05FORECAST20268616628.14822.65825.40348.2540015745330.4755908081.43559080826.2227.655590808TT-3.85276.1487304.9287363246814.7140317227310.27623001560016162114128WETL
2025-12-19 03:00:06FORECAST20268616628.25622.9125.58348.345415828160.4377955121.35779551226.2927.647795512TT-3.74475.2567304.9967540712614.7451949018140.28011912074403162114128WETL
2025-12-18 23:00:03FORECAST20268616627.75220.78624.26939.4934244256820.0625984590.83259845927.4128.242598459TT-4.24872.7527298.3365063339411.7823302663210.2622004947931162113126WETL
2025-12-18 19:00:02FORECAST20268616627.84220.44424.14339.5916079709040.0625984590.83259845927.4828.312598459TT-4.15872.8427298.4112040220711.8145794037670.26535672505304162113126WETL
2025-12-18 15:00:02FORECAST20268616627.89621.23624.56639.2887421142890.0606299540.90062995427.4128.310629954TT-4.10474.8967298.1807248579311.7151456023950.26725966402364162113126WETL
2025-12-18 11:00:02FORECAST20268616629.28225.2527.26642.6814926886090.0704724790.53047247927.1727.700472479TT-2.71875.2827300.7524845286912.8365649694920.31832612406637162113126WETL
2025-12-18 07:00:04FORECAST20268616628.99424.22426.60942.8568419569850.0893701270.56937012726.9927.559370127TT-3.00669.9947300.884800743112.8949723527060.30738013766946162113126WETL
2025-12-18 03:00:07FORECAST20268616628.86823.4526.15945.7504680817350.0897638280.55976382826.6727.229763828TT-3.13265.8687303.059803411113.8651278628160.30264388922935162113126WETL
2025-12-17 23:00:04FORECAST20268616627.37420.78624.0849.8987281772720.5303152471.23031524727.2928.520315247TT-4.62658.3747306.1501017401515.2765007081760.24915728041107162114128WETL
2025-12-17 19:00:03FORECAST20268616629.15622.22625.69147.4241166622320.5188979181.19889791827.3328.528897918TT-2.84460.1567304.3105286152814.4316580105970.31351698641697162114128WETL
2025-12-17 15:00:02FORECAST20268616630.2923.50426.89748.4147760733710.5271656391.32716563927.3828.707165639TT-1.7167.297305.0483517620614.7688476421110.35784768129156162114128WETL
2025-12-17 11:00:04FORECAST20268616622.76617.49220.12953.2078989078110.4311025951.31110259526.8328.141102595TT-9.23457.7667308.5920682095216.4195355690450.12061546774195161114126WETL
2025-12-17 07:00:07FORECAST20268616623.48618.4120.94850.3000002136390.4311025951.31110259526.7828.091102595TT-8.51462.4867306.4473107845815.4142997979330.13685325211625161114126WETL
2025-12-17 03:00:05FORECAST20268616624.20618.39221.29951.228036739130.4039372261.26393722627.0728.333937226TT-7.79463.2067307.1335177012415.7338471286170.1545204078475161114126WETL
2025-12-16 23:00:04FORECAST20268616625.21420.60622.9152.8232201407320.7763783721.36637837227.4428.806378372TT-6.78664.2147308.3092518933516.2858874841870.18167465646609161114126WETL
2025-12-16 19:00:04FORECAST20268616625.21420.60622.9150.859790440660.7763783721.36637837227.1128.476378372TT-6.78666.2147306.8614233206415.606907684410.18167465646609161114126WETL
2025-12-16 15:00:03FORECAST20268616629.3922.76626.07843.0684562338430.700787781.1707877826.8127.98078778TT-2.6179.397301.0444035937512.9655177206210.32247277442943162114128WETL
2025-12-16 11:00:04FORECAST20268616627.75221.48824.6250.2071661060980.2090552311.39905523126.3627.759055231TT-4.24870.7527306.3785785356715.3824001838910.2622004947931162114128WETL
2025-12-16 07:00:05FORECAST20268616627.519.07623.28857.1489155333320.2094489321.37944893226.4127.789448932TT-4.552.57311.4736467020417.8003811262340.25346638169676162114128WETL
2025-12-16 03:00:06FORECAST20268616628.14816.64622.39752.4065214632950.0409449040.97094490426.127.070944904TT-3.85256.1487308.0025825427116.1413439527750.27623001560016162113126WETL
2025-12-15 23:00:04FORECAST20268616629.55220.37224.96263.4871681085460.4090553391.74905533927.1928.939055339TT-2.44845.5527316.0479508049820.0649893831180.328734211970391621151210WETL
2025-12-15 19:00:02FORECAST20268616629.55220.37224.96264.891260961320.4090553391.74905533927.1728.919055339TT-2.44846.5527317.0513564480320.573862309410.328734211970391621151210WETL
2025-12-15 15:00:03FORECAST20268616624.94420.24622.59564.9984706640580.1425197621.55251976227.2828.832519762TT-7.05634.9447317.1278246728920.6128236087570.17412467216405161115127.5WETL
2025-12-15 11:00:03FORECAST20268616632.55829.42630.99266.6355757871780.0503937280.23039372830.1530.380393728TT0.55857.5587318.292920674921.2096320381550.45190559329367162112124WETL
2025-12-15 07:00:06FORECAST20268616632.55829.42630.99264.5840400481680.0503937280.23039372829.9830.210393728TT0.55857.5587316.8321131719920.4622978856460.45190559329367162112124WETL
2025-12-15 03:00:07FORECAST20268616628.27428.00428.13968.03178854298800.0530.7130.76TT-3.72656.2747319.2827575342221.721377045990.28076987256289162111122WETL